Israel has once again passed another milestone in corruption. For the first time, the president has tasked a party leader to form a government who is currently on trial facing criminal charges. Conviction would not only end his political career, but land him in prison. Yesterday, Pres. Rivlin faced the choice of awarding either Bibi Netanyahu or Yair Lapid with the task of forming a government. In prior consultation, the various parties offered 52 votes for Bibi to form the government and 45 for Lapid. A president usually offers the candidate with the most votes the mandate. But there is no rule saying he must do so.
Another milestone of sorts is that one of the parties the president consulted is led by leading figures in Jewish terrorist circles. One, Betzalel Smotrich, was accused by a Shin Bet chief of conspiracy to bomb a Palestinian target during the Gaza withdrawal. The other, Itamar Ben Gvir, threatened Yitzhak Rabin with assassination only three weeks before he was murdered. The key role played by this Kahanist party in a possible future government further normalizes the concept of Jewish terrorism and makes it a central factor in national politics. This isn’t far from the way in which the Nazi Party came to power in the years leading up to the 1933 election.
Many Israelis hoped Rivlin would break with tradition, since the country had never faced a situation in which the leading candidate was also under criminal indictment and in the middle of a corruption trial. There was some additional indication he might do so given that the president had long been a supporter of Netanyahu, who had betrayed him when he became a presidential candidate. Rivlin is known as one of the few Old Guard Likudnik leaders–independent, honest and principled. But in the end, he showed that he was above all a Party Man.
Though Netanyahu now has the first crack at forming a government, he will find it exceedingly difficult to do so. He needs 61 seats, but currently has only 52. To reach the magic number, he will need to persuade Naftali Bennett’s Yamina Party to join him. That will only get to 59. There are few options from which to obtain those two remaining seats. The most obvious one would be inviting the Islamist Raam Party (four seats) to join (or at least support the ruling coalition from the outside).
To this end, Netanyahu arranged for its leader, Mansour Abbas, to address the nation earlier in the week. In his “historic” speech, Abbas, whose Party opposes Zionism and supports the Palestinian Right of Return, sounded like an obedient and faithful Arab lap-dog. He hit all the major talking points to reassure Israeli Jewish voters that he was a good and decent Arab. Not the bomb-throwing firebrands they’re used to hating like the members of the Joint List, from whom Abbas broke before the election.
It is the height of irony for Arab-hating parties like the Likud to now treat Abbas as the savior of Israeli democracy. Also, it’s ironic that Israel lambastes Iran for being a nation run by ayatollahs, when Raam, a party associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, is aligned with Islamic fundamentalism. But what is not ironic is that the Islamic fundamentalism of Raam is a mirror image of the Judeo-extremism of Israel’s Orthodox parties. Their misogyny, homophobia, religious supremacy, and hatred of secular values are of a piece.
This little bit of Arabwashing didn’t mollify right-wing extremist elements of Netanyahu’s coalition, notably the Religious Zionism faction including two former Jewish terrorists, Itamar Ben Gvir and Betzalel Smotrich, who want nothing to do with the word “Arab.” While Netanyahu is counting how many seats he needs to get a majority, Ben Gvir and Smotrich are counting how many settler0 votes they’ll lose if they cohabit with “Arabs.”
Netanyahu has a few other possible tricks up his sleeve. He could try to pick off two members of right-wing parties (New Hope, Blue and White) outside his circle. He’s already tried that without success. But he will doubtless redouble his efforts. As they say, everyone has a price, and Bibi is an expert at finding that sweet spot that will entice someone to betray Party and principles, because he has none of his own.
If he fails in two weeks, the task falls to Yair Lapid, leader of the center-right Yesh Atid. He too has few options, but perhaps a bit more leeway than Netanyahu. He needs 16 votes for a majority. The two main parties he needs to entice are Yamina and New Hope, two rightist parties with 13 seats between them. He has a few options to pick up the remaining three: he can add the Palestinian Joint List; or Raam; or one of the religious parties (Shas, United Torah Judaism).
Pursuing either of these is fraught, each for different reasons: New Hope and Yamina are right-wing anti-Arab parties. They may refuse to participate in such a coalition with either Raam or Joint List. However, the lure of the prime ministership, which Lapid is dangling before Bennett, may persuade him to overcome his racism in return for grasping the golden scepter of power.
The problem with including a religious party is 1) they might refuse to join a coalition dominated by secular parties; 2) Avigdor Lieberman, an anti-religious figure, may balk at co-habiting with either of these religious parties.
If Lapid fails, then it almost ensures a fifth election. The only factor that will change in that case will be the corruption trial of the prime minister, which may have been concluded by then. A verdict against him will ensure his forced withdrawal from politics. A verdict in his favor is a wild card. No one can predict how it might impact the outcome of the next election.
There are, of course, other wild possibilities. This new Knesset could unite to pass a law declaring that a political leader on trial for a criminal offense is prohibited from holding the prime ministership. Another prospect Bibi has bruited is that he could become a candidate for president. As president, he would be immune from prosecution while in office (seven years). Alternatively, he could pardon himself, though this too has never happened before. It would also be an exceedingly unpopular decision.
There is virtually no chance of a quick verdict in Bibi’s trial. There are hundreds of witnesses and it will take years to conclude unless he pleads out in some sweet deal.
@ Shai: nonsense. Israel criminal trials don’t take “years,” no matter how complicated they are.
That’s not true. Complicated white collar trials can and do take years. Olmert’s Holyland trial took almost two years, and Bibi’s case is more complicated.
A vibrant Democracy in action.
How many American Presidents have been criminal defendants, much less, been convicted?
@ Alice: You’re giving us much unintended amusement. American presidents, for all their vices and foibles, have almost never (with one exception) been outright crooks. So thankfully, they can’t be compared to Israeli PMs, many of whom have been quite corrupt.
The idea that Israel is a “democracy” in this or any other matter is laughable. Not only is Bibi a crook, he’s done his damndest to destroy any last vestiges of Israeli democracy.
I warn you that the role of commenter s is not to cheerlead for Israel (or Palestine). The comment threads are meant for in depth discussion and reasoned debate. “Democracy is action” is sloganeering and not suitable for this blog.
Israeli politicians are no better or worse than American politicians.
That Israeli democracy can have fair trials that convict and imprison her leaders is laudable.
I said ‘Democracy in action’, which is not slogan.
@ Alice: Israeli politicians are not only far worse Than there US counterparts, they represent a nation in far more distress and dsyfunction.
As for cheerleading, I’m the only who makes that determination, not you. So you’ll accommodate to my definition and respect it or you won’t comment here.
A twice-impeached one-term President.
Death, mayhem, sedition and blood in the Capitol Building.
Nationwide protests against injustice that caused billions of dollars in property loss. An inadequate response to Covid 19.
Mass shootings. A border crisis, and now scapegoating Asian Americans.
I’d call that distress and dysfunction
But since you haven’t set foot in Israel in forty years, it’s possible you are ‘projecting’ Israel’s dysfunction and distress.
Please clarify your definition of ‘cheerleaderism’ so we can better avoid it.
@ Alice: Trump is an outlier as anyone should know.
And as for the inane claim that you can’t know a place without physically being in it–tell it to the engineers who’ve studied the Martian climate and geology their entire careers and designed the Rover and other equipment for visits to Mars. Tell it to the historians who’ve written brilliant books about Roman history. In fact, I know much more about certain aspects of Israeli life than you do. If that wasn’t so I couldn’t report stories that you’ve never heard of till I reported them. So no, the idea that someone must physically be in a place to really understand it is outmoded, if it was ever relevant.
You know what a cheerleader is. I don’t have to tell you. So don’t do it.
Is Trump the one exception? Or was it Nixon? Or Clinton?
@ Rex: Trump is the exception. Nixon and Clinton were not rapists or corrupt. Their misdeeds related largely to abuse of presidential power.
Further we’ve had 225 years of president’s whose records have been relatively unblemished. Compared to 70 years of yours whose records have been deeply troubled, especially in the past few decades.
Lately, Israeli prime Ministers and presidents have been out and out crooks or rapists or both
“Nixon and Clinton were not rapists or corrupt” – this is not a serious statement. Corrupt is exactly what Nixon was, but of course he was never prosecuted for his crimes because the next president, his own former vice president, pardoned him (not exactly the hallmarks of a great democracy). And a rapist is very likely what Clinton is. Trump is, of course, both corrupt and a rapist (and an insurrection inciter, to boot).
The pattern is clear in both countries. Israeli prime ministers and presidents have been investigated and in some cases charged, tried, and punished. American presidents have had their crimes ignored or pardoned.
@ Rex: Nixon was not corrupt. He was a paranoid megalomaniac who encouraged commission of criminal acts. But not corrupt.
The far right has flung claims that Clinton raped women. But there is no credible evidence this is the case. Nor was he ever charged or convicted. While Israel has had a president convicted of rape.
Israeli politics is far more corrupt than American. And sexual crimes are far less investigated all around, including at the highest level. This blog and its reporting on such stories is clear evidence of that. The question is not how many are punished in Israel, but how many literally get away with murder without any investigation; or with an investigation that ends with no charges being laid because the suspect is too powerful.
Speaking of pardons, you’ve clearly not seen the list of Jewish terrorists who’ve been pardoned by Israeli presidents. Not a single Palestinian on the list though.
You are done in this thread.
[comment deleted: comment must be directly related to the post. Stay on topic. And no sermons, please.]