MEDIA:
- My two-part interview with The Analysis (second and third videos below) on the Israeli plan to starve and permanently expel all Palestinians from northern Gaza, IDF to Eliminate Palestinians from Northern Gaza (parts 1 and 2).
- A September interview (first video below) with KCRW’s pre-eminent radical journalist, Bob Scheer on the Hannibal Directive on 10/7, Israel Killed Its Own.
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When I read this tonight I was simply astonished. It was like hearing horror stories for decades about a Frankenstein monster, and then have him show up at your door:
The U.S. has long supported Israel with intelligence and that support could continue during Israel’s retaliatory strikes against Iran, the two officials said. Senior U.S. military officials have also discussed conducting very limited strikes against Iranian targets, the two officials said. Strikes inside Iran have been discussed, as have strikes on targets outside Iran…
A bit of history is in order. In 2007, then-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert approached then-Pres. Bush urging him to bomb a Syrian nuclear reactor, but he refused. Israel later destroyed it. In 2009, the Israeli premier sought a joint strike on Iran’s nuclear sites. Again, he wisely refused. Presumably, he’d learned something about what happens when you attack Middle Eastern countries (i.e. Iraq and Afghanistan). Then in 2012, Bibi Netanyahu again approached a president, this time Obama, with a similar proposition. He too demurred and as a result, Netanyahu did not order an Israeli attack. He was also burdened by the opposition of all of his senior military and intelligence officials.
Biden breaks with US strategic policy
But now, Pres. Joe Biden proposes to throw the caution of nearly 20 years of US policy to the winds, during which it opposed both an Israeli attack and joint US-Israel operation. It beggars belief that a leader of a major global power would even contemplate doing such a wanton thing. A joint US-Israeli attack on a sovereign state, in the most volatile region in the world? One which teeters on the brink of a full-on regional war? I hope there are US generals shouting down this proposal. I fear there are not.
Clearly, this can’t be something Biden wants. He has at least enough intelligence to understand this is not a good idea. However, he is in desperate straits. He knows that Netanyahu doesn’t give a rat’s ass about his views. In fact, whatever Biden says he’d do just the opposite out of spite. That’s how much “fellow-feeling” there is between them.
Biden vs. Bibi: between a rock and a hard place
Netanyahu knows he has Biden between a rock and a hard place. He knows Biden is desperate to avoid Iran’s nuclear facilities in Israel’s planned attack. Biden knows that Bibi plans to do just that. The former knows that if Israel does bomb these sites, it will be full-blown war. Iran will launch massive counter-attacks with not hundreds, but thousands of missiles. It could cost Kamala Harris the election.
That’s why Biden is grasping at straws. That’s why he’s offered to join Israel’s road-to-ruin operation. To sweeten the pot, Biden has added extra goodies: he’s promised Israel “compensation” for avoiding the nuclear sites. It’s something akin to paying a murderer not to kill your mother:
The package would include a total guarantee of comprehensive diplomatic protection as well as a weapons package and was offered directly in return for holding off on striking certain targets in Iran.
What could “diplomatic protection” mean? It probably means the US continuing to cover Israel’s ass in the UN Security Council. It probably means exerting maximum US pressure on international bodies investigating Israeli genocide like the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice, among others. It may also include lobbying, even threatening nations diplomatically on behalf of Israeli interests.
Perhaps even more important, Biden has offered Israel unspecified advanced weapons systems it doesn’t already possess. It’s not enough that we’ve supplied thousands of tons of bunker buster bombs to murder Hamas and Hezbollah’s senior leaders. Bibi will take whatever we have that he doesn’t already have.
Bibi: a consummate extortionist
We all knew Bibi was a corrupt grifter. We all knew where most people have a sense of right and wrong, Bibi has an empty hole. We all knew he was a two-timing liar. We all knew that he would sell his grandmother if it meant keeping his ass out of jail. Some of us even knew he was a consummate extortionist. Someone who relishes watching his rival squirm. Remember when Barack Obama thought he could buy off Bibi’s opposition to the Iran nuclear deal with a $30-billion weapons package? Look how that turned out. He took the weapons and he ran; never wavering an inch from his vehement opposition to the deal.
Now he can, if he chooses, do the same to Biden. Squeeze him like a lemon. Until the juices flow. But what does Bibi want? New US toys or Iranian blood? Whichever one helps him the most to retain power.
Israel will likely attack Iran nuclear sites
My guess is that Bibi wants to batter the Ayatollah more than he wants Biden’s bribe. I believe Israel will not only attack Iran, but it will do so massively and attack every target it can–especially military, intelligence, IRG and nuclear sites:
The most likely targets would be any site or unit associated with Iran’s missile assault on Israel this week, including command and control centers, missile launchpads, fueling sites and even commanders overseeing the country’s ballistic missile arsenal.
Israel also could go after intelligence centers, often located at military bases, in response to an apparent Iranian attempt to strike the headquarters of Israel’s Mossad spy agency…
…Israel could choose to bomb other military targets, such as air defense systems and drone sites…[It] could opt to bomb Iran’s oil infrastructure, which is the country’s economic lifeline…
One option would be to hit gasoline refineries that mainly serve Iran’s domestic market, possibly limiting the impact on the global economy. The Persian Gulf Star plant in Bandar Abbas is the most important domestic source of gasoline for Iran, having met about 40% of the country’s needs last year…Such a strike would be likely to cause economic upheaval for Iran…
Or Israel could pursue a broader assault that would encompass oil and gas facilities over a wide area, including terminals used to ship oil out of the country. Such an approach would mean hitting Kharg oil terminal…which handles more than 90% of the country’s oil exports.
The jewel in the crown, of course, is Iran’s nuclear complexes at Natanz, Bushehr, Fordo and Isfahan. While the other sites could cause immense damage economically, the nuclear sites are a source of the nation’s pride and a key strategic asset. For that reason, Bibi would like nothing more than shove in the ayatollahs’ faces that he can vaporize them. This falls short of toppling them completely. Regime change has been a cherished dream for Israel and US neocons for decades. But that isn’t in the cards (yet).
However, actually destroying Iran’s nuclear capability is next to impossible. The bombs used to assassinate Nasrallah and his successor, powerful as they might be, will not penetrate these largely underground reinforced structures. At best, he can inflict major damage on specific sites. But the Iranians have already prepared for such an eventuality by building redundancy into its planning. If Israel takes out one site, Iran will activate another to replace it.
Bibi wants war, not ceasefire, not peace
What are Netanyahu’s calculations? They aren’t those of a normal national leader. He does not want peace. He actually wants war. War is good for him and, in his warped mind, good for Israel (though parents of Israeli hostages vehemently disagree). That is why he refuses a hostage deal in Gaza. That is why he has invaded Lebanon and assassinated much of Hezbollah’s senior leadership. It is why he’s intent on provoking regional war against Iran.
He has a vision: to remake the Middle East into an Israel-friendly zone. Unfettered hegemony. One in which Israel’s interests take precedence over all others. One in which other nations become the equivalent of vassal states, acceding to Israeli demands.
Of course, Netanyahu recognizes that today the world is unlike the ancient era when Rome, Greece and Persia ruled vast swaths of territory and had conquered rulers bowing at their feet. He may be a sociopath and narcissist, but he recognizes there will be some restraints on the projection of Israeli power.
Bibi’s megalomania
Bibi’s dream is to achieve what’s been denied to all his predecessors. It’s been a cherished dream for Israel to normalize relations with the Arab world. He did this with the Abraham Accords. It’s been his dream to liquidate Israel’s fiercest enemies. He’s done that (or thinks he has) in Gaza and Lebanon. The crowning glory would be to bring Iran to its knees. Israeli prime ministers have, since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, railed against the Islamist state. As early as 1984, Israeli headlines began blaring warnings of Iran’s impending nuclear weapon. The Mossad has orchestrated the assassination of multiple nuclear scientists. It has sabotaged IRG missile bases. But no prime minister has been willing or able to land a smashing blow. Now Bibi has a chance.
If you detect an element of pathological thinking in all this, you’d be right. Netanyahu is full of grandiosity; thoughts of his own greatness. Despite the contempt in which much of the country holds him, he retains a sense of his own destiny. It is horrifying, because no one knows where this megalomania could take us and the world.
The thought of the US getting sucked into this vortex of death evokes an emotion beyond despair. I literally don’t have words to express the enormity of this horror, which appears to be moving down the track like a slow-motion train-wreck.
If I was Iran then I would take Netanyahu’s promise of revenge at face value and launch a preemptive attack first WITHOUT ANY WARNING TO THE USA
There is no use waiting until half your ballistic missiles are put out of action. The timidity of the Ayatollah’s regime, like that of Hezbollah is counter productive.
Don’t poke the tiger
@ Tony greenstein: Iran is trying to tread carefully. If it launches an all-out attack it will likely draw the US into a war on Israel’s side. That could devastate Iran. Unlike Bibi, who is hellbent on regional war, Iran is trying to assert itself without sticking its neck out too far. It understands that whatever its capabilities, it cannot match the combined military arsenal of both Israel and the US.
Starmer’s Government Complicit In Gaza Genocide
In 1996 neoconservatives led by Richard Perle produced the policy paper titled “A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm” for the attention of then-Israeli PM, the Likud party’s Benjamin Netanyahu.
| UK Intelligence liaison | GCHQ – NSA – Unit 8200 …
war atrocities murdering civilians … committing ugly war crimes including torture until death follows.
Israeli forces fire on UN peacekeepers in Lebanon | UN News – 10 Oct 2024 |
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/10/1155551
Members of the elitist western empire have threatened the ICC in The Hague and the specific judges and prosecutors in the responsible role of their decision on arrest warrants for alleged genocidal acts under the leadership of PM Netanyahu and Defense minister (minister of war) Gallant.
Their silence is deafening and undermines the United National and the very critical UN Charter. The world weeps with the Palestinians …
ICC A Political Tool of the Empire?
The title could have read: “America’s Revenge On the Islamic State of Iran”
Bidenomics is Maga for thinking people
Opinion piece in The Guardian …
Analysis is close, in the right direction, but not quite there …
Facing war in the Middle East and Ukraine, the US looks feeble. But is it just an act?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/10/war-middle-east-ukraine-us-feeble-biden-trump
Has been clear to me from the early months of the Biden-VP Who? administration. AmericaFirst! 🇺🇸
🇺🇸 Biden’s ’Multilateralism’ Amounts To AmericaFirst!! | 25 March 2021 |
🇩🇪 Deglobalization: US Attack On Europe’s Heart | 23 Dec 2022 |
Joe’s Hail Mary pass late in the game … an attack on Iran would be helpful to support Zelenskyy’s “Victory Plan” to get Russia on its knees.
Are you really referring to Joe Biden himself in the article or to his puppeteers (e.g. Blinken and Sullivan)?
It is very obvious from several videos that Joe Biden has senile dementia and thus he cannot even decide what to have for breakfast, imagine if he can take any decision about the situation in the Middle East!
Secondly, I hardly believe that there are deep fractures between Israeli and American leadership. Their words cannot be taken at face value. How long have US officers and diplomats saying that they are reaching a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and what have they achieved so far? Nothing! They are just buying time for Israel. There may be some disagreements, but not as deep as you think. If the US leadership wanted to end the war in the MIddle East, they could do it very easily by just stopping the flow of weapons and ammunition to Israel and removing their diplomatic cover of Israel at international institution (ICC, ICJ and UNSC), then Israel would stop its indiscriminate destructive actions immediately. Instead they keep supporting the genocidal Israeli leadership.
Late in the game, option was published by Karim Khan himself …
The powerful operate in mode of impunity 🤬
Building a Regional Superpower in a New Middle East
Secretary of State Antony Blinken declines to identify ’red line’ for [military] aid to Israel | 12 May 2024 |
Today on regional war with its neighbours and impunity for Israel to do what is “needed” …
The Jewish State of Israel as last stand for the United States in the Middle east.
((youtube gOmgK1ZpcT4))
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOmgK1ZpcT4
Blinken: Future of Lebanon Depends on Its Citizens | Full Statement | AC1C
Reiterating the words from Bibi Netanyahu, it is up to the Lebanese to rid themselves of the “terror” state within a state. Israel is merely defending itself so its citizens can return home and children can safely return to school. Blinken didn’t mention where future borders would be, leaving that up to minister Smotrich.
Reading between the lines of diplomatic nonsense … the U.S. and Israel will provide a day of reckoning with the Islamic Republic of Iran for the “evil” going back nearly half a century. Putting Iran on notice …
Ismaele above has it correct. Biden and the rest of his crowd are all in for a war with Iran. Always have been.
Anything coming out of the White House suggesting the Biden and Netanyahu are at odds, or that the US wants to “restrain” Netanyahu, is complete nonsense. It is merely a CYA cover story to enable the US to declare that it was not at fault when the wider Middle East war erupts and then goes sideways as US wars always do.
Harris is already painting herself as “not Biden” in order to throw Biden under the bus when the war fails (assuming she wins the election and is still President when it becomes painfully obvious that the war has failed.
As for Iran not being able to match US firepower, yes, it can. All the US military is good for is bombing civilian infrastructure. It’s completely incapable of defeating any significant military power at this point in time. Iran has enough short-range missiles to devastate US bases in the region. Iran’s entire military strategy is defensive and relies on two things: 1) its missile arsenal, and 2) underground facilities impervious to even US “bunker buster” bombs.
In addition, Iran is secure due to its physical size, large population, and in addition to a relatively large army it has a militia forces varying from one million to ten million men, depending on whose estimate you believe. As such, no ground invasion of Iran can succeed (as Iraq proved in the 1980s.)
And of course, Iran can inflict massive damage on the world’s economy by cutting the oil flow in the Persian Gulf. US Navy claims that it can “keep the Straits open” are a pipe dream. US Navy mine-clearing operations have been an utter failure, and in any event it will be impossible for them to continue under fire from Iran’s large arsenal of anti-ship missiles concealed in shoreline caverns.
The problem is that both the US military and the Israeli military – including Netanyahu and the Biden neocons – do not understand the shift in military power over the last two decades. So Netanyahu and Biden think that the combination of the US and Israel can take out all of the US and Israel’s enemies in the region. That is what this conflict is about.
Unfortunately for them, that is not the case. The combined power of the Axis of Resistance – Iran, Hezbollah, Syria and Iraqi Shia, and the Yemenis – are quite capable of fighting the US and Israel – and NATO, too, if they involve themselves – to a draw.
I cover this issue in detail in my recent Substack posts:
Armageddon in the Middle East – Part 1 – Why It’s Inevitable
https://richardstevenhack.substack.com/p/armageddon-in-the-middle-east-part-a9a
Armageddon in The Middle East – Part 2 – Correlation of Forces and Methods
https://richardstevenhack.substack.com/p/armageddon-in-the-middle-east-part
Armageddon in The Middle East – Part 3 – Scenarios and Implications
https://richardstevenhack.substack.com/p/armageddon-in-the-middle-east-part-8a2
Armageddon in The Middle East – Part 4 – The Nuclear Option
https://richardstevenhack.substack.com/p/armageddon-in-the-middle-east-part-b3e
Richard Steven Hack: Please do not use the comment threads to promote your own blog. 4 links to your posts is a few too many.
You’re not facing facts. While I sympathize with Iran’s plight and certainly denounce what Israel is doing, we have to be sober about what’s at stake here. Israel can do massive damage to Iran (and I fear it will). The former has delusions about how much damage it can do and what impact it will have on Iran. And that is Israel’s fatal flaw. Nevertheless, Iran will suffer a terrible blow. One that it can survive. But we should not minimize it as you have.