Operation Madness, Day 14: Palestinian dead, nearly 900, 40% women and children. Israeli dead, 13, three civilians.
It never ceases to amaze me the level of sheer wish fulfillment emanating from the Israeli intelligence establishment regarding their assessment of their Arab enemies. Listen to these statements quoted in the N.Y. Times today:
Israeli troops pushed into a heavily populated area of Gaza City…and senior Israeli officials said for the first time in the two-week-old war that they believed that the Hamas military wing was beginning to crack and that Hamas leaders inside Gaza were looking for a cease-fire…
The Israeli cabinet secretary, Oved Yehezkel, told reporters that in the cabinet meeting the heads of army intelligence, Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, and of the Shin Bet security service, Yuval Diskin, said, “It is the inclination within Hamas to agree to a cease-fire, given the harsh blow it received and given the absence of accomplishment on the ground.
…“I can say with a high level of confidence that for two days, what we have been hearing repeatedly is that Hamas inside Gaza is eager — eager — to achieve a cease-fire,” said the senior official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the issue’s delicate nature. “This is as opposed to the leadership in Damascus that is willing to fight to the last Palestinian.”
The Israelis were clearly all pushing a concerted message, but no official provided details on how Israel supported its assertion. It was impossible to get a response from Hamas leaders in Gaza, because they were in hiding from Israeli military strikes.
Israeli intelligence reminds me of the con man who thinks that if he says something convincingly enough and often enough his listener will believe him. And surprisingly many people are conned by such people. The reporters, though they dutifully reported the story left themselves an out in recognizing that Israeli officials have a tendency not only to attempt to snow the world media, but apparently to snow themselves (if they believe what they’re saying).
The only hopeful interpretation of this malarkey is that perhaps Israel makes this claim in order to prepare its own people for a near-term ceasefire. If they can convince the nation that it is Hamas clamoring for a ceasefire and ready to say “Uncle,” then it is easier to climb down from the precarious branch onto which they themselves have crawled.
I have said this any number of times and will say it yet again. There IS no way Israel can defeat Hamas short of occupying every square inch of Gaza and remaining there in force to prevent Hamas from reasserting itself. Hamas knows that no matter how severe the losses it must endure, it can only win. Even losing is a win as long as it survives.
Hamas, as Hezbollah before it in 2006, has emerged as the lions of resistance to Israel. Islamists the world over are lining up to do whatever they can to help Hamas. Israel’s assault throws Hamas ever more firmly into Iran’s embrace. This is a perfect storm for U.S. Middle East policy. Add this to the devastating failures we’ve endured regarding Iraq and our inability to negotiate a resolution of the Iran nuclear impasse.
On January 20th, when Barack Obama meets George Bush at the White House he’ll be tempted to quote the old Laurel and Hardy line: “That’s a fine mess you’ve gotten us into Ollie.” That is the Middle East policy Bush leaves Obama as his legacy. It’s an utter disaster.
The same report sketches out a possible ceasefire proposal. Frankly, I’m astonished it’s taken 16 days of fighting to get a coherent report of a ceasefire proposal. Until now, all I read from the U.S. and Israel was what they demanded from Hamas. I didn’t hear a peep about what Israel offered in return. So here it is finally:
Israel and the United States are trying to secure agreement on a deal brokered by Egypt that would mean a Hamas commitment to stop all rocket firing into Israel and an Egyptian commitment to block smuggling tunnels into Gaza, to stop the resupplying of Hamas with weaponry and cash. In return, Israel would agree to a cease-fire and the opening of its crossings into Gaza for goods and fuel and the opening of the Rafah crossing into Egypt, with European Union supervision.
Tony Blair, the former British prime minister and now an international envoy to the Palestinians, said in an interview that “the only way this is going to stop is if there is a genuine plan to end the smuggling into Gaza and a genuine plan to open the crossings.”
That’s good as far as it goes. But I wonder what is envisioned by “opening the crossings into Gaza for goods and fuel.” Does that mean an end to Israel’s siege? Or does it mean a continuing blockade under more beneficent rules? Further, these are almost the same provisions inscribed in previous ceasefires. Just as Israel wants to know that Hamas won’t be able to rearm & rocket southern Israel even if it wanted to, Hamas wants a guarantee that Israel can’t renege on its commitments and restore the blockade at its earliest convenience, which is what it has done in the past. In that sense, Blair’s got it precisely right.
The only way to guarantee that this works is to take it out of the hands of Hamas and Israel. The border with Egypt needs to be monitored carefully and illegal transfers need to be disrupted. If Egypt isn’t will to do this then they have to give the job to outsiders who will. Similarly, closing the Israeli crossings must not be left solely to Israel’s discretion. Monitoring the crossings certainly should be done by the Israelis, but not the decision on closing them. Again, this should be put in the hands of outsiders that both parties trust (at least nominally).
Getting Hamas to agree to a ceasefire is very different from Hamad being defeated. Do you not think it’s possible that Hamas might agree to a ceasefire?
The difference is evident to you but you’ll forgive me if I believe otherwise of the intelligence agencies. They believe the only reason Hamas would agree to a ceasefire is they’re whipped. And they’re not.
I believe Hamas will agree to a ceasefire when they perceive it is in their interests to do so (the same can be said for Israel). So the world community will have to present them a package that has something in it for them. If Israel can’t come up with concessions that provide that then Hamas can hold out for a long time.
The “something in it for them” will allow Hamas to claim victory, regardless of the rubble all around. This is what happened with Hezbollah in So Lebanon.
A ceasefire on the terms you describe being discussed does not begin to get to the further issues that will continue to fuel the violence. The situation is inherently unstable. Israeli’s will be very content to go about their business in quiet until Hamas will figure out another way to continue the ( violent) struggle.
BTW did you read Tom Segev’s article in yesterday’s
Washington Post? In case you did not:
Peace is No Longer In Sight
Richard-
What happened with the two rallies by Jews in Seattle regarding the Gaza War?
Segev’s article is interesting, it reflects what I am hearing in Israel. One correction that should be made, though, is that while it is true that the Muslim/religious influence on Arab policy regarding the Arab/Israeli conflict is not doubt increasing, the national religious component of Israeli society which provides the ideological backbone of the Judea/Samaria settlement movement has been marginalized politically. They were completely shut out of the current government coalition, and even if Netanyahu and the Likud win the next elections (something that is not so obvious if it is perceived that the current war ends positively for Israel), Bibi has already said he will form a coalition with the Leftist Kadima and Labor parties which will again effectively shut them out of power in that coalition as well.
Go and read Gershom Gorenberg’s essay in American Prospect about how Moshe Feiglin and his minions have hijacked Likud right out from under Bibi’s nose. F’s allies won prime spots on the Likud list. And they are all settler supporters. The settler movement has definitely not been marginalized. Since you support the settlers why would you even attempt to make such a half-assed claim?
You keep calling center-right parties like Kadima “leftist” which only reveals your right-wing views. Kadima is no more “leftist” than Ariel Sharon was.
I read a book last year called Curveball by Bob Drogin. In that he exposed the voluminous amounts of old or bogus information Mossad supplied about Iraqis so-called WMD – it was dated 1995.
I wonder if that is why they make ludicrous assertions like the last paragraph in this sort of mea culpa about the school massacre.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1054284.html
I particularly love the second to last paragraph – they must be lying because we only managed to kill three of our own when we blew up the wrong house with our “smart” bomb.
In Qana of course the claim was that the rocket was in the house, there were bombs inside the house, the children didn’t really die, but really it was –“oops got the wrong place” too damn bad about the women and kids.
In Baalbek it was ‘we thought it was a terrorist bunker” turned into “oops, it was just a farm”. Too bad about the dozens massacred.
In Beirut it was “Hezbollah infrastructure” which was schools, hospitals, roads, bridges, farms, cars fleeing, mosques and even a century old synagogue and crops and farms littered with cluster bombs.
Anyone out there still believe the liars and freaks in the IDF?
Why are you so desperately eager to believe that the Israeli officials are wrong? Would it be a disaster if they are right? I doubt it.
I am not “desperately eager” to believe Israeli officials are wrong or lie. But I’ve been observing and documenting their behavior for decades. My impressions are supported by all too much bitter experience. You rarely go wrong doubting an Israeli claim in the midst of conflict with the Palestinians. In addition, after years of sniffing out such statements you get a good sense of what is likely true and what is bullshit.
I wish the Israelis could be believed. It would make my life as a blogger easier (though not as interesting). Israel has a distinct policy that distortion, exaggeration & outright lying in pursuit of national interest is just fine. Bush had the same policy which was one reason I detested him.
The settlers are facist from Russia and Chechnya and other eastern block countries mostly. Utterly vile people.
I note the “democratic peace loving Israeli’s” have banned the arab parties from the lections, started to lock non-fighters in isolation for a couple of weeks, still ban the media and keep ignoring the UN.
I wonder what a rogue place like North Korea would do.
I also meant to say I love the albums you have shown. I am the world’s biggest Springsteen fan and can’t wait for next weeks new album.
Obama will be inaugurated on my birthday Australian time.