NOTE: In the past few weeks, I’ve been interviewed for several public radio stations and published a new article. I’d appreciate your listening and reading and promoting on your social media platforms:
- Dennis Bernstein on KPFA’s Flashpoints is available here. My latest interview is here at 48:20.
- John Sakowicz Heroes and Patriots on Mendocino’s KMUD program is here. It covered 10/7 and the Gaza war, including a critique of Biden administration policy.
- KMUD’s Jimmy Durschlag, Global Stuff (audio stream).
- KFPA’s David Rosenberg is here.
- I published a piece at The New Arab about Aipac’s theft of American democracy.
The IDF, while continuing to wreak havoc on Gaza, is increasingly posturing itself as opposed to Netanyahu. His stated goal is the complete eradication of Hamas. He has never, despite Pres. Biden’s claim to the contrary, supported a ceasefire.
The army leadership appears to be defying him. It has now urged a ceasefire which would leave Hamas in place, ruling on Gaza. As I wrote in my last post, chief spokesperson Adm. Daniel Hagari, said that “Hamas is an idea you cannot kill.” Claiming otherwise is “throwing sand in the face” of the Israeli public.
The army also believes the only way to secure the release of all the hostages is through a ceasefire and prisoner exchange. Again, this is something Netanyahu has resisted for months. He maintains the delusion that the hostages can be released through rescue missions like the one in Nuseirat which led to the slaughter of 300 Gaza civilians.
Do these apparent contradictions mean the army is prepared to mutiny? That it will refuse to follow orders? No. As I wrote above, the killing continues apace in Gaza. That also includes the killing of Israeli soldiers. The army continues to fight. The slaughter continues apace.
But there are looming constraints upon the IDF fighting capabilities. It is running out of ammunition. Its troops have been fighting for months with little relief. They need down time and retraining to prepare for an imminent war in Lebanon.
Contrary to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s claim that the army can fight a seven-front war if necessary, the senior command understand this is wishful thinking. They understand how fierce upcoming combat against Hezbollah’s seasoned fighters will be. That’s why they want to be rid of Gaza.
What exactly do these demurers by the military command mean? Is the army’s purported rebellion really meaningful? Or is it a bit of theater performed for the sake of the Israeli public? Clearly, the army understands the will of the people. It knows the war is increasingly unpopular. It knows that the longer the fighting continues the less likely there will be a hostage left alive. It knows the hostage families want their loved ones home–alive. The army, unlike Netanyahu, needs the support of the people. Unlike Netanyahu, whose primary constituency is his far-right partners Ben Gvir and Smotrich.
Hagari’s statement and the Times article are intended to assure the people that it is on their side, while doing almost nothing to back up its claims. The fighting has not stopped. The hostages remain captive. If the words of the generals meant anything, they would stop the war. The IDF wants to have it both ways: it will continue military operations in Gaza in order to appease Netanyahu, while claiming to support a ceasefire to appease the vast majority of Israelis who want the war to end. It is the ultimate cynical ploy for which Gaza suffers.
Lebanon
Despite claims by Israeli officials that they don’t seek a war against Hezbollah, buttressed by attempts of US diplomats to dampen the hostilities–it’s clear that military leaders on both sides are preparing, and perhaps eager for such a confrontation.
There is immense anger in the Arab world about the genocide in Gaza; especially among the Axis of Resistance including Hezbollah, Syria, Iraqi Shiites, Iran, and the Houthis. They are hell bent on revenge for the 40,000 Gazan dead.
Iran, Israel’s foremost regional enemy, has pledged to join in any attack by Israel on Hezbollah. While the latter has an estimated 150,000 missiles which it can rain down on almost any target inside Israel, Iran has far more, quantatively and qualitatively at its command. No amount of Iron Dome batteries can defend against such an onslaught.
A former Israeli spokesperson estimated that several hundred Israelis would die in such an invasion. I’d multiply that by several orders of magnitude. Not to mention Lebanese and possibly Iranians who will die in Israeli attacks.
It will be a perfect storm of regional catastrophe. A genocide in Gaza and another in Lebanon. Added to that, Hezbollah’s allies will join the fray. It promises to be the first regional war in the Middle East since 1967. Except this time, one party has nuclear weapons and the others have massive amounts of lethal firepower.
The Biden administration will be right in the thick of it–as it has been in Gaza. We have been Israel’s chief enabler. If there is war in Lebanon, clearly the president will come to its aid again. Not to mention that Biden is enfeebled physically, cognitively and politically. All conditions ripe for Israel to exploit for its advantage.
How long can such madness go on? How many times can we destroy our credibility and stature in the world? How low can we go?
Richard, what do you think about the recent Lancet publication that was extrapolating on “secondary” dead in Gaza? I’m curious to hear your thoughts.
I put the secondary in quotations because to me they’re just as important and just as genocided.
Watch this site. It’s my next upcoming blog post.
Richard,
What do you think the chances are that Iran has, at this point, decided to either develop its own secret nuclear arsenal, or accepted help from either Russia or N. Korea in acquiring a nuclear weapon?
Also, if Turkiye were to decide to join a regional war against Israel, which is not unlikely, it could receive nuclear weapons from Pakistan to use against Israel, and it might decide to do so. (Pakistan has offered to give Turkiye nuclear weapons.)
Israel has already hinted that it will use nuclear weapons, so would it not be unwise for its enemies not to contemplate using them too?
This could easily escalate beyond a regional war…. What is your take on all this?
@ Brigit: I think you hypotheticals are unlikely. Turkey will not join any war between Iran and Israel. It has national interests which supercede solidarity with Hezbollah. Even if Pakistan supplied Turkey with a nuclear weapon (itself improbable) it would not permit Turkey to use it in such a conflict.
Israel has not hinted it would use nuclear weapons in Lebanon. It will use them if the country is under imminent threat. Use of nuclear weapons was only contemplated once, during the 1973 war, but never used.
Iran does not have a nuclear weapon. It cannot use one in this scenario. It is working to perfect a nuclear weapon. But will not have one and will not deploy it when/if it does. Instead it will maintain an ability to put the components together & deploy one in the event of the threat of an attack on its soil.
I thought that both the IDF and Hezbollah said that if there is a ceasefire with Hamas, then Hezbollah will stop shooting rockets and missiles at Israel.
If that is so, the argument that there must be a ceasefire in Gaza to allow the IDF to get ready to fight Hezbollah (paragraphs 5 & 6) is a smokescreen. Is this just part of the IDF’s “ultimate cynical ploy”?
And if Hezbollah is “hell bent on revenge for the 40,000 Gazan dead,” shouldn’t they attack Israel now when the IDF is presumably worn out?
@Jeff: Yes, Hezbollah will definitely stand down if Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza. I doubt the IDF would attack Lebanon if Hezbollah stood down. But since 10/7 the defense minister has been itching for a war in Lebanon. Israel usually needs a pretext to start wars. If Hezbollah doesnt provide one then a war becomes less likely. But then again, Israel could assassinate a key IRG or Hezbollah commander & the response would be all Israel needs to launch an invasion.