A miracle is in the offing. I, who have reported here about Israeli national security matters for two decades, and experienced much despair and hopelessness over the constant suffering and bloodshed, now see a ray of light in the darkness. Things are happening that I never thought possible. Dare we hope?
Developments over the past months have pointed to major regional realignment of forces and nations. Last month, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations severed nearly a decade earlier. Talks that led up to this agreement included reducing military commitments to proxy wars in Syria and Yemen. As I wrote, two of the most powerful figures in the Middle East, Ayatollah Khamenei and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, each enjoying a domineering presence in their respective countries, decided that constant warfare was no longer in their interests. Both determined it was more important to focus on domestic development.
Equally important, Oman has for months served as mediator between the US and Iran as they searched for ways to restore a nuclear understanding which had been jettisoned by Donald Trump in 2017. News reports say a deal is imminent. It is some of the most important news to come out of the region since the 2015 JCPOA agreement.
It’s astonishing that Khamenei, who has railed against western powers pressuring Iran to restrain its nuclear program, has now professed himself to be satisfied at the prospect of a deal. No less astonishing is Bibi Netanyahu’s acquiescence. He was the most implacable enemy of a nuclear agreement and railed against it in venues from the United Nations to the US Congress for a decade or more. Now he’s turned into a pussy-cat. He says this is something he can live with. How the world turns!
Israel may be odd-man-out when the dust settles. It has hitched its wagon to an anti-Iran alliance with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, which may be unraveling. Israeli hopes to bring the Saudis into the Abraham Accords appear to be receding. Israeli blustering about an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is no longer viable as it would face US and possibly even Saudi opposition.
During the Trump administration, MBS attempted to browbeat Palestinian Pres. Abbas into a deal with the Israelis that offered nothing to them but hush money. Now the Saudis have returned to their commitment to Palestinian statehood. It is a remarkable about-face. This cannot make the current far-right government happy.
One of the geniuses of the arrangement about to be announced, is that it is not a formal agreement, which would force each side to spell out in fine detail every provision. A formal protocol permits each side to understand their responsibilities clearly, while limiting misunderstandings when one side believes the other has reneged (as happened to Iran after Trump’s withdrawal).
On the other hand, an “understanding” as the deal is being called, allows for ambiguity. It commits each party to the general provisions without the minutiae of a formal agreement. It also creates a helpful ambiguity regarding hardline opponents of the deal on both sides. There is no text that they can analyze to point out weaknesses. Any accusations can be finessed by the Iranian and US administrations. They can interpret the arrangement in any manner that is most helpful domestically.
The outline of the agreement includes an Iranian commitment not to exceed 60% enrichment of uranium (90% is needed for a nuclear weapon). It will also release the remaining US prisoners it holds, including Siamak Namazi, who has been imprisoned for ten years. Iran will stop attacks by its Iraqi proxies against US forces in Syria, while the US pledges not to introduce any new sanctions. The US will release $20-billion in frozen assets which Iran may use for humanitarian aid. Iran also seeks to restore $7-billion in frozen oil revenue held in South Korea. This too may be included in the deal.
The agreement is limited in scope. It will not solve all outstanding issues. But it is one part of a larger puzzle, whose pieces are increasingly fitting into place. Together, they could mark the most promising development in the Middle East for a generation.
Now I understand the bits and pieces Aljazeera Arabic was teasing about. Thanks
The nuclear ‘understanding’ between the United States and Iran is not so important.
What’s really important is the success or failure of the current Ukrainian counteroffensive against Putin’s invading army,
Iran is betting big that their Moscow-Tehran alliance will mean that Moscow will provide Iran with support and assistance in Iran’s efforts to become a regional superpower and hegemony .
However, a decisive defeat for Moscow in its Ukraine invasion will be a defeat for Iran and would set off a weakening in Moscow’s capacity for offering support and assistance to its emergent Mideast partner.
Israel should watch closely what’s happening in the trenches in Ukraine.
@ Chad: You don’t understand Iran, you don’t understand Russia. You don’t understand pretty much anything.
The relations between Russia and Iran are purely transactional. Neither has any interest in The other except what they can gain in short term self-interest. Russia has absolutely no interest in Iran beyond the drones it is providing; and as a potential customer for its nuclear technology.
For example, Iran and Russia are both involved in Syria. Yet they have almost nothing to do with each other there. Israel attacks Iranian positions and Russia does nothing to stop this. Russia has an understanding with Israel (not Iran) about this. While Iran doesn’t expect Russia to protect it.
Iran could care less whether Russia wins or loses in Ukraine. The only consideration is whether Russia will continue to buy its drones.
As usual you are demonizing Iran and making sweeping, conspiratorial, unfounded claims about it. You haven’t a clue.
Your claim that a nuclear deal with Iran is “not so important” is also ludicrous. American and Israeli newspapers have been reporting the story breathlessly for days. That would mean they’re reporting a story that is unimportant. I think they have a better idea of what’s important than you.
Your comment only proves you are mouthing the Israeli line. Now that Bibi has thrown in the towel about stopping a new agreement, you’re pivoting to new anti-Iran talking points. Pathetic.
Would it be too much to ask Iran to stop aiding Russia’s war on Ukraine?
@ Potter: Since Iran has so few major power allies, it would be too much to ask. If western state didn’t demonize Iran and permitted trade and normal relations, it wouldn’t need Russia. But since that’s not possible, they have little choice.
No coverage in Western media – 4 day visit
China’s Xi Jinping hosted visiting Palestinian President
China elevates ties with Palestine, pledging support.
Proxy wars … neocon and the wars on behalf of IL … Iraq-Libya-Syria. The Arab States have had enough and pivoted to China for relief … biggest consumer of fossil fuels. Russia is totally irrelevant. Don’t make it bigger. Netanyahu allies in former Soviet bloc countries: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Hungary-Austria-Czech Republic-Romania-Bulgaria-Poland-Russia and Baltic States. Missing: Ukraine.
Iran was “the biggest problem we face in our region
Silence by AIPAC and Netanyahu … don’t interfere with domestic matters Joe …
Quid pro Quo
Netanyahu: Israeli judicial reform to advance, ’moderately, responsibly’
At weekly cabinet meeting PM Netanyahu announces an immediate, unilateral return to judicial overhaul legislation.
Watch the silence from the White House the coming days …
Meanwhile Barbara Leaf, assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, slated to meet both political and military leaders and discuss ’constraining Iran’s destabilizing behavior’
Her spokesperson: Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf will travel to Israel and the West Bank June 17-24 and to Jordan June 24-25.
Is this a temporary Netanyahu flip-flop? Is there more to this deal than meets the eye? Netanyahu says this is something he can live with but six days ago he said any agreement reached with Iran regarding its nuclear program will not be binding on Jerusalem. Which is it?
Is there a quid pro deal between Biden and Netanyahu? What does Netanyahu get in return for going along with the deal? More American UN Vetoes on resolutions against Israel settlements? A joint American-Israel attack plan on Iran?
@ Steve Benassi: Bibi said both things in the same statement. He can live with the deal but reserves the right to act independently. But the point here is that he can’t attack Iran independently. Theoretically he could. But he can’t exact the sort of damage that would be necessary to set back Iran’s nuclear program in any significant way. So the only thing that really matters is that he said he can live with it.
As for what Bibi gets, we shall see. The visit to Saudi Arabia to lobby for it to join the Abraham Accords is one part of the bargain I’m sure.
What deal? Global power grab is fluid past weeks …
Blinken pours cold water on mini nuclear deal
Leaves much space for interpretation what Blinken and NSC are up to.
Rumors circulating in #Iran Telegram news channels that AmCit hostage @sianamazi informed his family he’ll be freed from Evin Prison w/in days are completely unfounded. [Source: Jared Genser June 1, 2023]
@ Oui: This is completely unreliable. All accounts of the possible deal include a provision for releasing US citizen hostages. There are only 2 I know of, one of which is Namazi. Biden would never accept freedom for one, and abandon the other.
Namazi’s statement was made before news of the potential deal was reported. Quoting this as if his statement came afterward is irresponsible, even reckless, since a man’s life and freedom are at stake.
Status non-negotiations with Iran …
Department Press Briefing – June 21, 2023
Morocco cancels hosting Negev Forum and on Abraham Accords, breakthrough w/o Saudis at the table.
UK and EU Set to breach Iran nuclear deal | The Guardian |
The UK and other European powers are expected to announce plans to breach the 2015 Iran nuclear deal for the first time when they confirm they are not going to lift sanctions on Tehran’s use of missiles this October as required in the agreement.
The EU Commission with Michel-VDL and Borrell following in the footsteps of US President Trump.