Today was a watershed in the road to the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. It was, of course, the day that two of the four centrist candidates dropped out of the race and announced their endorsement of Joe Biden. But no matter how critical today was, tomorrow will be even more important. Because if Bernie Sanders does well tomorrow, all the political manipulation involved in making today happen will hardly matter.
Despite what Joe Biden claims, the withdrawal of Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar was a highly orchestrated event. We don’t know how pressure was exerted and what was promised by whom and to whom. But as sure as the sun’s gonna shine (as the song lyric goes), Biden’s camp–along with the entire Democratic Establishment threatened with being thrown off the gravy-train if Bernie wins–pulled out every stop to get them to exit.
As recently as yesterday, I wrote here that Elizabeth Warren was playing a positive, constructive role in the race and I welcomed her remaining in it. But now the circumstances have changed radically. There is no promise that all her votes would migrate to Bernie if she drops out. But starting today, her continued presence is a distraction from the battle at hand. That is, the battle between a radical, authentic left-wing candidate who represents the working-class and those in solidarity with it; and a Party elite desperately seeking to preserve its prerogatives and the status quo.
The longer Warren stays in, the more likely we will have a brokered convention. And if there is a brokered convention it appears more than likely that it will go to a second-round or beyond; in which case superdelegates, who last time ensured Hillary Clinton’s nomination, will ensure Biden’s.
Glenn Greenwald has sketched out a convincing case for a brokered convention ending up much like the Chicago Democratic convention in 1968. Then, Richard Daley and Hubert Humphrey joined to both beat down the student anti-war activists supporting Eugene McCarthy’s candidacy and engineer a Humphrey takeover of the convention and nominating process. The ensuing riots resulting from their success at manipulating the system. The violent suppression appalled America, shattered the Party, and led to an eventual Nixon victory.
In the event that the Party tries to do this in 2020, I don’t think the level of hatred and violence would be the same. I don’t foresee riots in Milwaukee streets. But the level of rancor will be similar (that’s partly what I wrote about yesterday). Nor will Biden be the type of candidate who can bind up wounds and heal rifts caused by the nominating process. He’s no Abe Lincoln. In that sense, Joe is more like Hubert Humphrey, who was a deer caught in the headlights of violence that spiraled out of his control.
Though it may be difficult to predict the future, I can foresee a Party riven by a sense of betrayal at the theft of the nomination. Sanders will not be the good sport he was after Clinton won the nomination. He will not campaign for Biden. His supporters will not loyally switch their allegiance to the Party-dictated candidate. They will not only stay home, they will actively campaign against Biden. They will protest his rallies. They will embarrass him.
They may do the same to Trump. But that won’t matter. His support will be solid and unwavering. His supporters will go to the polls. They will win. Not only will they win, they will win more decisively than Trump beat Clinton. Biden is, if anything, an even weaker candidate than Clinton. He’s older, he’s more infirm (mentally rather than physically), he’s less coherent in his platform and public presentation. If you add to that the hammering Biden will suffer at the hands of Trump and his digital pirate crew, it won’t be pretty.
What the Party elite is doing now is ugly. I doubt it will work. Tomorrow will tell the tale. With victories in delegate-rich states like Texas and California, Sanders could torpedo this last-ditch effort. Then this closing of ranks will be too little, too late. Then the Party mandarins will have to decide whether they want to join the campaign and create the sort of society and legislation Bernie envisions or sit out like spoiled children who’ve had their toys taken from them.
If, on the other hand, tomorrow is a draw and the elites smell blood in the water, then we will have intra-Party warfare and blood will be drawn. I hope to God it doesn’t happen.
I am no shill for Israel. I just don’t want Sanders following the Scandinavian model and doubling taxes on the middle-class.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bernie-sanderss-scandinavian-fantasy/2020/02/27/ee894d6e-599f-11ea-9b35-def5a027d470_story.html
https://taxfoundation.org/bernie-sanders-scandinavian-countries-taxes/
It bears repeating, that a President Sanders will not rule by fiat. In reality, he will have to work closely with Congress in order to his get his revolutionary changes to the American economy enacted into law.
I don’t believe a President Sanders, with a base smaller than Trump’s, will get the support from Congress that he will need in order to succeed.
@ Lemontree: “Doubling taxes on the middle class?” What a fool. If a middle-class family is paying thousands, if not tens-of-thousands a year on health care, higher education and other expenses which will become virtually free, what does it matter if their taxes go up? The overall net effect is a massive decrease in what the poor and middle class will be paying.
You make a further error in supposing that because Sanders has held up the Scandinavian model for his own philosophy that this means he will adopt the Scandinavian tax model as well. Bernie is talking about the Scandinavian safety net and its social welfare programs. Not the tax system. But Sanders’ goal is to make the wealthiest pay the largest share of taxes to fund these programs. That is not happening now here and isn’t even happening, according to the articles to which you linked, in Scandinavian countries themselves.
Of course Sanders will not rule by fiat. But he will also not sit back and beg for comity as Obama did, allowing him to get virtually nothing accomplished except ACA, DACA and the finance bail out.
Sanders beats Trump in every major head to head poll. So you’re either pulling these figures out your ass, or don’t know what you’re talking about, or both. As for how Sanders would fare legislatively, I expect the GOP to be trounced in 2020. I expect at least a 50-50 chance of a Democratic Senate majority and a continuation of the House Democratic majority. That does not ensure smooth sailing for Bernei’s legislative package. But it does guarantee it will get a fair hearing and the chance that at some significant parts of it will be enacted in law.
You have conveniently dodged responding to my warnings about obscuring your comments by using an IP proxy and fake e mail. I put you on notice that this puts you in a suspect category here. I have little bandwidth for such nonsense and it arouses suspicion of who sent you and why you’re here.
Richard says:
“But Sanders’ goal is to make the wealthiest pay the largest share of taxes to fund these programs. ”
Ah yes, Bernie’s ‘wealth tax’.
A ‘wealth tax’ has never been tried in the United States, so were have to look at the international experience with wealth tax, especially the wealth tax in the European countries, and that suggests, “that there has been a general downward trend with the wealth tax across the word due to its limited revenue collection and its administrative difficulties.”
That said.
This ‘Conchy Joe’ recommends the wealthy use Bahamian off shore and private banks accounts!
https://taxfoundation.org/wealth-tax/#_ftn19
https://www.cato. org/publications/tax-budget-bulletin/taxing-wealth-capital-income
@ Lemontree:
What do you think the income tax is? It’s essentially a wealth tax, in which the wealthy have figured out how to game the system so they pay little or nothing of their wealth.
Again, no we don’t just as we don’t have to look at Scandinavian tax models to determine how Bernie’s tax plan would work. Sanders is smart enough to review all existing models and determine what would be best for the U.S. The tax structure he comes up with will certainly avoid any pitfalls others have experienced.
As I said before, stop using far right websites (like Cato). They have no credibility here and I will not permit you to promote them with links. You are done in this thread.
The Bottom Line
Income tax burdens vary so much by country because of the rates at which each country funds social insurance programs such as old-age pensions and health care. In some countries, such as the Netherlands, social insurance taxes are significantly higher than basic income taxes.
Each country also provides different levels of benefits to its citizens, and individuals get different returns on the sums they pay into social insurance programs based on personal factors including income, age, and health status.
Different countries also put taxpayers into different brackets based on their income level, marital status, and the number of dependents. So just because a country has an especially high or low overall income tax rate doesn’t tell you much about how you would fare in that country with all the circumstances that make up your unique situation.
[Source: Investopedia]
World Economic Forum in de Global Competitiveness Index
The Dutch ranking is 4th place – full universal health care and high ranking in happiness of life. What you get for free is a low rate of gun violence and no fear for one’s security. I personally know an Texan, NRA handgun toting individual, felt terrible coming to the Netherlands with his wife … sort of vulnerable or even naked. After a few months, his wife spends the evening out by herself, gets home late before midnight by public transportation, a city bus. Gets home quite safe. After six months, her husband had to admit he has never experienced the feeling of real security in his life.
No, the Dutch are NOT communists, never have been. They are following the AngloSaxon (British) model of capitalism, except with many social benefits in place for all. Bernie Sanders would be a centrist leaning to the right in Dutch politics and most likely would be very successful.
Richard, the party elite (just like everyone else in the party) is entitled to endorse the candidate they prefer. It’s both rational and morally justified for party leaders to encourage candidates with very little chance of winning to drop out to consolidate support for the candidate they most align with. If Sanders ends up with a majority of pledged delegates, that’s a different story, but with anything short of that, he’s not entitled to the nomination.
@ David: No one says Bernie is “entitled” to the nomination. You’ve created a straw man that doesn’t exist. The Party elite is not entitled to go into smoke filled rooms and strongarm candidates to drop out and engineer an outcome that is opaque. That is what they tried yesterday. If they succeed, I predict Trump will win. Perhaps handily.
Thank you Richard. Biden, yes a “nice guy” is Lazarus risen from the dead… propped up.. I think Biden will be weak against Trump. He may prevail but it will be a nail biter. But the Democratic establishment, the MSM in their infinite “wisdom” have put the scare in people. They have essentially done Trump’s work for him with regard to Bernie Sanders. Biden may be easier. But he’s a nice guy that people will rally behind. Me, I’m bitter. We really need the change that Sanders has been pushing for. Consolation prize will be that sanders made a dent.The movement will continue.
IMO Joe Biden Delivers A Decisive Blow to Bernie Sanders
A choice to be made by progressive America!
Richard, neither of us know what happened in conversations with Buttigieg and Klobuchar, or what others said to convince them to drop out. If by “strongarm” you mean some kind of threat or foul play, I’d agree with you. But if you mean offer them some political benefit in exchange for their support, what’s objectionable about that?
Again, what Buttigieg and Klobuchar did was completely rational. They had very little chance of winning and they both prefer Biden to Sanders. So why shouldn’t they help Biden at this point? Bloomberg did the same this morning. That’s how it’s supposed to work.
@ David: Offering a candidate a personal or political benefit in return for engaging in a specific act would normally be called bribery and be a criminal act. Very few politicians have been tried unless the exchange involved a personal benefit like cash or a specific political plum like a senate seat. But that doesn’t make it any less palatable. You & I both know promises were made. YOu and I both know this is seamy. How seamy we will see when Klobuchar and Buttigieg’s former staff start talking to reporters (and they will).
Despite hating Trump with every fiber of my being, his claim that there was a “quid pro quo,” though greasily self-interested, is very likely true. And if your claim is that back-room deals in smoke filled rooms is the way politics is supposed to work–not by me.
@David
“So why shouldn’t they help Biden at this point?”
Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar didn’t disappoint. Indeed politics is ugly business, always has been … it it’s up to Sanders and Warren to revolutionize CHANGE.
Allen Dulles – Mayor Daley – Joe Kennedy Sr. – Richard Nixon – Henry Kissinger – Richard Helms … just to name a few. A long list of candidates!
I agree with our Richard on this one. Keeping America safe with Trump or Biden??
Elizabeth Warren In A Team Huddle for Next Play?
Richard, I believe that ugly deals, not truly coercion, happened to get K and B to drop out. When you and others say it was the fine art of the Dem party elite, can you give some guidance as to who the probable strong players were? Someone has said Obama, but I don’t believe he’s all that powerful. It was probably some top visible people like Perez but also powerful behind-the-scenes players. Even Hillary? 🤢
I hope you can get back to me ….and that I find the reply! Thanks.
@ Toni: This is why presidential candidates have consiglieres who do this sort of dirty work. The guy who knows where all the bodies are buried. I don’t know Biden or his campaign well enough to know who that might be. But Biden certainly would have tried to call in chits with Obama to make those calls. And clearly OBama did call Buttigieg at least once we know of. Not to mention there are scores of Democratic campaign consultants who would do their damndest to ensure Biden is the candidate in order to be on the gravy train for future work should Biden win the general election.
As for specific names, Perez of course comes to mind, as does Neera Tanden. Anita Dunn is Biden’s campaign manager. She is a partner in SDKnickerbocker and fits the consigliere bill as well.