Tikun olam

Israel Social TV Video on Israel’s Hijacked Drone and Secret Military Mission in UAE

by Richard Silverstein on May 19, 2013 · 5 comments

This is my latest video for Israel Social TV which combines reporting on two of my most recent scoops embargoed by Israeli media. In the first, I discuss the Israeli advanced Shoval drone hacked and hijacked by either Iran or Hezbollah, then destroyed by Israel when it lost control. This is an escalation in the Cold War between Israel and Iran in the region.

The second scoop is the secret military-intelligence mission Israel opened in the past year in UAE in an ongoing attempt to build a Gulf “moderate crescent” (Israel’s term, not mine) anti-Iran alliance under the tutelage of the U.S.

Please promote and share it through your social media accounts, especially among Israelis, who can’t read the full truth concerning these stories.

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Syria: Proxy Wars

by Richard Silverstein on May 19, 2013 · 7 comments

in Mideast Peace

A tweet I just read which noted the multiple proxy conflicts playing out in the midst of the Syrian civil war, made me realize just how many different parties and powers are facing off against each other there. Some are using proxies. Some represent their interests directly.

First, we have Assad and his allies: Iran, Hezbollah and Russia. Then we have the Syrian rebels and their allies: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Let’s not leave out Israel which has no bone to pick with Assad, but which opposes Iran and Hezbollah. That makes Israel, a party with a major military presence, a wild card. Despite its false protestations to the contrary, it has intervened in the war, though only to interdict weapons shipments from Iran to Hezbollah. But to muddy the waters a bit, it has also attacked advanced Russian arms being shipped via Syria, possibly to Hezbollah.

Israel has warned Assad that it would punish him severely if he attacks it in retaliation for IAF air attacks on these weapons shipments. Israeli military sources have gone so far as to threaten to overturn his rule. This is, of course, nonsense, what would Israel do? Get rid of Assad and replace him with whom, with what? The Syrian Chalabi? The Syrian Falangist? How many allies does Israel think it has among the Syrian opposition? Of course, it could buy somebody off as it did with the South Lebanon Army, which served as Israel’s proxy in that country for a decade or more. But that’s both an expensive proposition, and even less likely to work now than it did then in southern Lebanon.

The truth for Israel is that Assad is their man. A guy made in its image. Like Mubarak. He maintained the peace in Sinai for decades. He embargoed Hamas in Gaza. He did Israel’s bidding without too much prompting.

Assad too holds back the Furies. Up till now, he maintained a stable, relatively peaceful border in the Golan. He was predictable and quiescent, except for his little nuclear escapade with the North Koreans. So what will come after? Le deluge. The Nusra Front, Al Qaeda, Alawites, Sunnis. All fighting for their slice of the territorial pie. That could leave the country in a mess, much as Lebanon was during and long after its own civil war. In such a situation, Syria poses a grave threat to Israel. Instability could easily lead to development of a native Hezbollah style opposition.

On the other hand, Israel could play off the protagonists one against the other as it did between Fatah and Hamas after the latter first began; or as it did between the Maronites, Shiites, and Sunnis in Lebanon. As long as there is a reasonable balance of power in Syria, and one ethnic group doesn’t overpower others, the resulting stalemate might force them to fight each other rather than Israel. That’s why Daniel Pipes, in typically diabolical fashion for him, suggests that Israel support whichever side appears to be losing. In his mind, the more the animals slaughter each other the less they’ll slaughter Jews.

Complicating this further are the various proxy standoffs among the parties: Russia against the U.S. Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey against the Alawite Assad, who is backed by the Shiite Iranians. It’s enough to make one dizzy. But the end result of all of this ethnic fragmentation is an exceedingly dangerous situation. Already 80,000 have died, 1.5-million are refugees. In other similar ethnic wars in Rwanda, Serbia-Kosovo, Congo hundreds of thousands have been slaughtered. Unless all parties aren’t exceedingly careful, this could be Syria’s future.

If you layer over this the larger war playing out between Israel and Iran, including their respective backers, the U.S. and Russia (again), this is a very high stakes game. But unlike poker, there may be no winners.

A further instructive historical example might be the Spanish Civil War, in which Nazi Germany used Franco as its proxy while Soviet Russia and the international left used the Loyalists as their proxy. In that conflict, the Nazis especially tested out their latest weapons systems, which would go on to “productive” use in the greater war that followed. As that Civil War was a rehearsal for World War II, might Syria be a rehearsal for an even greater regional conflict to follow? Let’s also not forget that this War presaged one of the greatest crimes in history, the Holocaust. I don’t believe it can come anywhere near that in the Syrian conflict. But the danger exists.

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2012 Democracy Index Ranks Israel 37th

by Richard Silverstein on May 18, 2013 · 7 comments

in Mideast Peace

The Economist’s 2012 Democracy Index (access may require site registration, which is free) ranks Israel 37th among 167 countries. It gets reasonably high marks in most political categories. But Israel falls down severely in the civil liberties category, where it receives a 5.9 ranking out of 10. Its overall placement puts it in the category of “flawed democracies.” Within that category, it placed 12th.

To be forthright, Israel does rank higher than other MENA countries, including the most arguably democratic country in the region (aside from Israel), Turkey. But compared to western or Asian democracies and the U.S., to which Israel traditionally likens itself, it falls distinctly short.

One of my readers tells me that in French Wikipedia the hasbarafia have falsified the reporting of this Index and moved Israel up to 16th place. I find it amazing that someone would find there was any value in doing such a thing.

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Russian Media Exposes Identity of CIA’s Moscow Station Chief

by Richard Silverstein on May 18, 2013 · 14 comments

in Mideast Peace

RT’s original uncensored report which exposes Stephen Holmes’ identity.

I’m more used to breaking stories concerning the Mossad than I am the CIA. But in this case, Russia Today (now known as RT) dropped a scoop right in my lap.

The main thrust of this story deals with the exposure of an accused CIA operative, Ryan Fogle, who was arrested in Moscow several days ago. Fogle’s “cover” was a job as third political secretary of the U.S. embassy. His “crime” was an attempt to recruit a Russian agent to work for the CIA.

The entire incident, replete with fake wigs and an alleged letter of invitation to the Russian to spy on behalf of Uncle Sam, reeked of a put-up job. Either Fogle was the dumbest spy ever to work for this country; or the Russians are the worst con artists in the history of counter-espionage practice.

Though I have no idea what really happened, reading the RT story, it appears the FSB was extremely unhappy with unspecified CIA activities in Russia and had warned the station chief that it was walking a fine line. I’m guessing that nothing as extravagant as what the Russians claim actually happened. But that the Russians set-up Fogle, and his arrest and expulsion were a warning to the U.S. to get back into line.

But here’s the real scoop: in the RT story, it exposed the identity of the CIA’s Moscow station chief. His name is Stephen Holmes. You’ll find the original story displayed here. This is a link to the censored version.

So the real question is what happened to this story and why. Presumably, the FSB wanted to expose the CIA station chief. Doing so would blow his cover and render him less effective as a spook. If that’s the case, it might have been further revenge for Holmes’ refusal to rein in his operatives when the FSB requested that he do so.

But why censor the report after you’ve exposed him? A tug of war within the Kremlin? Political operatives cooling off the FSB? A complaint from the U.S. embassy? A threat the U.S. would expose the identity of the SVR (Russia’s overseas intelligence service) station chief in DC? At any rate, you can’t put the genie back in the bottle. America will have to respond with a tit for tat. And where does that leave us?

Just when the U.S. and Russia were making attempts to patch up a frayed relationship, it appears that either Putin or the spy apparatus want to return us to the days of the very Cold War. It’s a time that ex-KGBniks like Putin remember well. Perhaps they feel nostalgic for it. Perhaps they don’t care whether Syria goes up in flames and want to topple a joint effort to negotiate an end to the crisis there.

At any rate, I expect that Mr. Holmes may be returning home himself a bit sooner than expected.

A number of media outlets have reported this story, though I don’t believe any have reported Holmes’ name. I do so here because RT has already done so. It will only be a matter of hours before someone else will do so in the western media.

Russia’s FSB reveals identity of CIA Moscow station chief

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Israel Poorest of OECD Countries, 5th Largest Income Gap

by Richard Silverstein on May 14, 2013 · 48 comments

in Mideast Peace

Comparative rates of poverty/income distribution Israel (in red) vs OECD average (blue)

Today the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which monitors economic well-being among 39 countries of the developed world, released its 2013 findings.

It found that Israel’s poverty rate of 20.9% was the highest of all member states. Israel’s nearest “competitor” was Mexico at 20.4%. Anyone who has visited Mexico understands how severe the problem is there. in Israel, it’s worse. Even Spain and Greece suffering from severe recession have far lower rates. The average poverty rate for all OECD countries is 11.1%. The OECD also found that Israel had the fifth largest income disparity.

“You don’t see him from a meter away.” (Yudit Ilany)

Some other salient statistics: the child poverty rate average for all OECD nations is 13.3%. For Israel, it is 28.8%. Israel had the 4th largest rise in child poverty between 2007-2011.

I marvel at the comments of some here when they read these statistics, who claim that Israel’s economic numbers are depressed by Haredi men and Israeli Palestinian women who deliberately absent themselves from the country’s economic system. The problem with this approach is that the OECD statistical tables correctly blame a nation and not individual citizens if they are left out of the system. It is up to the nation to ensure economic benefits are available to all.

In other words, contrary to what the some would have us believe, people by and large don’t embrace poverty as their destiny. Nor may nations sentence entire segments of their population to such a fate without it being reflected in the OECD tables. Many other nations have found ways to spread economic benefits more equitably. In fact, Israel used to have such a system.

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Cartoon Satire Skewers Stephen Hawking’s Attackers

by Richard Silverstein on May 14, 2013 · 10 comments

in Mideast Peace

Eli valley cartoon on stephen hawking The Forward’s Eli Valley has penned a deliciously sly, knowing send-up of the hasbara bonanza that followed on Stephen Hawking’s cancellation of his talk at the Shimon Peres conference. Those of you who followed it could read any number of the hasbarafia who noted that Hawking’s speech processor contained an Intel chip developed in Israel. Haaretz’s Chemi Shalev even used the disgusting, condescending term “poster boy” to describe Hawking’s supposed relation to the BDS movement.

Valley titles his cartoon, The Hypocrisy of Stephen Hawking. But don’t be fooled because he’s speaking in the voice of the pro-Israel crowd who were in high dudgeon over the affair. He begins his list of Israel’s achievements with the Intel processor, but by the end he’s claiming Hawking’s teeth contain phosphorus:

Teeth: Teeth contain phosphorus. Israel is a global leader in white phosphorus technology.

By then, the joke’s on the hasbara crowd, who began thinking Valley would ratify their prejudices, and ended feeling confused and even betrayed. That’s the hidden power of the best satire. The target may read it believing it reinforces his worst prejudices. But by the end, he develops a sinking, queasy feeling in his stomach that something’s not quite right. As Dylan once sang:

Something’s happenin’ here but you don’t know what it is,
Do you, Mr. Jones?

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IDF Agrees to Forego Use of White Phosphorus…Sorta

by Richard Silverstein on May 13, 2013 · 23 comments

in Mideast Peace

IDF rains white phosphorus indiscriminately on civilian targets

Yesh Din and other Israeli human rights NGOs sued the IDF over its use of white phosphorus during Operation Cast Lead and in similar conflicts. It is deemed by many as a chemical weapon, especially when used as the IDF does. It is not allowed to be used in or near civilian populations, which is precisely how Israel uses it. It also dropped the napalm-like substance directly on civilians targets causing grievous injuries. Scores of Gazans died or were maimed by the toxic, highly flammable material during the 2009 war. The only time it’s legal to use it in combat is to provide smokescreen cover for combat operations. While the IDF maintains that was what it did, the evidence in the form of civilian casualties refutes that.

Recently, facing a difficult hearing before what would likely have been a skeptical Supreme Court, the IDF announced it would stop using white phosphorus in populated areas. So far so good. But as in every matter concerning Israel’s army, the devil is in the details:

The IDF has decided “to avoid the use in built-up areas of artillery shells containing white phosphorus, with two narrow exceptions,” the state said in an announcement to the court.

Yuval Roitman, who represented the state in the petition, added: This “has been decided in the IDF as a matter of policy … even though this is not a commitment in a legal sense.” The state’s decision emphasizes that while this is current IDF policy it could change in the future.

The State wants to appear to have renounced use of white phosphorus while not really doing so. Note those “two narrow exceptions.” I’m trying to ascertain what they are. They have been conveniently omitted from any court filings or documents. But I’m guessing they may be wide enough to drive a Mack truck through. Also note the State affirms that the policy is only temporary and may be changed at the discretion of the army itself. Further, the army makes a big deal out of the fact that while this is a change of policy, it isn’t a legally binding agreement forced upon it. This is the equivalent of the defendant who cops a plea without an admission of guilt.

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Israel Opens Secret Military-Intelligence Mission in United Arab Emirates to Threaten Iran

by Richard Silverstein on May 13, 2013 · 7 comments

in Mideast Peace

The latest Israeli budget under consideration in the Knesset reveals that Israel opened a new mission in an unnamed Gulf State in the past year. Though the identity of the state is supposed to be a secret (the linked Haaretz article doesn’t explicitly name it) given the delicate nature of Israeli relations with Arab countries in the region, my source informs me that it is the United Arab Emirates. It is one of several Gulf states feeling threatened by the so-called Iranian threat.

Israel is eager to reinforce the sense of isolation and encirclement against Iran and what better way to do this than to make common cause with one of the competing powers in the region. My source informs me that the purpose of the new mission is to coordinate and plan strategies for containing Iran. Though I don’t know this for a fact, the main purpose of this new government outpost would appear to be intelligence and military liaison. I don’t think Israel is making friends in UAE in order to engage in cultural exchange programs. This is strictly business–the business of taking Iran down a peg or two or three.

Recently, the NY Times reported (this is the Jerusalem Post’s story) the U.S. was preparing a $10-billion arms package to send advanced weaponry to Israel, the Saudis and UAE in order to battle that Iranian threat. The notoriously unreliable Times of Israel also reports a so-called “moderate crescent” alliance taking shape among the Saudis, Israel, UAE, Turkey and Jordan. It too would have the goal of offering mutual defense against Iran. If this report is credible (given the Times of Israel’s record, that’s by no means guaranteed), then the secret mission could be part of this project, since it would enable Israel and the UAE to coordinate their efforts much more intensively. Personally, it could be a total crock. But even if it is, it does indicate the “thinking” of some Israeli strategists who have delusional visions of creating a Middle Eastern version of NATO to deter Iran.

This news comes on the heels of yesterday’s hijacking and hacking of an advanced Israeli drone likely by Iran or forces closely associated like Hezbollah. All of this is part of the nasty covert war going on among all these various states. I’ve warned many times here before that it isn’t far from covert or overt war. All it takes is one catastrophic failure, one stupid decision. This is a tinderbox waiting to erupt in flames.