16 thoughts on “Iran’s Attack and Prospects for Regional War – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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  1. Thx for outstanding observations and putting the events in a right perspective … the media have gone bat$hit crazy on incidents, lacking any wisdom of history and facts nor vision for the near future. Only war talk, disinformation and propaganda.

    The Jewish State of Israeli has leaders who choose war over peace, policy v Palestine over the years has substituted Gazans’ burning lampoons for a barrage of 300 slow moving drones and cruise missiles, a few ballistic missiles added. Netanyahu was unable to protect the State, was critically defended by Jordan, US, UK and France. Likely additional support from Germany and The Netherlands. The provocations of fascist state will continue … never lessons learned.

    US Coalition to Defend Israel Complicit in Murder

    It’s time for the ICC to step to the plate and issue arrest warrants .. (long overdue since 2014)

  2. Excellent analysis Richard! I fully agree with you. I shared this with my friends on my email list, and also posted this to my Facebook page. I added this comment.
    “What I am disgusted about is that President Biden did nothing to dissuade Netanyahu from attacking the Iranian consulate in Syria in which 7 people were killed. About 10 days ago, Biden rightfully told Netanyahu that the U.S. may have to cut aid to Israel if Netanyahu attacks Rafah and doesn’t agree to a cease fire. Netanyahu never gave an affirmative response. Before the events of October 7th, Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were proposing a middle east peace conference that would result in a Palestinian state. As of today, those countries state that they will provide aid to such a state and finance the reconstruction of Gaza when this war is over. Netanyahu wants for Israel to occupy Gaza and build Jewish settlements. President Biden won’t be more proactive because unfortunately he is living in the past when the conventional wisdom that the U.S. gives UNCONDITIONAL support to Israel and this “special relationship” with Israel. This is the only issue that can prevent Biden’s re-election and give us Donald Trump again. If Biden won’t get on the ball which is something he should have done YESTERDAY and push for an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement, regardless of what anybody thinks many Arab Americans and young people among others won’t vote for Biden’s re-election. I am among many who want to help Biden. I really don’t want Trump to get to be president again. Unfortunately Biden is making things very difficult for us. And BTW, as I said before as I condemn Netanyahu’s killing of 32,000 and counting Gazans, I also condemn what Hamas did on October 7th as I condemn the killing and maiming of innocent civilians. It’s simply that the U.S. and Israel have the power to settle this conflict.”

    1. As a Palestinian in the diaspora, I want Palestine aligned with BRICS, not Washington, and I nominate China to help rebuild Gaza, not any Arab comprador regimes.

  3. Were nuclear-capable “Avangard” hypersonic glide vehicles used in attack on Nevatim AB in Negev, and not seen by Arrow defense system to protect Dimona nuclear plant?

    Shifting sands of strategic stability: Towards a new arms control agenda

  4. I am surprised that you suggest that Israel fed the Iranians’ “worst impulses”. It seems to me that they had no choice but to respond, but they did so with admirable restraint and shrewd calculation.

  5. Using the narrative of Zelenskyy and Ukraine …

    Geert Wilders: “If Israel falls, we will be next.” [Source: De Telegraaf]

    Speaking in Israel in 2014 …

    “If Jerusalem falls into the hands of the Muslims, Athens and Rome will be next. Thus, Jerusalem is the main front protecting the West. It is not a conflict over territory but rather an ideological battle, between the mentality of the liberated West and the ideology of Islamic barbarism.”

  6. Do you believe Iran has 100,000s ballistic missiles? That should cost about 100 billion USD and will require huge warehouses to store not to mention platforms to fire them.

    As for the drones, those are so slow, an airplane can shoot them with bullets which cost close to nothing. And to assume Iran has 100,000s of them does not seem to be based on anything.

    Iran is at a corner. After over 10 years in which Israel acted as the homeowner in Syria, Iran launched a big attack that summed to Zilch. Hizbollah can harm Israel but in return Lebanon will be transformed back to the Stone Age.

    The Middle East is in a real volatile state. There are no clear winners or losers.

    1. @Arik:

      Do you believe Iran has 100,000s ballistic missiles?

      Hezbollah has 0ver 100,000 alone. Iran has supplied many, if not most of them. Iran has 3,000 ballistic missiles alone. Missiles are its primary means of overall defense. So yes, it likely has several hundred thousand, if not more.

      As for your unsubstantiated claim about the cost of the arsenal, you don’t have a clue. Don’t make numbers up.

      As for drones, they may be slow, but quite a number have successfully penetrated Israeli airspace. One even flew over Dimona. If 10,000 drones target Israel, they can’t shoot all of them down.

      Israel acted as the homeowner in Syria

      Your hasbara is showing. Israel the “homeowner” in Syria? Israel had Islamist allies who controlled small portions of Syria nearest the Golan. That’s it.

      IF Israel provokes Iran and Hezbollah launches a full-scale attack, portions of Israel will be a smoking ruin. It doesn’t matter what Israel does to Lebanon. As far as I’m concerned Israel is a criminal genocidal state. Destroying Lebanon would only prove the point.

      The Middle East is in a real volatile state

      It is. Thanks to Israel and its Chief Enabler, the US.

      You may only post one comment per thread. This was your one comment in this thread.

      1. Unfortunately in recent years the EU has become biased pro-Israel with a number of nations leading: Germany-Hungary-The Netherlands with Mark Rutte and his VVD party. Also Poland, France under Macron and the UK of course have set the tone in disinformation and war rhetoric. Europe under the force of Islamophobia, funded by Israel and its proxies in the US, has turned sharp right into populism edging towards fascism. The MEP elections in June will make this quite clear.

        I am truly shocked by the daily headlines on national news broadcasts, think tanks are a copy of AEI and Hudson Institute, and the newspaper with the largest circulation De Telegraaf support for Geert Wilders. Acts by Israel are applauded for every “terrorist” liquidated. Judgement by the ICJ is rejected. The opposition forces of Iran have gained ground inside Europe. If it will take another genocide or war of choice is of no concern. The EU sees a lot of benefit profit in a war economy similar to the AmericFirst! policy of Trump and emboldened under Biden. Two wars of choice should have been prevented. The EU as a possible contender as an economic force has been eliminated. It’s a two-way horse race between the US and China now. Israel will be a lonely location in coming years …

      2. [comment deleted: I told you you are permitted ONE comment per thread. If you post future comments, remember this rule or you will be moderated. Also publish under a single handle.]

    2. “In return Lebanon will be transformed back to the stone age”

      Why are pro-Israel agitators so obsessed with threatening the total destruction of all civilian infrastructure in the countries they attack on a regular basis?

      Do you think this is a brag? “We’re unrepentant war criminals”?

      Do you think that the Palestinians and Lebanese who you threaten in such a fashion are going to do anything but double down in their armed resistance in response? All you’re really doing is confirming to Palestinians and Lebanese that they’re fighting an existential battle and that there is no point “coming to the table” with a nation that wants to “wipe them out”.

  7. Finland is the first foreign customer for David’s Sling, when “we” decided to choose it as our future high altitude air defence weapon. Now “they” in Finland are pondering in media, that maybe the order was not the most clever decision, because Israel’s ability to deliver the ordered and needed missiles is mildly said suspicious on longer term. First Israel needs all produced missiles themselves, because of their constant wars, secondly the Israeli production factories of those missiles are certainly on the front row of planed targets.

    When an army invests considerable amounts of money (and hopes) to a larger weapon system the timescale of using that system is several decades. Can Israel guaranty any long term supply for the weapons it sells? Will there be Israel in 10 to 20 years? I would not bet very much for that option. Millions of Israelis now ponder “Should we move or atleast send children to study abroad”. After next Iranian attack after Israel’s promised revenge, they will not only ponder, they will act and move.

    1. The commander of Finnish Armed Forces (general Jaakkola) explained just in television about this “problem” with those several weapon systems Finland has bought from Israel. He said:
      * Israel has promised to deliver the ordered systems in time.
      * It is important for us to have security of supply in crisis conditions.
      * If the situation escalates in Middle East it might create delays in the deliveries.
      * If there will start a full war in Israel, we might be forced to change the agreements considering Israel’s needs.
      * We assume that deliveries are made on time.

      The General is a real politician. He only confirmed the problems and dangers in the trade relationship with Israel and its weapons.

      The General has obviously not served in UN troops in Lebanon or Golan. Finland has had for decades, from to 50’s to modern times, UN troops/soldiers in Sinai, Golan and Lebanon. The Finnish soldiers who served there have told, that when we as individuals went to the region first time 95 percent of us had a favourable opinion of Israel and Israelis. When we returned from the service there 95 percent of us of had a complete opposite view.

  8. Cameron met Netanyahu and Herzog alongside German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, who was on her eighth visit to Israel since 7 October hostilities initiated by Hamas.

    As vengeance and retaliation, Israel ventured into a long-time planned ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip and murderous bombardment levelling almost all homes, residential buildings and medical facilities of Palestinians. Not a single educational or UNRWA refugee facility is left functioning. The genocidal acts have so far killed an estimated 34,000 Palestinians and seriously wounded over 75,000. Victims are mainly families, women and children. Israel acts outside of International law and refuses to heed the decisions from the ICJ Court in The Hague or Resolutions by the UN Security Council.

    The ”peaceful” European Union, UK and US have agreed to add tough sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran. Israel gets a free hand to act as they see fit with the burden of escalation put on their allies. These nations are complicit in genocide.

    David Cameron (BreXit PM) was speaking on Wednesday after meeting the Israeli president, Isaac Herzog, in Jerusalem, and is probably the first non-Israeli politician to admit that some kind of Israeli military reprisal is inevitable.

    “It’s clear the Israelis are making a decision to act,” Cameron said. “We hope they do so in a way that does as little to escalate this as possible” and that is “smart as well as tough.” [Source: TOI]

    News headlines are wrong again …

    Baerbock and Cameron in Israel for talks to listen to Israel preaching vengeance

  9. Qatar May quit role as mediator

    After threats of assassinations by Israel and political insults by U.S. politicians on campaign …

    Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani says Doha is reassessing its role as a mediator between Israel and Hamas because its role is being misused by some politicians for their own goals.

    “There are politicians who insult the State of Qatar during their election campaigns. This is unacceptable.”

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