Trump’s Whipsaw War Only Set Back Iran “by Months”

Please read my latest two pieces:

• Jacobin Magazine on developments in the war against Iran
• The New Arab on the fraudulent Gaza humanitarian aid program.

Events concerning the US-Israel war on Iran come at a whipsaw pace.  First, Israel’s surprise attack. Following that, Trump’s surprise attack on Iran’s three major nuclear site. Then the US telling Iran it isn’t pursuing regime change; after which Trump contradicted his own vice-president and defense secretary saying: “why not regime change?”  Finally, Trump announced yesterday a ceasefire between Israel and Iran; which Iran confirmed and, after some delay, Israel did as well.  As with anything Trump says, the proof is in the actions of the parties–specifically Israel, which commenced the war.

Israel has announced that the ceasefire is acceptable to it because it has supposedly achieved all its military objectives.  This is clearly false since a 12-day war can never eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. Even moreso it cannot achieve regime change, another of Netanyahu’s stated goals.  He can, however, go the Israeli voter and boast about him being the first prime minister to actually strike a blow against the country’s so-called deadly enemy.

If the outstanding issues remain unresolved, then Netanyahu can resume hostilities at will.  Iran is the political gift that keeps on giving.

A US intelligence estimate says that minimal damage was actually done to Iran’s overall nuclear infrastructure:

A preliminary classified U.S. report says the American bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings, according to officials familiar with the findings.

The early findings conclude that the strikes over the weekend set back Iran’s nuclear program by only a few months, the officials said.

…Initial Israeli damage assessments have also raised questions of the effectiveness of the strikes. Israeli defense officials said they have also collected evidence that the underground facilities at Fordo were not destroyed.

…The findings suggest that President Trump’s statement that Iran’s nuclear facilities were obliterated was overstated.

…The sites were not damaged as much as some administration officials had hoped, and that Iran retains control of almost all of its nuclear material, meaning if it decides to make a nuclear weapon it might still be able to do so relatively quickly.

A US proliferation expert added:

“The ceasefire came without either Israel or the United States being able to destroy several key underground nuclear facilities, including near Natanz, Isfahan and Parchin…

These facilities could serve as the basis for the rapid reconstitution of Iran’s nuclear program.”

For this reason, the ceasefire is a remarkable come-down for Netanyahu–unless Iran has pre-agreed to eliminate its nuclear program, which seems highly unlikely.  If the ceasefire and ensuing negotiations do not produce a nuclear-free Iran, then it was won a major victory, despite the damage done by Israeli and US attacks.  It has also preserved 400kg of highly enriched uranium, which is close to weapons-grade.

As the saying goes: the weaker party does not need to win a war. All it needs to do is not lose it. Iran did not lose the war. In fact, its standing as the only state in the region which has struck major blows against Israel, is unimpeachable.

The Iranians have extraordinary technical capability to repair damaged equipment as we’ve seen during the Stuxnet attack, which destroyed a significant portion of its centrifuges.

Further, Iran still has the option of withdrawing from the IAEA and rushing to produce a bomb, either secretly or openly.  That may lead to repeated attacks by Israel and the US to degrade this possibility.  But the odds are that if the Supreme Leader decides to go for a bomb, Iran will get one.  This in turn will significantly bolster Iran’s ability to withstand future such attacks, as is the case with North Korea.

Today, Trump lashed out at Israel (see video above) for taking advantage of the 12-hour “grace period” before hostilities were to end. He railed:

“We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing,” a furious Trump said of Israel and Iran, each of which he accused of violating the truce he announced the night earlier.

The president affirmed he did not believe the ceasefire was broken. But he said he was unhappy in particular with Israel, who he said quickly violated the truce.

“Israel, as soon as we made the deal they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I’ve never seen before…The biggest load that we’ve seen.”

“I’m not happy with Israel. You know, when I say, ‘OK now you have 12 hours,’ you don’t go out to the first hour, just drop everything you have on, so I’m not happy with them. I’m not happy with Iran either,” he said.

“ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

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The irony is that Trump, supposedly the consummate dealmaker, didn’t realize that if you offer such a period to “wrap up” operations, Israel will fully take advantage to unleash a final massive blow.  When you are doing deals, you have to know the history of your negotiating partner and take that into account in doing the deal.  If you assume good faith when he hasn’t shown any in prior deals, you’re being played.

Israel’s behavior indicates that it doesn’t take the supposed agreement seriously. It has routinely broken almost every ceasefire and diplomatic agreement it has ever signed.  Why would it start adhering to them now?  Further, what consequence would it face in violating the agreement?  Is Trump going to take any action?  Make Israel pay a price for its behavior?  The answer is clearly no.  So why wouldn’t it pursue its own interests without regard to those of the US?

It is concerning that along with the ceasefire, there was no mention of negotiations. Without defining what comes next after the bombs no longer fall, they will undoubtedly resume their devastation at some point. Without such talks, the issue of the nuclear program and of Iran’s goal of ceasing hostilities for the longer term remain unaddressed.  It continues to fester and leads to the resumption of hostilities down the line.