Netanyahu, Trump and representatives of UAE and Bahrain bask in the celebration of signing the Abraham Accords
After the celebration of the White House signing of normalization accords among Israel, Bahrain and UAE, invoking Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton’s signing of Israeli-Palestinian peace accords in 1979 and 2000, euphoria is wearing off and a sober realization is setting in: they may not be all they’re cracked up to be. Of course, Trump raved about the Abraham Accords, explaining how much Jews and evangelicals will love them. Netanyahu, currently in a battle for his political life, needs every achievement he can muster for his career not to come crashing amidst corruptions charges, the world’s third-highest COVID19 case rate, and raging protests against his rule. They were naturally delighted with the result.
Pres. Jimmy Carter with Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat signing 1979 Camp David Accord
The UAE and Bahrain both have a complex set of interests revolving around their domination by Saudi Arabia and enmity for Iran. Their leaders care less what their own citizens think about normalization, than what their royal patrons in Riyadh do. That is only possible in the sort of autocratic regimes that populate the Gulf. But they would do well, remembering the Arab Spring, to give some thought to how their own populations feel. And there is almost universal opposition to the deal in the Arab world. A July poll by the pro-Israel think tank, WINEP, found the vast majority of Emiratis oppose normalization:
80%…disagree with this statement: “people who want to have business or sports contacts with Israelis should be allowed to do so.” Here, too, the popular majority differs from current official UAE policy.
In Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt, the percentage disapproving of normalization is even higher. A June poll of Egyptians found:
There is also very little popular support for further “normalization” with Israel. A mere 6% agree that “people who want to have business or sports contacts with Israelis should be allowed to do so.” By contrast, half the Egyptian public “strongly disagrees” with that assertion.
The Arab Opinion Poll of 28,000 respondents from 13 Arab countries found (full poll results here):
When asked whether they would “support or oppose diplomatic recognition of Israel by your country” only respondents in Sudan and Saudi Arabia came in at less than 80 percent for “oppose”, at 79 percent and 65 percent respectively.
Israel’s Strategic Affairs ministry compiled a survey of Arab attitudes on social media finding that over 90% of content had “negative” or “very negative” views of normalization. Only 5% views the deal favorably. 45% of posts found the Accords to be a betrayal of Palestinians and Arab solidarity:
27% lamented the country’s “interacting with Zionists,” 10% its “hypocrisy” and 5% saw the agreement as Abu Dhabi surrendering to American interests.”
The ministry, prone to finding conspiracies around the world against Israeli interests, claimed an organized campaign by the Arab world’s “anti-peace camp.” Exploiting the current popularity of social justice issues and the sensitivity to racism, the Israeli minister labelled this opposition as Arab “hate speech.”
Curiously, though over 90% of the social media content criticized normalization, the Israeli report found that this sentiment was spearheaded by the usual anti-Israel bogeymen:
“The main protagonists against normalization were found to be accounts associated with Hezbollah, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, alongside a series of Palestinian NGOs that promote delegitimization against Israel.”
Is she claiming that these groups control 90% of the social media content in the Arab world? Or is she just looking for a convenient scapegoat for Israelis to blame?
She further raised the alarm:
The hashtags “Normalization is treason” and “Bahrainis against normalization” together had a “potential exposure of over 100 million accounts,” the ministry said further. The use of these hashtags was a “coordinated campaign conducted to produce a semblance of widespread opposition in the Arab world to the agreements in an effort to deter more countries from embracing warmer ties with Israel.”
“Potential exposure” seems an incredibly vague term to use regarding social media. But even if this content was published, promoted and read by a few million users, it would indicate a significant sentiment against the agreement. However, claiming opposition is based on a “coordinated campaign” or that it is somehow inauthentic, without offering any evidence, indicates the emptiness of her claims.
She revealed plans for Israel to wage its own propaganda plan in the Arab world in favor of the deal:
…”We will work to promote a long-term positive mindset in Arabic that will present the benefits of peace, while challenging the narrative against it…The ministry recommended launching an online campaign “to change Israel’s perception, with a focus on the Arab world” that would “provide more balanced and reliable information, including within the context of legitimization regarding Israel.””
It is hard to see how an Arab world already prone to suspect Israeli motives will warm the idea of a hasbara offensive seeking to transform Israel into a warm and fuzzy friend. I suspect this announcement will be seen as the manipulative effort it is, and would have just the opposite effect.
Trump administration and Israeli officials have happily reeled off the names of the next Arab dominoes to fall into line behind the normalization juggernaut. Morocco is being courted with the promise the U.S. will recognize its occupation of the Western Sahara (though protests against the deal have roiled the streets); while Sudan is being squeezed by the U.S., which blandishes the prospect of its removal from terror lists. Despite the Jerusalem Post predicting that Sudan faced a deadline of agreeing by October 15th, no such approval has emerged from the military-civilian government which took power after toppling the dictator, Omar Bashir. The Sudanese military is much closer to the elites in the Gulf States, while the civilians members are closer to the voices of the Street, which oppose normalization.
The biggest domino is Saudi Arabia. Clearly, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is eager to join the normalization band-wagon. But he realizes that he cannot do so unless he can produce a groundswell of support amongst his fellow Arabs. So far, that hasn’t materialized. A deal that doesn’t include the Saudis is an empty shell. At this rate, even if the Saudis do join, it will not be the rousing statement of unity that Bin Salman would prefer.
If the Accords fall flat on their face, it will be yet another half-baked scheme devised by Trump’s wunderkind, son-in-law, Jared Kushner in collaboration with his Arab despot allies. But whatever happens, it is clear that the prevailing sentiment among the ruling class is to abandon Palestinians and glom onto Iran as an existential threat it can use to instill fear among the ruled and buttress social control.
The only real, lasting resolution of Israel’s conflict with the Arab world must offer justice for Palestinians and a comprehensive agreement with frontline states like Lebanon and Syria, which have yet to negotiate their territorial differences. Israel must return all lands conquered and occupied illegally since 1967. Only then can genuine normalization occur.
Silverstein has published Tikun Olam since 2003, It exposes the secrets of the Israeli national security state. He lives in Seattle, but his heart is in the east. He publishes regularly at Middle East Eye and Jacobin Magazine. His work has also appeared in Al Jazeera English, The Nation, Truthout and other outlets.
I see a geographical divide. Countries that border Iran and feel the most threatened, want normalization. Countries that are far away from Iran, like Morocco, Algeria and Egypt, don’t feel threatened by Iran, and oppose normalization.
@ Wunsch:
You see? What you see is quite limited. Claiming countries on Iran’s border want normalization contradicts the polls I quoted in the post. Did you even bother to read the post? Or did you simply ignore what was inconvenient to you? 13 Arab states, including ones bordering or near Iran, oppose normalization. Further, for a state to normalize does not offer it any protection against Iran. Do you think an Arab state which normalizes will get extra protection from Israel because it feels threatened by Iran (regardless of whether the threat is real or not)?
Right wing Israel can’t always get what they want, but they can try, they can try. Netanyahu has had success making Iran the existential enemy of Israel as a means of deflecting from the existential problems at home, Palestinian Occupation. All the while the one state “solution” became more of a reality. Business deals taking advantage of the Sunni/Shiite Arab Iran conflict followed more easily. The GW Bush US Iran War helped make Iran ascendant and the boogyman.We needed that fake businessman dealmaker Trump paving the way with his anti Iran posture/opposition to the Iran nuclear deal. War is business. I wondered how the “Arab Street” was doing in all of this. The undercurrent of anti-Israel groups working on ground level in Arab lands do keep these plans in check.
“The ministry, prone to finding conspiracies around the world against Israeli interests …”
Oh the irony.
Do you really think Arabs should not accept israel if it does not make peace with Syria?
If you think the PLO cannot represent the Palestinians, do you think Assad can represent Syrians?
The western world which practices human rights has relationship with israel but many of these countries has much lower standards. Pretending this is about human right and not religion is the oldest trick in the far left book.
@ Gabriel:
We leftists don’t engage in “trickery.” And I resent your claim. If you want to engage here you’d better drop the insults.
Watch yourself, my friend. Your Islamophobia is showing. Israel has made this conflict a religious holy war. Not the Palestinians and not any of the other Frontline states. Even the so-called Islamist fundamentalists like ISIS have not mounted serious challenges to Israel. This is conflict over power and resources. Religion is an instrument in the Israeli apartheid tool box designed to distract from the real issues.
[comment deleted: Islamophobic comments are not permitted here.]
Hi Richard,
I actually read the post quite well, including the poll data.
“According to the findings, respondents in Jordan, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt and Mauritania – who make up the largest bloc in terms of population – viewed Israel as the primary threat their country was facing.”
None of these States border Iran.
“Conversely, people from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq said that Iran was the greatest threat.”
All of whom do border Iran.
So how is there no geographic divide?
It’s spelled out in black and white.
@ Wunsch: You’re moving the goal posts. The original statement was that 90% of Arabs oppose normalization. Now you are changing the question to which Arabs feel Iran is more of a threat. That’s not the subject of my post and has nothing to do with what I wrote. Pay close attention to the post and don’t try to change the subject to one that is more advantageous to you.
Do not comment further in this thread.
Thoughtful Quid-quo-pro, not bullying …
Some MKs say Israel should have demanded Palestinian concessions to treat Erekat
normalization will never ever be, it’s all about religion and only religion. just as the haredis donot recognize the state the muslims will never recognize anything jew.
it may be the rich helping the rich but for the poor normal shlepper this means zip. it may help mossad and shabac have an ear closer to iran or have a branch of 8200 with less long distance effect to help hacking , but for you and me why would i want to visit a trump priced hotel room in the desert. isn’t there enuff sand near the david hotel in tel aviv.
it’s a trump/netanyahu mirage another foggy nobel prize dream sheer obama’s win jealousy no more no less, what a joke 112 weekly flights from here to there filled with what cargo not human cargo for sure, all when el al is down to its last shekel
so sad instead of taking care of local business we’re kissing and brownosing foreign asses
and LETS NOT FORGET THAT THE SMALL PRINT (WHERE THE DEVIL USUALLY LIVEs) IS STILL A SECRET. THE KNESSET MUST APPROVE THE DEALS WITH ONE CONDITION TO BE BLINDFOLDED AND IGNORANT OF WHAT IS THE QUID PRO QUO
we’re the suckers that will pay the price as usual not bibi for sure