9 thoughts on “Iran Threatens U.S. With Closure of Vital Strait If It Invokes New Oil Sanctions – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
Comments are published at the sole discretion of the owner.

  1. In a misplaced comment to the previous post I asked if anyone has seen Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lately. I thought I had seen speculation here that he is dead.

    Richard kindly replied: “No, you read a pro-Israel hack commenter quoting some lame-assed propaganda site making such a claim,” which I take to be a subtle confirmation that the speculation was not first posted here.

    But the question remains: Has anybody seen Mahmoud?

    Last week Iran had Admiral Habibollah Sayari admirably dressed in his naval uniform rattling submarines over Hormuz. Yesterday the Iranian dog and pony show featured vice-prick Mohammad Reza Rahimi. And today Sayari is back in the spotlight – a spotlight Ahmadinejad rarely shares.

    Maybe Mamoud took a few days off to attend the Nativity festivities in Bethlehem? Or maybe he really is with Gadaffi, bin Laden, Jong Il, and Menachim Begin? Just guessing.

    As far as closing Hormuz – I’m on the floor laughing.

    These tag-team threats indicate how much the Iranians are crapping in their pants. Recall the 1988 USS Roberts incident when Reagan went into Hormuz and totally kicked the Iranian navy’s butt in about 20 minutes. And then he followed that up a couple months later by blowing the Iranian Airbus with 290 passengers out of the sky.

    Iran has been making these idiot threats since at least 2008. Until they get their nuke, it’s all they have.

    Israel and its goons (i.e., US neocons and AIPAC controlling both Congress and the White House) are salivating for an act of war to let loose. Iran closing Hormuz would have roughly the same chances of succeeding as Iraq’s attack on Kuwait.

    But at least it would give Obama the war he needs to get re-elected – taking a page from Bush, and Reagan, and Nixon, and F.D.R., and Teddy R. and . . .

    1. Denis – Read about Iran’s supersonic anti-ship missile, Sunburn. It is Russian technology that Iran has adapted. The Hormuz closing has been war gamed by the Navy, and we lost big time. A missile launched from near the shore of the Straits would hit a ship in seconds – no time for defensive measures. The first slow moving tanker that got hit would stop any further tankers from even trying.

  2. I don’t see how the Iranians can close the Straits of Hormuz. The US Navy can move aircraft carriers with awesome firepower into the area.

      1. Perhaps they can hire somalian pirates for these hit and run attacks on tankers. Its not the event of closing the straits that matters, the big question is how long can they keep it closed?

  3. “Members of Congress grandstand and posture for their constituents. They pander for votes. Of course, they will vote for everything Aipac tells them to and more, in return for unlimited cash from pro-Israel donors.”

    Presidents have usually been as bad. Bush was as bad, and gave AIPAC the Iraq war. Obama blustered, got told the facts of life (by Emanuel?) and is reformed (unless he plans a January surprise (Jan 2013 that is).

  4. I’m still looking for a sighting of our boy Mahmoud. When was the last live sighting?

    I push this because today’s dog and pony threat-show was run by yet a third underling: deputy chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Hossein Salami.

    If anybody sees Mahmoud, tell him to please call home. The US would like to speak to him.

    @jdledell — oh yes, I agree that it would be a dust up. The Hormuz is 21-34 mi. at it’s narrowest, depending on who you read. I see it as 32 mi. on Google Earth. These are notoriously shallow waters. There is a 6 mi. wide shipping corridor comprising a 2 mi. wide channel in each direction and a 2 mi buffer. So there’s not a lot of elbow room. And as your scenario suggests land based anti-ship missiles would easily find their targets.

    But google “carpet bombing.” In response to a missile attack in the Strait, the US would not be doing precision bombing. The US would love such a provocation in order to flatten every building that could possibly be a source of trouble in Hormuz. This would, not coincidentally, include the uranium production facility at Bandas Abbas, not far from the naval base.

    In fact, have a look at the Iranian Naval base at Bandas Abbas, right on the strait. If you copy 27.159453° 56.169848° into google earth, you’ll see it. You can see a half dozen worn out amphibious craft and a few helicopters. You will also see in the docks 2 submarines and a number of frigates. This is what mince meat looks like before it goes through the grinder.

    If you want to see the grinder, go to Wiki and dial in “Fifth Fleet”

    I recall that there has been a lot of controversy over the “war game” outcomes for this scenario, which you mention. Originally the outcome was reported as dire, but these results were challenged. So the fluff goes both way as to how much damage Iran could do and for how long.

    But do you know what the best indicator is? Spot price on oil. Until the Bloomberg charts all go green and the barrel shoots past $200, you can pretty much guess that those who analyze these things are betting on the 5th Fleet. So far the spot has barely budged.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Share via
Copy link