US and Iran Exclude Israel from Lebanon Track

The gradual dissolution of the relationship between the Trump administration and Israel proceeds apace. A recent sign of trouble was the president’s decision to exclude Israel from peace talks which led to an agreement ending the Iran war.  Then, Trump and vice-president Vance launched harsh, unprecedented attacks on Bibi Netanyahu, who vehemently disagreed with a plan he viewed as selling out Israel’s interests.

The Israeli leader has gone farther in directly sabotaging US-Iran efforts to establish a Lebanon ceasefire.  The IDF has repeatedly and incessantly bombed southern Lebanon, killing 4,000 people and eradicating virtually all the villages there.

In response, the US and Iran have established a “deconfliction mechanism” designed to enforce it. They explicitly excluded Israel, which both parties view as the transgressor, through its defiance of terms of the MOU.  The attacks on Lebanon especially angered Iran, and brought it to the brink of abandoning the talks.

Unlike with past US presidents, Trump has decided that securing the deal to end the war–and abandoning Israel if needed to achieve this–is critical to saving his presidency.  This is a hill he appears ready to die on.

Trump and Vance, who’d already left Israel high and dry in signing the MOU with Iran, wanted to reinforce Israel’s diminishing leverage.  So during the bilateral talks in Switzerland, the vice-president agreed to the joint monitoring of the Lebanese ceasefire.  This enhanced program to enforce it, was yet another blow to Israel’s freedom of maneuver in Lebanon.  Not only would it presumably be subject to restraints imposed by the US, but the latter had brought its mortal enemy, Iran, into the room. It became a crucial partner in the monitoring process. It would irk Netanyahu no end. He was out in the cold.  In particular, it was a slap in the face to a former best buddy.

All this was nothing new. The just-published blockbuster, Regime Change (buy book), offers more astonishing revelations recounting the breakdown of the relationship. After Israel launched a brazen assassination attempt on Hamas’ senior leadership in Qatar, where they gathered to negotiate a Gaza ceasefire, the Gulf mediators announced they were abandoning their efforts.  Trump was furious.  He gave Netanyahu a tongue-lashing described in the book:

Trump blew up at Netanyahu in a phone call with the Israeli premier and Jewish top US aides Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, telling him:

“Everybody’s sick of you, Bibi. All the Jews are sick of you. Even the two Jews on this call are sick of you,” Mr Trump reportedly told him, an apparent reference to Mr Kushner and Mr Witkoff, who are both Jewish and were also on the call.

“You can’t back out of this. I’m the best friend Israel ever had. Everybody hates you, and I’ve stood by you,

A further hardening of the relationship occurred in Trump’s decision to join Israel in going to war against Iran.  Netanyahu pulled out all the stops in a Situation Room dog-and-pony show.  He regaled Trump with visions of battlefield glory: a toppled Iranian regime, an end to its “meddling” in regional politics, the end of its nuclear program. The president basking in the adulation of the world after his military success. Despite almost universal opposition from his aides, including the secretary of state and vice-president, Trump made the fateful decision to join in the attack.

The result was devastating: none of the pre-war objectives were realized. $100-billion in operational costs went down the drain. US military facilities throughout the Gulf struck and seriously damaged. The world economy in shambles, especially in the US–endangering Republican prospects in the midterm election.  This was likely the point when Trump decided he’d had enough.  That transformed Netanyahu into persona non grata in the Trump White House.

While Trump has been angered at the Israeli leader in the past and made up with him, this feels different. This is a sharp, potentially permanent break. Until now, Israel has had free reign to pursue its interests in the region: assassinating scientists, a president, a supreme commander, and Hezbollah leaders; committing genocide; invading countries at will and occupying their sovereign territory.  It committed these crimes with growing savagery and in defiance of international law.  The world became disgusted. In the US, a presidential candidate lost an election, in large part because of her refusal to denounce the genocide. Hundreds of millions in pro-Israel campaign cash has had limited success in defeating Congressional candidates critical of Israel.  Polls are increasingly bleak.  They indicate a cratering of support for Israel.

Trump, who normally ignores how his policies are perceived by the electorate, has drawn a line in the sand.  Netanyahu has gotten under his skin.  There is a personal grudge against him.  It’s one thing to be a Pres. Obama, who has nothing to fear from such obsessive hatred.  But to be a vassal state dependent on Trump’s good will, exposes Israel’s vulnerability.  Should he decide to do so, the weapons spigot could be shut off. Israel would be on its own, constrained by the limits of its own capabilities, with no US safety net.  It could be a grave threat to Israel’s national security.  This is a perilous situation Israel hasn’t faced since the 1956 Suez War.  It’s reminiscent of the ironic title of Huxley’s Brave New World.  In this case, bravery will not help Israel.  Instead, it is a frightening new world.