Trump Must Cut Off Military Aid to Israel

The US and Israel are at loggerheads over the Memorandum of Understanding which ended hostilities with Iran.  The document explicitly directed that Israeli attacks on Lebanon must end as well, and its forces must withdraw from sovereign Lebanese territory.  This has raised a furor among Israelis, who see the Lebanon adventure as a critical operation on behalf of Israel’s national security.

Israel currently has between 50-75,000 troops occupying 20% of the country.  This is a larger swath of territory than Israel has occupied in several previous wars/invasions. It has killed 4,000 Lebanese and entirely destroyed many of the villages in southern Lebanon, which is a largely Shia region and center of Hezbollah resistance.

Israel has an ass-backward view of its Lebanon invasion.  It is not defending itself. Not protecting the north.  It is the party which invaded Lebanon. It is the party that assassinated Hezbollah’s leaders and Iranian commanders.  It has conducted such assassinations there as far back as 1975.  It was an accessory to the Sabra and Shatilla massacre perpetrated by its Phalangist ally in 1983. Its crimes there have never stopped.  It is the aggressor, the invader–not Hezbollah.

Even its initial rocket attacks against northern Israel were instigated by Israel’s assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei. When your ally is attacked you respond by mounting an attack against the attacker.  This is how both World Wars commenced and spread.  It is how the US entered both WWI and WWII. Israel was either naive or clueless if it didn’t think Hezbollah would enter the fray.

There’s another way to think of this. If we go back to 10/7, then-defense minister Yoav Gallant advocated not invading Gaza and attacking Hamas, but invading Lebanon and attacking Hezbollah. He believed that the latter was a far more dangerous foe than Hamas.  Also, it was allied with Israel’s number one enemy, Iran.  First Hezbollah, then Hamas–could have been his motto.  Rememeber as well, that Israel began its ill-fated 1982 invasion of Lebanon after its London ambassador was gravely wounded in an assassination attempt by a dissident Palestinian faction.  The shooting was all the excuse then-defense minister Ariel Sharon needed to commence the invasion.

Though the IDF often makes massive blunders in its strategic considerations, it certainly anticipated that when it launched its June joint US attack on Iran, that Hezbollah would join the battle.  I strongly suspect this not only was an outcome it anticipated, but welcomed.  Like Gallant’s proposed 10/7 attack; like the Argov assassination attempt, the June assault was a provocation that would permit Israel to invade Lebanon and conduct the equivalent of Sherman’s March to the Sea–a massive campaign to destroy Hezbollah and every shred of support it enjoyed in the south and Beirut.  It was planned as a scorched earth campaign of elimination and extermination.  Eradicating all the villages and inhabitants in the south (1.2-million have become refugees in their own land). Creating a sterile zone–what Israel euphemistically calls a “buffer zone.”

Netanyahu has vowed defiance over the MOU. He claims he will not honor it, will not stop the fighting, will not withdraw troops.  He will, in short, pursue his own interest with utmost disregard for US interests.  As I’ve reported here, both Vice-President Vance and Pres. Trump have told the Israeli leader in no uncertain terms that they expect him to adhere to terms of the agreement. Though it does not specify a timetable for compliance.

Based on Israel’s past history, no one should expect it to bow to anyone else’s considerations. It goes its own path and dares anyone to stop it.  Will Trump stop it?  Will he impose upon Netanyahu to stop, if the latter refuses?  How much is he willing to do?  How far is he willing to go?  So far, his rhetoric has been unprecentedly candid. Unlike past presidents, he has made crystal clear what he expects.

When Bibi defies Trump what will happen?  I know what should happen.  Many Democrats have begun a campaign to cut off military aid to Israel.  I wrote yesterday about the critical role US missiles, war planes and bunker buster bombs play in the IDF weapons inventory. In fact, Israel could not long supply its troops with such arms in a prolonged conflict, in the face of a US embargo.  This is what is necessary.  This is the decisive approach, the only one Israel will understand.

Cutting off the weapons supply will be like depriving the lungs of oxygen.  Its armed forces cannot long survive on the battlefield without us.  Trump must be prepared to impose the heaviest sanction for Israeli defiance. Its the only language it understands.  Bargaining, as Obama attempted during the JCPOA negotiation, doesn’t work. Pressure, lobbying, diplomacy–none of these work.  As I wrote yesteday, Israel lives by the gun.  Its language is force.  Just as it imposes its will on its enemies and rivals through military aggression, so must anyone seeking to rein Israel in, be willing to apply the same type of response when it balks.

Should Trump be willing to take this approach–which would be a radical break with past US policy–the MOU will survive. Should he fold in the face of Bibi’s defiance, the MOU would almost certainly be doomed.