Bill Schneider announced on CNN last night that John Kerry had no significant “bounce” from the Democratic Convention (Poll: No Bounce for Kerry). He added that it was the smallest bounce in recorded polling history since the 1972 McGovern Convention. That made it sure sound ominous for Kerry’s election prospects…until you realize that 2004 is not 1972. Now, 5% or less of the electorate is truly undecided and Bush’s support is basically unwavering (as is his own). Because there were fewer undecided voters from whom he could pick up support and Bush’s support is rock solid, there wasn’t much bounce he could’ve gained even had he announced the advent of world peace.
I’m sure the bozos at FoxNews are barking with delight over the polling news. But I remind them that a Democratic Convention with no bounce means only one thing for the Republicans and their upcoming Convention: no bounce as well. I suggest that they tone down the barking lest they build unrealistic expectation for substantial Republican bounce at their Convention.