The important story regarding yesterday’s Iranian attack on Israel is not the strike itself, or even Israel’s anticipated response (which is predictable). The key is what happens in the longer term. Given Israel’s penchant for testing and trespassing red lines, will its retaliation lead to yet another Iranian attack? One that is massive and not telegraphed in advance as yesterday’s was? If that happens, Iranian missiles and drones will penetrate Israeli defenses. It’s not a question of whether they will, but rather how many will, what targets they strike and damage they inflict. Then regional war looms.
Israelis are celebrating their “victory” in defending against the barrage yesterday. They believe (falsely) that their integrated defense (Iron Dome, David’s sling, and Arrow 3 anti-missiles) provides virtual invincibility. This, is turn, encourages the military adventurism that led it to destroy the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing two senior IRG generals. A nation (like Israel) that does not fear its enemy is willing to engage in risky behavior.
The history of human warfare is full of such hubris. Israel itself did so in creating the Bar Lev line, which was a set of supposedly impregnable defenses installed to prevent an Egyptian attack in Sinai. In 1973, the latter’s army demolished these defenses and inflicted a major defeat on the IDF. The ensuing war led to 3,000 Israeli dead. It was the gravest military catastrophe since 1948. That is hubris. And that’s what hubris does.
While Israelis bask in their imagined triumph, the Intercept reports that of 330 missiles launched by Iran, half failed during launch or in flight. Of the remaining 160, US forces intercepted half. The UK, French and Jordanians intercepted others. The result is that Israel itself destroyed less than half of the Iranian ordnance; or approximately 50-70 missiles over the course of a two-hour attack.
The Nevatim air base was struck by five missiles and another base by four. The IDF claimed minimal damage. Undoubtedly, because all planes and munitions were moved to protected areas.
Compare this to the thousands of rockets Hamas fired simultaneously on 10/7, which overwhelmed Israeli defenses, and you get a picture of the potential impact of a full-scale Iranian assault.
No matter how much protection Israel’s anti-missile systems provide, they can, and will be overwhelmed in an all-out Iranian attack. Hamas proved that, when it launched thousands of rockets simultaneously on 10/7. Many of them penetrated the anti-missiles defense, which was overwhelmed by sheer numbers, causing extensive damage inside Israel.
Official and unofficial US-Iran back channel diplomacy since the Damascus strike on April 1 helped to prevent this crisis from spiraling out of control.
Consistent messaging across multiple channels clarified each side’s thinking, spelling out intentions and redlines. 1/
— Suzanne DiMaggio (@suzannedimaggio) April 14, 2024
Yesterday’s attack failed to inflict any serious damage on Israel. This was no accident. Iran expected this result. It warned the US in advance of its plans. Unlike Israel, it is exercised calculated restraint. As this Carnegie Endowment analyst notes, it told the US through back-channels what it intended. It negotiated an understanding with the US about what the latter would do in response. Neither Iran nor the US want an escalation that drags either into a regional war.
The same can’t be said for Israel. Its defense minister said explicitly his country was prepared for a “7-front” war. In fact, his proposed plan after 10/7 didn’t call for retaliating against Hamas. It proposed a war against a far more formidable enemy, Hezbollah. His advice was rejected. But it won’t be in the long-run. If/when Iran engages in a massive attack on Israel, Hezbollah will coordinate and participate. Tens of thousands of its missiles and drones combined with hundreds of thousands of Iranian cruise and ballistic missiles will hone in on Israeli targets. Then it will absorb the full power of their blows. The US, UK and France may not be there as they were last night.
Of course, Israel has a massive arsenal at its disposal. It can inflict even greater damage on Iran than vice versa. Then, the question becomes how much, if any restraint the US will impose on Israel. The evidence is not encouraging give the carte blanche Israel received in Gaza. Any serious attack on Iran will inflict massive casualties and seriously damage its military facilities. But unlike Gaza, Iran has a massive array of capabilities. Even if a substantial portion are destroyed, it will still retain formidable military might. And it will be able to restore much of what Israel destroyed given the time to do so. This is precisely what happened after the Stuxnet cyber attack on Iran’s centrifuge arrays. Within months, it had repaired the damage and was using even more advanced centrifuges to produce uranium fuel for a nuclear warhead.
Regarding yesterday’s attack on Israel: according to Israeli media it cost between $1-1.5-billion. And that’s just Israel’s cost. It doesn’t include those of the US, UK and Jordan in shooting down the missiles. In fact, the US destroyed alone nearly 30% of all of them. The costs of the attack to Iran? $250-400-million. 10% of Israel’s cost.
To put these figures into context, Israel’s war in Gaza has cost about $90-billion. But that’s over six months as opposed to last night’s assault. How many more such attacks can it absorb militarily, financially and politically? I assure you that no matter how much firepower Israel brings to bear on Iran, it can absorb more blows than Israel.
An Israeli attack will further strengthen Iran’s rulers. Just as any serious Iranian attack will strengthen the Israeli terrorist regime. In some tragic sense, each country is fueling the worst impulses of the other. Each confirms to their respective publics that a hardline is the only thing protecting the country from its enemies. In Israel’s case, Netanyahu “needs” a state of continual warfare with the country’s enemies. It rallies the nation around him and his government; and also delays any of the criminal cases against him.
If the parties escalate the conflict significantly, the world will be on the precipice–if not over it–of all-out regional war. Anyone who dismisses this possibility is betting against the house. And you know what gamblers say about that.
Note Biden’s message to Iran before it launched its assault: “Don’t!” Hint: they did. Neither Iran nor Israel can be trusted to know when to stop.
The US president urged Netanyahu not to retaliate, saying the solid performance of the multi-national defense operation lessened the need for a military response. Biden clearly doesn’t understand Israeli strategic thinking. Enemies must always be struck with maximum force. Any who raises their head above the parapet must be struck down. There may as well be no Hebrew word for restraint (there is, but it’s always ignored in this context).
Israel will counter-attack. The only question is whether it will be symbolic; or full-force. The latter would demand an Iranian response. And not the restrained one of yesterday. Then, we would be right back where we started, when Israel initiated this tit-for-tat cycle with its Damascus bombing.
It didn’t have to be this way. US-Iran relations could have been significantly different had US presidents taken advantage of various Iranian overtures during the years. Most notably, the Grand Bargain, a comprehensive deal then-Pres. Khatami offered Pres. Bush for full normalization of relations. One of the greatest mistakes of the Bush administration was refusing to even respond to this unprecedented offer. Another was Pres. Biden himself refusing to renew the nuclear deal in the first months of his administration and last few months of Pres. Rouhani’s term in office. The US squandered yet another major opportunity.
If the US had full relations with Iran, it would decrease tensions in the region. It would isolate Israel, to an extent, as a dependent ally during military conflict. A future US president (certainly not this one) could restrain Israel’s penchant for aggression. A normalized relationship with Iran would also add pressure on Israel to accept a tw0-state solution (under duress, not doubt). The entire regional geo-strategic picture would be altered. Instead, because of our poor decision-making, largely caused by domestic political stalemate and Israel Lobby pressure, we face the current predicament.
Next week is Passover which is one week holiday. It simply means: no Israeli attack on Iran in the next of two weeks which will brings us to Israel’s Independence Day. My 3 penny observation is that an Israel revenge should not be expected until 3 weeks time if at all.
— Yossi Melman (@yossi_melman) April 14, 2024
For those looking for a timetable for Israeli retaliation, Yossi Melman undoubtedly is correct that it will not come for another three weeks given the Jewish holiday, Israel Independence Day, and Day of Remembrance (Memorial Day). That brings us to sometime around May 10th or just afterward. Stay tuned.
Thx for outstanding observations and putting the events in a right perspective … the media have gone bat$hit crazy on incidents, lacking any wisdom of history and facts nor vision for the near future. Only war talk, disinformation and propaganda.
The Jewish State of Israeli has leaders who choose war over peace, policy v Palestine over the years has substituted Gazans’ burning lampoons for a barrage of 300 slow moving drones and cruise missiles, a few ballistic missiles added. Netanyahu was unable to protect the State, was critically defended by Jordan, US, UK and France. Likely additional support from Germany and The Netherlands. The provocations of fascist state will continue … never lessons learned.
US Coalition to Defend Israel Complicit in Murder
It’s time for the ICC to step to the plate and issue arrest warrants .. (long overdue since 2014)
Excellent analysis Richard! I fully agree with you. I shared this with my friends on my email list, and also posted this to my Facebook page. I added this comment.
“What I am disgusted about is that President Biden did nothing to dissuade Netanyahu from attacking the Iranian consulate in Syria in which 7 people were killed. About 10 days ago, Biden rightfully told Netanyahu that the U.S. may have to cut aid to Israel if Netanyahu attacks Rafah and doesn’t agree to a cease fire. Netanyahu never gave an affirmative response. Before the events of October 7th, Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were proposing a middle east peace conference that would result in a Palestinian state. As of today, those countries state that they will provide aid to such a state and finance the reconstruction of Gaza when this war is over. Netanyahu wants for Israel to occupy Gaza and build Jewish settlements. President Biden won’t be more proactive because unfortunately he is living in the past when the conventional wisdom that the U.S. gives UNCONDITIONAL support to Israel and this “special relationship” with Israel. This is the only issue that can prevent Biden’s re-election and give us Donald Trump again. If Biden won’t get on the ball which is something he should have done YESTERDAY and push for an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement, regardless of what anybody thinks many Arab Americans and young people among others won’t vote for Biden’s re-election. I am among many who want to help Biden. I really don’t want Trump to get to be president again. Unfortunately Biden is making things very difficult for us. And BTW, as I said before as I condemn Netanyahu’s killing of 32,000 and counting Gazans, I also condemn what Hamas did on October 7th as I condemn the killing and maiming of innocent civilians. It’s simply that the U.S. and Israel have the power to settle this conflict.”
As a Palestinian in the diaspora, I want Palestine aligned with BRICS, not Washington, and I nominate China to help rebuild Gaza, not any Arab comprador regimes.
Were nuclear-capable “Avangard” hypersonic glide vehicles used in attack on Nevatim AB in Negev, and not seen by Arrow defense system to protect Dimona nuclear plant?
Shifting sands of strategic stability: Towards a new arms control agenda
I am surprised that you suggest that Israel fed the Iranians’ “worst impulses”. It seems to me that they had no choice but to respond, but they did so with admirable restraint and shrewd calculation.
@Huw: I agree about Iran showing restraint & careful calculation. I only wish Israel had done the same. But of course given its government that would be impossible.
Using the narrative of Zelenskyy and Ukraine …
Geert Wilders: “If Israel falls, we will be next.” [Source: De Telegraaf]
https://twitter.com/telegraaf/status/1779806256456179795
Speaking in Israel in 2014 …
“If Jerusalem falls into the hands of the Muslims, Athens and Rome will be next. Thus, Jerusalem is the main front protecting the West. It is not a conflict over territory but rather an ideological battle, between the mentality of the liberated West and the ideology of Islamic barbarism.”
Do you believe Iran has 100,000s ballistic missiles? That should cost about 100 billion USD and will require huge warehouses to store not to mention platforms to fire them.
As for the drones, those are so slow, an airplane can shoot them with bullets which cost close to nothing. And to assume Iran has 100,000s of them does not seem to be based on anything.
Iran is at a corner. After over 10 years in which Israel acted as the homeowner in Syria, Iran launched a big attack that summed to Zilch. Hizbollah can harm Israel but in return Lebanon will be transformed back to the Stone Age.
The Middle East is in a real volatile state. There are no clear winners or losers.
@Arik:
Hezbollah has 0ver 100,000 alone. Iran has supplied many, if not most of them. Iran has 3,000 ballistic missiles alone. Missiles are its primary means of overall defense. So yes, it likely has several hundred thousand, if not more.
As for your unsubstantiated claim about the cost of the arsenal, you don’t have a clue. Don’t make numbers up.
As for drones, they may be slow, but quite a number have successfully penetrated Israeli airspace. One even flew over Dimona. If 10,000 drones target Israel, they can’t shoot all of them down.
Your hasbara is showing. Israel the “homeowner” in Syria? Israel had Islamist allies who controlled small portions of Syria nearest the Golan. That’s it.
IF Israel provokes Iran and Hezbollah launches a full-scale attack, portions of Israel will be a smoking ruin. It doesn’t matter what Israel does to Lebanon. As far as I’m concerned Israel is a criminal genocidal state. Destroying Lebanon would only prove the point.
It is. Thanks to Israel and its Chief Enabler, the US.
You may only post one comment per thread. This was your one comment in this thread.
Unfortunately in recent years the EU has become biased pro-Israel with a number of nations leading: Germany-Hungary-The Netherlands with Mark Rutte and his VVD party. Also Poland, France under Macron and the UK of course have set the tone in disinformation and war rhetoric. Europe under the force of Islamophobia, funded by Israel and its proxies in the US, has turned sharp right into populism edging towards fascism. The MEP elections in June will make this quite clear.
I am truly shocked by the daily headlines on national news broadcasts, think tanks are a copy of AEI and Hudson Institute, and the newspaper with the largest circulation De Telegraaf support for Geert Wilders. Acts by Israel are applauded for every “terrorist” liquidated. Judgement by the ICJ is rejected. The opposition forces of Iran have gained ground inside Europe. If it will take another genocide or war of choice is of no concern. The EU sees a lot of
benefitprofit in a war economy similar to the AmericFirst! policy of Trump and emboldened under Biden. Two wars of choice should have been prevented. The EU as a possible contender as an economic force has been eliminated. It’s a two-way horse race between the US and China now. Israel will be a lonely location in coming years …[comment deleted: I told you you are permitted ONE comment per thread. If you post future comments, remember this rule or you will be moderated. Also publish under a single handle.]
“In return Lebanon will be transformed back to the stone age”
Why are pro-Israel agitators so obsessed with threatening the total destruction of all civilian infrastructure in the countries they attack on a regular basis?
Do you think this is a brag? “We’re unrepentant war criminals”?
Do you think that the Palestinians and Lebanese who you threaten in such a fashion are going to do anything but double down in their armed resistance in response? All you’re really doing is confirming to Palestinians and Lebanese that they’re fighting an existential battle and that there is no point “coming to the table” with a nation that wants to “wipe them out”.
Finland is the first foreign customer for David’s Sling, when “we” decided to choose it as our future high altitude air defence weapon. Now “they” in Finland are pondering in media, that maybe the order was not the most clever decision, because Israel’s ability to deliver the ordered and needed missiles is mildly said suspicious on longer term. First Israel needs all produced missiles themselves, because of their constant wars, secondly the Israeli production factories of those missiles are certainly on the front row of planed targets.
When an army invests considerable amounts of money (and hopes) to a larger weapon system the timescale of using that system is several decades. Can Israel guaranty any long term supply for the weapons it sells? Will there be Israel in 10 to 20 years? I would not bet very much for that option. Millions of Israelis now ponder “Should we move or atleast send children to study abroad”. After next Iranian attack after Israel’s promised revenge, they will not only ponder, they will act and move.
The commander of Finnish Armed Forces (general Jaakkola) explained just in television about this “problem” with those several weapon systems Finland has bought from Israel. He said:
* Israel has promised to deliver the ordered systems in time.
* It is important for us to have security of supply in crisis conditions.
* If the situation escalates in Middle East it might create delays in the deliveries.
* If there will start a full war in Israel, we might be forced to change the agreements considering Israel’s needs.
* We assume that deliveries are made on time.
The General is a real politician. He only confirmed the problems and dangers in the trade relationship with Israel and its weapons.
The General has obviously not served in UN troops in Lebanon or Golan. Finland has had for decades, from to 50’s to modern times, UN troops/soldiers in Sinai, Golan and Lebanon. The Finnish soldiers who served there have told, that when we as individuals went to the region first time 95 percent of us had a favourable opinion of Israel and Israelis. When we returned from the service there 95 percent of us of had a complete opposite view.
Cameron met Netanyahu and Herzog alongside German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, who was on her eighth visit to Israel since 7 October hostilities initiated by Hamas.
As vengeance and retaliation, Israel ventured into a long-time planned ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip and murderous bombardment levelling almost all homes, residential buildings and medical facilities of Palestinians. Not a single educational or UNRWA refugee facility is left functioning. The genocidal acts have so far killed an estimated 34,000 Palestinians and seriously wounded over 75,000. Victims are mainly families, women and children. Israel acts outside of International law and refuses to heed the decisions from the ICJ Court in The Hague or Resolutions by the UN Security Council.
The ”peaceful” European Union, UK and US have agreed to add tough sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran. Israel gets a free hand to act as they see fit with the burden of escalation put on their allies. These nations are complicit in genocide.
David Cameron (BreXit PM) was speaking on Wednesday after meeting the Israeli president, Isaac Herzog, in Jerusalem, and is probably the first non-Israeli politician to admit that some kind of Israeli military reprisal is inevitable.
News headlines are wrong again …
Baerbock and Cameron in Israel
for talksto listen to Israel preaching vengeanceQatar May quit role as mediator
After threats of assassinations by Israel and political insults by U.S. politicians on campaign …