Earlier this week, Pres. Trump announced with great fanfare that Hamas had agreed to disarm as the next part of the “20-point peace plan.” He had originally unveiled it at the inauguration of his Board of Peace, which was designated to implement a more comprehensive peace agreement. While the media focused on the disarmament provision of the new agreement, it barely noted the corresponding obligation Israel had (supposedly) accepted: to withdraw its forces from Gaza and cease all hostile action. There was barely a whisper of skepticism in the reporting concerning Israel’s likely refusal fulfill its obligation. The president’s announcement was taken as a done-deal. Little consideration was given to how these two obligations were to happen.
There were even stories about the expected following stage, when various peacekeeping forces would enter Gaza and provide security, as well as ensure that Hamas would not rearm or attempt to maintain political control there. The reports even named Indonesia, Morocco and Uganda as participants, though the total number of troops would only be 200. It’s difficult to see how such a small force could police 2.5-million people.
In the past 48 hours, Israel has offered its response. It would be breathtaking if it wasn’t so -on-brand:
Israel demands freedom to strike areas of the Gaza Strip set to be handed over to a…International Stabilization Force under the…agreement between Hamas and U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace…Israel also insists that weapons collected from Hamas during its disarmament process be destroyed…According to the roadmap…approved by Hamas, the group’s arms would be rounded up but would remain in the hands of the NCAG [interim government]…Thirdly, Israel wants to rule out the involvement of mediators Qatar and Turkey…
The plan calls for an international security force to maintain order during the transition period. Netanyahu has just announced that he plans to bomb the areas in which these troops are deployed. What country would agree to such terms? Which is just the outcome he expected.
The final nail in the coffin is Netanyahu’s announced refusal to withdraw Israeli forces from Gaza, in direct contravention of the 20 point peace plan. This is characteristic of Israel’s acting by-fiat. None of the three demands above appear in the original 20-point peace plan. Israel is merely relitigating the plan in an attempt to sabotage it. It is now dead in the water, as anyone should and could have predict.
Additionally, even if Israel does withdraw its forces, it will still control virtually everything that happens there:
Israel’s security cabinet had approved the key legal measures and that the force would operate “in full coordination with” the Israeli military…Israel dictates who can and cannot enter the Gaza Strip, along with how much aid and food can enter…The ISF [International Stabilization Force] will operate in the areas that are not under Israeli control.
Israel currently occupies 70% of Gaza. If we assume that Israel will not withdraw, then what role can the ISF play in Gaza? Even if it partially withdraws, it will leave the organization with a confused and ill-conceived mandate. Further, what Palestinian would agree to such humiliating terms? As a result, it seems a recipe for failure.
Trump’s peace plan: attempt to stave off November bloodbath
After many months of inaction, why has Trump announced this deal now? Clearly, his presidency is at a low point. The war against Iran is floundering. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and impending closing of the Baab al-Mandab Strait, international trade has been strangled. The US economy is stagnant with GDP growth at a measly 1.5%, inflation at 3.3% (higher than the Fed benchmark of 2%), and added an anemic 57,000 jobs in June. The candidate who ran on a platform promising prosperity and lower inflation has done none of these things.
The coming midterm elections promise to be a bloodbath. Trump seems helpless to stop it. Thus, he’s flailing around for a life jacket. One issue has been election fraud and his SAVE act, which is dead in the water in Congress. Another is Gaza. The president went to the well on this one before when he negotiated a ceasefire, the freedom of the Israeli captives and the formation of the Board of Peace. He basked in the applause and practically demanded a Nobel Peace Prize, which was not forthcoming.
The latest agreement, when it fails, still gives Trump a few days or weeks of good press; something he desperately needs. But it will not resolve anything. There will be no progress because Israel does not want it. Netanyahu wants to string out the slaughter in Gaza through the upcoming October elections. One should never underestimate the political value for Israel of dead Palestinians.
Finally, the derogatory comments by Trump and Vice President Vance concerning Israel’s opposition to the ceasefire deal with Iran, give the Israeli leader added impetus to sabotage the Gaza deal.
