A curious thing happened in the past few days in the Israeli election race. Something I didn’t expect at all. Bibi Netanyahu’s Likud has lost momentum and fallen in a number of polls to 21 seats from a previous high of 24 seats or so. The Zionist Camp has advanced marginally to 24 (and in some polls, 25) seats.
None of this would matter except that several other developments have paralleled these results. The other rightist parties which would be Likud’s natural allies in a future governing coalition have also flagged. Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu has fallen from 11 seats in the current Knesset, to four seats in polls (that would remove his party altogether from Knesset, as 5 seats is the minimum threshold). Naftali Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi has fallen as well from its current Knesset level of 12, to 11 in the latest polls.
Everyone from the center to the left has rallied in the latest poll. Along with the rise in the Zionist Camp numbers, the Joint List is polling 13 seats, making it the third largest grouping in Knesset. Its fortunes have rallied because of a predicted 5% uptick in Israeli Palestinian participation at the polls over the last election (and nearly 8% uptick over the one previous to that). The new center-right Kulanu has added seats and now polls at 11.
If you do the math, and if Zionist Camp maintains 24 seats, and the other results remain close to the current projections, there is one kosher way the center-left can form a governing coalition (and one treif way, more on that later). But it poses a thorny issue for two different parties and two different ethnic groups within Israeli society. By combining Zionist Camp, Kulanu, Yesh Atid, Joint List and Meretz you get 66 seats. There’s an outside chance if one of the smaller parties drops out that they could pick up Shas, though this is an unlikely fit.
The thorny issue is the Joint List, which is composed of Israeli Palestinian parties and Hadash, a joint Jewish-Palestinian Party. No Israeli ruling coalition has ever included a Palestinian Party. So either this new coalition could make a major break with tradition or it could use tacit support of the Joint List to bolster it, but rule as a minority coalition. For many reasons, this option could be quite problematic. It would require staunch Zionists to agree to include Palestinian nationalists like Haneen Zoabi, who is widely detested among Israeli Jews, in a common cabinet. Or it would require the same staunch Zionists to rule with the tacit support of Israeli Palestinians.
If Jewish MKs cared more about democracy than ethnic solidarity, they would acknowledge that 13 seats makes the Joint List the third largest in the Knesset. To refuse to include such a major constituency fully in the political process would be a travesty of democracy. But we all know how that goes when it comes to such matters in Israel.
Should the center-left try to form a majority entirely ignoring the Israeli-Palestinian segment, they might have to do something as strange as including both Shas (and/or Yachad, which is Eli Yishai’s party) and Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman). That would get them to 62 seats, 69 if you include Yachad. Not only do Lieberman and Shas hate each other, ideologically they would make strange bedfellows with Labor. Not that such strange political groupings haven’t happened before. When they have, they were a recipe for political quagmire since no group within the coalition could move its own agenda. This majority would range from far-right secular nationalists like Lieberman to two Mizrahi rightist ultra-Orthodox parties. It would be a strange and ugly political animal.
It’s entirely possible that Yesh Atid and Kulanu, which are center-right parties, might refuse Labor’s offer and allow its chances to collapse. At which point, they can join with a rightist mono-racial coalition. Should this happen, there are many permutations which would permit a rightist coalition led by Likud.
In the event (even now, unlikely) a center-left government comes into existence, no one should start cheering. Don’t expect peace agreements, don’t even expect much-needed domestic reform revolving around social justice issues. This political formation, while slightly more ideologically homogeneous than recent ones, will still have awkward bedfellows. And it will have to relate in some way, even if awkwardly, to the fact that it needs at least tacit Palestinian support to survive.
A center-left government would offer the same hopes and suffer from the same disappointments America faced in 2008 after Obama’s election. The promise was so great and the results were so miserable. I suspect this is what will happen in Israel as well (the the major difference that in Israel there is no charismatic Great Israeli Hope, as Obama was in 2008).
Let’s also not forget that the Zionist Camp was formed by the merger of Labor with HaTehuah, itself an awkward alliance. Part of the agreement involved a rotation of prime ministers between Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni. This has happened only once in the past few decades in a 1984 Labor-Likud national unity government. There’s a good reason why it’s never happened since. There’s too much ego involved, too little willingness to share the “spoils” of power. I predict it won’t lead to a stable government.
Finally, unless the Joint List joins the government (again unlikely), there is little hope of a peace agreement with the Palestinians. Even with a center-left ideological composition, there isn’t enough will to compromise. You may hear the liberal-Zionist-friendly world media paint rosy portraits of the future, in the event this outcome materializes. But don’t believe them till you see the color of the money and the cards on the table.
There is one delicious irony about this election. At the rate Lieberman’s Party is currently polling, his Party may disappear altogether from Knesset. Those with good memory will remember it was Lieberman himself who spearheaded the legislation raising the threshold from 2.5 to 3.25%. At the time, he expected it would destroy the chances the Israeli Palestinian parties would be represented, since as distinct parties they could not cross the threshold. But they outsmarted him, joined together as a single Joint List, and he may be stuck picking up the pieces of his own political career come election day. “I’m lovin’ it!”
If this happens, it will have dramatic repercussions for the political future. The Israeli right is jockeying for position come the day Bibi retires from political life. Until now, the two main contenders have been Naftali Bennett and Lieberman. If Lieberman is eliminated from Knesset along with his entire Party, it will leave Bennett as the only logical standard bearer for the future. In fact, barring any major catastrophes, arrests, scandals, etc. he may be the future inheritor of the right-wing throne. I should add an asterisk here, as Moshe Kahlon is a wildcard. The former Likud darling’s Party has rallied from earlier poll results and appears to be making a last-minute surge. If that continues, he could become the new political flavor of the month, replacing Yair Lapid, who served that role in the last election.
Meretz too has been on the brink of elimination. They currently poll at 6 seats (earlier they were polling at 5). If they fall under 5 they too will disappear. Given their rise in the current poll, they appear safe (just barely).
As an addendum, let’s not forget the undecided voters. From 15-20% have still not made up their minds. My guess is that many of them are former Likud voters disgusted with Netanyahu and unsure whether to return to Likud or switch to Bennett or Lieberman. If I’m right, there could be some uptick in the results for any of these three parties.
This article profiles the undecided voters and notes they are 16% of the total. They are 2/3 women, 63% secular and 56% consider social-economic issues to be primary. That would bode well for Kahlon’s Kulanu Party, since he’s made this an important part of his platform. You’ll recall in the last election no one predicted Yesh Atid’s come-from-nowhere showing of 19 seats. It’s entirely possible this time many of the undecided will move from being former Likud to Kulanu voters. That could sweep the latter past the Joint List as third largest Party, and make it a kingmaker between a left or right-wing coalition. Keep in mind that Kahlon is a former Likud minister. As such his heart will be more in a coalition with his former political colleagues on the right.
Another possible way the “centre-left” could form a coalition is with both haredi parties instead of the Arab list. If Herzog promises to cancel the criminal sanctions for yeshiva students dodging the draft, Shas and UTJ would join Herzog. Might be difficult to convince Lapid of this though.
What are your thoughts on the plausibility of such a scenario Richard?
I just updated the post to include that possibility. Historically, governing coalitions that include secular and religious parties are extremely dysfunctional because of their ideological disparities. Such a prospect for the next government would be like a poorly made sausage.
I read that Rivlin floated the idea of a unity coalition of Labour/Likud. What’s interesting is if that happened, wouldn’t that make the leader of the Arab List the Official Opposition in Knesset?
@ David Carmel: “Opposition” or “Enemy??”
The united list already said they will not join the government… they even wont vote split with meretz. I think the most the labor gov could hope for is support like Rabin had. I dont really think the government will last more then two years so no worries about pm tzipi. I am cautiously optimistic about next week’s elections.
@ ben: Please stop spreading falsehoods. We’ve already covered this weeks ago here. Herzog was the first one to rule out any participation by Palestinian parties in a ruling coalition. It is HE who rejected the Palestinians and his rejection is racist. They are reacting to his rejection.
Sorry i had gotten the information from jpost http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Arab-Joint-List-rejects-idea-of-joining-Herzog-led-government-392787
@ Richard
Prominent members of the Joint List have clearly said from the start that they’re NOT joining a government coalition. Here’a an interview with Ahmed Tibi, fourth on the list: http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.643895
@ Deir Yassin: If that’s true, I don’t blame them. Tibi noted that the lib Zio parties have taken the name Zionist Camp which pretty much precludes Palestinian support anyway. But again, I think in this case it is the Jewish parties which have been the first to write off the Palestinians, given their choice of name & other matters in which they’ve dissed them, rather than the other way around.
@ Richard,
You got it backwards – the Joint List maintains it’s traditional stand and will not join the government under any circumstance. Their party members said it enough times. The link below is one of the many examples for that (Tibi):
http://www.haaretz.co.il/news/elections/1.2570791
They will however join the center-left parties to block Netanyahu from becoming prime-minister.
@ yonathan: False, it is Herzog who said he would refuse to include them. Palestinians have spent decades being dissed by the Jewish majority. If Herzog and his buddies hadn’t wrapped themselves in the mantle of Jewish-Zionist supremacy, they could’ve created a governing majority with the third largest bloc in Knesset.
Of course both sides have problem with each other but the reason the Joint List is objecting to be part of the government is because they would be responsible for the occupation during their time in office (as Tibi said), and imagine being in government and war starts. It’s not as simplistic that you can say Herzog doesn’t want them. The parties forming the Joint List have traditionally refused to sit in government before elections – before Herzog.
That’s why they also refused to sign a deal with Meretz, they don’t want to empower the zionists, no matter their views and no matter that it might hurt them as well (by the way – reports say that Hadash was for that deal).
There’s a video by Habyit Hayehudi showing that Herzog said that he won’t rule out Ahmed Tibi in the most important committee in the Knesset:
http://youtu.be/n23iImrEXhE
I haven’t seen Herzog deny collaboration with the Joint List but, even if he did – both sided don’t want to play together.
Sure it is. Herzog has said it point-blank. I wrote about it here & noted Herzog himself saying the Palestinians would serve as a blocking party, presumably blocking the rightists from toppling him. This is the same tokenism with which Israeli Palestinians have always been treated.
This is simply not true. Jewish governing coalitions have excluded Israeli Palestinian parties. There is absolutely no truth to your claim.
What are you talking about? What deal? Meretz never asked them to sign a deal.
What are you talking about? What deal? Meretz never asked them to sign a deal.
This is the deal:
http://www.haaretz.co.il/news/elections/1.2582867
Jewish governing coalitions have excluded Israeli Palestinian parties. There is absolutely no truth to your claim.
Joint List leader, Ayman Odeh, talks about not sitting in the coalition (~5:30) – note also the polls that are presented to him which are pretty interesting.
https://www.facebook.com/dovhanin/posts/959414884092477
The palestinians parties haven’t recommended any candidate for prime-minister for a decade. There’s also this interview (scroll down to the 16th of February) with Ahmed Tibi.
https://www.facebook.com/Tibi.Fans
There are more with Haneen Zoabi as well.
There’s also a clip that a commentator named Ariel posted in the link to your post which says the same thing. Herzong’s statements didn’t rule out collaboration with the Joint List, whereas, recent events show that the Joint List as objected to deals with the Israeli left.
@ yonathan: As I’ve noted, a “deal” between Meretz & the Joint List regarding individual voters preferences and “surplus votes” is not the same type of deal we were referring to in the context of this thread, which dealt with deals involving forming ruling coalitions.
Again, whatever statements were made by the Palestinians noted that the Jewish parties, by their choice of name & their endorsement of wars against Palestinians & other issues, have rejected Palestinian interests. Nor have any Jewish parties ever invited a Palestinian party into a ruling coalition.
I insist you provide proof that Israeli Palestinian parties HAVE served in governing coalitions. If you can’t, then you’re a liar. Furthermore, show me any evidence that a Jewish party has ever publicly invited a Palestinian party to join a such a coalition.
Nonsense, Herzog has never said “I don’t rule out collaboration with the Joint List.” The most he has ever said on that score is that he hoped they would “block” the far right.
I’m giving you one shot to reply to this and only to offer evidence that I’ve specifically requested. If you reply and do not offer such evidence, you will make no further comments in this thread.
Stop making a fool of youself.
‘Meretz never asked them to sign a deal’ – http://www.haaretz.co.il/news/elections/.premium-1.2582478
It’s always great to read commentary from someone who doesn’t know the subject he’s writing about. Keep up the good work!
@ lol: In the context of this thread we were talking about coalition agreements and whether the Joint List would be included or not in such a “deal.” Then you introduced an entire different matter w/o making clear what you were talking about. That is, an agreement about election “preferences.” That is nowhere near what I was talking about & because you merely threw into the mix a statement about a “deal” and didn’t clarify what you were talking about I assumed it was a “deal” to unite Meretz with the Joint List.
Meretz is not a truly left Party. It refuses to acknowledge, except in token ways, the Palestinian minority (yes, there is one Israeli Palestinian who will enter Knesset via Meretz). It’s at best a liberal party. So it doesn’t surprise me a party that is truly on the left would not enter into agreements with Meretz since the latter largely disdains non-Jews.
I dunno Richard it looks like you are twisting his words: “Herzog said that he would form a coalition comprised of all the parties “from Lieberman to Meretz” and that he would try to secure “support from the outside” from the Arab parties as well”… This reads to me that since the arab parties do not intend to join the government that Herzog would try to get their support on issues that are important to them… I think if Herzog thought that the joint like would actually want to join the government he would invite them. I see this like the bloc quebecois they have never joined the government but they have supported bills that are important to them. I dont think this is racist i think its pragmatic on both parties. As for the arab list refusing to sign a deal with meretz this was confirmed in Haaretz the other day. http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.645931
@ ben: I am not interested in continuing this debate. You are done in this thread. Move on.
Unrelated– but ha ha ha that sociopathic head-chopping owl has only 4%. What a goofball.
let me predict the future: Likud gets 17-18 seats. Herzog is the next prime minister. The accident that happened to the jewish people- Bibi Netanyahu and his 20 years propaganda system, are gone for good. Obama leaves office with two finale: the defeat of the fiction named Isis with the combination of putting an American puppet governmant in Syria, and an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank by early 2017.
Surely the main reason why no Zionist party wants to invite the Joint List into a coalition is the fear that once they are in government those damnable Goys might just prove to be principled, reasonable, responsible and…. competent.
That would never do, not only because it would destroy decades of demonization, but also because it would highlight just how venal the current crop of “born-to-rule” politicians really are.
Best not to risk it…..
Kiss of death …
○ Peres endorses Herzog for prime minister
The more I read about these elections in Israel the more I am convinced that Israeli politics are totally broken. That country is totally unable to make peace with the Palestinians. Every one of these mainstream politicians support completely the mowing the grass policy towards Gaza and lack the ability to confront the West Bank settlers (since they basically support that enterprise in any case) so there is no way that they can make peace. We should face a basic fact of life — left and right wing Zionist are dedicated to expanding Israel into the West Bank. Peace is secondary to that goal.
[comment deleted: I choose not to continue this thread. You’re repeating yourself & that’s a comment rule violation & I have nothing further to say as well. As for moderation, I don’t moderate people without warning them. YOur comment was filtered because it contained 3 URL links & all comments with 3 or more links are automatically filtered.]
RE: “Israeli Elections 2015: Likud Losing, Labor Rallying”
MY COMMENT: I’m pulling for Benjamin Netanyahu to be reelected because when he addressed the U.S. Congress in 2011 he said he was willing to make “painful concessions” in order to achieve a peace agreement with the Palestinians. Certainly he would not have lied to the U.S. Congress. Not to the U.S. Congress! ! !
SEE: “Inside the talks’ failure: US officials open up”, By Nahum Barnea, YnetNews.com, May 2, 2014
In an exclusive interview, American officials directly connected to the talks reveal the real reason for the collapse of the negotiations.
ENTIRE ARTICLE – http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4515821,00.html
RE: But they outsmarted him, joined together as a single Joint List, and he may be stuck picking up the pieces of his own political career come election day. “I’m lovin’ it!” ~ R.S.
MY COMMENT: Only one thing beats those “Golden Arches”℠ and it’s “Mmm Mmm Good!”*
* VIDEO (1:01) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMJtLP8jMWQ