
UPDATE: This post was published yesterday, before the formal confirmation of the hostage deal. While it’s wonderful news that hostages will be released both by Israel and Hamas, the devil is in the details. The agreement has multiple moving parts and if either side refuses to honor any one of them, it will compromise the entire plan. Israel, as I note below, has ample history of doing exactly that in past deals. So we will have to see what transpires with ‘hope in our hearts’ and a healthy dose of skepticism. Haaretz reports: “Qatar will continue to work with Egypt and the U.S. to ensure the implementation of the deal between Israel and Hamas.” But it’s unclear what leverage Qatar or the other two parties have to enforce Hamas and Israel’s obligations under its terms.
Biden addressed the nation saying that today’s ceasefire deal is the same one he proposed last May. While he may be trying to take credit for this, it rather attests to how pathetic his influence was in being unable to make it happen. He had no leverage. At least none he was willing to use. And that is not only pathetic, but almost criminal. He could have forced the end of hostilities eight months ago, and 10,000 Palestinians, 200 or so IDF soldiers and ten or more hostages need not have died in the interim.
Zvi Barel writes cynically, but presciently in Haaretz, that if Netanyahu were serious about the hostage exchange, he could have signed a single comprehensive deal implemented all at once; instead of one with three stages:
…The process of dragging out the deal via multiple stages indicates bad faith [on Israel’s part]…Thus, the dream of colonizing Gaza remains alive and well. They’re only delayed it by a few weeks [till the end of phase one]…Israel should prepare for a scenario in which the exchange of the 33 Israeli hostages [in the first round] will lead to resumption of the war of elimination in Gaza. The lives of the remaining hostages will become collateral damage, peripheral to the greater vision.
Such a creaky arrangement begs for misunderstanding and recrimination by Netanyahu for certain (and Hamas possibly). Its parameters offer ample opportunity to violate or cancel it at any one of the stages as Barel notes (and as I warned here).
* *
After he won the November election, Donald Trump made what appeared to be an impossibly bold statement. He said that he wanted all the hostages home from Gaza by January 20th “or there would be hell to pay.” After getting up from the floor, his audience, the American public assumed he was threatening Hamas. In fact, that is the way he articulated his threat.

But it turns out that he meant to include Bibi Netanyahu in that threat. He understood that the main stumbling block to a ceasefire over the past months has not been Hamas, but Bibi. Trump appointed a fellow real estate tycoon with no diplomatic experience, Steve Witkoff, as his Middle East advisor. It appears to be the best appointment he has made thus far, though that is a very low bar. Witkoff promptly left for Qatar and jumpstarted negotiations which had been stalled, typically, by Netanyahu.
When a roadblock came up, instead of sitting back and throwing up his hands as Biden and his Secretary of State, Antony Blinken did, Witkoff got on the phone, and told Netanyahu’s advisors he was flying to Israel and expected a metting with the PM. As Haaretz tells it, Bibi’s staff told him it was Shabbat and observance of the day prevents business meetings. Trump’s advisor said the equivalent of “fuck that. I’m coming. I don’t give a crap what day of the week it is. You tell him to be there.” And that’s precisely what happened. He and Bibi met, and before you knew it rumors started flying that a ceasefire was in the works and imminent.
There are of course, still some obstables. Israel claims, as it has repeatedly, that the problem lies with Hamas, which has not yet approved a deal. Given Israel’s past history of refusing and/or violating such deals, I doubt that is the case. Netanyahu has sabotaged countless previous deals and is still trying to sabotage this one:
…Netanyahu attempted to sabotage the deal and delay its progress at the last minute by insisting that Israeli soldiers held hostage by Hamas be included in the list of 33 hostages to be released in the first phase of the agreement.
There are Israeli and Palestinian versions of the terms. As they say, the devil is in the details and these discrepancies could still derail the process. The main provisions are:
In the first general stage, the IDF will withdraw from population centers to the perimeter, where its primary purpose will be to defend Israeli settlements adjacent to Gaza. Refugees would return to their homes.
Hamas would initiate a staged release of a total of 33 hostages. In return, Israel would release Palestinian prisoners. Some sources say “more than 1,000.” Palestinian sources offer a significantly higher number. Israel agrees not to rearrest released prisoners under the same charges it originally arrested them. Israel will also remove all draconian conditions and penalties imposed on Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons after 10/7.
The exchange procedure would be dependent on Israeli withdrawal:
‘It] is linked to the extent of commitment to the terms of the agreement, including the cessation of mutual military operations, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, the return of displaced persons, and the entry of humanitarian aid.
The general terms of the first stage are a series of hostage releases followed by progressive withdrawal of Israeli forces from different areas of Gaza. On the first day, 600 truckloads of humanitarian aid would enter daily (pre-10/7 average was 500). This would include food, medicine and fuel to operate the power station water treatment plants, and equipment necessary to clear rubble, and rehabilitate critical infrastructure like hospitals and bakeries. Supplies necessary to provide shelter for refugees whose homes were destroyed, including hundreds of thousands of tents and temporary housing would enter.
Various countries, including Qatar, Egypt and NGOs would begin to develop reconstruction plans and provide compensation to those displaced by the war. UN agencies including UNWRA would be permitted to conduct their operations without hindrance. This, of course, contradicts a new Israeli law prohibiting the latter’s humanitarian work in areas under Israeli control (which includes Gaza). If Israel refuses to permit UNWRA to function, this could conceivably unravel of the entire ceasefire program.
Gaza would begin a process of restoring critical infrastructure:
…Including electricity, water, sewage, communications, and roads in all areas of the Gaza Strip, introducing the necessary equipment for civil defense and removing rubble and debris…
The final stage would involve the exchange of bodies by both sides. It would end all hostilities and lift the siege of Gaza. This has been a major sticking point for previous rounds of negotiations, in which Netanyahu insisted that the ceasefire was to be temporary. It appears, if he honors it, that the agreement signals a complete end of the war.
If, during the process outlined above–or at the end of all the stages of the agreement—Israel resumes fighting, then the deal will collapse. This has happened in the past regarding multiple ceasefire deals. If I were a betting man, I’d wager that Israel backtracks on this. Then we’re back to square one, which suits Israeli interests just fine (apparently).
Will Trump force Israel to honor its commitments if it does violate the terms? I wouldn’t bet on that either, as his only concern is ending the fighting so that it doesn’t mar his inauguration. What happens after that would hardly bother him.
Any agreement Netanyahu signs will arouse fury among his rejectionist coalition partners, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir. There are already rumblings they will oppose it, and possibly bolt from the government. That would, in turn, topple it and bring new elections. Netanyahu’s popularity is lower than it’s ever been thanks to his instransigence opposing a prisoner exchange. 70% of Israelis want him to resign after the war. 43% want him to resign now. Though he’s almost always managed to pull a rabbit out of a hat to win previous election campaigns, the chances of doing it this time would appear low.

Smotrich and Ben Gvir will have to determine what new elections would hold for their parties. Opinion is so high against the government’s stance on negotiations, the chances are they prefer to avoid elections. Though their MKs may be so entrenched in their anti-deal positions that the two ex-terrorists, now statesmen would be forced to quit. Alternatively, they could vote against the deal, but not quit the coalition. The Opposition will certainly approve the deal. So the votes of the far-right parties will be unnecessary to approve it.
Blinken’s post-war plan
The Biden administration performed disastrously since 10/7. Every element of its plans for resumption of humanitarian aid, prisoner exchanges and ceasefires, failed. Not to mention that it provided $26-billion of its most lethal weapons arsenal, to slaughter as many as 200,000 Gaza civilians. Biden lost the election, at least in part due to disquiet among the Demcoratic faithful, who voted with their feet by not showing up at the polls.
So it’s somewhat of an irony that Secretary of State Blinken has announced a comprehensive post-war governance plan for Gaza. During the speech at which he presented it, he was drowned out by protesters who shouted, “Bloody Blinken.” An inauspicious end to a disastrous four years of failure.
The plan calls for regional and international partners to participate in the rebuilding process, including providing security and policing:
“An interim security mission would be made up of members of partner nation security forces and vetted Palestinian personnel. Its responsibilities would include creating a secure environment for humanitarian and reconstruction efforts and ensuring border security, which is crucial to preventing smuggling that could allow Hamas to rebuild its military capacity,” he described.
Neither the Palestinian Authority nor Hamas would particpate officially or directly in any part of the plan, though unspecified “Palestinian individuals” from the PA and Gaza would be involved in some undetermined fashion. Can you imagine any Palestinian willing to defy the sentiment of the vast majority of Palestinians, who reject substituting Israeli, for foreign occupation?
Blinken threw a sop to one of the key figures whose buy-in is critical: Saudi Arabia. Muhammed Bin Salman has said he will not normalize relations with Israel unless there is substantial progress toward creating a Palestinian state. This, of course, will never happen. So Blinken attempts to thread the needle with this empty rhetoric, which may satisfy the Saudis:
“…Some of our partners [most notably, Saudi ally, UAE] have already expressed their willingness to contribute troops and police for such a mission, but if and only if it is agreed that Gaza and the West Bank are reunified under a reformed PA as part of a pathway to an independent Palestinian state.”
There’s that empty locution: a pathway to a Palestinian state. He added: “that path must be ‘time-bound’ and ‘conditions-based’…” This is a pathway that leads nowhere. But the hope by the Administration is that it has enough substance to smooth over MBS’ objections. Depending on how these plans are received in the Arab world and global community, he will likely agree. Though there will certainly be strong objections.
An unnamed UN official would oversee the entire operation. Though it remains to be seen why or how the UN would appoint anyone to fill this role considering the above obstacles. Not to mention Israel’s destruction of UNWRA, the main international refugee agency serving 6-million Palestinians throughout the region.
Such plans depend largely on the will of their subjects. It’s highly doubtful Gazans want anything to do with this half-baked plan. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen in some fashion. But chances of its overall success are slim to none.
Blinken said that the PA would “invite” these parties to play their roles. Among them would be providing billions in funding to ensure its success. It’s beyond foolhardy to expect that a US plan to govern a Palestinian population–and implemented by outside parties with almost no Palestinian participation, could have any hope of success.
Under his proposal the PA would reform itself under some unspecified process before it would participate directly in the governance process.
Blinken crafted this proposal because Israel has failed to provide one of its own. This is strange on its face. One would think a country which went to war would have an interest in ensuring the outcome would guarantee its future interests. Leaving post-war Gaza an empty slate is a recipe for disaster; for a future in which Israel is forced once again to resort to the same failed military approach it has since 10/7 and countless times before that.
If the US proposed plan fails, there will be a power vacuum in Gaza. It certainly will not be filled by the PA, which is mistrusted and hated. Hamas, will undoubtedly regroup and resume control. Israel will resume its siege, and things will be back to precisely where they were before 10/7.
The tens of billions in US weapons and IDF operations, the 800 dead Israeli soldiers, the hundreds of thousands of dead civilians on both sides–all for naught. This is the ultimate nihilism of Bibi Netanyahu. The iron-grip on power. The frenzied sociopathic clinging to control. The demented belief that only he can rule the country and save it. That the entire world is against him including the Opposition and even rivals within his own Party. The willingness to sacrifice anyone and anything to protect his personal interests.
Perhaps most important in all this is to remember Israel’s history of observing past ceasefires: woeful. When a ceasefire suits its interest, it respects it. When it doesn’t, it disregards it. There have been multiple such agreements going back decades. Every time Israel provokes another invasion of Gaza it negotiates a ceasefire, only to break it the next time it chooses to assassinate another Palestinian commander.
This means that any such deal Israel signs now will not only not be permanent, it may not last more than a month or year. When it breaks the ceasefire, it will be as if it never existed. No one will complain. No one will care. All the parties that worked on behalf of an aggrement will throw up their hands and exclaim: we tried. There will be no cost, no consequences for Israel.
When it breaks the ceasefire, Israel will be back to status quo ante. All the previous fighting and sacrifice will evaporate. Lives lost will mean nothing. Hamas will return. All the killings and assassinations will count for nothing. This is the definition of a pathological state steeped in delusions and led by Emperors with leaderless armies, shouting commands into the wind.
The proposed deal is a two stage deal, the first, seemingly agreed upon, includes the release of 33 hostages, and on the 16th day to negotiate further releases of the remaining 65 hostages and final status.
I think the whole deal will break down when it turns out that Hamas or Jihad ‘can’t find’ all the hostages or has killed more than previously thought. This will ignite Israeli bipartizan anger against both Bibi and Hamas, as the return of ALL the hostages is central to the Israeli agreeing upon any future for Gaza.
That will unfortunately return the status to pre 7/10 as regarding any future. Hamas will remain in charge, rearm and retunnel and attack Israeli towns, Israel will continue incursions and bombing.
Business as usual, a waste of thousands of lives and no solution.
@ Shmuel:
No, it’s not. It’s a 3 stage deal. FOllow the link in my post. That document was translated from Arabic and details 3 stages.
And we care what you think because?? And you’re an expert on what is happening in Gaza or Hamas or IJ or Israeli intelligence because?? There may be hostages who are dead whose bodies cannot be released–because they’re under rubble created by IDF bombing. We already know the IDF killed hostages. But those are only the ones it admitted killing. There are undoubtedly many others it also killed but hasn’t confirmed. It’s ludicrous to claim the Palestinians have killed hostages after 10/7. They are the most valuable assets they have.
You mean Israel is going to destroy Gaza’s future? LIke it hasn’t destroyed its past & present? HOw will it do that? By eliminating every man, woman, child, building, street? Even the air, water and soil?
On this we agree. One of the rare times, but you are right on this point.
” It’s ludicrous to claim the Palestinians have killed hostages after 10/7. They are the most valuable assets they have.”
Hamas has definately killed some hostages deliberately – for example, 6 were killed by shooting hours before troops reached them last summer, including Hersh.
Agreed that some hostages were killed by Israeli bombing, but seeing that Hamas refuses to release lists of hostages or allow Red Cross visitation no noe knows numbers.
You of course have every right to disregard what I think, and I am no expert, just an average Israeli who follows the news from many sides. But I think you may have underestimated in your article how the hostage return is absolutely central in Israeli eyes and will be be the make or break for the end of hostilities or continuous war in Gaza.
‘You mean Israel is going to destroy Gaza’s future? LIke it hasn’t destroyed its past & present? HOw will it do that? By eliminating every man, woman, child, building, street? Even the air, water and soil?’
Israel will make the rubble bounce. Twice-bounced rubble is much more rubbley than once-bounced rubble.
Richard what you say may very well be right, but might Trump as president order Netanyahu to go along with such a deal? Trump likes Saudi Arabia’s MBS. With his ego, Trump who has no principals, might want for this deal to be adopted and he could say that he settled the Israel Palestine conflict. He could be hoping to get the Nobel prize. Now I’m not saying all this will happen and I sure as hell wouldn’t bet money on it.
Great article! It really shows how little “Bloody Blinken, Secretary of Genocide” cared about a ceasefire in Gaza. However, it must be said that, even if a ceasefire deal is agreed and implemented in Gaza, it will not automatically end the Middle East crisis. First of all, Syria is a ticking bomb. Secondly, as I reported in my latest article in the link below, while Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is facilitating the ceasefire negotiations in Doha (Qatar), “Trump’s incoming Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg, who is supposed to be negotiating peace with Russia, is instead thinking about preparing for a war against Iran” and in Paris he gave a speech to the Iranian opposition group National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the political arm of the Iranian terrorist organization called Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK): https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/bloody-blinken-secretary-of-genocide?r=25fc37
Thanks Richard .. an excellent overview as always …
Some caveats …
“Refugees would return to their homes.”
… excusez-moi, quelles maisons ?
The humanitarian goods will come across the Rafah crossing from Egypt … unimpeded
Egypt prepares for Rafah crossing reopening amid Gaza ceasefire progress
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202501/14/WS6785bbbea310f1265a1da9b8.html
As I wrote over a year ago … the Egyptian hard stance was to build the fence to “prevent” Israel and the US to dump the Gazans outside of Palestinian territory. [Philadelphi corridor] Sisi held firm.
What role does China still play in the shadows to unite the Arab front with Iran?
The Saudi Kingdom has regained its foothold in Lebanon … think Hariri 2005.
MBS is still subjected to the King and his court of advisors. No normalization with the Jewish State until a definite path to a Palestinian State. Trying to keep UAE on board which has a perfide history in its relation to Palestinians, willing to work hand in glove with Israeli intelligence at all levels.
In this existential war for Palestinian statehood, New Syria will not be a Western ally … the strength lies with Türkiye and Qatar. The HTS group cannot change its roots in Al Qaeda and Jabhat al-Nusra. In the long term, Israel too will have lost and is at the mercy of its neighbours. Take it or leave it.
The Arab League of nations have shown unity with the OIC organization of all Islamic states including Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Southern part of Philippines.
Extraordinary Summit Between the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Arab League Calls for Embargo Against Israel
https://www.spa.gov.sa/en/N1996072
“This is the definition of a pathological state steeped in delusions and led by Emperors with leaderless armies, shouting commands into the wind.”
For a moment I thought you were describing the US/EU and NATO …
Did Bibi cancel his trip to the US after Trump tweeted the truth about Israel from Jeffrey Sachs?
https://www.newarab.com/news/israels-netanyahu-not-formally-invited-trumps-inauguration
Bibi can always hide behind a ICC lie of course.
Israeli Prime Minister not going to 80th anniversary of Auschwitz liberation, even though Poland promises not to arrest him
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/politicians-wont-be-allowed-to-make-speeches-at-ceremony-for-80th-anniversary-of-auschwitzs-liberation/
…absolutely central in Israeli eyes and will be be the make or break for the end of hostilities or continuous war in Gaza
9/11 didn’t happen in a vacuum, neither did 10/7. Mr. security has failed in his primary task to keep Israel safe … as the fate of Palestinians was oppressed year after year … all options to sign peace treaties were squandered by leaders in general … the best security is peace … Bibi had a trauma of the loss of Yoni in the Entebbe raid … he wanted to fulfill the Zionist dream of his father and Jabotinsky … Israel’s security and the Iron dome were always vulnerable as weapons became more sophisticated at a lower cost. All is left for PMO is Hasbara … yet that alone will not be convincing in 2025. The legacy of Bibi is in the person and character of Jair.
https://besacenter.org/netanyahu-jabotinsky-begin-ben-gurion/
Revenge is a poor guide to live in a hostile world. Hate is more destructive than weapons of war.
“We Have A Deal”:
Trump On Israel-Gaza Ceasefire,
Hostage Agreement
I seriously doubt Israel is capable of keeping its word on any agreement; It never did so in the past. One interesting thing you said was that things will return to “Status quo ante” and that “will throw up their hands and exclaim: we tried.”. I am sure that will happen but I am also sure that PALESTINIANS will be held responsible for things breaking down and we will be back to “poor little IsraeL, defending itself”.
Shmuel made an interesting if blind, comment, “Hamas will remain in charge, rearm and retunnel and attack Israeli towns,”
Do Israeli Jews and their supporters really believe they can occupy, humiliate, slaughter and dispossess the people living on a land, call it their own and not expect the natives to resist?
Israel has created a fait accompli where a two-state “solution” is impossible and with the deep, cultural, cultivated, hate against Palestinians, a one-state is not likely either. Unless this situation changes, there will be a “Forever War”. Israelis can continue to kill Palestinians, but they should not expect “Peace” as they would like to define it.
South Africa did not change until Western support disappeared; That precondition is the same with Israel as well.
Balance of power for peace and security …
Rising Turkish Influence in Syria: A National Security Concern
https://jcpa.org/turkeys-new-threat-to-israel/
“Do Israeli Jews and their supporters really believe they can occupy, humiliate, slaughter and dispossess the people living on a land, call it their own and not expect the natives to resist?” They have believed this for 76 years or more. Why would they change now? What happened on 10/7 wont happen again, because the IDF have started thinking how to deal with that specific situation in the future, they are not completely stupid. However you are right Palestinians will continually demand that they have rights. The question for the next four years is, “Does Trump care?” Trump does not want genocide and war on his watch, but democracy for Palestinians is a different matter.
Palestinians are right to demand their rights, will continue to fight for them, and continue to reject the West projecting its historic guilt on them.
As negotiations are proceeding during and after the 1st phase … the ceasefire will endure in the deal … intent to become permanent.
”Abraham Accords, Peace and Security”
Interview on Al Jazeera this morning … Alon Liel hinted at the deal behind the scenes between Trump and Netanyahu … free hand in building settlements on the West Bank (and perhaps border adjustments Southern Lebanon and Syria) ⁉️