UPDATE: Israel launched yet another attack on purported Iranian military positions inside Syria. At least nine people on the ground were killed. The attack came barely an hour after Pres. Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal.
Today, Donald Trump made the momentous decision not just to withdraw, but to vehemently denounce America’s greatest foreign policy achievement in the past decade. We are leaving the Iran nuclear deal. In doing so, we not only reveal our hatred of Iran, but our disdain for our own allies, with whom the previous administration negotiated this deal. This is a new low in U.S. foreign policy. It marks the full triumph of America’s most isolationist, Islamophobic and reactionary forces in determining our relations with the world.
The last time Trump determined we would remain in the JCPOA, the president was restrained by pragmatists like Rex Tillerson, H.R. McMaster and Jim Mattis. Today, two of them are gone, replaced by a lunatic former Congressman, Mike Pompeo, and a militant adherent of bizarre conspiracy theories, John Bolton. They hold the keys to the Trump kingdom. They promise to take our country to dark places we haven’t been before; or at least have not been in many decades.
Back to the period of the Cold War, when we had a single sworn enemy, Communism, and devoted all our resources to combating it. Back to a nuclear arms race in which we built ever greater weapons of mass destruction needed, or so we thought, to defend us; but which in fact destabilized the world and made it a far more dangerous place.
Today, we are closer than ever to massively destabilizing an already unstable region: the Middle East. Trump, in his speech, essentially declared war on Iran, without using those terms. He offered curses and insults to its government. He advocated for regime change, though again without using those explicit terms. Though it may be too early to tell for sure, the chances of a military attack on Iran by Israel and the U.S. just increased, perhaps exponentially.
Trump offered nothing in place of JCPOA. He claimed he was open to a new agreement, but offered no vision of how to achieve it; or what it would contain. He invited Iran to approach him when it had given up on JCPOA and was ready to talk about something different. But he added that if he were Iran, he wouldn’t do it. How’s that for cutting the legs out from under your own argument?
This approach is nonsensical since there still is a nuclear agreement, which the remaining five P5+1 members (now, I suppose, the P4+1) continue to adhere to. In fact, Federica Mogherini, the EU foreign minister delivered an impassioned rebuttal to Trump in which she reaffirmed its commitment to the deal. She appealed to Iran and its leaders to remain as well. What she did not do is say what specifically the European states were willing to do to stand behind the deal.
Trump, in fact, threatened European financial institutions and companies with punishment if they “advanced Iran’s nuclear ambitions.” One may assume that he defines any financial transactions with Iran as doing so. In that case, how will the EU respond to the U.S. levying such fines and sanctions against its businesses? Will it sit back and do nothing? Or will it respond robustly? Is it willing to announce sanctions of its own against our government? Will it punish us if we punish them?
The jury is out on this question. The EU generally is a pretty quiescent bunch unless an issue hits close to the European pocketbook. Is the relationship with Iran and the economic-political benefits it offers enough to offset the longstanding strong relations the Europeans have enjoyed with the U.S.? It’s an open and tough question to answer.
Let’s not forget that some of these same European banks are the very ones which finance the real estate empire of Donald Trump, Jared Kushner and others in their oligarch circles. They might want to consider they won’t always be running the show in the White House. There will come a time when they will return to their former businesses. And their former bankers may not be as keen on doing business with them if the government has punished them severely for doing business with Iran.
If the EU fails into live up to its end of the bargain and Iran perceives little ongoing benefit to the deal, it’s likely we will return to status quo ante: the situation before 2015. Iran would resume uranium enrichment, reopen shuttered nuclear facilities and proceed potentially toward producing nuclear weapons. That would leave us in a worse position than before JCPOA. We would find an Iran which had no faith in anyone in the west and a U.S.-Israel-Sunni alliance perhaps bent on a military attack or even regime change. If you find this far-fetched, go back and read John Bolton and Mike Pompeo’s statements on the issue. They are ardent believers in regime change. Their beliefs may’ve been theoretical until now. But they can now carry them out in practice.
That would be far worse than pre-2015, perhaps even catastrophic. Though Iran, Israel and the U.S. have already fought multiple wars in the region, this one would be like nothing they’d ever seen. Tens, if not hundreds of thousands could die. The outcome would guarantee neither side its objectives.
While Trump nattered endlessly about Iran’s alleged history of terrorism and intervention in affairs of neighboring states, he ignored our own record of attacks against sovereign states in the region like Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, etc. While he decries the possibility that Iran may get a nuclear weapon, he ignores the fact that both the U.S. and Israel are among the most powerful nuclear-armed states in the world. He ignores the U.S. role in supplying massive amounts of weapons to our allies which they use to slaughter their local enemies.
While the president railed against the alleged havoc Iran wrought, he ignored the havoc which his decision will do to the world economy. Oil prices are climbing above $70 per barrel, a level not seen since 1980. Such price spikes have enormous consequences for the world economy. The last time we had such a spike it was accompanied by economic turmoil throughout Asia. Such turmoil caused the fall of governments and deep unrest in many societies. Is the world willing to sacrifice its stability to satisfy the vanity and delusions of a severely unstable, erratic American president?
Among the many outright falsehoods Trump offered, one especially stood out: he trotted old the hoary old saw that Iran’s missiles are “targeting American cities.” This isn’t much different than the old Domino Effect, which Cold Warriors trotted out when they wanted to gin up anti-Communist hysteria.
First, while Iran has tested missiles which conceivably at some point in the future could carry a nuclear warhead, it has not pursued any new research on building the nuclear warhead which the missile might carry. That means that the missiles are nothing more than conventional weapons. Further, there is absolutely no proof Iran has ever targeted anyone’s cities with these missiles, let alone ours. While on the contrary, our Saudi allies routinely target their own missiles at Yemeni towns and cities and have killed 10,000 civilians there. And Israeli missiles routinely target Syrian sites.
Pres. Rouhani’s response to Trump was sharp and pointed. It offered little of the reassurance in Mogherini’s speech. He was angry. He blamed the U.S and said we have never honored any agreement with Iran. It seemed from his tone that he had given up on the U.S. ever again being a trusted interlocutor. While his anger may be understandable, Iranians should remember that Trump’s presidency is one of the most troubled in modern times. He is beset by scandal and looming prosecution. He faces a midterm election which could hand both Houses of Congress to the Democrats. In this event, not only will the majority Party stymie many of the president’s initiatives, it may proceed with impeachment proceedings against him depending on the results of the special counsel investigation.
In other words, Trump may be a temporary aberration. It would be premature to make global pronouncements about future relations with America based on a single political leader whose rule may be short-lived. I would urge Iran’s leaders not to make hasty decisions and to maintain patience. In fact, there is a likelihood that the Republicans will lose both Houses of Congress in 2018. That means that the Democrats will have an increased ability to frustrate Trump’s agenda. If the special counsel prepares an especially damning report on Trump’s misdeeds, the Democrats may introduce impeachment proceedings. Even if they don’t, it’s likely he will be severely impaired after 2018. He will be worse than the typical lame duck president. He will be a lame duck for whom both parties may wish to restrict his ability to function in his role.
While no one can predict who the next president will be, chances are it will be a Democrat at least as committed to the JCPOA as Obama was. If it’s Bernie Sanders or a similar progressive figure, it may be a president prepared to normalize relations with Iran and remove the sanctions regime entirely in return for Iranian guarantees regarding its role in the region. Why act precipitously, return to the path toward nuclearization and risk provoking even the Europeans who are sympathetic to Iran’s current situation?
On a related subject, the Guardian reports on a new element of Black Cube’s spying on behalf of the Trump administration. Israeli intelligence, apparently along with Black Cube itself, often engages in black bag jobs. In fact, the Mossad even did such break-ins here in the U.S. in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Apparently, a U.S.-based NGO working on behalf of the JCPOA agreement had its offices burgled:
In November 2017, the Washington offices of another prominent pro-JCPOA advocacy group were burgled. According to officials from the organisation, who did not want it to be named, it was a sophisticated break-in in which the whole building’s closed-circuit TV and alarms were disabled. The thieves went to offices at the back on the organisation’s suite and took only two computers used by senior officials, ignoring many other expensive electronics including a new computer, still in its box, which was lying close to the entrance.
“If these are operations that are sanctioned by someone in the White House to dig up possible dirt on the president’s enemies, this is Nixonian,” Kimball said.
As a friend wrote to me on Facebook: “the plumbers are back.” This time, they speak Hebrew! Remember the Watergate break-in started as a minor news story on the inside pages of the Washington Post. Stay tuned. This could get interesting.
“..we not only reveal our hatred of Iran, but our disdain for our own allies,”
Iranian ministers burn the American flag in their Parliament and shout, “Death to America!”
Who are the haters here?
That silly flag deserved it! ;-)\
‘That silly flag deserved it! ;-)\’
Gratifying as you may find it, that’s really not a useful remark.
It makes the evil emperor rub his hands together — but that’s not a good thing.
That is such a puerile trick Elena: Calling everyone who has a grievance against you, no matter how justified, a ‘hater’.
As in: Why do you hate the Palestinians so much, Elena? Why do you hate the Iranians so much, Elena?
Explain me your hatred, Elena. etc. etc.
@Elena: you’re like the Energizer bunny. You keep on trying in your own pathetic fashion.
If America had killed as many of your co-religionists as we have and overthrown your leaders and trained your intelligence apparatus to torture, you’d be shouting the same slogans.
‘Who are the haters here?’
…and Iran has so much to be grateful and appreciative of America for.
I predict that Iran will return to the negotiating table and make another deal with the United States.
The Iranian economy is in a tailspin and neither Rouhani nor Khameni’s IRGC (Praetorian Guard) ,want to be in the pilot’s seat when Iran’s economy crashes.
‘I predict that Iran will return to the negotiating table and make another deal with the United States…’
I think you’re a cynical and mendacious agent of darkness.
‘For it is evil things we shall be fighting…’
@Colin
“I think you’re a cynical and mendacious agent of darkness.”
‘For it is evil things we shall be fighting…’
‘Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. For if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you’–Nietzsche
@Elena: you’ve portrayed Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu perfectly!
‘Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. For if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you’–Nietzsche’
Sounds good, I guess. But I’m trying to see how this works out to make any point you might want to make. I mean, I’m certainly not fighting Iran. Is it Israel that is ‘the monster’?
Perhaps more the evil that Israel incarnates? I suppose that could make sense — paying attention to Israel certainly isn’t good for me. However, it’s improbable that’s what you mean. Help me out here.
@Elena: I’m about as interested in your predictions as I am in those of the Westboro Baptist Church. Keep ’em to yourself. Not worth a bucket of warm piss.
Rumors of Iran’s death are greatly exaggerated.
‘Rumors of Iran’s death are greatly exaggerated.’
So one hopes. I tend to be less optimistic than you. Sometimes, evil wins.
Elena you must be either naive or do not understand what negotiation means. If Trump’s USA doesn’t offer Iran anything it is ready to keep, what is there to negotiate? If USA would offer Iran for example a nuclear free Middle East (= disarming Israel’s WMD’s) Iran certainly would be interested to negotiate, but demanding Iran to disarm itself of traditional weapons is no option for Iran with neighbours like Saudi Arabia and Israel. Obviously you Israelis think that also others are like Palestinian leaders, ready to negotiate with Israel for decades when Israel offers nothing and makes constantly absurd new demands.
Iran has in the world the fifth highest total estimated value of natural resources. Iran has 10 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and 15 percent of its gas reserves. On the fields of research and engineering Iran has been rising fast. Israel is nowadays behind Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia with the volume of scientific research. 20 years ago Israel was the first, now it is Iran.
We begin to get closer the inevitable situation where the major powers of Eurasia are forced to begin to form a real military / financial / industrial alliance against the “Atlantic” side. What will Israel do when first Iran and then Turkey go under the protection of China and Russia? If somebody in USA’s and Israel’s regimes seriously believe that China, India, Japan, Korea and European nations want to see (=allow) Iranian assets to be destroyed and the Persian Gulf to be closed, they must have a very limited understanding of economical and military realities. US sanctions and closing out of the dollar “system” has day after day less effect when the opposite side has more means to circulate the US sanction pressure. Iran has already stopped using US dollars. Europe will be forced to create real counter measures when USA blackmails European companies doing business with ever increasing list of US sanction targets. All this makes USA politically and economically weaker.
War in Iran with infrastructure destroyed in famous Israeli/American style would mean 10 to 20 million new refugees heading towards Europe. Do you in Israel really believe that Europeans and their leaders do not understand that? Europe can not and will not tolerate new massive Völkerwanderungen caused by the wars organised by Israel/USA/fundamental Sunni Arabs.
‘While no one can predict who the next president will be, chances are it will be a Democrat at least as committed to the JCPOA as Obama was…’
That’s optimistic. Anyway, this whole thing — in particular, the breathtaking cynicism and open aggression displayed by Israel — really surpasses comment. One can only think of certain forbidden points of comparison — the run-up to 1939-45 for example.
From a recent comment I made …
Richard Silverstein has been one of the great sources on the covert war between Israel and Iran in the 21st century!
Thx!
@Oui: Thank YOU!
I don’t understand how Netanyahu figures he avoids war by attacking a sovereign country. Are the Israeli’s so spooked by Iran that they are up for such escalation and feel there will be no repercussions? I guess it’s been years of drumming it in to the public that Iran is to fear, not the Palestinian issue.
Trump is turning up the volume on American exceptionalism as if we can call the shots as oil prices rise.
Awpp…got a strike. Cast again to the same spot and this time slow the retrieve…
‘Israeli Military: Iran’s Quds Force Fires 20 Rockets From Syria at Golan Posts, Some Were Intercepted’
I can relate. This is like catching bass during the spawn. Just gotta get them pissed off enough.
One wonders. Will Israel give medals to the lucky Jews who get to die to make war possible? We just need one good hit…
It’s kind of morbidly amusing watching Iran try to deflect the inevitable. They think this warning salvo is actually going to discourage Israel. Nope…no way out, really. Israel needs her war and YOU are the lucky girl.
The one good thing about all this is that, the best efforts of the New York Times et al notwithstanding, Israel winds up very firmly identified with Donald Trump and the American Right.
She ceases to be a non-partisan good, and becomes a political football, something like immigration, or abortion.
It can be helpful to take the long view. So long as we avoid the ultimate catastrophe of an American invasion of Iran, this is good stuff. We’re making progress.
Quite the reverse, Mr Wright.
Trump has changed the conversation.
Only in extreme left “progressive” forums such as this blog do you hear the kvetching, howling and screaming about how horrible Israeli is. Even the Arab press is either silent or supportive of Israel’s moves. It is you who is out of touch. You’re even hearing Saudi and other Arab officials openly blaming the Palestinians stubbornness for the lack of a settlement. And they all abhor the mullahs of Iran.
Trump is not going to be removed from office, and even if he is, he’ll be replaced by Pence who is an equally avid supporter of Israel. And when Democrats return to power, they’ll still be supportive and will have learned the lessons of Obama’s disastrous foreign policy in the Middle East. I’m not hearing too many Democrats these days pining for the return to his policies of appeasement with the Iranians.
The Europeans are divided and spineless, and in the end will cave to US policy as well.
So keep your fantasy hopes alive for the ultimate reversal of Israel’s fortunes, if that floats your boat.
[comment deleted: read the comment rules. Comments must be directly related to the topic of the post. They must also contain an argument you take the trouble to advance along with supporting credible sources. None of that was true for your comment. A link is not a proper comment.]
@ DrS: This is not an “extreme left” forum. No more than you are a whiny, kvetchy, howling, screaming Kahanist. Or are you?
NOnsense. You mean the slavish, servile press of the Sunni world. As opposed to the press of the rest of the Arab and Muslim world, which rails against Israeli policy. Why would you leave out half the Muslim world? Would you talk about the human race and leave out all the women in it?
Oh, you mean the kleptocratic, brutal Saudi royals? Those “officials?” Why would anyone care what they think?
Who is “they?” Again, you’re including only the “good” Arabs you like. But omitting those inconvenient ones you despise.
Pence has none of the charisma or nuttiness of Trump. He will face a Congress which is controlled by Democrats. Certainly the House and possible the Senate as well. Pence will fare even worse than Trump has. He’ll pass no initiatives and will be stymied at every turn.
You’re clearly not a Democrat. So please don’t make the idiotic attempt to tell us that Democrats will be nice little poodles on Israel’s behalf when they return to power. That’s about as persuasive as telling us gold coins will rain from the sky tomorrow at 12 noon.
I cut short your statement because that was as far as I got. You are indeed not hearing many Democrats. You don’t know what they’re thinking or saying. So stop pretending you can channel them. You can’t.
You’ve violated a major comment rule. When you offer your opinion, you must support it with credible sources. I have no interest in hearing your opinions because they’re useless and uninformative. Try this again and you’ll be moderated.