Gaza and Lebanon: Bibi’s Once and Future Wars

NOTE: In the past few weeks, I’ve been interviewed for several public radio stations and published a new article. I’d appreciate your listening and reading and promoting on your social media platforms:

• Dennis Bernstein on KPFA’s Flashpoints is available here. My latest interview is here at 48:20.
• John Sakowicz Heroes and Patriots on Mendocino’s KMUD program is here. It covered 10/7 and the Gaza war, including a critique of Biden administration policy.
• KMUD’s Jimmy Durschlag, Global Stuff (audio stream).
• KFPA’s David Rosenberg is here.
• I published a piece at The New Arab about Aipac’s theft of American democracy.

There has been a mutiny of sorts within the ranks of the IDF senior command.  A recent statement by its spokesperson, Adm. Daniel Hagari reveals a major split with Bibi Netanyahu.  The former declares that the mission to eradicate Hamas is the equivalent of “throwing sand” in the eyes of the Israeli public. An illusion perpetrated by a leader who is a fraud. He added:

“Hamas is an idea. You cannot kill an idea. It’s the government’s responsibility to find alternatives [to Hamas] or it  will remain [in power].”

He labels it an “ideology” and notes you cannot defeat an ideology unless you substitute it for something else that is more compelling. Of course, Hamas is a hybrid: a religious-nationalist movement.  Which is not the same as ideology.

Offering “alternatives” is an allusion to the US plan to hand Gaza to a so-called “reformed” Palestinian Authority. Thus making Gaza the PA’s problem rather than America’s or Israel’s.  Of course, this is no solution at all, since the PA is as corrupt as the day is long.

To ensure stability and order, the Biden administration has proposed an undefined Gulf presence to maintain it. This is merely substituting one occupier with another. Presumably, according to this thinking, Gazans would accept an Arab occupying army rather than an Israeli one. An untested and dubious assumption. Not to mention that Hamas would be only too happy to blacken a few eyes of those states (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, etc.) which have betrayed it on behalf of normalization.

Hagari’s statement does not represent a full fledged mutiny. The army is willing to keep fighting as long as Bibi tells it to.  Thus,Hagari seeks to project a “reasonable” IDF, as opposed to a delusional Netanyahu. The army knows Israelis want the war to end and the return of the hostages.  With this ploy, it seeks to pin the blame for its continuation on anyone but itself.  But the result is the same. More war. More genocide.

The IDF now claims it has liquidated the Hamas battalions in Rafah:

…the IDF said that within a couple of weeks it would likely be in control of all of Rafah and that the final battles with the remaining two Hamas battalions…are already underway.

But given that at some point Hamas had 4,000 to 8,000 terrorists in Rafah, it is pretty clear that the vast majority fled with the mass of civilians who left the area.

Last October, Israel invaded Gaza and subdued the north. Then it moved south and now claims control of  Rafah.  Except there is one major problem.  Subduing an area does not mean you have defeated or eradicated its defenders. It only means that they’ve permitted you to seize it by slipping away and moving toward your next target.  Once the IDF abandons territory it has secured, Hamas fighters return to fight another day.

For the past month, there have been fierce battles between Israel forces and Hamas in the northern Gaza refugee camp.  Several Israeli soldiers have been killed. That’s an area that the IDF supposedly “secured” just after it invaded the enclave.

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This repeats a scenario common to many wars by conventional military forces against mass insurgencies. There is no military strategy that can defeat an an armed movement deeply enmeshed within the local population–one which offers a political, cultural and religious agenda that resonates with it.

The IDF offers a body count approach to the Gaza insurgency.  That’s not the way to win wars.  Every insurgency can replace fighters it loses with new recruits. As long as there is grievance the pipeline will always be full.  And there are generations worth of grievance in Palestine.

The IDF is using another tired trick to justify its failure to eliminate Hamas, which is Netanyahu’s declared goal. It is creating the illusion that the fighting is winding down, last remnants of resistance are being mopped up, etc. It gives the Israeli public the impression that there is light at the end of the tunnel.  That the end is near.  It isn’t.

Lebanon: the war to come

Even if the fighting in Gaza does wind down, it will merely shift to a new front against Hezbollah.  Not content with genocide on Gaza, it is preparing for a new one in Lebanon. It has already entirely leveled a southern Lebanese village, creating a 5km “dead zone.”  Once again proof of its genocidal intent.

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The IDF cannot create a dead zone anywhere in Lebanon.  It can destroy buildings and kill civilians.  But it cannot eradicate the will of Hezbollah to resist its aggression.  It cannot defeat Hezbollah. In fact, it’s almost impossible for a conventional army to defeat such an armed militia defending its own home ground.

Compared to Hamas, Hezbollah is far better equipped and prepared for Israeli tactics. It has well over 100,000 advanced missiles capable of striking much of Israel.  It is dug in underground with a far larger tunnel network than Hamas in Gaza.  Israeli bombs will barely dent its capabilities.

In 2006, 160 Israelis died in IDF invasion of Lebanon.  If there is a new war, the death toll will be multiples of that–certainly five to ten times more than the 2,000 Israelis who have died in southern Israel and Gaza since 10/7.

The US is vainly attempting to avoid such a conflict.  But its efforts ignore the only real way to avoid one: end the war in Gaza. Hezbollah made clear that it is fighting on the northern front on behalf of Hamas, until there is a ceasefire.  Without one, Hezbollah will not stop its attacks.  Ignoring the imperative for a ceasefire is a recipe for failure.

After Gaza, the IDF will commence yet another round of senseless slaughter. All for the sake of keeping the crown on the head of the most avaricious and bloodthirsty of all Israel’s leaders.

The only comfort I can take in this–as an American–is that Bibi can only embroil the Middle East in conflict, unlike a US president who can bathe the entire world in blood. This week’s debate has vastly increased the chances it will be Donald Trump which should sow fear in the hearts of the world.