16 thoughts on “Gaza Ceasefire: Exercise in Hope or Futility? – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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  1. The proposed deal is a two stage deal, the first, seemingly agreed upon, includes the release of 33 hostages, and on the 16th day to negotiate further releases of the remaining 65 hostages and final status.
    I think the whole deal will break down when it turns out that Hamas or Jihad ‘can’t find’ all the hostages or has killed more than previously thought. This will ignite Israeli bipartizan anger against both Bibi and Hamas, as the return of ALL the hostages is central to the Israeli agreeing upon any future for Gaza.
    That will unfortunately return the status to pre 7/10 as regarding any future. Hamas will remain in charge, rearm and retunnel and attack Israeli towns, Israel will continue incursions and bombing.
    Business as usual, a waste of thousands of lives and no solution.

    1. @ Shmuel:

      The proposed deal is a two stage deal

      No, it’s not. It’s a 3 stage deal. FOllow the link in my post. That document was translated from Arabic and details 3 stages.

      I think the whole deal will break down Hamas or Jihad ‘can’t find’ all the hostages or has killed more than previously thought.

      And we care what you think because?? And you’re an expert on what is happening in Gaza or Hamas or IJ or Israeli intelligence because?? There may be hostages who are dead whose bodies cannot be released–because they’re under rubble created by IDF bombing. We already know the IDF killed hostages. But those are only the ones it admitted killing. There are undoubtedly many others it also killed but hasn’t confirmed. It’s ludicrous to claim the Palestinians have killed hostages after 10/7. They are the most valuable assets they have.

      Israeli agreeing upon any future for Gaza.

      You mean Israel is going to destroy Gaza’s future? LIke it hasn’t destroyed its past & present? HOw will it do that? By eliminating every man, woman, child, building, street? Even the air, water and soil?

      Business as usual, a waste of thousands of lives and no solution.

      On this we agree. One of the rare times, but you are right on this point.

      1. ” It’s ludicrous to claim the Palestinians have killed hostages after 10/7. They are the most valuable assets they have.”

        Hamas has definately killed some hostages deliberately – for example, 6 were killed by shooting hours before troops reached them last summer, including Hersh.
        Agreed that some hostages were killed by Israeli bombing, but seeing that Hamas refuses to release lists of hostages or allow Red Cross visitation no noe knows numbers.

        You of course have every right to disregard what I think, and I am no expert, just an average Israeli who follows the news from many sides. But I think you may have underestimated in your article how the hostage return is absolutely central in Israeli eyes and will be be the make or break for the end of hostilities or continuous war in Gaza.

      2. ‘You mean Israel is going to destroy Gaza’s future? LIke it hasn’t destroyed its past & present? HOw will it do that? By eliminating every man, woman, child, building, street? Even the air, water and soil?’

        Israel will make the rubble bounce. Twice-bounced rubble is much more rubbley than once-bounced rubble.

  2. Richard what you say may very well be right, but might Trump as president order Netanyahu to go along with such a deal? Trump likes Saudi Arabia’s MBS. With his ego, Trump who has no principals, might want for this deal to be adopted and he could say that he settled the Israel Palestine conflict. He could be hoping to get the Nobel prize. Now I’m not saying all this will happen and I sure as hell wouldn’t bet money on it.

  3. Great article! It really shows how little “Bloody Blinken, Secretary of Genocide” cared about a ceasefire in Gaza. However, it must be said that, even if a ceasefire deal is agreed and implemented in Gaza, it will not automatically end the Middle East crisis. First of all, Syria is a ticking bomb. Secondly, as I reported in my latest article in the link below, while Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is facilitating the ceasefire negotiations in Doha (Qatar), “Trump’s incoming Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg, who is supposed to be negotiating peace with Russia, is instead thinking about preparing for a war against Iran” and in Paris he gave a speech to the Iranian opposition group National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the political arm of the Iranian terrorist organization called Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK): https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/bloody-blinken-secretary-of-genocide?r=25fc37

  4. Thanks Richard .. an excellent overview as always …

    Some caveats …

    “Refugees would return to their homes.”
    … excusez-moi, quelles maisons ?

    The humanitarian goods will come across the Rafah crossing from Egypt … unimpeded

    Egypt prepares for Rafah crossing reopening amid Gaza ceasefire progress
    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202501/14/WS6785bbbea310f1265a1da9b8.html

    As I wrote over a year ago … the Egyptian hard stance was to build the fence to “prevent” Israel and the US to dump the Gazans outside of Palestinian territory. [Philadelphi corridor] Sisi held firm.

    What role does China still play in the shadows to unite the Arab front with Iran?

    The Saudi Kingdom has regained its foothold in Lebanon … think Hariri 2005.

    MBS is still subjected to the King and his court of advisors. No normalization with the Jewish State until a definite path to a Palestinian State. Trying to keep UAE on board which has a perfide history in its relation to Palestinians, willing to work hand in glove with Israeli intelligence at all levels.

    In this existential war for Palestinian statehood, New Syria will not be a Western ally … the strength lies with Türkiye and Qatar. The HTS group cannot change its roots in Al Qaeda and Jabhat al-Nusra. In the long term, Israel too will have lost and is at the mercy of its neighbours. Take it or leave it.

    The Arab League of nations have shown unity with the OIC organization of all Islamic states including Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Southern part of Philippines.

    Extraordinary Summit Between the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Arab League Calls for Embargo Against Israel

    https://www.spa.gov.sa/en/N1996072

  5. “This is the definition of a pathological state steeped in delusions and led by Emperors with leaderless armies, shouting commands into the wind.”

    For a moment I thought you were describing the US/EU and NATO …

  6. A senior aide told Israeli media that Netanyahu was not formally invited to US President-Elect Trump’s inauguration on 20 January.

    Did Bibi cancel his trip to the US after Trump tweeted the truth about Israel from Jeffrey Sachs?
    https://www.newarab.com/news/israels-netanyahu-not-formally-invited-trumps-inauguration

    Bibi can always hide behind a ICC lie of course.

    Israeli Prime Minister not going to 80th anniversary of Auschwitz liberation, even though Poland promises not to arrest him
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/politicians-wont-be-allowed-to-make-speeches-at-ceremony-for-80th-anniversary-of-auschwitzs-liberation/

  7. …absolutely central in Israeli eyes and will be be the make or break for the end of hostilities or continuous war in Gaza

    9/11 didn’t happen in a vacuum, neither did 10/7. Mr. security has failed in his primary task to keep Israel safe … as the fate of Palestinians was oppressed year after year … all options to sign peace treaties were squandered by leaders in general … the best security is peace … Bibi had a trauma of the loss of Yoni in the Entebbe raid … he wanted to fulfill the Zionist dream of his father and Jabotinsky … Israel’s security and the Iron dome were always vulnerable as weapons became more sophisticated at a lower cost. All is left for PMO is Hasbara … yet that alone will not be convincing in 2025. The legacy of Bibi is in the person and character of Jair.

    https://besacenter.org/netanyahu-jabotinsky-begin-ben-gurion/

    Revenge is a poor guide to live in a hostile world. Hate is more destructive than weapons of war.

  8. I seriously doubt Israel is capable of keeping its word on any agreement; It never did so in the past. One interesting thing you said was that things will return to “Status quo ante” and that “will throw up their hands and exclaim: we tried.”. I am sure that will happen but I am also sure that PALESTINIANS will be held responsible for things breaking down and we will be back to “poor little IsraeL, defending itself”.

    Shmuel made an interesting if blind, comment, “Hamas will remain in charge, rearm and retunnel and attack Israeli towns,”
    Do Israeli Jews and their supporters really believe they can occupy, humiliate, slaughter and dispossess the people living on a land, call it their own and not expect the natives to resist?
    Israel has created a fait accompli where a two-state “solution” is impossible and with the deep, cultural, cultivated, hate against Palestinians, a one-state is not likely either. Unless this situation changes, there will be a “Forever War”. Israelis can continue to kill Palestinians, but they should not expect “Peace” as they would like to define it.
    South Africa did not change until Western support disappeared; That precondition is the same with Israel as well.

    1. Balance of power for peace and security …

      Rising Turkish Influence in Syria: A National Security Concern

      https://jcpa.org/turkeys-new-threat-to-israel/

      The report underscores the potential for new threats to Israel stemming from Syria’s changing landscape. It highlights the possibility of an extremist Syrian regime with an anti-Israel ideology replacing Assad’s government.

      This scenario, the report warns, could be even more dangerous than the Iranian threat, given Syria’s geographic proximity and strategic significance. Turkish military presence and political ambitions in Syria …

    2. “Do Israeli Jews and their supporters really believe they can occupy, humiliate, slaughter and dispossess the people living on a land, call it their own and not expect the natives to resist?” They have believed this for 76 years or more. Why would they change now? What happened on 10/7 wont happen again, because the IDF have started thinking how to deal with that specific situation in the future, they are not completely stupid. However you are right Palestinians will continually demand that they have rights. The question for the next four years is, “Does Trump care?” Trump does not want genocide and war on his watch, but democracy for Palestinians is a different matter.

      1. Palestinians are right to demand their rights, will continue to fight for them, and continue to reject the West projecting its historic guilt on them.

  9. As negotiations are proceeding during and after the 1st phase … the ceasefire will endure in the deal … intent to become permanent.

    ”Abraham Accords, Peace and Security”

    Interview on Al Jazeera this morning … Alon Liel hinted at the deal behind the scenes between Trump and Netanyahu … free hand in building settlements on the West Bank (and perhaps border adjustments Southern Lebanon and Syria) ⁉️

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