US officials are currently in Saudi Arabia meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Palestinian Authority officials putting the final touches on a normalization agreement with Israel. The Saudis need Palestinian approval of the deal as “cover” to protect its reputation among its own citizens and other Muslim states:
…As home to two of the most important holy sites in Islam, Saudi Arabia is looking to secure a meaningful concession from Israel to fend off criticism from rivals in Iran and Turkey looking to accuse the kingdom of quashing Palestinian dreams of an independent state. The Palestinian issue also remains important for activists in Saudi Arabia and around the world.
Other Arab states which normalized have faced protests and even violence in response to such efforts. This occurred in Libya, where the foreign minister was sacked and forced into exile after meeting with her Israeli counterpart, who urged her country to normalize relations.
The PA, known for its rampant corruption enriching its top officials, sees something in it for themselves. They have decided there is no hope of realizing the national aspiration which inspired Palestinians for decades.
We have all been here before. In 2017, I wrote about a similar situation in which MBS summoned Mahmoud Abbbas to Riyadh to persuade him to go along with the then-Trump administration’s plan for normalization. Then, the joint enemy was Iran, and the US and Saudis wanted to forge a common front against it. That effort failed.
Back then, MBS held out the promise of a Palestinian state as part of the bargain. By now, the PA’s stock has plummeted. And a proto-fascist Israeli government isn’t going to offer the Palestinians bupkis. My how time changes things.
So apparently a rich payday for them is the next best thing. Though the Saudis cut off financial support in 2016, due to claims of PA corruption, before then it was giving $200-million per year. The price has undoubtedly risen considerably, since the Saudis need Palestinian support to legitimize the deal.
Will they build a single school? A hospital? A sewage treatment plant? The answer is obvious. It will build villas, buy fancy cars, send their children to schools abroad. But nothing for the rest of the people.
The PA banks on its own citizens not putting up much of a fight, assuming they are too exhausted by Israel’s crushing and incessant attacks on Palestinian towns and villages to do so. It also banks on its security services to put down any such protest.
If the PA enters into such a corrupt bargain it likely will mark the end of one current iteration of the Palestinian national movement. Certainly, it will mark the end, or the beginning of the end of the PA and Fatah’s leadership of it. After this, only Hamas and Islamic Jihad will truly represent ordinary Palestinians: the ones who don’t have their hands in the till. The ones facing nightly raids by IDF thugs. The ones whose children are being murdered every night. Because the PA sold them out and left them with nowhere else to turn. They had such hopes. But they died long ago and this kiss-of-death betrayal is the final nail in the casket.
Even Tom Friedman, like a clock, is right twice a day
Even a solidly pro-Israel commentator like Tom Friedman raised a warning to the Biden administration about how problematic normalization will be with the Israeli partner:
You cannot have normalization with an Israeli government that is not normal. It will never be a stable U.S. ally or Saudi partner. And right now, Israel’s government is not normal.
As usual, I disagree with much of the rest of his column, including the claim that the US should save Israel from itself:
It is hard for U.S. diplomats, the U.S. military, U.S. citizens and U.S. Jewish organizations to grasp that their role now is to save Israel from an internal Israeli Jewish threat, manifested by the government itself.
No. Not only can the US NOT do so, even if it could it would mean us imposing our own interests and viewpoint on a foreign country. We’ve seen how well that’s worked in various Middle East forays. The only way to truly normalize Israel is via coordinated, forceful international intervention. And the prospect of that currently is nil.
Here, Friedman essentially offers the Palestinian demands for their agreement with the deal:
The deal…should stipulate that in return for normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Israel must freeze all settlement building in the West Bank in the areas earmarked for a Palestinian state, if it can one day be negotiated; not legalize any more illegal wildcat Israeli settlements; and, most important, insist that Israel transfer territory from Area C in the West Bank, as defined by the Oslo accords, to Areas B and A under more Palestinian control.
The United States and Saudi Arabia must also declare that the goal of the diplomatic process will be a two-state solution in the West Bank.
All of these provisions are meaningless. If Friedman and the Palestinians don’t know this, they are deluding themselves. If they do know (as they should) they are engaging in cynical manipulation of their readers (in Friedman’s case) and their constituency (in the PA’s case).
Israel: never missing an opportunity to break its promises
Whether Israel agrees to any or all of this is beside the point. Abba Eban used to famously say: the Arabs never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Of course it was bullshit, as most of the favorite quotes of Israeli leaders have been. But in reality, it is Israel that never misses an opportunity to break every agreement it’s ever made–when it’s convenient to do so.
Settlement freeze? Sure, for a few months. Until it restarts them. Transferring territory to the Palestinians? Israel currently doesn’t honor the territorial areas assigned to the PA. It invades them and arrests or murders Palestinian militants and civilians at will. Who will guarantee that this behavior will change and Israel will honor its commitments?
As for the goal of a two-state solution: as I’ve often said here, this is a long-dead option. There can be no such chimera. Friedman implicitly concedes this when he writes that territory for a Palestinian state should be “earmarked, if it can one day be negotiated.” It can’t. And maintaining such an illusion is damaging to the only real solution: a single state from the river to the sea.
I’ve mentioned everything above to reinforce the problematic nature of a normalization deal. In effect, what they’re normalizing is a status quo in which a repressive, cruel Saudi dictatorship aligns itself with a fascist, theocratic Israeli state. Israel gets a green light to continue its march toward Judeo-fascism, while MBS gets the international recognition he craves. Such legitimation flatters his ego and is priceless to him. Meanwhile, both countries will reinforce their respective regional interests, none of which are in the interest of the peoples of the region.
I wrote in The New Arab that such a deal is bad for US interests. Even if you leave aside the moral issue of aligning ourselves with one country which is a violent dictatorship and another which is on the road to becoming one–there is the issue of the mutual defense pact the Saudis are demanding. After Biden deliberately reduced US military involvement in the Middle East, he would tie us to defending a bloodthirsty regime which pursued its interests recklessly, heedless of all consequences. Its long-running war against Yemen proves this point.
The other Saudi demand is a nuclear deal which offers the Kingdom a nuclear reactor. Though they may swear up and down that it is for civilian use, that too is almost meaningless. We saw this with Israel’s nuclear program, which Israel said was for non-military use. Now it has over 200 nuclear warheads. Despite guarantees of US supervision of the Saudi program, Israel had the same provision. It managed to deceive the US inspectors and went nuclear. When the Kennedy administration had to decide how to approach this deception it gave Israel a pass. Giving the Saudis what they want adds yet another destabilizing element into the Middle East, which is already a powder keg of terror and internecine warfare.
The president appears to have adopted a troubling plan for gaining domestic political support for the deal. It dispatched Trump-sycophant Lindsey Graham to the ex-president’s lair in Mar-a-Lago in an attempt to entice him to say a few nice words about a normalization deal:
“I told President Trump, listen, this is the natural extension of the Abraham Accords and if we can do it, let’s do it. It doesn’t matter how it gets done, on whose watch it gets done. It’d be a good thing for the stability of the Middle East and our own national security and President Trump deserves his fair share of credit,” Graham said.
Graham added that he told Trump it’s “the highest sign of flattery” when a president replicates his predecessor’s policy, and said Trump appreciated the message.
They’ve even enlisted Jared Kushner, who has a $2-billion Saudi investment at stake:
Kushner’s private equity fund Affinity is backed by $2 billion from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund and just secured what is believed to be the first Saudi-sponsored investment in an Israeli company.
The arguments they’re whispering in his ear involve fawning flattery, the only language the narcissistic Trump understands.
The attempt to draw Trump into the process suggests a hint of desperation. Why would you need to turn to such an odious figure to advance such a deal? Because Biden is afraid this will become an issue he could be hammered with during the 2024 election campaign. If Trump is the candidate, he could pick apart the deal on the campaign trail. It wouldn’t even matter if he mischaracterized or lied about its provisions. Trump thrives on lies. The truth will never set him free. All he has to do is hammer the negatives home and his half of the electorate will eat it up.
Everytime I get my hopes up for peace in Palestine, they are dashed.
I doubt that Americans would support a deal with a dictator Saudi King or Prince who murders his own people. They would demand that Saudi Arabia become a Democracy first.
If Biden is reelected he could recognize Palestine on 1967 borders at the UN Security Council, and most of the world would support it, including Europe, China, and Russia. This would be the beginning of a long struggle with Israel and its supporters in the United States to make it actually happen on the ground. It would require UN boots on the ground to prevent Israel from doing whatever it wants militarily in the West Bank and Gaza.
This would give Palestine negotiating leverage with Israel to evolve into 1 State or 2, or as a Confederation, over time.
Obama could have done this, but it would have meant Hillary would lose the next election, which she did anyway to Trump. Now it is Biden’s turn, let’s see if he has the Courage to do it.
Doing nothing could be far worse, it could lead to a nuclear war, started by Israel trying to save itself from thousands of conventional missiles raining down on it.
Burst my bubble.
Biden will not recognize Palestine on 1967 borders at the UN Security Council, but will be “preserving the path to a negotiated two-state solution”, otherwise known as hostage negotiations.
“Today, we’re going to discuss some of the hard issues, that is upholding democratic values that lie at the heart of our partnership, including the checks and balances in our systems and preserving the path to a negotiated two-state solution, and ensuring that Iran never, never acquires a nuclear weapon,” Biden said.
World is still in danger of a Nuclear Holocaust started by Israel to save themselves from a conventional missile attack, and a future Nuclear Weaponized Middle East.
Bibi said the quiet part out loud today at the UN.
“In an ambiguous turn of phrase during his address, Netanyahu said that “above all, Iran must face a credible nuclear threat.” The prime minister’s office later issued a clarification, saying he meant to say ”credible military threat.”
Israel, which is widely believed to have nuclear weapons but has never publicly acknowledged them, has repeatedly said all options are on the table to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.”
Israel must be stopped, and only the United States can do that, they must recognize Palestine on 1967 borders at the UN Security Council.
Palestinians and Israeli Jews will be able to travel to, and do business, with KSA. What’s wrong with that?
@ Q: “Palestinians will be able to travel to & do business with KSA.” Says who? You? I should think the Israeli government, specifically the Shin Bet would have some say in whether Palestinians are permitted to travel to KSA. Most can’t even enter Israel to travel. Even those who are Israeli citizens are harrassed by Shin Bet agents. Often forbidden from leaving. So how do you guarantee that Palestinians will be able to travel anywhere, let alone to KSA?
As for what’s wrong with Israeli Jews traveling to KSA? Nothing, as long as Palestinians can enter Israel to themselves travel. As long as they can’t, there’s no reason Israelis should enjoy a privilege denied to Palestinians.
You have published the one comment which you’re entitled to publish in each post comment thread.
Israel and the UAE now have normal relations and Israeli Palestinians are free to travel from Israel to Dubai. Some Palestinians have even been arrested for drug traffic and murder in UAE.
So if Palestinians can now travel to UAE, why would Shin Bet prohibit or curtail they’re traveling KSA, especially to make haj?
BTW, have you any comment on the rapprochement between Iran and the United States?
“Until we can be sure that Prime Minister Netanyahu has a government he can control, we will not be able to jointly operate.”
Mohamed bin Zayed
@ John:
No, not normal. When a few of the UAE elite decide it’s in their interest to buy billions in Israeli spy gear to repress their fellow citizens, and that normalization would facilitate that process, while tens of thousands of everyday citizen despise and protest against it–that’s not normal relations. That’s a relationship of convenience, which isn’t normal. When it’s no longer convenient UAE will drop Israel like a hot potato.
So a few Palestinian criminals and drug dealers=free entry to Palestinians? Perhaps you’re smoking some of the drugs they’re peddling? You’re lying to yourself if you think there is “free travel” for Palestinians, whether in the West Bank, Israel or UAE. But you keep peddling what they’re shoveling at you. See how that goes.
What “rapprochement between the US and Iran?”
Borders – Sovereignty- UNSC Resolutions …
At this moment a case of Israeli war crimes in Gaza and West Bank at the ICC in The Hague … British prosecutor Karim Khan refuses to advance the investigation … however another case is pending at the highest Court of International Justice (ICJ) in The Hague .. would be problematic for world’s leading “democracies”.
So Trump-Kushner gave the Golan Heights to Israel … total madness and illegal … Donald got his very own illegal outpost. The Wot,d community stayed silent.
Referring to the telephone conversation held between His Majesty King Mohammed VI .,: and His Excellency President Donald Trump, on 10 December 2020, and to the historic : statements issued on the same day by them, and by His Excellency Prime Minister Benjamin : Netanyahu of the State of Israel, announcing the opening of a new era in the relations between the Kingdom of Morocco and the State of Israel.
… the United States gifted the Western Sahara to Morocco.
So it’s the turn of Joe Biden to gift the Palestinian Occupied Territories to Israel. And the World stayed silent. Trust of the global community in leadership of the U.S. ⁉️
Ready for the Rules Based Order (RBO) of the Empire.
The KSA will obtain the same Nuclear umbrella as Israel has from the U.S. … a blank cheque to attack Iran when either nation feels “threatened”. Demolish the Islamic State of Iran … and Israel is safe. Enduring Wars.
Competing with China’s BRI … announced @G20 Summit:
The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor concept of UAE-India gets support from US, Saudi Arabia and European powers like France, Germany and Italy.
Watch US pulling Armenia out of Russian influence.
Is the effort by Joe and Jake nothing short of a Hail Mary pass?
Silverstein’s analysis is right on. The U.S. has simply made the problem worse by effectively endorsing the ongoing physical, emotional and financial carnage inflicted on Palestinians with the “wink-wink” cover that the PA agreed to it. We could have and should have done better. You can’t pass your moral failures on to future generations, only the consequences thereof.
Recently both TASS and Tony Blinken referred to the 5 for 5 prisoner swap and indication the US would ease rhetoric at the IAEA Governors meet in Vienna. That did not pass.
IAEA inspection report escalates with US and E3 nations …
UK to bring UN sanctions on Iran into UK law
Nevertheless … the prisoner swap may be effected within days …
Wiring Iran’s unfrozen funds to Qatar to finish next week: Qatari FM
BTW Morocco is only allowing quake relief aid and support from close allies of the NWO Abraham Accords, started with search teams from the Jewish State of Israel followed by UK-Spain-UAE-Qatar. Definitely not France, nor Borrell and the EU. For an unknown reason, King Mohammed VI also passed on aid from the US. A large shipment of relief aid by aircraft from Germany was turned back.
Reactions, aid pour in for Morocco as earthquake’s death toll reaches 2500 | Africa News |
@ Oui: For a country to reject aid after a disaster because it does not want to appear unable to deal with it based on its own limited resources, is insane. Not to mention it kills the victims. I can understand national pride being a factor. BUt it rather smells of the ruling elites not wanting to appear helpless in the eyes of the populace.