In the past, I had a well-informed Israeli source who confirmed Israeli participation in assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists and explosions at missile bases. Unfortunately, this source passed away some time ago. So what I write here will be based on informed speculation and circumstantial evidence.
Who gains from the rather spectacular terror attack on two of Iran’s most secure and hallowed institutions: the Majlis and Ayayollah Khomeni’s tomb? Of course ISIS, which has claimed responsibility, and with whom Iran is engaged in a vicious battle in Syria and Iraq. Nominally, that is likely the case. But no terror group, no matter how adept could manage to organize and execute an operation of this sort. It required the help of one or more national intelligence agencies.
Those who have the most to gain and most capability are the Saudis and Israelis. Both hate the Iranians (for different reasons). Since they know they cannot yet sabotage the most important sign of Iranian reconciliation with the west–the P5+1 nuclear deal, the next best thing is a dramatic strike into the heart of Iran itself.
As I wrote in yesterday’s post, Saudi Arabia’s new king and crown prince are hardliners flexing their nation’s military might in Yemen and Syria. Iran is yet another enemy they long to defeat. For this reason, the Gulf states’ newly declared attack and siege against Qatar, due in some measure for its moderate stance regarding Iran, is part and parcel of this hardening of relations in the region. All of which is directed from Riyadh.
More support for the claim of Saudi support, if not direct involvement, comes via this statement from the kingdom’s deputy crown prince:
We won’t wait for the battle to be in Saudi Arabia. Instead, we’ll work so that the battle is for them in Iran,” Salman added.
It’s more than a coincidence that just last month, Voice of Israel’s Persian service went off the air as a result of the transition to a new broadcasting model. Despite the protests of veteran Israeli Persian-hands like Menashe Amir. Yesterday, just hours after the terror attack, the Persian service (which is largely funded by the Israeli defense ministry) suddenly resumed operations. Trust me, developments like that in Israel are not accidental.
Meir Dagan, when he was Mossad chief, told an Israeli interviewer that Israel exploited internal ethnic grievances inside Iran to foment strife and terror attacks. Thus it’s no surprise that, according to Muhammad Sahimi, the attackers in Tehran were reported to be Iranian (Sunni) Kurds who have engaged in attacks against Iranian security forces and nurse longstanding aspirations for independence from Iran.
The MeK has collaborated with the Israelis on those earlier operations. So they are likely to have played a role as well. It retains thousands of secret supporters within Iran who would’ve helped smuggle arms into the country, stashed them once they arrived, located safe houses for the attackers, and helped scout out the targeted sites.
Nor can we discount the newly unleashed terror capabilities of the CIA under its new director of Iran operations, “Ayatollah” Michael D’Andrea. It’s wholly credible that since Trump cannot yet abolish the nuclear deal, that he’s chosen the next best thing: appointing a CIA leader with a “knife in his teeth” primed to shed the blood of Iranians in the streets of Iran.
In terms of who gains, let’s not forget another major beneficiary: Iran’s hardliners in the IRG and clerical class. Their view of the world sees enemies everywhere, especially among Sunni Muslims and the west. Now they can spin a tale of all those parties uniting in desperate measures to spill the blood of Shia martyrs. A perfect script for the conservatives.
But overall, what does this attack gain for anyone involved? Mainly, it serves to unite the anti-Iran coalition. It raises the flag of the rejectionists who see Iran as the ultimate evil. It also strengthens the rejectionists in Iran and weakens the moderates led by newly-reelected Pres. Hassan Rouhani. Though Ayatollah Khamenei’s hand-picked candidate lost badly in the election, the Supreme Leader and his conservative allies will have little trouble arguing that such violence deserves an angry and vengeful response: the opposite of the position the moderates would take.
This attack sets the tone for the coming years: tit-for-tat terror attacks against Iranian and Saudi targets, part of an ongoing intra-Muslim feud that could inflame the entire region, if not the world. With our President doing his level best to pour kerosene on the bonfire.
Those western nations who envision a different future must unite to fight back against this approach. They must produce a moderate, conciliatory policy which eases sanctions, promotes trade and cultural engagement, and establishes a viable alternative to this bloodbath approach. They must act now or face the consequences. Inaction means death.
@Richard
“The MeK has collaborated with the Israelis on those earlier operations. So they are likely to have played a role as well”
Iranian Kurds in the MeK? What rot!
“Iraqi Kurds also claimed the Mojahedin had assisted the Iraqi army in its suppression of the Kurds, ‘a claim-substantiated by refugees who fled near the IranRician border.’”
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/mek-backtalk-iranian-group-214526
Richard. You are violently twisting facts in order to drag Israel into this act of terror. Shame on you.
Shame.
@ Ilene: I never said Iranian Kurds were members, or belonged to MeK. I said they likely worked together in executing this particular terror operation. If there’s enough money involved or political motivation, people will do lots of things they might not ordinarily do.
Get over the drama. If you want to see shame, re-read your hasbara talking points…
Maybe I’m a blithering idiot for asking, but why would the MeK renew terrorism after spending so much time and effort getting their group off the designated terrorist group list?
@ Ilene: The MeK isn’t renewing terrorism. It has been a terror group from its inception & continues to practice terror, as my own Israeli security source has confirmed. As for why they would engage in terror inside Iran: you clearly know nothing about MeK, its history or its mission.
Please learn something about the subjects you comment on before showing how little you know about them.
“The MeK… continues to practice terror, as my own Israeli security source has confirmed. ”
So it should be easy for you, or your Israeli security source, to accurately pinpoint the last time MeK committed a terrorist act.
So please tell us.
@ Ilene: Don’t you even bother to read the post on which you’re commenting? BTW, that is a major comment rule: read the friggin’ post & all articles linked in it before commenting to avoid stupid comments like the one you just published. Now go back & reread the paragraph referring to my source & you will find an answer to your question.
Not to mention that my source only knew about specific MeK terror attacks when they were orchestrated by Israeli intelligence operatives. He did not know about other acts of terror they may’ve done.
If you wish a separate source to confirm such MeK terror read Sy Hersh’s New Yorker article on the subject (use the search box to find a link to it). It confirms MeK operatives were actually trained & equipped by the CIA in orchestrating acts of terror, at a site in Nevada.
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“tit-for-tat terror attacks against Iranian and Saudi targets, part of an ongoing intra-Muslim feud that could inflame the entire region, if not the world”
-so you confirm Iran is engaged in terror attacks? This means they were also the first one to initiate an attack since they got hit last. Your support of this country is very troubling.
Sorry? Could you be a bit more clear?
@ Daniel: I have a major comment rule: the only people who try to put words in my mouth are hasbarists like you. Don’t do it. I can speak for myself. You don’t speak for me. You don’t paraphrase my views. You don’t assume my views.
I said nothing about whether Iran engaged in terror attacks. I said that this terror likely orchestrated by the Saudis will generate a response. “Will” is tge operative word.
As for prior acts of terror: IF Iran has sponsored or aided in such attacks, there is more than enough blame to go around to explain or put those acts into context. Have you forgotten 9/11? Osama bin Laden? The horrific acts of torture by ISIS against innocent civilians in Iraq & Syria?
Not to mention that I detest keeping score as if its a soccer match or baseball game.
As for my alleged “support” for Iran. It’s not that I support the Iranian regime. I wish Iran had a different political system not controlled by theocrats. But I also respect the right of Iran to have the government it chooses, whether I approve of the system or not, since there is at least an element of democracy in it.
Iran’s enemies are far worse.
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