Maariv’s Ben Caspit is not someone I ever quote. In fact, normally if Caspit says something, I believe the opposite. That goes back to the nasty smears he levelled against Shammai Leibowitz when he was a human rights fellow of the New Israel Fund and studying law at Georgetown. Caspit orchestrated a whispering campaign with the connivance of anonymous Israeli intelligence sources to cause Shammai to lose a State Department job teaching diplomats being posted to Israel about Israeli society.
But today, Caspit is on to something I’ve already reported here. He’s noticed Bibi’s smear campaign against Meir Dagan and juxtaposed it with Bibi’s fulsome praise for the former spymaster on his retirement a mere matter of months ago. When was Bibi lying and when was he telling the truth, Caspit asks? And if Dagan has lost his mind as Bibi or his acolytes have anonymously complained to various news sources, then why did Bibi employ him throughout his tenure as PM as Mossad chief. Did Bibi just discover Dagan’s mental defects now that the latter has challenged his judgment regarding Iran?
Another important point Caspit raises is the legitimacy of Dagan’s criticism. Being a right-wing partisan, Caspit finds himself believing that no intelligence operative has a right to air any policy matters publicly. But even he concedes that this may the exception, the event that happens “once in a generation” that forces you to break all the normal rules. This may be the one time when the public has a right to know because we’re speaking of the fate of this public should there be a war. Thus Dagan may see himself as carrying out a “fateful historic mission on behalf of the nation.” In fact, the former Mossad boss sees the prospect of war with Iran as an existential threat to Israel. Which is infinitely ironic considering that Bibi is the one who inveighs against the “existential threat” posed by Iran.
And the words Dagan uses to describe Bibi’s war plans are so strong they can’t be printed in Caspit’s newspaper. That’s how powerful his views are.
Like Oren, Caspit describes a foursome including Dagan, Ashkenazi, Diskin and Amos Yadlin (Oren didn’t mention Yadlin specifically, but did mention IDF commander Gadi Eisenkrot as in this camp as well) all opposed to war with Iran. They are opposed by Bibi and Barak. This is a battle of epic proportions. A battle which will seal the fate of individual Israelis and Iranians and the political fate of all those engaged in it. That’s why the stakes are so high.
As the Maariv journalist tells it, the anti-war camp is especially alarmed by Barak. They view Bibi is weak and light-weight, a virtual rubber stamp for Barak.
The Maariv reporter has clearly read Amir Oren’s Haaretz column, in which the latter imagines a commission of inquiry to examine the errors of the fictional 2011 Israeli attack on Iran. Caspit too imagines a similar inquiry except in this one Ehud Barak is the judge and not the accused. Barak demands of Dagan: “why didn’t you do something while you had the power? If you disagreed so strongly why didn’t you try to stop it?” This, Caspit imagines, is the scenario Dagan is trying to avert with his vocal opposition to Netanyahu Iran policy.
Thanks to Ira Glunts for alerting me to this story. The title is also partly derived from a phrase of Ira’s. He’s written his own (different) take on it at Mondoweiss.
It appears that the Dagan-ites are worried that Israel might attack Iran, rally worried. It is not a moral thing. Israeli governments and militaries have no morality at all. It is a practical worry. And N’yahu et al. are ticked off because like all politicians they enjoy using their power and do not like opposition. (And are not worried about the practicalities.)
Is it all drama for the international audience? What for? Maybe to get the USA to attack Iran. Could happen, too, because the USA is (also) run by macho mad-men and imperialists who need not balance their checkbooks.
It is very unlikely that Iran would be taken by surprise.
There’s an element of theatre about some of the Iranian regime’s nuclear programme which suggests to me that they already have an effective deterrent:
The uranium enrichment programme is very big and shiny, but they’ve had a heavy water reactor for decades that could have got them a bomb by a simpler and cheaper route. If the simpler and cheaper route exists, it will be the one actually taken.
China has apparently sold Iran a significant tonnage of VX precursor, too. Although a nuclear bomb scores higher with politicians than VX, Israel’s military and intelligence chiefs should know better and they won’t want to take chances, as they might be dealing with hundreds of VX-carrying projectiles as opposed to a much smaller number of nuclear ones, which Israel’s defences might even manage to intercept.
But quite apart from the risk of retaliation, if Iran already has any sort of WMD, what is the point of going to war, ostensibly to prevent them acquiring WMD?
There is probably no element of conspiracy in Chinese firms selling VX precursor to Iran: Chinese chemical firms will cheerfully sell anything to anyone and the Communist government isn’t inclined to peer over their shoulders. As long as the export reveals nothing critical about China’s own defences, it isn’t a concern.
But, realistically, Iran’s industrial base may be less sophisticated than Israel’s, but it’s a lot bigger and even in conventional war, their ability to sustain the production of munitions for a long time would give any general pause for thought. They are also very largely self-sufficient in raw materials to feed that industrial base, which definitely is not true of Israel.
Modern politicians, though, in any Western country, just ain’t given to pausing for thought, and in this case they may lack even the basic comprehension of the economic and industrial mechanisms they need to be thinking about.
And it’s not always “all about oil”. There’s an awful lot of other good things beneath the soil of Iran, some of which may prove to be far more important as the 21st century develops and the 22nd comes into sight.
Yeah, they’ve got a deterrent. They could take out Dimona, no bombs needed, and they don’t need the extra fuel to carry it there.
there is a factual mistake in the article
Caspit wrote “the judge not the minister” and not as writen in this text. meaning Aharon barak will be the judge not Ehud barak
Thanks for the correction.
The Israel-Iran imbroglio has been on a slow burn lately. Incidents like this fan the flames. The P5+1 Meeting in Istanbul was positive as was the NK visit to Tehran by certain representatives last month, However like two neighbours with a history of distrust as soon as it looks like some genuine friendly relations will break out both parties slink back to their corners and eye each other off with mutual enmity. The circuit breaker is for a high level trust building meeting between the Israelis and Iranians with others present to take place ASAP. An independent, divinely mandated counsellor and his team are required. How much is this solution worth to Middle East and World Peace ? Say 20 Trillion dollars over the next 38 years. How much would it cost to bring the A Team to Jerusalem ?
Rather than wikipedia, one should read Tom Segev’s account of the Liberty “incident” in his magisterial book “1967.” In it he explains why the attack took place, and not American Jews’, but Lyndon Johnson’s, cover-up of it.
It has been a lousy day, reading about the slaughter of Syrians by their own government, the slaughter of Palestinians in the Golan Heights, the slaughter of Libyans by NATO forces, etc., etc., etc.
for some reason my reply above was misplaced (see time) and should have been a reply to Yorem’s comment above.
A more recent version of the attack on, and cover-up of the U.S.S. Liberty:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20132.htm
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