7 thoughts on “Bibi Wants War Without End, the IDF Says No…or Does It? – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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  1. Richard, what do you think about the recent Lancet publication that was extrapolating on “secondary” dead in Gaza? I’m curious to hear your thoughts.

  2. Richard,

    What do you think the chances are that Iran has, at this point, decided to either develop its own secret nuclear arsenal, or accepted help from either Russia or N. Korea in acquiring a nuclear weapon?

    Also, if Turkiye were to decide to join a regional war against Israel, which is not unlikely, it could receive nuclear weapons from Pakistan to use against Israel, and it might decide to do so. (Pakistan has offered to give Turkiye nuclear weapons.)

    Israel has already hinted that it will use nuclear weapons, so would it not be unwise for its enemies not to contemplate using them too?

    This could easily escalate beyond a regional war…. What is your take on all this?

    1. @ Brigit: I think you hypotheticals are unlikely. Turkey will not join any war between Iran and Israel. It has national interests which supercede solidarity with Hezbollah. Even if Pakistan supplied Turkey with a nuclear weapon (itself improbable) it would not permit Turkey to use it in such a conflict.

      Israel has not hinted it would use nuclear weapons in Lebanon. It will use them if the country is under imminent threat. Use of nuclear weapons was only contemplated once, during the 1973 war, but never used.

      Iran does not have a nuclear weapon. It cannot use one in this scenario. It is working to perfect a nuclear weapon. But will not have one and will not deploy it when/if it does. Instead it will maintain an ability to put the components together & deploy one in the event of the threat of an attack on its soil.

  3. I thought that both the IDF and Hezbollah said that if there is a ceasefire with Hamas, then Hezbollah will stop shooting rockets and missiles at Israel.

    If that is so, the argument that there must be a ceasefire in Gaza to allow the IDF to get ready to fight Hezbollah (paragraphs 5 & 6) is a smokescreen. Is this just part of the IDF’s “ultimate cynical ploy”?

    And if Hezbollah is “hell bent on revenge for the 40,000 Gazan dead,” shouldn’t they attack Israel now when the IDF is presumably worn out?

    1. @Jeff: Yes, Hezbollah will definitely stand down if Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza. I doubt the IDF would attack Lebanon if Hezbollah stood down. But since 10/7 the defense minister has been itching for a war in Lebanon. Israel usually needs a pretext to start wars. If Hezbollah doesnt provide one then a war becomes less likely. But then again, Israel could assassinate a key IRG or Hezbollah commander & the response would be all Israel needs to launch an invasion.

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