Barclays Risk Assessment: Chance of Iran Attack Tripled in 2011
Reuters is reporting that Barclays Bank’s geopolitical risk analyst says that the chances of an attack on Iran have risen threefold in the past year. Though they rate the chances right now at 25-30%, personally I think they’re underestimating.
But just as interesting was this statement about the unintended consequences of the oil sanctions now being proposed by European and U.S. nations:
“If EU sanctions on Iranian oil were aimed at significantly reducing the flow of revenues to Tehran, they would perhaps seem no more likely to be successful than U.S. sanctions have been since 1988,” the note said.
“An inevitable knock-on effect of an EU embargo would be to push more Iranian oil eastward, without removing Iran’s ability to market all its crude available to export. In other words, the concentration of Iran’s buyers would increase, but the total volume would not be affected.”
In related news, Congress is considering legislation that would criminalize any contact with any representative of Iran or any group having any connection to it:
No person employed with the United States Government may contact in an official or unofficial capacity any person that–(1) is an agent, instrumentality, or official of, is affiliated with, or is serving as a representative of the Government of Iran; and (2) presents a threat to the United States or is affiliated with terrorist organizations.
The idea that the executive branch is the one charged by the Constitution with formulating foreign policy seems to have escaped them. It means, of course, that if the State Department was doing its job properly, several of its diplomats would soon be in leg irons. A pretty sight to envision. Maybe Barack and Hillary can bring them chicken soup at the federal pen.
7 thoughts on “Barclays Risk Assessment: Chance of Iran Attack Tripled in 2011 – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم”
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What they don’t say! That’s the whole point of the bill, isn’t it? Besides, it’s also preposterous on the grounds that the President could immediately pardon anyone convicted for such diplomacy on the govt’s behalf.
(2) means no one could ever be put on trial, not even before a military commission, for terrorist offenses, because the (govt-employed) court would have to “contact” the defendant, right?
Also, I thought in this whole mess of wars on who- or whatever the commander-in-chief couldn’t be unduly restrained by that quaint notion of rule-of-law? Or does this only go for Republican Presidents?
You could make a fortune on Intrade.
If you really think these estimates are way too low – I think they have it on the lower end of this range – you can make an investment on that website.
Intrade stinks. Wouldn’t waste a penny on it. Until shortly before Obama was nominated he was given a very small probability of winning. Intrade doesn’t predict, it follows the best current wisdom which often isn’t very good.
This legislation is directly a result of successful lobbying efforts by the American Isreali Public Affairs Committee. The Iranian Threat Reduction Act of 2011 (what they call it) was first proposed by Florida’s congresswoman Lleana Ros-Lehtinen. Personally, it is the worse idea with regard to U.S. foreign policy.
RE: “Barclays Risk Assessment: Chance of Iran Attack Tripled in 2011”
NOW MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME TO WATCH THIS EXCELLENT ISRAELI FILM (if you have not already seen it):
Lemon Tree (Etz Limon), 2008, NR, 106 minutes
A Palestinian widow (Hiam Abbass) fights to keep her lemon grove from being uprooted when Israeli security forces declare it a threat to the Israeli defense minister living next door (Doron Tavory) in this foreign-language drama. Teaming with a young lawyer (Ali Suliman), the widow takes her case to the Israeli Supreme Court…
Language: Hebrew (English subtitles)
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Wouldn’t the part the law about contacting Iranian reps be unconstitutional? It seems like a clear infringement upon executive power.
It certainly should be and likely will be ruled unconstitutional. But with this Court, who knows.