Ceasefire Deal: How Long Before Israel Breaks It?

While it’s wonderful news that hostages will be released both by Israel and Hamas, the devil is in the details.  The agreement has multiple moving parts and if either side refuses to honor any one of them, it will compromise the entire plan.  Israel, as I note below, has ample history of doing exactly that in past deals.  So we will have to see what transpires with ‘hope in our hearts’ and a healthy dose of skepticism.  Haaretz reports: “Qatar will continue to work with Egypt and the U.S. to ensure the implementation of the deal between Israel and Hamas.”  But it’s unclear what leverage Qatar or the other two parties have to enforce Hamas and Israel’s obligations under its terms.

Biden addressed the nation saying that today’s ceasefire deal is the same one he proposed last May.  While he may be trying to take credit for this, it rather attests to how pathetic his influence was in being unable to make it happen.  He had no leverage. At least none he was willing to use.  And that is not only pathetic, but almost criminal. He could have forced the end of hostilities eight months ago, and 10,000 Palestinians, 200 or so IDF soldiers and ten or more hostages need not have died in the interim.

Zvi Barel writes cynically, but presciently in Haaretz, that if Netanyahu were serious about the hostage exchange, he could have signed a single comprehensive deal implemented all at once; instead of one with three stages:

…The process of dragging out the deal via multiple stages indicates bad faith [on Israel’s part]…Thus, the dream of colonizing Gaza remains alive and well.  They’re only delayed it by a few weeks [till the end of phase one]…Israel should prepare for a scenario in which the exchange of the 33 Israeli hostages [in the first round] will lead to resumption of the war of elimination in Gaza. The lives of the remaining hostages will become collateral damage, peripheral to the greater vision.

Such a creaky arrangement begs for misunderstanding and recrimination by Netanyahu for certain (and Hamas possibly).  Its parameters offer ample opportunity to violate or cancel it at any one of the stages as Barel notes (and as I warned here).

According to Ynet’s Ronen Bergman who is close to Mossad sources, Pres. Trump has made commitments to Netanyahu to entice him to seal the deal. It’s a veritable potpourri of goodies sure to tempt him.  Perhaps not at the level of the Cohiba cigars (for him) and pink Champagne (for her) offered by Arnon Milchan. But enticing nonetheless.  As you read the following, keep in mind that Bergman is quoting mainly Israeli sources who are presenting their own self-interested narrative.

He notes the ambiguity of wording in the agreement concerning ending of hostilities.  It brings the viability of the entire agreement into question. While Hamas has demanded a complete end to the fighting, Israel has resisted.  The agreement calls for “the end of fighting” or “the end of attacks,” without explicitly calling for the end of the war.   Israel may, Bergman points out, interpret the omission of a call for the end of the war, as permitting resumption of combat when it’s suitable. Of course, this directly contradicts provisions of the agreement. But Israel has never been one to let mere facts get in the way of pursuing its interests.

Trump, according to Bergman’s “trusted source” (who may be Ron Dermer) offered Bibi a get out of jail free card: he will support Israel if it decides to resume fighting, even though this would violate terms of the agreement.  This of course, renders the deal virtually meaningless.  As Barel says, it means the first stage will happen and succeed in freeing 33 Israeli hostages. The remaining ones, mostly IDF soldiers and hostages’ bodies, will rot in Gaza till Hell freezes over.

Bergman suggests there may be more goodies for NSO Group and its cyber-weapon, Pegasus.  The shady company has been mortally wounded by US sanctions after one of its clients (possibly Saudi Arabia) used a Whatsapp vulnerability to spy on 1,400 users.  Now, Bergman touts the prospect of a Trump White House lifting those sanctions so NSO can resume spying on journalist, human rights activists and even school teachers at the hands of authoritarian (and democratic) regimes around the world.

Bergman’s encomiums to NSO could even be PR ad copy:

Now that Trump is back in office, we can assumed that the administration will forget the critical part [US sanctions], and perhaps adopt the same measures itself [using spyware to attack government enemies], not to mention allowing Israel and the NSO to play a central role in international diplomacy again.

Bergman is touting a wretched company whose technology was used to murder Jamal Khashoggi and other journalists.  He wants Trump let NSO return to the marketplace so it can redouble its efforts to sabotage democracy and attack democracy activists the world over.  Why be a journalist when you can be a pitchman for a company bringing suffering and misery to decent honorable people?

Trump has agreed to remove US sanctions imposed by the Biden administration against several settler thugs who’ve led some of he most violent pogroms in the West Bank.  Not that the sanctions were either effective or meaningful.  Settlers skirted them easily and they became heroes in the eyes of the Judeo-terrorist movement. When Biden announced he was going to sanction an IDF battalion consisting of settler soldiers known for their violence against Palestinians, the president almost immediately backtracked. This proved that the sanctions were essentially cosmetic and toothless.

The incoming president has also agreed, according to Bergman, to go to war against the ICC, which has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former defense minister, Yoav Gallant. Israel also fears that IDF officers will also be targeted when they travel abroad, for committing war crimes in Gaza.  Trump has offered to support Israel’s efforts to protect them.

The ceasefire deal, for which Trump is campaigning for a Nobel Peace Prize, promises to be a cosmetic agreement which relieves pressure on the Trump and Netanyahu to get the hostages released, while failing to end the Gaza genocide.