It’s hard to be categorically optimistic about anything Barack Obama says since he’s let so many down so much.  But his statements about drone strikes and the war on terror, while not everything one would wish, were a vast improvement over U.S. policy for the past five years in which over 3,000 have been killed, over 400 of which were civilians.  The speech he gave was quite broad and deserves parsing by subject.

Obama came about as close to promising the closure of Guantanamo as he’s come in a long time (remember right after the election when he said it would be one of his first priorities?).  Of course, Republicans shreied that he couldn’t return prisoners to Yemen because they’d turn right back into terrorists again.  This of course neglects the fact that these men were never tried for any crime, let alone convicted.  So how can you continue imprisoning a man never convicted of a crime for fear that he may in future commit a crime?  This is the wackiest interpretation of constitutional law I’ve ever seen.

Obama didn’t seem terribly happy with his Justice Department’s effort not just to ferret out and criminalize whistleblowers and leakers, but to drag journalists into the courtroom as well.  FoxNews’ DC bureau chief was just named a “co-conspirator” in a case involving the broadcast of a secret U.S. report about North Korea.  Obama is also reacting to the fallout from Justice’s fishing expedition against the AP for their reporting about a terror plot foiled by U.S. intelligence.

Though Obama professed support for journalists and just revived a shield law for them, I remain dubious that Obama will rein in the Justice Department in these matters.  They have become a hallmark of his administration and offered a strong link to the Bush anti-terror doctrine which preceded it.  Breaking such a link would mark a distinct break with Obama’s natural political inclination to outdo and co-opt the GOP right on national security policy.

The president said that drone strikes would no longer take place if there was any danger of harm to civilians:

‘Before any strike is taken, there must be near-certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured – the highest standard we can set.’

In at least one instance, Obama lied in claiming his administration had:

‘a strong preference for the detention and prosecution of terrorists’

Obama has detained very few terrorists and those few he prosecuted were largely arrested by the Bush administration.  This lie betrays the fact that there has been no serious efforts to apprehend militants and bring them to justice.  The case of Osama bin Laden is a perfect case in point.  Assassination was our policy in that instance.

The president offered this dubious defense of the assassination of U.S. citizen, Anwar al-Awlaki, saying his citizenship:

‘should no more serve as a shield than a sniper shooting down on an innocent crowd should be protected from a Swat team.’

The difference is that a sniper has a gun in his hands and may be physically seen to be in the act of killing.  The evidence against al-Awlaki is secret.  There is no smoking gun, not even video of the Yemeni-American cleric engaging in or planning an act of terror.  There are only promises from Obama and his minions that this is what he did.  In this, I’m from Missouri, the ‘Show Me’ state.

The most inaptly named “signature strikes,” against groups of unknown assailants presumed to be militants, will be ended.  Again, this would be terrific if we could believe it will be implemented in the field.  But that remains to be seen.  And the Bureau of Investigative Journalism reminds us that the new guidelines on this subject are themselves secret.  So it’s hard to know exactly what the new policy is other than what the president has told us.  But if he holds true to the broad outlines, it may be a welcome and long-overdue change.  One wonders though whether 3,000 Muslims had to die for us to get to that point.

One could argue that the retreat from drones as a major counter-terror instrument may’ve been forced on Obama.  Pakistan’s incoming prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, made a point on the campaign trail of saying that he not only opposed drones, but that he would shoot them down.  The outgoing government was much more pliant than the new one appears to be.  Of course, what Pakistan does on this question will be dictated by the military, much more than civilian politicians.  But the generals can’t help but be influenced by the overwhelming popular opposition to this violation of Pakistani territorial sovereignty.

I was gratified to read yesterday in Scott Shane’s report that as important a U.S. security figure as Michael Hayden acknowledged that the vociferous attacks on our drone policy by human rights activists, journalists and analysts have served as one important reason the government is backing away from it:

…The negative effects of the strikes deserve greater consideration. Among them, he [Hayden] said, were alienating the leadership of countries where the strikes occur; losing intelligence from allies whose laws prohibit support for targeted killings; an eroding political consensus in the United States; and “creating a recruiting poster for Al Qaeda.”

In this, we should give ourselves a pat on the back.  The work of myriad U.S. and international opponents of this counter-terror approach has made itself felt.

medea benjamin

Codepink’s Medea Benjamin heckles Pres. Obama’s speech

The Times also published a moving account of Pakistani children who’ve been murdered or maimed by our missile strikes and a lawyer’s attempt to secure justice for them in her nation’s courts.  She offers a plaintive request to the president to acknowledge our culpability in destroying the lives of these innocent civilian victims.  Not a word in Obama’s speech about this.  Nor was there a word of regret expressed for 16 year-old Abdulrahman al-Awlaki, a U.S. citizen murdered in Yemen while searching for his father, Anwar, who’d been killed by another drone several weeks earlier.

It’s worthwhile to hear this voice of an Obama skeptic that pretty much sets the proper tone for me:

Col. Morris D. Davis, a former chief prosecutor at Guantánamo who has become a leading critic of the prison, waited until after the speech to express disappointment that Mr. Obama was not more proactive. “It’s great rhetoric,” he said. “But now is the reality going to live up to the rhetoric?”

I note Codepink’s ever-courageous Medea Benjamin was in the audience heckling the president and demanding that he obey the law.  More power to her!

The best that can be said for the President is that he appears to want to be seen to be doing the right thing.  The rhetoric was largely correct.  But with Obama it’s all in the implementation.  If he acts as he speaks he’s to be commended.  But so often in the past he’s said one thing and his administration has done something totally different.  We’ll just have to wait to see if this speech marks a change.

There is one terribly ironic aspect of all this that must be noted.  Above, and often in previous posts, I’ve highlighted journalists and whistleblowers investigated and prosecuted by this administration for doing their jobs.  Many critics have noted the irony of the Obama administration itself leaking like a sieve when it’s in its own interest to do so.  I counted something like four or five articles in yesterday’s NY Times in which sensitive, if not secret information was divulged by government sources in order to build up today’s speech.  Apparently, when the wrong officials leak it’s a crime.  When the right ones leak, it’s doing your job.

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Hezbollah Escalates Syrian Civil War

by Richard Silverstein on May 23, 2013 · 27 comments

in Mideast Peace

hezbollah fighters qusayr

Hezbollah fighters headed to Qusayr (AFP/Getty)

Hezbollah and its sponsors Iran and Syria have made a calculated decision to escalate the violence inside that country by inserting large contingents of its fighters in the fight for Qusayr.  The battle for that  strategic town is turning out to be the Masada or Alamo of the civil war.  For four days, rebel fighters have withstood constant hammering by government air power and ground forces which include large numbers of Hezbollah fighters.  They crossed the border from the Lebanese Bekaa Valley and have turned the Syrian conflict from a domestic drama into a regional crisis.

I believe Iran and Hassan Nasrallah have made a strategic blunder.  Before, the only major actors were Assad and his loyalists on one side and the Free Syrian Army on the other.  There were larger actors playing secondary roles like Turkey, Qatar, Iran and Russia.  But their involvement was peripheral to the main action.  With Hezbollah’s insertion of its veteran fighters into the conflict, Nasrallah has crossed the Rubicon of intervention.  He has taken his Islamist movement from being its roots in resistance to Israel and transformed it into a regional mercenary force ready and able to kill not just Israelis, but fellow Arabs.

Until now, Hezbollah, while hated by many inside Lebanon, could at least argue that it remained true to its original mission.  But now it has moved far beyond that.  It has lost its focus.  It has become a gun for hire (in this case hired by Assad).  By all reports, the Syrian rebels have made Nasrallah’s men pay a high price.  Funerals are now a regular occurrence in the Bekaa.  At least 46 fighters are reported dead in the past few days.

assad cartoon

Assad to IDF chief Benny Gantz as he walks through a Syrian minefield: “Watch your step!”

If Qusayr continues to hold out and represents either a victory for the resistance or a bloody massacre perpetrated by Assad’s forces, it could ignite the will of those nations which have largely remained on the sidelines in terms of active, direct involvement, especially Turkey.  This in turn, could ignite the sort of regional conflict many of us have dreaded.

For Iran, which has to have played a major role in encouraging Hezbollah’s decision to “invade” Syria, it too had few good options.  If it had poured Revolutionary Guards into Syria to stabilize Assad, it would’ve brought down the combined wrath of all the P5 countries who are negotiating about its nuclear program.  There would be even less tolerance of Iranian intervention than of Hezbollah intervention.

Hezbollah intervention has moved three major European powers, Germany, France and the UK to ask that the EU designate Hezbollah as a terrorist group.  This change will turn world public opinion against the Lebanese group.  It will also embolden its Sunni enemies within Lebanon to oppose them politically. In fact, five days of rioting in northern Lebanon have left five dead.  Just as most Lebanese did not want Syria to meddle in Lebanon’s political affairs, most Lebanese want to remain out of Syria’s conflict.  Hezbollah’s turning against this consensus will bring a dear price in terms of its popularity within Lebanon.

Israel, while alarmed at the escalation and how it might play out in terms of the stability of security on its border with Syria, will be delighted.  Because Hassan Nasrallah, usually a cold, calculating fellow, has overplayed his hand.  Autocrats remain safe as long as they remain cautious.  But when they allow their egos or megalomania to draw them into adventures, then they leave themselves vulnerable.  Pride (and miscalculation) come before a fall.

Israel will be able to exploit these mistakes.  As long as it remains outside the conflict.  But if Israel too intervenes, as Jodi Rudoren reported it is contemplating, then all bet’s are off.  She spoke to unnamed Israeli advisors who admitted its forces are using Syrian Druze villagers as intelligence assets.  They speculated that Israel might develop them into a military proxy.  This is reminiscent of Sharon, who created the South Lebanese Army, which became Israel’s enforcer in the region.  The SLA turned out to be a costly and disastrous mistake.  It did not stave off Israel’s eventual retreat from Lebanon; and it left hundreds of Lebanese Christian allies who Israel had to save from being killed as collaborators.  That’s the model Israel would use in the Golan as well.

Further, when Israel believed it’s worst Palestinian enemy was Fatah in the 1980s, it tolerated the budding Islamist movement, Hamas, which it saw as a blocking force.  Guess what happened there…

Israel might also want to contemplate the U.S. experience in Afghanistan in the 1980s when we propped up the mujahedeen as a resistance force against the Soviets.  What hell did we reap from that whirlwind?  Out of it came bin Laden, Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and 40 years of Afghan civil war.

Best friends have a habit of turning into worst enemies in the Middle East, given the right circumstances.

To all this provocation and incitement, add a new element.  An IDF artillery unit wiped out a Syrian military position which had shelled an army jeep which the Syrians claimed was on their side of the armistice line.  Israel claimed it was on its side.  This is the same sort of incident Moshe Dayan described when he noted the deliberate provocations the IDF used on the Syrian border, when it placed a tractor on the border, hoping Syrian artillery would shell it.  When it did, Israel used this as a justification for invading the Golan in 1967.  It is entirely possible Israel wants a Syrian military overreaction to justify its own intervention.  Though it is possible there are Israeli strategists who have enough clear-sightedness to realize an Israeli entrance into the maelström would spell doom for whatever outcome Israel wishes.

The point is that over-reaction or miscalculation by one side will draw the other deeper into the mire (remember Newton’s Law: “for each action there is an equal and opposite reaction.”)  The result could be something like what happened after the Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated by Serbian nationalists at the onset of World War I.  Is that what any sane person (who isn’t an extremist) wants?  In other words, back off!

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google price tag attack

Yisrael HaYom headline: “Anger in Gush Etzion: Google suggests to settlers use a browser of the “State of Palestine”

To quote Joseph Conrad’s Captain Kurtz on his deathbed: “the horror!”

Yisrael HaYom conveys (English translation thanks to Sol Salbe) the dismay and consternation with which residents of the Gush Etzion settlement woke up one morning to find that they no longer lived in the State of Israel, as they’d thought.  But rather in…the State of Palestine!  Or so Google told them.  A shockwave as great as the Oklahoma tornado traveled throughout the settler kingdom as they lost their status as chalutzim on behalf of the Jewish state and were relegated to second class status as citizens of Palestine.

Amir Schiby, in his inimitable ironic way, has captured the nuttiness of it all with his graphic image of the Google Mountainview campus under price tag attack.  I’ve even heard that settlers have threatened to launch such a campaign unless the internet giant immediately renounces its decision and restores them to their former residency in the Davidic kingdom of Judea.

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rabbi ronitsky's racist sayings

Rabbi Ronitsky’s “greatest hits” of hatemongering

New political powerhouse, Religious Affairs Minister Naftali Bennett, a “moderate” settler leader, has appointed former IDF Chief Rabbi Avichai Ronsky to be chief of a little outfit he’s calling the Jewish Identity Administration. Currently, the rabbi is rosh yeshiva in the Itamar settlement.  It is one of the most virulent and violent of all the settlements in promoting  mayhem against Palestinians.  A number of local villagers have been murdered by Itamar residents.  So much so that it was the target of a heinous terror attack a year ago in which the Fogel family was murdered.

Though Bennett’s goal is to strengthen Jewish identity, I can’t help thinking it’s an Israeli political-religious correctness regime. Ostensibly, the minister says the new body’s goal is to model and promote Jewish values.  But I can’t help thinking of previous regimes in world history who promoted their own vision of national purity.

I believe strongly in Jewish values. They are what led me to create this blog. My Jewish values are compassion for the sick and downtrodden; justice for the weak and oppressed; making the world a better place. And not just for Jews, but for everyone. Including Israel’s ostensible enemies, the Arabs. Naftali Bennett’s version of Jewish values is something altogether different. This Jewish Identity Administration isn’t that far removed from the vision of racial purity offered by both the Nazis and Meir Kahane.

Here are a few of the “greatest hits” that Amir Schiby has dug up from the sainted rabbi’s “vaults” which he features under the heading “Jewish Strength:”

“I hate the State of Tel Aviv.”

“Rabbi Ronitsky: Collective punishment against residents of Awarta in revenge for Itamar terror attack”

Former IDF Chief Rabbi: Fire on terror suspects in their beds.”

“IDF military rabbinate against the homo-lesbo community”

These are Naftali Bennet’s “Jewish values.”  Not mine.  These are values of hate and racism.  These are values of racial supremacy and purity.

It appears Ronsky bestows his blessings and beatings liberally on his own ideological camp as well.  When a young man whom the Shabak had forbidden from entering the West Bank under administrative order told Ronsky he would disrupt a memorial service for the Fogel family murdered at Itamar because an IDF commander would be speaking, Ronsky threatened that he would have the boy’s “arms and legs broken” if he showed up.

This is definitely the sort of saintly figure I want teaching Jews how to be better Jews.

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This is my latest video for Israel Social TV which combines reporting on two of my most recent scoops embargoed by Israeli media. In the first, I discuss the Israeli advanced Shoval drone hacked and hijacked by either Iran or Hezbollah, then destroyed by Israel when it lost control. This is an escalation in the Cold War between Israel and Iran in the region.

The second scoop is the secret military-intelligence mission Israel opened in the past year in UAE in an ongoing attempt to build a Gulf “moderate crescent” (Israel’s term, not mine) anti-Iran alliance under the tutelage of the U.S.

Please promote and share it through your social media accounts, especially among Israelis, who can’t read the full truth concerning these stories.

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Syria: Proxy Wars

by Richard Silverstein on May 19, 2013 · 7 comments

in Mideast Peace

A tweet I just read which noted the multiple proxy conflicts playing out in the midst of the Syrian civil war, made me realize just how many different parties and powers are facing off against each other there.  Some are using proxies.  Some represent their interests directly.

First, we have Assad and his allies: Iran, Hezbollah and Russia.  Then we have the Syrian rebels and their allies: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.  Let’s not leave out Israel which has no bone to pick with Assad, but which opposes Iran and Hezbollah.  That makes Israel, a party with a major military presence, a wild card.  Despite its false protestations to the contrary, it has intervened in the war, though only to interdict weapons shipments from Iran to Hezbollah.  But to muddy the waters a bit, it has also attacked advanced Russian arms being shipped via Syria, possibly to Hezbollah.

Israel has warned Assad that it would punish him severely if he attacks it in retaliation for IAF air attacks on these weapons shipments.  Israeli military sources have gone so far as to threaten to overturn his rule.  This is, of course, nonsense, what would Israel do?  Get rid of Assad and replace him with whom, with what?  The Syrian Chalabi?  The Syrian Falangist?  How many allies does Israel think it has among the Syrian opposition?  Of course, it could buy somebody off as it did with the South Lebanon Army, which served as Israel’s proxy in that country for a decade or more.  But that’s both an expensive proposition, and even less likely to work now than it did then in southern Lebanon.

The truth for Israel is that Assad is their man.  A guy made in its image.  Like Mubarak.  He maintained the peace in Sinai for decades.  He embargoed Hamas in Gaza.  He did Israel’s bidding without too much prompting.

Assad too holds back the Furies.  Up till now, he maintained a stable, relatively peaceful border in the Golan.  He was predictable and quiescent, except for his little nuclear escapade with the North Koreans.  So what will come after?  Le deluge.  The Nusra Front, Al Qaeda, Alawites, Sunnis.  All fighting for their slice of the territorial pie.  That could leave the country in a mess, much as Lebanon was during and long after its own civil war.  In such a situation, Syria poses a grave threat to Israel.  Instability could easily lead to development of a native Hezbollah style opposition.

On the other hand, Israel could play off the protagonists one against the other as it did between Fatah and Hamas after the latter first began; or as it did between the Maronites, Shiites, and Sunnis in Lebanon.  As long as there is a reasonable balance of power in Syria, and one ethnic group doesn’t overpower others, the resulting stalemate might force them to fight each other rather than Israel.  That’s why Daniel Pipes, in typically diabolical fashion for him, suggests that Israel support whichever side appears to be losing.  In his mind, the more the animals slaughter each other the less they’ll slaughter Jews.

Complicating this further are the various proxy standoffs among the parties: Russia against the U.S.  Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey against the Alawite Assad, who is backed by the Shiite Iranians.  It’s enough to make one dizzy.  But the end result of all of this ethnic fragmentation is an exceedingly dangerous situation.  Already 80,000 have died, 1.5-million are refugees.  In other similar ethnic wars in Rwanda, Serbia-Kosovo, Congo hundreds of thousands have been slaughtered.  Unless all parties aren’t exceedingly careful, this could be Syria’s future.

If you layer over this the larger war playing out between Israel and Iran, including their respective backers, the U.S. and Russia (again), this is a very high stakes game.  But unlike poker, there may be no winners.

A further instructive historical example might be the Spanish Civil War, in which Nazi Germany used Franco as its proxy while Soviet Russia and the international left used the Loyalists as their proxy.  In that conflict, the Nazis especially tested out their latest weapons systems, which would go on to “productive” use in the greater war that followed.  As that Civil War was a rehearsal for World War II, might Syria be a rehearsal for an even greater regional conflict to follow?  Let’s also not forget that this War presaged one of the greatest crimes in history, the Holocaust.  I don’t believe it can come anywhere near that in the Syrian conflict.  But the danger exists.

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2012 Democracy Index Ranks Israel 37th

by Richard Silverstein on May 18, 2013 · 32 comments

in Mideast Peace

democracy index 2012The Economist’s 2012 Democracy Index (access may require site registration, which is free) ranks Israel 37th among 167 countries.  It gets reasonably high marks in most political categories.  But Israel falls down severely in the civil liberties category, where it receives a 5.9 ranking out of 10.  Its overall placement puts it in the category of “flawed democracies.”  Within that category, it placed 12th.

To be forthright, Israel does rank higher than other MENA countries, including the most arguably democratic country in the region (aside from Israel), Turkey.  But compared to western or Asian democracies and the U.S., to which Israel traditionally likens itself, it falls distinctly short.

One of my readers tells me that in French Wikipedia the hasbarafia have falsified the reporting of this Index and moved Israel up to 16th place.  I find it amazing that someone would find there was any value in doing such a thing.

 

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stephen holmes RT report

RT’s original uncensored report which exposes Stephen Holmes’ identity.

I’m more used to breaking stories concerning the Mossad than I am the CIA.  But in this case, Russia Today (now known as RT) dropped a scoop right in my lap.

The main thrust of this story deals with the exposure of an accused CIA operative, Ryan Fogle, who was arrested in Moscow several days ago.  Fogle’s “cover” was a job as third political secretary of the U.S. embassy.  His “crime” was an attempt to recruit a Russian agent to work for the CIA.

The entire incident, replete with fake wigs and an alleged letter of invitation to the Russian to spy on behalf of Uncle Sam, reeked of a put-up job.  Either Fogle was the dumbest spy ever to work for this country; or the Russians are the worst con artists in the history of counter-espionage practice.

Though I have no idea what really happened, reading the RT story, it appears the FSB was extremely unhappy with unspecified CIA activities in Russia and had warned the station chief that it was walking a fine line.  I’m guessing that nothing as extravagant as what the Russians claim actually happened.  But that the Russians set-up Fogle, and his arrest and expulsion were a warning to the U.S. to get back into line.

But here’s the real scoop: in the RT story, it exposed the identity of the CIA’s Moscow station chief.  His name is Stephen Holmes.  You’ll find the original story displayed here.  This is a link to the censored version.

So the real question is what happened to this story and why.  Presumably, the FSB wanted to expose the CIA station chief.  Doing so would blow his cover and render him less effective as a spook.  If that’s the case, it might have been further revenge for Holmes’ refusal to rein in his operatives when the FSB requested that he do so.

But why censor the report after you’ve exposed him?  A tug of war within the Kremlin?  Political operatives cooling off the FSB?  A complaint from the U.S. embassy?  A threat the U.S. would expose the identity of the SVR (Russia’s overseas intelligence service) station chief in DC?  At any rate, you can’t put the genie back in the bottle. America will have to respond with a tit for tat.  And where does that leave us?

Just when the U.S. and Russia were making attempts to patch up a frayed relationship, it appears that either Putin or the spy apparatus want to return us to the days of the very Cold War.  It’s a time that ex-KGBniks like Putin remember well.  Perhaps they feel nostalgic for it.  Perhaps they don’t care whether Syria goes up in flames and want to topple a joint effort to negotiate an end to the crisis there.

At any rate, I expect that Mr. Holmes may be returning home himself a bit sooner than expected.

A number of media outlets have reported this story, though I don’t believe any have reported Holmes’ name.  I do so here because RT has already done so.  It will only be a matter of hours before someone else will do so in the western media.

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