66 thoughts on “September Surprise: Israeli Attack on Iran? – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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  1. If this is true, this is sheer madness. Haven’t they learned from Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq? Sacrificing the lives of hundreds of thousands of civilians, Iranian and US servicemen, plunging the whole region into another prolonged war with years of insurgency, chaos, human suffering, destabilizing the region for years to come. For what?

  2. Once again we see the constant warmongering, peace-rejectionism from israeli regime, when till the world counter the biggest threat to world peace -israel?!

  3. Richard, you wrote: “If this is right, the timing of the attack couldn’t be more propitious for Israel”

    Surely you mean for Bibi and co. and not for Israel?

    I can’t see here anything propitious for Israel, only bad bad bad!! I’m sure you agree that Israel has nothing to gain from the possible attack on Iran.

    1. Of course, I’m with Dagan on this & agree it would be disastrous for Israel, but propitious for Bibi, at least in short term. I’m also grateful to know that you share my views that such an attack would be terrible for Israel. I only wish there were more of you in Israel.

  4. this is psychological warfare – Israel cannot fight Iran. The Empire is overstretched and will face hell if they intervene on Israel’s side.

      1. So it is a simulation game.
        Right now I’m in a MMO fantazy simulation game.
        Do you want to write an article about me being a warlock or a witch ?

        1. a simulation game.

          That’s an important element of planning any major military operation. The more derisive you are the more I know I’m hitting the target.

          Do you want to write an article about me

          I don’t think you’re worth writing a word about, let alone an article.

          1. I can’t say I’d call it an MMO or even War Games those would be a euphemism. I think the US, Israel, and our tag team brothers and sister in NATO are all having a “Big Ole’ D*** Measuring contest,” why not its like Cold war with more panache. Bring it on we say!

      2. lol. you know there are not so meny ongoing simulated war games this moment, do you? esspecialy not in tiny israel, expecialy not about iran.
        if it’s true your “source” is praticepeting in one, you just nerrowed the “suspect” list to about 10 people.

  5. Why Jeffrey Goldberg reminds me of Ali Khamenei
    July 4th, 2011 |

    Binyamin Netanyahu’s “faithful stenographer” Jeffrey Goldberg has a column in Bloomberg criticizing Israel’s former director of the Mossad, Meir Dagan. According to Goldberg, Dagan is a “bungling strategist” and will be partly to blame if Israel attacks Iran.

    This is because Dagan “undermined his country’s deterrent credibility” (and Goldberg’s) when he said attacking Iran was the “stupidest thing I have ever heard.”

    Remember that around this time last year Goldberg was writing a cover piece for the Atlantic’s September 2010 issue about the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran. As Justin Elliott of Salon’s War Room pointed out, Goldberg’s predicted war date of July 2011 is here and there’s still no war on Iran.


  6. FYI, This same story was posted on Sunday morning July 2, by Harper, a contributor, to the Sic Semper Tyrannis blog run by Col. Pat Lang, who is a very reliable retired US Intelligence officer, who ran the DIA’s HUMINT in the Middle East till he retired in the ‘late ’90s. Harper’s take on this material was almost word-for-word verbatim with what this blog is reporting: he seemed to have had the same source. Harper’s post was up when I first checked the blog at 6:30 AM and was gone by 7:45 AM. When I e-mailed Col. Lang, asking what happened, he replied that he took the post down because he thought it was “crap.” You can still find the post on Google’s cache:


    I don’t doubt that your source believes what he’s reporting but I thought I ought to add Col. Lang’s take.

  7. Could you please explain a bit more how an attack on Iran by Israel would help foil Palestinian statehood?

    1. I don’t think it would foil statehood forever, just through September and until the dust settled after the Israeli attack & its aftermath. But that could take months, if not a yr. if repercussions of the attack are severe enough.

  8. FROM JUSTIN ELLIOTT, 07/01/11:

    (excerpt)…Reached by phone at the Aspen Ideas Festival, Goldberg told me that he believes the article [by him in the The Atlantic last August] captured the “high level of anxiety” about Iran he encountered during a month reporting in Israel last summer…
    …Goldberg still believes that in certain circumstances the current Israeli government would attack Iran’s nuclear sites. “Meir Dagan is doing what he’s doing now because he’s scared of an Israeli attack,” he said. “If you don’t think Bibi Netanyahu is crazy enough to launch an attack on Iran, you don’t understand this prime minister.”

    SOURCE – http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/07/01/jeffrey_goldberg_israel_iran/index.html

  9. The chances of an Israeli attack on Iran by the opening of the UN General Assembly Meeting on Sep. 13th 2011 is less than 5%. The blog author is fear mongering to attract eyeballs.

        1. If you think Adam Neira has common sense you haven’t been paying any attention to his ramblings here. Nor to the fact that he would like us to believe he has a direct conduit to both the Lord & Moshiach. He won’t say whether he’s a messianic Chabadnik or messianic Jew (or both).

          1. There are investment sites that confirm my estimate about the chances of an attack. See Intrade. I am not a member of Chabad. I have contacts in many groups. It’s very hard to categorise me or put me in a neat pigeonhole. .

            What does Richard Silverstein think about Maimonides Twelfth Article of Faith ?

          2. There are investment sites that confirm my estimate about the chances of an attack. See Intrade.

            You’re basing the likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iran on the odds posted at a betting site? Are you for real?

            I am not a member of Chabad.

            You have a blog whose title includes the Chabad term “moshiach” & you’re not Chabad? Either you’re lying or you’re a fake ripping off Chabad’s precepts.

          3. Richard,

            Do not pay any heed to this Adam Neira character – he also spams the Zero Hedge blog whenever an Israel related post shows up. Adam – you are a complete waste of matter.

          4. @Richard

            He won’t say whether he’s a messianic Chabadnik or messianic Jew (or both).

            The Messianic Chabadniks don’t believe in Yeshu, or whatever name these Messianic Jews (who are Christians masquerading as Jews) give Jesus.

            How do Messianic Chabadniks differ from regular Chabadniks? They’re just an Orthodox branch of Judaism, unless i’m mistaken?

          5. Messianic Chabadniks like “Rabbi” Dov Wolpe believe the most recently deceased Rebbe is the Moshiach. The mainstream Chabadniks believe in the Moshiach, but don’t necessarily see the Rebbe as the Moshiach. One is militant about it, the other less so.

          6. All Chabadniks are messianic in that they firmly believe, as all orthodox Jews do, that the Messiah may come at any moment (or as they say “mamash now”)

            Since the last Rebbe passed away about 20 years ago Chabad split into two rival factions, one of whom believe that the late Rebbe is not really dead but is in fact the Messiah and will return…

            Sound familiar to some Christians or Shi’ite Muslims? Yes we Jews suffer from these dreamers too!

          7. @shmuel

            All Chabadniks are messianic in that they firmly believe, as all orthodox Jews do, that the Messiah may come at any moment (or as they say “mamash now”)

            isn’t that traditional Jewish belief anyway?

            Since the last Rebbe passed away about 20 years ago Chabad split into two rival factions, one of whom believe that the late Rebbe is not really dead but is in fact the Messiah and will return…

            Sound familiar to some Christians or Shi’ite Muslims? Yes we Jews suffer from these dreamers too!

            So they believe that Rabbi is still alive and will descend. In other words, they only differ with other Jews over the identity of the Messiah.

            I dunno about the dreaming part, Sunni mainstream Islam believes in the Messiah too, but beleive it is Isa ibn Maryam, but not as God as Christians believe, and i’m not sure if the Shia mahdi is a forerunner to the Messiah, as they too do believe like Sunni Islam that the Messiah will descend eventually.

            But anyway, the purpose of my question was to see who the Messianic Chabadniks differ from Messianic Jews, who are in reality Christians.

            It’s only the Christians who give divinity to the Messiah, for a minute there, it sounded like Richard was saying the Chabadnik Messianics were too, which would mean they were giving divinity to a man, in this their Rabbi. But they are not.

            I misunderstood that. Thanks for the clarification.

          8. The fact that the Messianic Chabadniks claim the Rebbe never died is a form of deification which is probably why Richard compared them to Christians. They even say after the Rebbe’s name “Shlita” an epithet used for living scholars rather than the usual “zatsal” (may the rightious be of blessed memory) reserved for the dead.

      1. Richard. I appreciate your views. I also pray there will be no attack. Personally, I do not believe there will be one for the repercussions would be simply too great. No one seems to mention the China equation. I read some time ago China has quietly notified the USA of that nations commitment to provide defensive weapons as well as high tech anti ship missiles which could cause a few problems for the US/Israel navy not to mention the Iranian threat to close the Straights of Humuz tanker route. Iran is an important energy provider for Iran as well as India and Pakistan. An attack on Iran would be incredibly irresponsible.

  10. I have to echo the people against the attack; Israel will suffer grave consequences if this air raid/possible commando action is pulled off. They will have to get used to having captured IDF soldiers mailed home in pieces, hijackings, rocket attacks from within Israel, or something worse. The status quo is always on eggshells, why make it worse?

  11. Richard,

    I find this article highly interesting also in regard to the surprising German tank sale to Saudi Arabia.

    Under the convential Israeli logic, Israel would oppose the sale of 200 state of the art main battle tanks to Saudi Arabia to maintain it’s QME as high as possible, but now there is not even a hint of criticism from Israel.

    But if the tank sale is part of a deal of Saudi consent to an Israeli attack on Iran, the tank deal and Israels behaviour to it would make perfectly sense to me.

    What do you think?

    1. I think you need some more facts.
      For example: The Sauds spend last year 42B$ on their army. That is ranked 8th in the world. It is also more than 11% of their GDP which is the highest rate in the world.
      Israel has no say as to how the Sauds spend their people money (nor does the Arabian people), easy come easy go.

        1. Tell it to Marcel not me, he went off topic on the Sauds.
          You prejudice has gone too far for too long.

  12. israel will do what is in its nature, namely mischief and creating trouble in the area with its cohorts from abroad of the same league.
    the zionist jews should take stock of the water level in lake qinnaret daily, it will dry as predicted by the prophet mohammed pbuh1435 years ago after which there will be no state of israel and payback time will commence to its citizens for the war and human rights crimes they inflicted on the muslims and christians of the area and general crimes against humanity on the planet!

    1. Abubqar
      Do you have a source for this prophesy of Muhammed? I’d like to compare it with Christian and Jewish apocolypses all of which claim great victories against the infidels and wonderful things for the believers.

      Maybe we could even discover whose god is great?

      Or as the Monty Python team put it: “My god’s bigger than your god”

    2. @ Ya abubaqar
      How come my Hasbara detector tells me you’re neither a Muslim nor an Arab ?
      Maybe because ‘Lake qinnaret’ is not our way of calling it. And Kinneret is with a ‘K’ I think, just as Abu Bakri. It makes a huge difference in Arabic, in Hebrew I don’t know ….

      1. @ Abubaqr,

        Your statements are a lie. You don’t appear to know anything about Islam.

        You sound like Walid Shoebat, a Christian, who pretends to be an exmuslim and get’s paid for his dog and pony shores.

  13. War with Iran would be suicide for Israel and the US. Iran should not be underestimated.A war between Israel and Iran would go down like this. Israel would attack Iran’s nuclear centers successfully but they would face reprisals. Iran,Syria,Hamas,and Hezbollah would fire missiles at Israel. Israel’s David Sting,and Iron Dome systems would be overwhelmed. the Israeli air force would have to retreat from the north and go south because Hezbollah has M-600 missiles,Syria,Iran would fire a multitude of missiles at Israel. Israel would then plan a ground invasion of Gaza and southern Lebanon. Israel at this time will do a bombing devastating blitz of Gaza,Syria,and Lebanon. Syria is getting anti ship[ missiles from Russia which with no doubt be sent to Hezbollah. So Hezbollah would sink at least one Israeli ship like last time. The air war over Lebanon will be very different. with upwards of 40,000 Katyusha rockets stockpiled, Hezbollah still retains the terror option. If Hezbollah’s plentiful M600s were fired in high-volume volleys, the Arrow system could be overwhelmed. If the IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps] launched Iranian high-value Shahab-3Bs and variants timed with Hezbollah’s M600s, the Islamic republic could deal telling blows to strategic targets…. Hezbollah is said to be flush with the Russian-made SA-7 “Grail”, the SA-14 “Gremlin” and the SA-18 “Grouse.”
    These shoulder-fired SAMs are a point defense for covering mobile missile launchers like the M600 when exposed during the firing and retirement cycle. Also in the bargain came the SA-8 “Gecko”, a mobile launcher with a range of about 16 kilometers and a height of 12,000 meters. Mix these new capabilities with Syria’s new radar system supplied by Tehran… For Israel, the cost of setting back Iran’s nuclear program a few years before dealing decisively with Hezbollah and Syria is now at an all-time high
    If Israel goes to invade southern Lebanon they will fall into a trap. The Lebanese military made it clear if Israel invades Lebanon they will join Hezbollah to defend their national sovereignty.

    Iranian special forces and Iraqi Shiite militias will start cutting the long US supply line alone Route Tampa from Kuwait City. Then the Shiites on southern Iraq will start a campaign on attacking the reaming 50,000 US troops. Iranian irregulars would cross the border to give support and man power for the Shiite militia. Shiites in the Iraqi army and police will defect to the side of the militias and start killing US troops. The troops will be able to hold their own but we would be forced to retreat from Iraq. The reason because at this time the Iraqi govt would collapse and all gains that was made from the surge will be un done for good. We could possibly see at least 100-180 US troops being killed when the Shiites cut the supply line temporarily(because our air support will stop the blockage) and start conducting guerrilla attacks on them. On Afghanistan we could see Iran reluctantly giving the Taliban SAMs. That would make the war effort harder to win.

    ran has formidable asymmetrical retaliatory capabilities. For example, all of these are vulnerable to Iranian sabotage or hundreds of Iranian missiles on the eastern side of the Gulf: from the narrow Straits of Hormuz, which still handles 25 percent of the world’s oil traffic; to Bahrain, the U.S. Fifth Fleet’s headquarters where the population is two-thirds Shiite and the royal family is Sunni; to Dubai, where about 400,000 Iranians live, including many who are “sleeper agents” or favorable to Tehran; to Qatar, now the world’s richest country with per-capita income at $78,000, which supplies the United States with the world’s longest runway and sub-headquarters for CENTCOM, and whose LNG facilities are within short missile range of Iran’s coastal batteries; to Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura, the world’s largest oil terminal, and Abqaiq, nerve center of Saudi’s eastern oil field.
    So an attack against Iran would be disastrous in multiple levels.Any one with a modicum knowledge in economics and military strategy anf tactics know this would be a disaster and blow up Israel and our face literally.

    Good article Richard this more insightful then debkfile.

  14. “Believe me, someone like Meir Dagan, a man famous for his silences and hatred of public attention and media interviews, does not open his mouth unless it is important. Very important. For this reason alone, I’d say that such an attack is not only possible, but likely.”

    I thought the same thing – this guy was head of the Mossad, he knows when to keep his trap shut, and when to open it. Unless it’s a very devious ploy to bluff Iran, but that seems unlikely, nor would there be much point – it won’t stop them doing what they are currently doing, ie building their nuclear capacity to the level they admit and are theoretically entitled to.
    Also one has the sense that if anyone was the man to lead Israel to Armageddon, and/or over the edge of the Abyss, Bibi is the one to do it, and the situation is looking more and more like one in which he would make his play. But the consequences could be really bad for Israel, let alone the rest of the region and world. Even if Israel avoided catastrophic damage in the short term, by no means certain, the region would be substantially irradiated effectively permanently, which Israel could not avoid impact from (without a lot of DU or worse the attack could not really do much damage), and the incentive for revenge attacks would be vastly increased. Plus the political and economic fallout generally, and great loss of life – a crazy move for no real gain – the regime will collapse/change sooner or later anyway, they always do, and this one is looking shakier every passing year. Those guys (Bibi/Barak at al) should really think twice, then twice again, about starting something that could finish them and Israel as a going concern, going for broke is not a historically successful strategy, on average, if at all. It usually ends in disaster, the real world being trickier and more unpredictable than even the best laid plans foresee – and Osirak was a cake walk compared to this, for any that think it’s a model to follow. Just wait it out, be rational, and try to build a country enough Jews will actually want to live in, instead of a besieged military base slowly becoming a nutter colony as the sensible ones leave and the extremists multiply.

  15. Oh and Obama should consider, does he want to be the guy who let the disaster that even GW baulked at come to pass?

  16. These predictions happen at least twice a year since Bush’s ‘Axis of Evil’ SOTU speech in 2002. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, just that Israel knows fully well the consequences of such a move and Iran has had 9 years to prepare for it. I seriously doubt they have wasted that period of grace. But what if Israel attacked by proxy? Meaning Iraq? If it was ostensibly Iraq to attack Iran (as has happened before), retaliation on Israel would be a questionable option. One way or another Iran will be brought to heel but how? WWIII? I hope not.

  17. Hi Richard,

    Interesting post. I’ve been following the situation pretty closely since about 2005 and have been hearing reports and speculation that Israel would attack Iran before Bush was out of office, and was floored when they didn’t. Since the passing of 2010 and the current political landscaping that has occured, I had come to the conclusion that though they (Israel) might still want to, they just couldn’t possibly do it now….that is, until I read this post. If you and your source are legitimate, then possibly the threat still exist, and perhaps more so now than ever before?

    Two questions for you, first, is there any new information you might have since you posted on the 5th? And second, all other speculation aside, what do you personally believe will happen? War likely?

  18. Why would US agree on this? currently they are selling weapons to all neighbors of Iran by having our Nuclear topic at top, showing Iran as a threat to all the countries in the middle east.

  19. Personally I do not believe there will be an invasion of Iran for the simple reason that the price would be too high. China would be forced to act by providing the necessary defensive weapons. Even a so called surgical attack would create serious problems for, not only the US/Israel but the already shaky world economy. Well armed Iran is no comparison to the poorly armed Iraqis, Lebanese, Syrians and Afghanis.

  20. Very interesting topic which is being discussed on several websites. Mark Anderson’s explanation of how things will unfold is very informative. Only one thing he seems to have left unsaid is the possibility of Israel using the nuclear option if their backs are finally and totally against the wall.

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