As Assad Falls, Israel Invades Syria

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With the fall of Syria’s Bashar al Assad, Israel has achieved a long-cherished strategic victory. It has vanquished, at least temporarily, Hamas and Hezbollah; seriously weakened Iran’s ability to project influence in the region; and rid itself of Assad, one of Iran’s top regional allies.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist militia which, with other Syria opposition forces, toppled him are members of the majority Sunni population. Assad, on the other hand, was part of the Alawite elite, a minority representing 10% of the population.  It had benefited enormously under 50 years of patronage by the Assad family.

HTS began as Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate. Its leader, Abu Mohhamad al Jolani, was born to Syrian expatriates in Saudi Arabia.  Like Yasser Arafat, whose father was an oil engineer in Kuwait, al-Jolani’s was an oil engineer in the Saudi kingdom. The family left for Saudi Arabia sometime after his grandfather’s family was expelled from the Syria Golan Heights in 1967.  This trauma left an indelible mark on his development as a jihadi, along with the Second Intifada:

Ahmed al-Sharaa [al Jolani]…has said his parents were forcibly displaced from their home in the Golan Heights in 1967. The nom-de-guerre he would later take, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, is a reference to the region. “We are from a family originally from the now-occupied Golan Heights. My grandfather, my father’s father, was displaced from the Golan in 1967, after the Israeli Zionist army entered the area,” Jolani said in a 2021 interview on PBS. He also said the second Palestinian intifada in the early 2000s was a pivotal event that shaped his politics. “I was 17 or 18 years old at the time and I started thinking about how to fulfill my duties defending a people who are oppressed by occupiers and invaders,” he said.

Later, his group broke away from al Qaeda and became al Nusra.  In that iteration, it became an proxy of Israel in the Syria Golan. The latter supplied the Islamists with weapons and other supplies.  It also provided medical care inside Israel for its wounded fighters. It played a major role in the group’s battlefield successes.

In an attempt to mainstream his movement and soften his reputation, al-Jolani transformed al Nusra into HTS.  As he did so, he moderated the movement’s religious extremism.  In this new form, he recently did a CNN interview, which highlighted his transformation into a credible future leader.  Now, he is the kingpin who played an instrumental role in the final victory of the “revolution” begun in 2011.

Israeli intelligence celebrates

Israeli intelligence officials in Mossad’s Glilot Junction headquarters and the IDF Kirya are no doubt celebrating.  They have achieved a goal of decades, eliminating three different enemies all at once. Israeli military reporter, Ron Ben Yishai reports that US-Israeli Kurdish allies have sealed off the eastern border with Iraq, ending Iranian access to the country and its missile shipments to Hezbollah.  Syrian relations with Hezbollah will also end, since the Lebanese militia and Iran were allies of the hated Assad regime. Russia’s influence will also wane for the same reason. Ben Yishai also says that Israel, undoubtedly referring to the Mossad or AMAN (Israeli military intelligence), have established contact with their old allies.

Israel has announced its forces have invaded Syria. It is the first Israeli ground assault of the country since 1973.  An event which would have shocked a few years ago, is buried under the avalanche of other reporting about Assad’s fall. The IDF has presented its violation of Syrian sovereignty as sanctioned by the UN: “the Israeli military carried out the deployment to the buffer zone in coordination with the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force.”  Whatever coordination there may,–or may not–have been does not legitimize Israeli occupation of the country’s territory. This operation mirrors its recent, and continuing, invasion of southern Lebanon–part of its offensive against Hezbollah.

UPDATE: Netanyahu has heralded Israeli conquest of Syrian territory and the new Pax Israeliana in the Middle East. In the process he has torn Syria asunder and left it defenseless:

Netanyahu heralded what he called “a new and dramatic chapter” in the history of the Middle East. “The collapse of the Syrian regime is a direct result,” he said, “of the severe blows with which we have struck Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.”

… Israel’s message is clear: regardless of who governs Syria, Israel will ensure it does not possess the basic military capacity to defend itself.

“It’s showing Syrian people straight away, ‘Our problem is with you. It’s with your sovereignty, it’s with your existence, it’s with your security. What we’re doing now is making sure that you are totally defenseless. We’re exploiting this moment of chaos to completely disarm you and make sure that you’re completely defenseless…so that we can do whatever we like,’” said Robin Yassin-Kassab, a British-Syrian analyst…“There’s never been such crazy Israeli bombing in Syria. They’re disarm[ing] Syria completely, to make it completely defenseless and to humiliate it. That’s the way that Syrians are understanding it as well. They are humiliating Syria.”

Israel’s air attacks have targeted chemical and biological weapons labs, which obviously contain lethal toxins like ricin, sarin, anthrax, etc. In bombing them, the IAF has released them into the environment, thus potentially poisoning thousands, if not tens of thousands.  This is typical Israeli indifference to the suffering it causes.  Netanyahu’s offering of his hand to the Syrian people is an empty gesture reeking of hypocrisy.

Continuing the Biden administration’s shameful normalization of Israeli aggression, its spokesperson voiced “understanding” for the Golan land grab: “Israel has said that these actions are temporary to defend its borders. These are not permanent actions.”  If you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn.  Israel will withdraw from its newly conquered Syrian spoils years from now, if ever.

An Israeli media report notes:

“The IDF points out that the situation [its occupation of Syrian territory] is temporary. But as of now the assumption is it will be for a relatively long period of time.”

That’s perfectly clear to me.  Clear as mud.

Israel’s new temporary-relatively long occupation will give the Syrian Druze newly living under the Israeli military boot-heel the choice of accepting this or leaving their family homes where they’ve lived for generations.  Hardly anyone will care.  Certainly not Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

A military reporter for Israeli Army Radio tweeted updated intelligence about new “new reality” in Syria. I’ve italicized the most egregious elements of the tweet:

Snapshot of the Israeli operation [aka “invasion”] in Syrian territory and the new reality that is taking shape on the border:

1. The forces have already entered several kilometers into the buffer zone between Israel and Syria. Israel has set limitations for itself: operate only in the buffer zone, but do not cross the Syrian border line (the red line, “Bravo Line”), in order to maintain international legitimacy for the operation. At this stage…the US is informed and fully supports the Israeli operation…

2. ⁠ Sources in Israel tell me: “From our point of view, the separation of forces agreement between Israel and Syria from 1974 – is dead. It is no longer relevant, there is no regime or army on the other side that will uphold its side of the agreement, so we respect the Syrian border line but are working to reshape the security reality at the border.’

3. ⁠ The air strikes in the last day in Syria are a dramatic event: Israel is systematically destroying Assad’s army. Every possible military target that belonged to the Syrian regime is destroyed – tanks, planes, intelligence facilities, advanced military equipment. The air force bases have been operating in the last day as a aerial freeway of planes that leave and return from waves of attacks, with 2,000 lb. bombs and bunker busters.

4. ⁠ Israel conducts indirect communication with elements among the Syrian rebel factions. There are communication channels through the Druze community in Israel and Syria, through the Kurds, foreign intelligence organizations, and also the US. Sources in Israel say : “There is someone to talk to on the other side, messages have been conveyed.”

This statement of Israel’s new geostrategic “reality” is the most radical development since the 1973 War, during which Israel conquered and later annexed the Golan.  Despite its empty claims that it is respecting “the Syrian border” [sic], it has now erased Syria sovereignty as far as its security interests are concerned. It assigns to itself free access to whatever territory it wishes. Note also what this doesn’t say: that Israel will withdraw from its occupied territory when full control is re-established in Syria.  In other words, this is a permanent occupation of even more of the Golan than it already has.

The systematic destruction of Assad’s army is more than the elimination of an enemy’s military forces. Like the US dismantling of Saddam Hussein’s army and Baathist regime, it will leave a power vacuum inside the country.  There will no longer be any force capable of maintaining security and order, as happened in postwar Iraq.  This suits Israel’s interests in a weakened Syria state with little or no military capabilities.

Again, despite its claims, there is no “international legitimacy” for Israel’s “new reality.”  It has simply expanded its footprint and stolen even more Syrian land than it already illegally occupied.

Israel has a long history of conquest and occupation of territory of frontline Arab states: it occupied southern Lebanon between 1982 and 2000. In 1967, it invaded Jordan and occupied the West Bank. It also invaded Egypt and occupied the Sinai from 1967 to 1977.  In 1973, it conquered the Syrian Golan and has occupied it for the past 50 years.  All of these military operations were illegal under international law and widely condemned by foreign governments. But they’ve served Israeli’s purposes and advanced its regional interests.

Israel claims its occupation of Syrian territory is intended to prevent unfriendly forces from occupying the buffer zone between Israel and Syrian forces.  It further states this does not represent intervention in Syrian internal affairs:

“The IDF has deployed troops in the buffer zone and in a number of areas that are necessary to defend, in order to ensure the security of the communities in the Golan Heights and the citizens of Israel,” Israel Defense Forces said in a statement.

“We emphasize that the IDF is not interfering with the internal events in Syria. The IDF will continue to operate as long as necessary in order to preserve the buffer zone and defend Israel and its civilians.”

Following this disingenuous claim, the report continues:

The nation launched airstrikes in Syria, hitting weapons factories, including chemical weapons sites near Damascus.

Israel apparently is not intervening until it is intervening.  Contrary to what the IDF claims above, it has engaged in such violation of Syria’s sovereignty for years, amid hundreds of attacks against Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah targets.  In the Golan, it armed and supplied al Nusra as a buffer to prevent Hezbollah from opening a southern (Syrian) front against Israel.

Israel as catalyst for regional revolution

Global media have largely ignored the connection between 10/7, the fall of Assad, and the coming radical regional realignment.  Israel’s genocide in Gaza and subsequent attacks on Hezbollah and Iran itself, initiated a gradual disintegration of the old order.  Those assaults became a catalyst for the catastrophe that threatens the tenuous equilibrium of the Middle East. Israeli cyberattacks and assassinations decimated Hezbollah’s military command and fighting force.  Assassinations of Iranian commanders in Damascus and of Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, signaled the dissolution of the influence of these three Israeli enemies. It also meant that Assad had no more allies to turn to.  It was Israel which set all of this in motion.

Closing off Iranian access to Syria and its Lebanese allies is a major blow.  Iran has just lost its only allies contiguous to Israel.  That, in turn, seriously diminishes its ability to pressure Israel.  The latter can now pursue its regional interests without interference. Arab opposition to Israel’s genocide in Gaza will be lessened if not extinguished.  The looming ethnic cleansing and potential annexation of the West Bank can also proceed apace. Gaza will, for all intents, be annexed pro forma.  There may be Jewish settlements there in the not too distant future.  The incoming Trump administration will also end whatever pressure the Biden administration exerted on Israel to moderate its policies.  All of this is a disaster for the Palestinian cause.

Israeli’s colonial strategy: divide and conquer

Israel has, since 1967 pursued a classic divide and conquer strategy. It is a system devised and perfected by the British in its colonies in Africa and India: ally oneself with an ethnic minority against the majority, and use the resulting conflict to play one side against the other.  The resulting instability permits the colonial power to maintain a tenuous peace, while ruling over both and plundering the country’s natural resources and riches.

Israel has pursued this strategy repeatedly over many decades: to blunt PLO influence in the West Bank after the 1967 War it created the “Village Leagues,” consisting of clan leaders who opposed the PLO.  In southern Lebanon, it formed the South Lebanese (largely-Christian) army to contain the Shia population in the region.  In order to defeat the PLO in Lebanon in 1982, it helped found Hezbollah.  In order to foment unrest in the West Bank and Gaza, which were dominated by the PLO, it served as a catalyst in the creation of Hamas. During the Syrian civil war, it worked hand in glove with al Nusra in order to blunt Hezbollah and its attempt to open a southern front against Israel.  In almost all these cases, the strategy worked–until it didn’t. Then there was hell to pay.

So far, in the case of HTS, the strategy has paid off handsomely. It has played a key role in ridding Israel of three of its most implacable enemies, at least for the time being.

The most obvious territorial example of divide and conquer is the West Bank itself, where Israel has built settlements either encircling or within (Hebron) major Palestinian population centers. East Jerusalem, the largest and most important Palestinian population center, is completely isolated from surrounding villages by the Maalaeh Adumim colony. Without contiguity, there can be no territorial sovereignty, no Palestinian state. Without Jerusalem, there can be no capital of such a state.  This is precisely what Israel intends. While the world spouts rhetoric about a two state solution, Israel has created incontrovertible facts on the ground. You cannot create a state without land. This is precisely what Israel has denied the Palestinians.

However, the wild card is what HTS will do once it and its opposition allies take full control in Syria? What sort of regime will take hold?  Will it be a harsh fundamentalist movement governing–like ISIS–with an iron fist?  Will this Sunni movement suppress Christian and Alawite minorities as it becomes the dominant ruler?  Will there be a central government ruling the country?  Or will the various opposition military forces collapse into internecine warfare, turning the country into a set of fiefdoms constantly warring for power and plunder? Given past history, Syria and the region are heading into stormy seas.

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