Yesterday, Pres. Biden announced he was sending a naval strike group, including America’s first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, to the eastern Mediterranean:
The USS Gerald R. Ford, the Navy’s newest and most advanced aircraft carrier, and its approximately 5,000 sailors and deck of warplanes will be accompanied by cruisers and destroyers in a show of force that is meant to be ready to respond to anything, from possibly interdicting additional weapons from reaching Hamas and conducting surveillance.
The large deployment reflects a U.S. desire to deter any regional expansion of the conflict.
Though he said he did this as a show of strength in support of Israel (which it was), it was more than that. It certainly wasn’t to threaten Hamas. You don’t need an strike force’s full complement of air and sea power against a tiny enclave with the weapons capacity of city police department.
Hamas’ leadership had called for an armed Arab uprising throughout the Middle East. That includes Iran, Hezbollah, Syria and other potential allies. Yesterday, two Islamic Jihad fighters infiltrated northern Israel and were killed by Israeli forces. Druze Lt. Col. Alim Saad was killed in this action. This the third senior officer killed in the past three days. In retaliation, Israel launched an artillery barrage into Lebanon which killed as many as give Hezbollah militants. Lebanese residents in the south have begun to leave in fear of a major escalation like Israel’s 2006 invasion.
This is how it begins. This is how a small match turns into a catastrophic forest fire. Israel lit the match, Hamas added fuel. But it’s still not a forest fire. What could happen to make it one? A two-front war? Three-fronts? A full fledged engagement with Hezbollah and tens of thousands of missiles raining down on towns in Israel’s north? An Israeli invasion reminiscent of its 2006 war?
Nor is Hezbollah alone. It’s most powerful ally is Iran, which has supplied much of its 100,000+ missile arsenal. If Lebanon comes under attack Iran would certainly not stand by. It would join the fight in some fashion. Would its response to sufficient to draw Israel into direct conflict? Iranian drones or missiles exploding over Tel Aviv?
Of course, Israel has a massive military might and can fight on a few fronts. But can it fight on three, four, all at once? Probably. But who knows. It has been humiliated and its deterrent power has been smashed. Iran may see an opportunity for payback and God knows, it has reason. What might it do? Undoubtedly, as I wrote above, it can do extensive damage to Israel should it choose to.
Netanyahu: Iran did it
Netanyahu has already laid out a narrative that helps him on two fronts. He claims that Iran was behind the Hamas attack. Because, of course the Palestinians could never have orchestrated such a complicated operation on its own. Supposedly credible analysts like Bruce Hoffman have bought into this:
Hamas possessing the ability to keep its preparations unknown from a country like Israel that has among the most sophisticated intelligence services in the world strongly suggests that it had external state support, advice, and guidance in the planning and execution of the attack on Israel. Iran, accordingly, will be strongly suspected of being behind this.
There must be a hidden hand–and the one that is most convenient is Iran. This is precisely the sort of faulty analysis and miscalculation that landed Israel in the mess its in. They always underestimate their enemy. And they always pay for it. They did it in 2006 with Hezbollah, which wiped the floor with the IDF. They did it this week with Hamas.
Note Hoffman says Iran is “strongly suspected” of being the hidden hand behind it all. What does that even mean? Where is the evidence? Even circumstantial evidence. Israel and the US have the most sophisticated satellite surveillance and signals intelligence capabilities in the world. Surely they would see or hear something. Where is it? Or are they blowing smoke up their ass?
Bibi’s second front is domestic. The army failed. The Shin Bet failed. The advanced surveillance failed. The $3-billion underground fence failed. Every defence failed. And the one who failed worst of all is Netanyahu himself. He’s the boss. He’s the leader. When the nation crumbles the top guy falls. But not in Israel. The top guy always manages to blame everyone but himself. So if he can divert blame from himself and lay it on Iran, that saves his ass.
Escalation scenario for regional conflict
If Iran attacks; if Hezbollah attacks; if Syria joins in. Then Israel faces a serious threat.
What would Biden do? So far he’s been a decent president. Not one I would ever vote for. But better than the hack job who preceded him. Biden seems to have decent political instincts.
But concerning Israel, not so much. That naval flotilla is there for one reason; and it isn’t to give some sailors holiday leave in Haifa. Biden brought out the big guns to warn Hamas’ regional allies to stay out of the fight. It’s a game of chicken. Who will blink first? Will the aircraft carrier with the F-35s and cruise missiles intimidate Iran and Hezbollah just enough to make them think twice about attacking Israel? Or will genocide in Gaza along with an Israeli invasion of Lebanon draw Iran in as well?
Of course, I’m gaming out a scenario. But the heart of the issue is the extraordinarily dangerous decision Biden made to send such a massive force right into the heart of the slaughter.
Even if none of the above happens, we’ve made our bed. We’re sleeping with murderers engaged in genocide. People don’t forget that. Victims don’t forget. They want revenge for their suffering. We will pay. We paid on 9/11. There will be a price for our decisions in this case as well.
One geo-strategic price is that the Israel-Saudi normalization deal so painstakingly negotiated by Biden officials, is dead in the water. Though the Saudis may be perfectly ready to sell the Palestinians down the river, abandoning them now would be suicide in the Arab-Muslim world. It will be months, if not longer before Biden can get things back on track.
I think Israel knew about this attack, and allowed it to happen. I don’t believe Mossad did not know.
It was the way they could get rid of Gazans for good. Telling them to leave for Egypt, they won’t ever return.
It could be that they did not anticipate such a forceful reaction, but Iran hasn’t a prayer of winning a war against a US/Israeli alliance. it must know that.
Qatar’s role here should not be whitewashed either. Giving shelter to Haniyeh, then pretending that it only offers humanitarian assistance. It knows full well, what Hamas’s intent is.
@ Jeez:
What you “think” isn’t worth a goddmamn. Israeli military and intelligence officials have all admitted they knew nothing. Yet you in yr infinite wisdom know better.
Which is to defend Palestinian soil and take revenge on its enemies, right?
You may publish a single comment in any thread. This was your single comment
[comment deleted: one comment per thread. You were asked politely and ignored me. Next time you do this you will be banned]
It will be months, if not longer before Biden can get things back on track.
Damn … Joe Biden needed normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel to show off Trump and “success” of Abraham Accords including Trump Heights (illegal) settlement … What’s In A Name?
Sending all of America’s military might well do to gain crucial Jewish vote for re-election in 2024. AIPAC satisfaction.
The great danger is that because the US feels obliged to interfere all over the world it will become increasingly unpopular and the world will turn against the US.
The United States has been fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq for years.
Now she is prepared to take that just fight to the terror organization Hezbollah, if Hezbollah foolishly attacks Israel on a second front.
Israel’s 50 years of fidelity has earned it the support of the United States.
The same way the United States opposes Russian aggression against Ukraine, the United States is doing the same thing in with Hezbollah and Iran. The United States will oppose Russian and Iranian expansion, because the United States knows that indifference and appeasement will whet the appetites of rogue, autocratic, expansionist States.
A very strained equivalence between what is happening in Israel now and what Russia is doing in and to Ukraine. Ukraine’s existential war with Russia is the opposite of Israel’s occupation and war against Palestinian resistance including Hamas resistance using terror. Israel’s occupation is more akin to Russia’s occupation if you want to compare. But Israel will try to make the connection perhaps. Helping Ukraine fight off Russia is just. Helping Israel decimate Gaza in retaliation is not just.
@ Yellow: The US is no longer fighting anyone in Iraq and hasn’t for years. ISIS has been defeated in Syria and barely exists there, which is why there are so few US soldiers there.
Ah, I see. So the US lost 248 Marines in the Beirut bombing and you think we’re going to raise the flag in Beirut against and take it to those nasty Hezbollah scum? Not so fast. Biden absolutely does not want another Middle East quagmire. He would never attack Hezbollah unless Israel was losing a full scale war in Lebanon. The chances of that are nil.
Ridiculous. Israel has never been loyal to the US. It has in fact burned the US, rejected US advice. Stolen US military secrets, recruited spies to do so. It has killed 10s of thousands of Palestinians. That doesn’t show fidelity. It shows naked self-interest.
Remember, one comment per thread.
@Richard
You said that Hamas cannot be defeated
If ISIS can be defeated in the field, why not Hamas. They are, after all, ideologically similar. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-767627
@Potter
Notwithstanding your elliptic argument vis a vis Ukraine, the question is one of tactics.
Terror tactics or military tactics. Hamas uses both, Ukraine does not.
@Yellow: I requested that you post a single comment in any thread. This is your 2nd comment in this thread. Normally, I would moderate you and delete this comment. If you do this again in this or another thread I will moderate or ban you.
Because, contrary to what idiot analysts & government officials are saying, they are not the same. ISIS is a here-today, gone-tomorrow phenomenon. It existed for a while, had power and territory. But then was defeated (except for pockets in places I mentioned). It is not wiped out entirely. But its sway is much reduced.
Hamas has been a movement for decades. It has ruled Gaza for decades. As such it has rules of governance. It has fought Israeli firepower numerous times and held its own despite Israel’s overwhelming advantages. It cannot be defeated unless Israel reoccupies Gaza, maintains a huge military force there, and spends billions to do so. It won an election and would likely win any if Fatah were willing to have one. It represents a people and a nation (unlike ISIS).
Do not use Jerusalem Post as a credible source. It isn’t. I generally don’t respond to links from it. If you can find evidence to support your claims in a credible source, do so.
Got news for you. Assassinating a woman in her car with a bomb IS a terror tactic. Ukraine was responsible. Blowing up the Nordstream pipeline was a terror tactic. Ukraine was responsible.
“Hamas has been a movement for decades. It has ruled Gaza for decades.”
Maybe you have been reading the JP but Hamas has not been a movement for decades nor has it ruled for decades. I believe from 2007 [the last time they had elections]
@ Shaul: Um, no. Hamas was founded (with Israeli assistance) in 1987, that is 36 years ago. That is “decades” by my count. It has ruled Gaza since 2006. That is, 17 years. But since its founding it has been the primary political movement in Gaza. When I used the term “ruled” I was including the period prior to 2006 because Hamas’ presence in Gaza was predominant.
This is a test for Biden I agree. So far it’s disappointing- the weapons and show of force begs a challenge. We still think we can run things in this multipolar world. Putin knows this game of chicken. Biden has shown himself the cautious one re Ukraine.
Of course it’s fear of losing support in the 2024 election given so many one issue voters here that could tip the scales.
I think if Israel continues its destruction and genocide, the over the top disproportion in Gaza we will see ME brethren enter the picture and more fronts. Netanyahu has brought this all on. Israel and israelis depending on military might got complacent heady and blatantly more hateful of Palestinians they thought had been abandoned subdued and without hope. Hamas changed that with a wow of an attack.
Old analysis attributed Israel’s success to the inability of the Arabs to unite…
So disappointed in Biden. This could be a great opportunity to get a grand bargain going niw that Israel has shown weakness and Hamas (& co. ?) has shown strength. But oy vey oy gevalt what will come instead.
EU In Disarray on One-sided Support for Israel as some countries call for restraint and de-escalation.
Biden wants to win the next election, so he has to show unlimited support for Israel to get reelected, a sad reality of American politics, and a sad reality of Jewish Power in the Christian West.
Iran and Hezbollah know that Israel will implode demographically as a “Jewish State” in time, and that they can wait for that to happen, without ever attacking Israel, or building a Nuclear Weapon.
Gaza is suffering, and had to do something to change the “equation”, even if that means Israel takes over Gaza, which may have been Gaza’s plan from the beginning.
The West Bank is also suffering, and Abbas or his successor will also have to change the “equation” even if that means dissolving the Palestinian Authority, and giving the keys to the West Bank back to Israel.
The Oslo Accords, and Areas A B C, were an Israeli ruse to fragment the West Bank, and getting the Palestinians to govern themselves in Area A, thereby allowing Israel to incrementally steal Area C over time.
Undoing Oslo like this, will force Israel to rule all of Palestine again, opening themselves up to new demands from around the world for Palestinian Civil Rights and the Palestinian Vote in One State.
“The Palestinians have made it clear today that they would rather fight on their feet for justice and freedom than die on their knees in humiliation” — Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera
Interesting analysis. Mustafa Barghouti was good here https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/08/gps-1008-mustafa-barghouti-on-israels-war-on-hamas.cnn
If this is what Biden has to do to win in 2024 for us to avoid Trump it is very sad.
Biden/ Blinken could bargain, not give knee-jerk slobbering support, get concessions at this Israeli weak point. Or try. They could admit the essential rottenness of the situation and hold off support, not give support for war crimes to happen and to perpetuate war. Biden fears.
Hamas has a kind of Pyrrhic victory here. They have called attention to the Palestinians, the long long situation, people forgotten, betrayed, hopeless. It became a necessity to show these extreme brutal tactics. And now turn to Israel’s three eyes for one eye, blind with rage disproportion. We are going to be witnessing a change in Israel and maybe the Middle East. Behold the power of terror! Look at how we reacted, what we did after 9/11.
Deploying the aircraft carrier to the region is a fund-raising stunt, nothing more. If Biden were seriously worried about Iran, he would deploy the aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. Erdogan seems annoyed by the stunt.
If US citizens need to be evacuated they have the means to do it. Nothing to see here.
Sure … Americans only stumbling down the stairs of aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford.
Arab League Demands Palestinian State
In shorthand form as it is late …
Arab ministers urge Israel to resume talks on two-state solution | The Guardian |
Emergency meeting of Arab League calls for ’serious negotiations between the PLO and Israel’
King Abdullah: ’There can be no security, no peace, and no stability without a just and comprehensive peace’ | Jordan Times |
Arab League slams Israel siege of Gaza, demands aid for Gazans | Arab News |
The only entrance to Gaza not controlled by Israel is Rafah on the Egyptian border.
Rafah has been bombarded by Israel three times this week.
Arab League: Aid to Gaza and Negotiations Palestinian State
U.S. may send second aircraft carrier toward Israel | Politico |
We moved the US carrier fleet to the eastern Mediterranean and we are sending more fighter jets to that region, and made it clear to the Iranians: Be careful.
Israel Escalates Into Lebanon … and Syria
With Big Brother on the coastline …
Syria’s two main airports out of service after Israel strikes: state media | Arab News – 2 hrs ago |