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Sarajevo haggadah

Antaea Darom

Israeli women's art

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Torah as music

Ben Heine

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ceramic bowl

Mohammad Said Kalash, "Offering Reconciliation" exhibit (photo: Ilan Amihai)

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Punch and Judy/Pinchas and Jamila

Avi Katz

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David Grossman

Ben Heine

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Eldrige Street shul

Lower East Side

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Dove

Ben Heine

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Two birds

Hoda Jamal

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Israeli and Palestinian boys

from documentary, Promises

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Cat in the Hat

Yiddish version

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Daylight through the Wall

Banksy: graffiti art on Separation Wall

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Maurice Sendak's Brundibar set

New Victory Theater (photo: Nan Melville/NYT)

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Daniel Barenboim, West-Eastern Divan Orchestra

Palestinian-Israeli musical ensemble (photo: Kerstin Joensson/AP)

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Great Day on Eldrige Street

N.Y.'s klezmer greats celebrate shul rededication (photo: Leo Sorel)

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Joint Appeal for Peace

(Avi Katz)

Joint Appeal for Peace

Ketubah, Ancona, Italy (1772)

(Jewish Theological Seminary library)

Ancona ketubah

Posts Tagged ‘likud’

In the Israeli Elections It’s…Livni (or is it Netanyahu)?

Tuesday, February 10th, 2009

With 98% of the vote counted it appears that the exit polls were accurate for a change and Kadima gained 28 votes, Likud 27, Yisrael Beitenu 15, Labor 13, Meretz 3 and Hadash 4. There is big news here. Up to a few days ago, a Haaretz poll predicted virtually the opposite result between Likud and Kadima. It appears Livini has pulled a few irons out of the fire and Bibi did his usual campaign fizzle as Assaf Oron predicted. Proto-fascist Avigdor Lieberman is the big news of this election as he absorbed almost all the votes that deserted Likud and doubled his previous number of mandates.

Shmuel Rosner noted that every Israeli election seems to provide a flavor of the month party whose “new message” turns it into the “new, new thing.” Voters flock to it and give it 10 to 15 mandates (Shinui, Pensioners Party, etc.). Before the ink is dry on the invitations to the Knesset opening, the party sells out whatever single issue it was formed to promote. By the next election, it has receded into the woodwork. Lieberman’s single issue this election was the loyalty oath for Israeli Arabs.

The difference between Yisrael Beitenu and those other parties is that Lieberman is the strong man of this party with a well-rounded rightist ideological message, and the others actually focussed more on an idea than a personality. Parties based on strong personalities (Sharon, Ben Gurion, etc.) tend to do better and last longer in Israel. So it is possible that Lieberman and his party will play a kingmaker role not just in this Knesset but future ones as well.

The big news on the left is that Meretz has imploded as almost anyone who followed their deterioration could have predicted. It waffled on the Gaza war and lost over half its mandates as a result. Even a prominent endorsement by Haaretz publisher Amos Schocken couldn’t revive it from the dead. Hadash, the former Communist party, was a winner and its steadfastness in opposing the Gaza war was rewarded by voters looking for a truly progressive (as opposed to waffling) party.

Labor is another loser which has progressively receded with each recent election. It’s 13 votes will not guarantee Barak a major portfolio even if he chooses to join a Likud-led coalition along with Lieberman.

The coalition math looks bleak for Livni. The only way she can form one is if she gains the support of Shas. Which is ironic considering that Shas was precisely the stumbling block in her forming the previous government and the reason she chose to go to the polls rather than accept their deal.

The only good result here is that whoever forms a government will have an exceedingly weak coalition. If Netanyahu leads the goverment he is hostage to the far right and Lieberman. If Livni forms a government she is hostage to Shas (if she can even gain their support in the first place). It is another recipe for political stasis, a status Israel can ill afford.

The result doesn’t bode well for Barack Obama’s peace efforts. Netanyahu has absolutely no interests in any serious negotiations with the Palestinians and will stall like hell if the U.S. attempts to pressure him. Livni might want to play ball with Washington but even if she tries, Shas will severely constrain her.

Of course, there are all sorts of bizarre possibilities: Likud could join with Kadima and even Labor in a national unity government which would politically look like a cross between a camel and an elephant and function just as smoothly. At least this might exclude Lieberman from a governing coalition.

Hoenlein: Everything We Know About Israel We Owe to Dore Gold

Saturday, December 13th, 2008

One of the consistent themes of this blog is the very narrow slice of political discourse and information that the American Jewish leadership relies on in formulating its positions regarding the Israeli-Arab conflict.  Many prominent analysts have noted that discourse is far more freewheeling in Israel than here; and that you can virtually be strung up as an anti-Semite for saying things heard and read almost daily in many of Israel’s major newspapers.

The deafening silence of the Conference of Presidents regarding the Hebron settler riots, which I noted in a post last week, provides an instructive example of this principle in operation.  Marc Perelman wrote this week about the fact that the Conference’s Daily Alert, a compendium of news sources about the conflict, maintained full silence about the incident all of last week.  Turns out, this was no accident because the Alert is prepared for the Conference by none other than Dore Gold’s Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs:

The contents of the Daily Alert are put together by…Dore Gold, a former foreign policy adviser to Likud leaders Ariel Sharon and Benjamin Netanyahu, who is running for prime minister in the February 10 elections. Left-leaning groups have for years complained that the digest consists mostly of right-leaning articles or opinion pieces, reflecting the conference’s political leanings.

Gold, who was appointed by Netanyahu as Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations in 1997 and attended a meeting in July between the Likud leader and Barack Obama in Israel, told the Forward that he did not have any formal tie to the Netanyahu campaign. “If I am called in for a meeting I will go but I am not on staff and I’m not paid,” he said on the phone from Jerusalem, adding that his center hosted meetings for political leaders from all stripes. “Obviously everybody comes from somewhere but I am first and foremost a scholar.”

Anyone who has read anything written by Dore Gold knows that he is first and foremost a partisan ideologue. He’s a scholar in the same sense that Daniel Pipes is a scholar, which is not at all.

Here’s Gold’s hollow explanation for omission of Hebron from the Alert:

….Gold…stressed that the Daily Alert was meant to cover issues pertaining to the relationship between Israel and the world and avoid Israeli domestic issues. “We don’t want to get drawn into Israeli internal disputes and the Hebron incidents were very controversial here,” he said.

[Actually,]…Daily Alert articles do…sometimes touch upon internal Israeli topics and often feature stories about Palestinian violence against Israelis. On December 5, two days after the Hebron incidents, the Daily Alert included a small news item from Ynet…about an Israeli woman and her two-month-old daughter being lightly injured by rock-throwing Palestinians near the West Bank town of Nablus…

Gold admitted that given the international repercussions of the Hebron incidents, “in hindsight, we probably should have included a factual story about it.”

The Conference is a consortium of the major national Jewish organizations (though it does not include a number of significant left-leaning ones) and as such, claims it has no particular ideological perspective.  As Gold is one of Bibi Netanyahu’s most senior political operatives and Bibi is in the thick of a political campaign, all this raises the question of the propriety of a major, supposedly non-partisan American Jewish group, receiving news briefings every day from Dore Gold.

What does the Conference think Gold’s going to give its members?  An unbiased political helping of Israeli political news?  If that were the case, the Alert would’ve at least made mention of Hebron.  The fact that it didn’t until after the Forward and Jerusalem Post articles both slammed its omission speaks volumes. The Conference, like Aipac, is the heartland of Likudist thinking in the American Jewish community.

I can understand why dovish groups like Peace Now and the Reform movement continue to be involved with both groups. But doesn’t there come a time when the affiliation becomes so noxious that drastic measures are required to either reform the beast from within or withdraw from it and start something new that is more democratic, more representative, while at the same time including an umbrella of mainstream Jewish groups.

Doug Bloomfield also wrote much earlier about this general problem of the Daily Alert’s omission of information that goes against the grain of a rightist Israeli nationalist political perspective. He quotes a telling comment by Ori Nir:

“American Jews simply don’t know about [the growing problem of Jewish terrorism]; they don’t read about it in their Jewish media, not in the Daily Alert…and they don’t hear about it from the leading Jewish organizations,” said Ori Nir, spokesman for Americans for Peace Now.

Netanyahu: Will Carry Out Peace Process…On a Stretcher

Thursday, December 11th, 2008

Despite the latest favorable polls, Bibi has a few problems.  First, rebellious Likudniks conspired to place transferist Moshe Feiglin 20th on the party list along with allies who placed even higher.  The unfortunate thing for Netanyahu is that it shows the party for what it really is: a far-right, rejectionist nationalist party with no interest in either peace or resolution of the Israeli-Arab conflict.  Second, Bibi has no peace plan or policy to speak of other than some lame verbiage about advancing Palestinian economic interests–as if this would somehow be a satisfactory substitute for real Israeli-Palestinian peace.  The Likud leader has a pipe dream that a well-fed Palestinian will somehow forget that he has rights which are being denied him.

That’s why Bibi was forced to resort to a meeting with all 27 EU ministers to assure them, much as Kurt Waldheim and Jorg Haider attempted to reassure their fellow European states when they won elections, that neither he nor his party were out and out right-wing racist lunatics.  You say I exaggerate?  Perhaps.  But by how much?

Netanyahu was the guest speaker at a lunch hosted by the European Union…He used the occasion to try to quell concerns fueled by the outcome, which delivered significant advances for a wing of Likud seeking to halt peace talks, ban minority Arab citizens of Israel from the parliament, encourage non-Jews to leave the country and pull Israel out of the United Nations.

Following the primary results, outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of the rival Kadima Party warned that a victory for a Likud slate peppered with die-hard opponents of concessions to the Palestinians could plunge Israel into international isolation.

All this reminds me of the old story about Norman Thomas, perennial Socialist Party candidate for president who first devised many of the programs FDR incorporated into his New Deal.  When asked why he wasn’t pleased with the fact that FDR had carried out much of his political program, Thomas replied: “Carried it out?  On a stretcher.”  If elected, that’s pretty much what Bibi will do to the peace process.  He’ll claim there is one.  He’ll create some Potemkin Village-like semblance of one.  There may be meetings (or may not be).  But there isn’t a hope in hell of any real progress if he’s elected.  The real approach will be a massive military presence and the threat of retaliation for every Palestinian act of belligerency.  Not to mention an almost certain Israeli military strike against Iran and the end of the Syria-Israel negotiation track.

And don’t be fooled by Netanyahu’s promises that Moshe Feiglin and his allies will “disappear” politically.  That will not appreciably alter the Party’s ideology.  It will only change it from a complexion of jet black to grey in terms of its political agenda.  Even without the extreme rightists, Netanyahu is capable of implementing a right-wing anti-peace agenda.  Progressives like me far prefer Bibi to be yoked to Feiglin like a donkey to the plough.  But even if he is not, that will not change the fact that Bibi is still a donkey.

But Netanyahu does have one large advantage over Kadima and its hapless leader, Tzipi Livni.  Bibi knows who he is.  The electorate knows who he is and what he stands for.  If they vote him in they know what they’re getting.  Not so with Kadima.  What does it represent?  What will it do in office?  I’m not even sure Livni knows, let alone those she wants to vote for her.

That may be why the latest poll shows Likud opening a substantial lead over Kadima.  While I find Livni far preferable to Netanyahu, she has none of the gravitas (in Israeli terms) or charisma of a Sharon.  She is a candidate in search of a message.  Unless she defines herself (and her opponent as the far rightist he is), she will lose.  May she prove me wrong.

Bibi’s Barack Rip-Off

Friday, November 14th, 2008
Bibi's Barack ripoff

Bibi Barack ripoff

Barack Obama established that he has political coattails that helped Democrats get elected to Congress this year.  But do his coattails extend as far as Israel?  And will they help a right-wing Israeli nationalist war horse get elected?  That’s what Bibi Netanyahu’s banking on.

Change We Can…Rip Off

The N.Y. Times brings word of one of the great digital rip-offs of recent political history.  If you visit Bibi’s website you’ll find his web designer has almost entirely ripped off Barack Obama’s website down to color scheme, text placement, and even slogans.

Everyone loves a winner, but this is ridiculous.  Bibi and Barack share absolutely nothing in common.  Of all the Israeli candidates for prime minister in the upcoming election, Bibi is the one Obama has to want least to succeed.  Bibi is the old war horse.  Barack is the new, new thing.  Bibi is the Ashkenazi grandee.  Barack is half-breed rabble rouser.

You’ve gotta hand it to Bibi.  He has no new ideas either political or digital, so he steals from his betters.  He has no creativity.  That’s why the most right-wing of Israel’s candidates can claim with a straight face that he too is the candidate of change.

He imports his website and themes from abroad and attempts to graft them onto an Israeli political reality.  But just like in the natural landscape Bibi is the invasive species and not the native plant.  He wants bragging rights assuming the Israeli voter will be jazzed that he’s modeling his campaign after a trendy young U.S. politician.  Somehow this will find resonance for the Israeli voter.  Notice that Bibi’s site has Twitter when there are only a few thousand in the entire country who use it.  And given what we know about Twitter users here, how many Israeli Twitter users are going to be Bibi fans?

At this rate, he might as well steal Obama’s entire campaign lock, stock and barrel.  He could put on blackface, start working out, lose a few pounds, claim he’s a half-Mizrahi, and call for negotiations with Hamas.  Now that WOULD be a change.  And the voters would be so shocked they’d vote for him in droves.

Until then, Bibi habibi, get real.  No Israeli will believe that this leopard could change its spots.  He’s the same old wine in old bottles.  Nothing’s changed.  The same failed policies you saw when he was last prime minister are what Israelis will get if they give him another chance.

Bibi website features Obama prominently.  How do you spell s-h-a-m-e-l-e-s-s?

Bibi website features Obama prominently. How do you spell shameless? B-I-B-I

You’ve got to credit Bibi’s scumbag advisors with trying to make lemonade out of the lemon of a candidate that they have.  This gives the word chutzpah new dimensions.  Please remove any food or drink from your mouth as you may accidentally spew as you read this:

…Dore Gold…a close Netanyahu adviser, said the Likud leader liked and respected Mr. Obama, so it was not strange that he had taken a page from the president-elect. Mr. Gold said the two meetings they had held so far, in Washington in 2007 and in Jerusalem last summer, had gone well.

“I was at both meetings, and it was clear that the two leaders established a very good chemistry very quickly,” he said. “We are convinced that the Obama administration will be open to hearing new ideas from Israel on how to make progress in the region.”

Mr. Netanyahu is positioning himself as the candidate of new ideas both for Israel itself and for peace with the Palestinians.

Just what are those bold, innovative ideas for peace with the Palestinians?

The ideas revolve around economic opportunities, aides say, cutting red tape to improve the Palestinian economy; building peace from the ground up, not the top down…

The aides are convinced that negotiations with Palestinian leaders will lead nowhere and the best steps Israel can take, as it waits for Palestinian attitudes to change, involve building the Palestinian economy.

What a cruel hoax this man is playing.  The Palestinians will never be fooled by this narischkeit.  I hope Israeli voters aren’t either.

J Street Condemns Silence of Israel Lobby in Face of Peace Prospects

Tuesday, June 24th, 2008


J Street’s first major New York Times ad tweaks the Israel lobby for turning its back on promising new Israeli peace initiatives with its Arab neighbors:

When Israel Goes to War Supporters Rally…

When Israel Negotiates Why the Deafening Silence?

A new ceasefire has been brokered between Israel and Hamas. Israel and Syria are quietly resuming diplomatic contacts…And Israeli and Palestinian leaders are negotiating to establish two states living side by side…

If Israel had gone to war this week established pro-Israel organizations would have rallied to its side. There would have been ads, press releases, fundraising appeals and political speeches.

When Ariel Sharon planned the Gaza withdrawal, the Conference of Presidents actually opposed him until he put on a full court press and converted the group to at least tepidly supporting what was, after all, official Israeli government policy.  The Israel lobby was also tepid in its support for the Annapolis peace conference.  The same thing is happening now during what is arguably a more important period offering prospects for peace.

Why are AIPAC, the ADL, the AJC and President’s Conference AWOL when the prospect of peace looms?  Because they’re opposed to any Israeli compromises for peace.  And at the risk of repeating the obvious, they’re essentially Likudniks in their political orientation whether they admit it or not.  Rather than compromise or negotiation, they’d prefer that the IDF invade Gaza to quell Hamas.  Rather than negotiate with Lebanon or Syria, they’d rather that Israel would sit tight and wait till the Arabs sued for peace on Israel’s terms.  Of course all of this is a delusion since this will never happen.  Israel doesn’t have the luxury of waiting and time is not on its side.  But don’t tell the Israel lobby that since their stock in trade involves promoting the notion of Israel triumphant, victorious and supreme.

If you have not already done so, I urge you to sign the ad, contribute and do what you can to support J Street.  If the Israel lobby doesn’t speak for you–and their silence in the face of peace opportunities speaks volumes–then allow J Street to speak for you.  It is that still, small voice our High Holiday liturgy speaks of–a voice of reason and conscience.

Yaalon II: Lebanon Strategy Based on ‘False Feeling Military Means Alone Could Dismantle Hezbollah’

Friday, September 15th, 2006

This is the second blog installment profiling Moshe Yaalon’s interview in Haaretz that was published in full yesterday. The first installment was Yaalon: ‘Going to War Was Scandalous’. The interview is doubly interesting because it represents his political “coming out.” It is the equivalent (well not precisely equivalent, but similar) of Bill Clinton’s A Town Called Hope at the 1992 Democratic convention in that he used it to introduce himself to the American electorate for the first time.

For this reason and for the actual substance of the article, it is an extremely interesting gauge of the views and mindset of an up and coming political leader (if he does indeed enter politics, which almost everyone expects him to do).

It is also interesting that he chose the liberal Haaretz as his mouthpiece rather than the more conservative Maariv or Yediot. It would be as if John McCain chose the NY Times when he first decided to run for political office. I think he’s making the case among Israeli intellectuals and political liberals for an alternative view of the war and the leaders responsible for it. And perhaps he’s trying to inoculate himself from the charge, should he join the Likud as many expect, that he is the typical nationalist extremist thriving in that party. If that is his strategy, I’m not sure it will work as Likud seems irremediable rejectionist and extremist to the core. Unless he toes the line, I don’t see how he will be comfortable there.

Before we read Yaalon’s views, I want to add another caveat that I neglected to mention yesterday. Much of the criticism about IDF preparedness for the war can legitimately be laid at Yaalon’s doorstep, so in effect the interview is an attempt to defend his reputation as chief of staff. Naturally, should he enter politics this (his military position) will be his currency. Should his reputation be sullied by a state investigation it would devalue him as a political leader. Therefore this defense.

But let’s get to the meat of the interview. In this passage, he sets out a contrarian (to Olmert and Halutz at least) view of the importance of Syrian negotiations:

Did you favor negotiations with Syria?

“Yes. In the summer of 2003 I suggested to prime minister Sharon that he accede to the requests of Bashar Assad and enter into negotiations with him. I thought that the very existence of negotiations with Syria on the future of the Golan Heights would crack the northern alignment of Iran-Syria-Hezbollah and perhaps also cause its dismantlement. Sharon rejected my suggestion outright. He preferred the disengagement.”

Would you be ready to cede the Golan Heights in return for peace with Syria?

“I never sanctified any piece of ground. If a territorial concession will bring about true peace and full recognition of Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, I am not against that. However, even if we did not reach a land-for-peace agreement, the very fact of the renewal of the dialogue channel with Syria would have distanced it from Iran and would have weakened the northern alignment, which I defined as a strategic threat.”

Here Yaalon returns to a more traditional and constrained conception of Israeli military power which makes it all the more striking in light of recent grandiose projections of such power in Lebanon:

“You have to understand that the use of military force is a last resort. You don’t use it offhandedly. And in order to use military force a legitimate strategic context is required. There was no such context regarding Hezbollah. However, beyond all that, it was clear to me that Hezbollah is a rooted phenomenon and will not be eradicated by military action. It was also clear to me that there is no unequivocal military solution against the rocket deployment. I therefore encouraged political activity, which in the end would lead to the disarming of Hezbollah as a result of an internal Lebanese process, and concurrently I drew up a military plan intended to address a scenario of a Hezbollah offensive that would oblige us to deal with the organization militarily.”

When you compare Yaalon’s original plan for action in Lebanon to what actually happened under Halutz’s direction, you can’t help regretting his forced removal as chief of staff (though the reason he was forced to resign, his rejection of the Gaza withdrawal, was more than justified):

What were the plan’s basic assumptions?

“That the IDF must act in a way that would set in motion a political process that would lead to the disarming of Hezbollah, the removal of the Iranians from Lebanon and perhaps also the imposition of sanctions on Syria and Iran. In a scenario of the abduction of soldiers, exactly as occurred on July 12, the IDF was supposed to respond with an aerial attack and the mobilization of reserve divisions, which would act as a threat to the Syrians and to Hezbollah and would encourage Lebanon and the international community to take action to achieve the desired goal. If the threat itself did not achieve the goal, a ground move would have begun within a few days aimed primarily at seizing dominant terrain as far as the Litani River and the Nabatiya plateau.

“The ground entry was supposed to be carried out speedily, for an allotted time, without the use of tanks and without entering houses or built-up areas. Because of our awareness of the anti-tank missile problem and our awareness of the bunkers and of the fact that the routes are mined, the intention was to activate the IDF in guerrilla modalities. That was the operational idea, that was the plan and that is how the forces were trained.”

Had this been Israel’s strategy, it might or might not have worked. But it would not have drawn Israel into the maelstrom it found when it adopted Halutz’s ‘scorched earth’ strategy in Lebanon.

In the following passage, Yaalon critiques the Olmert-Halutz mindset that maintained that military power alone could exterminate Hezbollah. If it is sincere on his part, it is a very wise formulation:

When did you understand that there had been a failure, that something had gone wrong?

“At the end of the first week. Until then things were conducted reasonably well. I was critical of the fact that the reserves were not mobilized, but I understood more or less what the goal was. But then, instead of plucking the political fruits of the aerial offensive, they continued to use force. They over-used force. And instead of coordinating with the Americans for them to stop us when the operation was at its height, and setting in motion a political process to disarm Hezbollah, we asked the Americans for more time. We let the Americans think that we have some sort of gimmick that will vanquish Hezbollah militarily. I knew there was no such gimmick. I knew the whole logic of the operation was that it be limited in time and not be extended.

“And then I lost all logical connection with the events. I understood that there was a deviation from the plan that was based on some sort of false feeling that there is a military means to pulverize Hezbollah and bring about its dismantlement and disappearance. Because the goals of the war were not defined and because no one clarified what the army is capable of doing and what it cannot do, the pursuit began of an impossible achievement. Instead of sticking to the IDF’s operative plan, they started to improvise. They improvised, improvised and then improvised again. Instead of grabbing political achievements at the right moment, they went on with the use of force. The excessive use of force in a situation like this is ruinous. It becomes a two-edged sword. When you turn a screw and reach a certain point you have to stop. If you keep going you end up pulling it out: you open instead of closing. That is what happened here.”

The following is a savage critique of the entire Israeli strategy of facing down Hezbollah in its populated strongholds:

So you believe the Bint Jbail move was also mistaken?

“Bint Jbail was imposed by the chief of staff. There was no orderly plan here. There was no dialogue between the General Staff and Northern Command and the field levels. The idea to capture Bint Jbail was born out of the desperate attempt to create a picture of victory, because Bint Jbail is a symbol. Because that’s where Nasrallah made his ‘spider webs’ speech. But it was clear that this was folly. Why are you even messing with a built-up area? Seize the dominating terrain. Use infantry according to the original plan. Don’t enter killing areas in which Hezbollah is waiting for you. Listen to the command levels that are telling you that this is a mistake.”

Here, Yaalon enters the delicate territory of what you say to the young Israelis who followed orders and were sent into a Hezbollah death trap basically for naught:

Your wife’s nephew was seriously wounded in the land skirmishes in the village of Debel.

“The question that arises from Moran [his wife's nephew] and from his buddies is a simple one: Why? I am familiar with the loss of friends in war. And with bereaved families, and with serious wounds. But if it is clear why and for what, it’s easier. And here the young soldiers were sent to execute a mission whose logic and purpose were not clear to them. Nor did they understand why they found themselves in a house when it was clear to them that it wasn’t smart to enter houses. When Moran was drafted I told his father one thing: no tanks and no houses – I was that aware of the antitank threat. And when he shouted there, ‘Don’t send us into houses,’ nobody listened. Two antitank missiles entered the house, leaving nine killed and 32 wounded.

“So he and his buddies are asking why. Why the mistake in the tactical execution. And why the entering and leaving villages. And I, with them, also ask why. Yes, in war people are killed, wounded. But that is why the political echelon and the military echelon have to make their decisions in the most judicious and precise way. Not to get carried away. Not to act emotionally. Not to kick a wall with a bare foot. Because when you kick a wall with a bare foot the satisfaction of the kick lasts exactly as long as it takes for the foot to make contact with the wall. After that the foot is broken, while the wall continues to stand. And what happens in the meantime is not only that soldiers are killed. What happens is that the most basic element that leadership needs is eroded: trust. And that is what happened here. The trust of the soldiers and the commanders in the political echelon and in the senior command was eroded.”

In Israeli society, the IDF maintains a delicate balance with politics. It is ostensibly insulated from politics by civilian management. In truth, the boundary between military and politics is quite ambiguous. Many Israelis believe that the IDF essentially runs the nation’s security policy with a virtual carte blanche.

Certainly, the IDF senior echelon plays an over-sized role in political life after retirement from the army filling the ranks of prime minister and defense minister to an inordinate degree. The U.S. thankfully does not have such a tradition. Besides it’s a lot more lucrative for U.S. ex-generals to go to work for the defense industry than to go into politics.

In this passage, Yaalon decries the politicization of the military echelon, including the system of promotions, observed under Sharon’s reign:

“I see a war of cultures here. In recent years the public sector in Israel has undergone a process of corruption. It began in politics but, regrettably, also penetrated the army. A cycle of discussion has been created here in which the core is not the essence but marketing. In the war we paid a price for that. We paid a price for disengaging from the truth. We paid a price for the loss of integrity and the moral fog. We paid a price for accepting a process in which officers are promoted because they have political connections.”

Allow me to translate. You are saying, in effect, that Ariel Sharon’s ‘Ranch Forum’ corrupted the top level of the IDF.

“I have no doubt of that.”

You are arguing that the chief of staff and his deputy were appointed to their positions because they are close to the Ranch Forum.

“That is what the papers said.”

And this corruption, which has its origins in the Ranch Forum, caused many of the ills that were exposed in the war?

“The present chief of staff is a very talented person. He was an excellent commander of the air force. But there is a moral debate here. He carries with him a problematic message. The connection of officers to politics is undesirable. It is a corrupt connection. There is a problem today in the IDF of very senior officers who are too close to political elements.”

Yaalon also detects a ‘culture of complacency’ in the IDF which allowed it to become diverted from where its attention should have been focused:

The senior command distanced itself from details, and when the senior command does that it creates laxness. You get slackness. The muscle tone changes. At the same time, the processes of deep thought were severed. A clear message was conveyed that everyone has to toe the line. That decisions are made before the discussion and not in its course. Too much value was attributed to charisma, to the speed with which decisions are made. Anyone who held a different view was distanced or silenced. An unhealthy spirit emerged of not being meticulous and of not making an effort. Of uniformity of opinion and of complacency. And worst of all: a feeling was created that anyone who preserved rectitude and integrity was liable not to be promoted. A feeling was created that anyone seeking promotion has to cross the lines and join the spinfest and learn how to serve the politicians. That is why the chief of staff cannot now put the IDF through a rehabilitation of values. Because he reflects saliently the flawed culture of values from which release is needed, which has to be cleansed.”

This is a man who certainly wants to be the next defense minister if not prime minister. Let us hope that if that happens the sentiments expressed here will not fly out the window. Any Israeli politician who carries into his policy deliberations the caution expressed here will be an exceedingly wise leader.

But unfortunately, history is littered with the bodies of generals and politicians who once spoke wise thoughts only later to perform foul deeds. I certainly hope that Yaalon is not one of them because Israel desperately needs the insights laid out in this interview.

Israel Preparing for Lebanon Ground War?

Thursday, July 20th, 2006

There are so many things wrong with Israel’s current policy toward Lebanon and Hezbollah. It’s about as bad as it gets in terms of the miscalculation and foolhardy assumptions. But it can get worse and it just might if some Israeli ex-generals and the Likud hardline opposition have their way. Those generals fought and lost the last Lebanon war started by Ariel Sharon in 1982. In 2000, Ehud Barak unilaterally withdrew the IDF from southern Lebanon after the country’s misadventure there ended in abject failure. Now, they want to do it again. As Robert Rosenberg writes:

There is talk — but still only talk — of Israel launching a massive ground operation into Lebanon, to once and for all, as the proponents say, to clear south Lebanon of Hizbollah militiamen and their rockets. Those in favor of such an operation tend to be ex-infantry and armored corps generals from the days of the original Lebanon war, wanting to refight that lost war, or Rightist politicians like Likud MK Yisrael Katz, whose rise in Likud politics began when he served as an aide to then-defense minister Ariel Sharon.

On Army Radio today, Katz eerily echoed Menachem Begin, and apparently unwittingly so, when he said that Israel has to get over the ‘Lebanon trauma … and go into Lebanon in full force to get the job done.’ Begin, in his day, proudly explained that Operation Peace for Galilee, more popularly known as the Lebanon War, would ‘once and for all erase the trauma of the Yom Kippur war.’

Katz, now in the opposition and far from the reigns of power, tried to sweeten his vision of a corps of Israeli soldiers riding tanks and APCs into the quagmire of Lebanon, by saying, ‘they won’t be going into to stay there, just to do the job and get out.’ Shades of Begin and Sharon’s promise of an incursion that would only go as far as 40 kilometers, the range of the Katyushas that were in the hands of the PLO at the time.

Cabinet secretary Yisrael Maimon, pressed by Israel Radio’s Ayala Hason did admit today that there are plans for a massive incursion into Lebanon, but those plans are ‘not on the agenda.’ Instead, the current ground operations, he said, would suffice. Those operations are by elite commando units, target spotting for the aircraft overhead or ambushing Hizbollah cells still operating in south Lebanon — or much further north.

The NY Times today notes that Israel has greatly increased its ground operations in southern Lebanon over the past day or so. Two IDF soldiers were killed in a ground engagement yesterday and another two were killed today. These were the first ground force deaths since the war began:

Israeli officials suggested that Israeli ground troops may take a more active role in combating the Hezbollah militia and more strong condemnations were heard of Israel’s massive use of force in Lebanon.

So why would Israel fall into a trap it has already snared itself in to its great cost? First, you must understand the paucity of strategic vision that Olmert and Peretz possess. While I’m no military strategist, even I understand that when you use force you must have clear and limited objectives. You must have benchmarks to tell you when you’ve achieved them. And once you do you must stop and turn to political negotiation to achieve the remainder of your goals. What Israel has done both in its Gaza and Lebanon invasions is to weigh down the operations with many overlapping and sometimes conflicting objectives. Free the prisoners. Destroy Hamas and Hezbollah. Force the “moderate forces” in Lebanon and Palestine to “take control” of the situation. Strike blows against so-called proxies like Iran and Syria. With so many objectives you practically guarantee you will realize none.

There is also an improvised, catch as catch can element to both operations as if the commanders are making it up on the fly. If Hezbollah does one thing, we respond with another. If we see an opportunity to engage Hezbollah ground forces we take it even though a ground engagement may not be part of our operational mission.

Second, Olmert fronting a relatively weak government coalition is always looking over his shoulder at his political right (his original home). And Netanyahu and the other rabble-rousing extremists smell blood in the water and are in a feeding frenzy for the head of Nasrallah. As Robert said above, they and the former generals are itching to refight the last war they lost. Since the nation mistakenly perceives itself “winning” the Lebanon war the siren call of “finishing them off” beckons ever so seductively. And the best way to do this supposedly would be through a ground assault.

The concept of a ground assault is a fatal vision for Israel. It would be oh so easy to get sucked into a protracted ground war and ongoing occupation of southern Lebanon. Israel is not like Hezbollah or Hamas. It does not have endless stocks of recruits to expend in the process of pursuing its military objectives. A guerrilla insurgency is the worst type of war for Israel to fight as we are seeing ourselves in Iraq because it slowly bleeds your side dry with each new death or wounded victim.

Aron Trauring believes Israel will invade with ground troops. I doubted him. But now I’m not so sure. One thing we both agree on is that such an operation would only compound the blunder of Israel’s initial strategy of invading Lebanon and turning much of it to cinders. I pray that there are enough cooler heads in the IDF officer corps and military intelligence to persuade Halutz, Peretz and Olmert that this is not in Israel’s best interest. But somehow I doubt there are.

Kadima Wins, Not With a Bang But a Whimper

Wednesday, March 29th, 2006

The Israeli election results are pouring in. Haaretz reports that Kadima won 28 seats, Labor 20, Shas 13, Yisrael Beitenu 12 and Likud 11. Voter turnout was just over 63%, the lowest in Israeli history and ‘worsting’ the 68% previous record for the previous election. What does it all mean?

Ehud olmert and shimon peres celebrate election victoryPeres and Olmert celebrate Kadima’s victory: the Has-Been and the Might-Be (photo: AP)

First, the losers: Ehud Olmert has put on a disappointing show as Kadima’s party leader and prime minister designate. It may be reasonable to assume that the 5% decline in turnout consisted of Kadima voters who voted with their feet and took Election Day as a vacation day. As recently as a week ago, polls predicted 42 seats for Kadima. So 28 seats is a shocking fall off. He ran a lackluster campaign and aside from kidnapping Palestinian terrorists from Palestinian jails and a dubious plan to set Israel’s permanent borders unilaterally, he gave his supporters precious little over which to enthuse. While Olmert still gains the right to create a governing coalition, his hand will be weaker than it would have been had he won the 36 seats projected in polls as recently as three or four days ago.

Bibi Netanyahu also loses dramatically, seeing Likud decline from 38 seats in the current Knesset to 11 in the coming one. Such a grievous outcome couldn’t have happened to someone more deserving of it. After picking the pockets and the meat off the bones of the poor and elderly as Sharon’s finance minister, Netanyahu had nothing to offer the Israeli electorate. Likud was stripped of its main campaign talking points. Settlements had become a non-issue because Sharon ensured that Israelis no longer found them terribly relevant in their domestic politics. The typical Likud red-baiting and Arab-baiting didn’t work either, perhaps because Olmert and Kadima were draped in Sharon’s bullet-proof security mantle.

Amir Peretz speaking after electionAmir Peretz, one of the ‘winners’ in yesterday’s election (photo: AP)

And the winners: Amir Peretz definitely comes out smelling like a rose. In winning 20 votes (as opposed to 19 in the last Knesset), he took a moribund party which Shimon Peres had essentially run into the ground via his accomodationist politics and breathed new life into it. He gave the party a new relevance in direct response to Netanyahu’s draconian politics of fiscal austerity. And Peretz has done something equally important in putting a Mizrahi face on Labor. Never before has a major party put forward a Mizrahi for prime minister. But make no mistake, as Menachem Klein said tonight in analyzing electoral results, a good number of veteran Labor voters abandoned the party in a a racist gesture of anti-solidarity. But perhaps an equal number of Sepharidm abandoned their traditional Likud base to return to the Labor party for whom their parents perhaps had one time voted. Those eastern Jews who fled Labor and flocked to Likud during the days of Menachem Begin never returned to the “home” in Labor. And now, some of them have. And this could break an ethnic logjam in Israeli politics and allow Labor to break out of the elderly Ashkenazi ghetto to which Shimon Peres had consigned the party.

Avigdor Lieberman certainly wins taking a party that didn’t even exist during the last election and bringing it into the new Knesset with 12 seats. According to Klein, Lieberman too breaks an ethnic logjam of sorts. Previously, he and Natan Sharansky were the political representatives of Russian Israelis. Their appeal never really transcended that community. But with Yisrael Beitenu, Lieberman has drawn to his side the Israeli’s Israeli he needs to broaden his appeal within the Israeli electorate. Among his list, are former Labor intelligence officials, academics, etc. He himself has said that he plans to use this victory as his stepping stone to the prime ministership in the next election. Heaven forfend! But he is a force to be reckoned with.

Shas, with 13 seats also is a force to be reckoned with. It increased its representation from 11 in the last Knesset. But their position possibly doesn’t change much because they were a key element of Sharon’s ruling coalition in the last Knesset. And they may play such a role in the new coalition should they choose to do so. Of course, with its shrill, shallow and corrupt ethnic politics, it will do Olmert no favors by joining him. But almost every Israeli government includes a religious party as some form of insurance or balance to more secular political elements and the next coalition will prove no exception. The only question is whether the religious partner will be Shas or one of the other parties.

Finally, and perhaps the most shocking development is that Jonathan Pollard’s old “handler,” and the Mossad operative who single-handedly brought Israeli-U.S. relations to its knees for a time, Rafi Eitan, has led the Pensioners’ (Gil in Hebrew) Party to seven seats in the new Knesset. This may be the only blog in the world where you’ll learn this relevant background information about Eitan:

The 80-year-old Eitan fought in the Palmach pre-state army, where he won the nickname “Stinker” after falling into a pit of sewage while on a mission.

This is another party that didn’t exist before this campaign. Like Peretz, this party’s platform responds to the threat Netanyahu posed to Israeli citizens, like pensioners, who live on fixed incomes. If you add its seven votes to Labor’s 20, you find that parties running on a progressive economic platform polled as many votes as Kadima, which seemed to run away from social equity and the economy as political issues. This posed another one of Olmert’s tone-deaf weaknesses in this campaign.

How does this affect Israel’s relations with the Palestinians? Alas and alack, it probably doesn’t affect it at all in the sense that Olmert will likely continue his same tone-deaf unilateralist policies (it didn’t work for Bush regarding Iraq, so why does he think he’ll have any success at it?) toward the Palestinians. I do note one possibly slightly hopeful sign is that both Mahmoud Abbas and Olmert have called for face to face meetings to get negotiations under way. Until tonight, Olmert had told the electorate he had no interest in meeting with Abbas. However, there is little reason to be excited about this development until we know how serious Olmert is and how substantive he wishes that conversation to be. If I were a betting man, I couldn’t lose betting against Olmert. But he could fool me and I’d be delighted if he did.

In his talk tonight with Joel Migdal, Menachem Klein rejected Olmert’s unilateral approach as serious or viable. He asserted that only face to face negotiations with the Palestinians and Israeli willingness to return to ’67 borders (with adjustments to allow annexation of Maaleh Adumim and Ariel) would bring a true peace settlement. When I asked him how he expects that any Israeli political party to move the current consensus anywhere close to his parameters, Klein replied that no progressive party like Labor was likely to create such consensus. Laughingly he deprecated himself: “I’m under no delusions that I and my leftist colleagues in the Geneva Initiative are going to take over the Israeli government and singlehandedly bring peace. We shouldn’t be fools enough to believe that Yossi Beilin will ever be prime minister. No, a centrist party is the only one which can bring such change. And I don’t care who brings peace. Let it be Ehud Olmert or Avigdor Lieberman for that matter. I’d be delighted. The most I ever expect to be is a mosquito flitting a few good ideas into the ears of Israeli politicians.