We know roughly where we are now. It’s not a good place. Pres. Trump has thrown the Middle East into complete turmoil. A precarious status quo has prevailed since the JCPOA agreement was signed in 2015. While there were hostilities that broke out periodically with over 100 Israeli attacks inside Syria mostly on Hezbollah and Iranian positions, none of them seriously threatened to topple the precarious détente.
But now Trump has let loose the Furies and anything can happen. We saw that, only an hour after Trump rejected the nuclear deal, when Iran launched 20 surface-to-surface missiles from Syrian bases targeting Israeli military bases. The Iranian attack had been in revenge for an earlier Israeli attack which had killed 9 Iranian soldiers and an IRG commander. In retaliation, Israel launched a massive attack against every Iranian position it could find in Syria. 27 U.S.-supplied F-16s criss-crossed the country seeking their entrenched targets. Though Avigdor Lieberman said that all of “nearly all” of Iran’s infrastructure was wiped out, this is a ridiculous claim.
Remember the claims the IDF made before and during its invasions of Lebanon and Gaza? That it would send both places back to the Stone Age? Never happened. In fact, Hezbollah has double the number of missiles it had during the 2006 War. Hamas has been somewhat more restrained due to Israel’s illegal siege. But it too has wrought serious damage on Israel troops who last invaded the enclave in 2014.
In short, there is no hope whatsoever that Israel can end Iran’s presence in Syria. The former is there to stay. The question is whether the two states can develop a modus vivendi that tacitly accepts the presence and interest of the other. Bibi Netanyahu appears unwilling to do so. In fact, I would say that we are closer than we’ve ever been to an outright Israeli military assault on Iran itself.
In 2009, I joined with whistleblower Shamai Leibowitz, to try to expose Israel’s plot to normalize the concept of a military attack on Iran. Unfortunately, Obama and Holder determined to punish all such whistleblowers and Shamai went to prison for leaking classified transcripts of Israeli embassy conversations about Iran and related subjects. But our crusade against an Iran attack remains valid to this day. Perhaps even more so than in 2009.
It is unclear whether the U.S. itself would join such an Israeli military assault. Clearly, John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, the new tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum of Trump’s security apparatus, support such a prospect. Even more, they support regime change in Iran. They may believe that instituting punishing sanctions will do the trick of weakening an already battered economy and moderate political ruling class. But the only thing this will do is bring the hardliners to power. And they will maintain an even harsher, firmer grip on power than Pres. Rouhani’s pragmatic moderates. Perhaps this is something the DC dudes hope for: that when the world sees the Iranian hardliners bare their fangs and expose their true brutal nature, that the world will endorse draconian measures like a full-scale attack or even invasion to topple the regime.
What follows such an outcome? A return to a shah-like figure? Imposing the cult terrorist MeK, the darling of Israel’s Mossad and Trump’s Iranophobes? Where will you find any Iranian with any following who’d be willing to follow the Ayatollahs to power? Any such figure would require a foreign military occupation to bolster his rule. Does anyone recall the foreign expeditionary force mounted by anti-Communist western nations which attempted to stave off a Bolshevik victory in the Russian civil war. Remember how that ended?
Such outside interventions almost always end badly. You kill your enemy, only to find that 20 other enemies, younger and more able, arise to take his place. That happened in Lebanon when Israel assassination Abbas Mussawi and Hassan Nasrallah followed him. It happened in Gaza when Israel assassinated Sheikh Yassine and tried to murder Khaled Meshal. Scores of other talented leaders succeeded them. The U.S. toppled Saddam and look what followed. We also forced the Taliban from power and a new Pharaoh named Bin Laden arose to take his place. We never fully vanquished the Taliban, as they continue to menace the country. Not to mention that it morphed from a relatively contained mujahadeen movement in Afghanistan in the 1970s to a new environment in which there are multiple Islamist terror groups including al Qaeda, ISIS, and scores of affiliates around the Muslim and Arab world. All this because we had the hubris to believe that a simple invasion could end a threat.
Israel can never fully rid itself of Iran as a regional rival. It can try to use military force. But this outcome will fail, even if it has certain short-term successes (which is by no means guaranteed).
Another question is how will Russia respond? It has tied itself tightly to Assad’s regime and will maintain its stability at all costs. But so far, Russia has been willing to stand by as Israel attacks Iranian assets inside Syria. Will it continue to do so? Will it continue to withhold the S-300 anti-aircraft systems from the Iranians and Syrians, whose installation would render air attacks much more costly to the Israelis? And how would Russia react if the U.S. and Israel attacked, or even invaded Iran? This too is a wildcard. Just as wild as Trump himself. And this is where we come to the brink of not just regional war, but possibly world war, in the sense that many powers outside the region could possibly enter the conflict and transform it into a far more lethal one.
“In short, there is no hope whatsoever that Israel can end Iran’s presence in Syria.”
Israel may not be able to herself, but tight economic sanctions on Iran may do the trick.
Economic sanctions brought Iran to negotiate its nuclear program, economic sanctions will cause her to rethink her military presence in far away Syria.
BTW, Israel has not demanded Iran leave Syria, Israel has only made the modest demands that Iran stay away from Israel’s border and stop arming Hezbollah with sophisticated offensive weapons.
@ Elena:
Yes, and the moon may be made of green cheese. But it’s very likely not. Nor will sanctions achieve anything. Iranians will not blame their leaders for their misery. They will put blame squarely where it belongs. On the shoulders of people like you & Trump.
Spoken like a true neocon. Sanctions did nothing to bring Iran to the table. Nothing.
You know nothing about Iran. You don’t understand the country, the people, the policies. Why do you spout endlessly and ignorantly on a subject you know nothing about??
And the Palestinian people have only made the modest demand for their sovereignty and return of their lands. But somehow it doesn’t achieve the desired effect. And Iran has only made the modest demand that Israel adhere to international law and give Palestine its freedom. Somehow Israel doesn’t see those demands as modest. Nor does Iran see Israel’s demands as modest.
How about Israel leaving Syria, i.e. the Golan Heights, which it occupies contrary to International Law.
‘Iranians will not blame their leaders for their misery.”
Iranians took to the streets earlier this year protesting their government. Thousands were arrested.
Iran’s economic problems are many, in spite of the fact that she is an oil exporter. Iran’s short-sighted economic policies, like pegging the Ryal to the Euro, and not the Dollar, are causing her economy to falter.
The ‘Iran nuclear deal’ freed up billions and billions in cash already, but the average Iranian doesn’t see any of it. That’s why they protest, and that’s why Iran is beset by labor strikes.
Khameni’s IRGC (Praetorian Guard), hordes Dollars and siphons cash, which undermines the policies of the ‘reformers’.
Blaiming Israel and Trump and me for Iran’s problems is not an answer.
@Elena: That’s rich. Now you’re an Iran expert AND an international economist. Congratulations on those advanced degrees. Where did you earn them? Trump University??
First, Iranians protested about matters having little to do with sanctions. And those protests were initially ginned up by hardliners seeking to smear Rouhani. Curious how you left out that context.
Iran’s economic woes have everything to do with extrtnal external factors. Of course there is internal dysfunction created by hardliners themselves and corruption. But that has nothing to do with Rouhani and the people don’t blame him for that.
You don’t have a clue why Iranians protest so don’t even go there. Iran hasn’t seen 10% of the amount it was supposed to see relieved by removing sanctions. Not to mention that much of this is actually Iranian assets which were frozen by the U.S. Their own money!
The IRG no more hoard cash than the Israeli defsense ministry does. And they horde far more than the Iranian military does.
I do blame you, Israel and Trump for your hatred of Iran, deservedly so.
Yup. Hoards and siphons.
” Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has green-lighted the siphoning of $2.5 billion from a currency-reserve fund to boost military spending.
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-billions-from-raindy-day-fund-tapped-for-military/28998353.html
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm0383
@Elena: Israeli military spending is among the highest in the world per capita. Iran’s is about 1/10 of Israel’s. You gave it the old hasbara-college try, though!
Has Israel produced any proof that Iran fired any missiles? Given what is happening what could Iran possibly have to gain? And yet potentially much to lose.
A story produced by Israel makes sense.
‘…But now Trump has let loose the Furies and anything can happen. We saw that, only an hour after Trump rejected the nuclear deal, when Iran launched 20 surface-to-surface missiles from Syrian bases targeting Israeli military bases…’
Oh dear. This just goes to show how effective propaganda can be — it worked on you.
ACTUALLY, it was Israel that launched a raid — killing nine Iranians — immediately after the announcement.
That was obviously intended to provoke the barrage which you were loudly told about — and which has been successfully presented as if it wer an unprovoked attack — with the still larger Israeli response defined as ”retaliation.’
Aside from all the other aspects of it all, Israel’s Iran games have pushed Murderin’ Fridays right off the front page.
Yep. The weekly event is happening as scheduled. Israel’s still shooting down unarmed demonstrators that aren’t even in Israel in the first place. So far (and the dead always go up, thanks to those dum-dum bullets), the score is one dead, seven hundred wounded.
I doubt if we make those special bullets (or at any rate, I doubt if we would admit making them). Israel should bear in mind that if she runs low, she can’t ask us for an emergency airlift of them or anything. It won’t be like ‘cluster bombs for children’ in Lebanon ’06. No free refills.
‘…In short, there is no hope whatsoever that Israel can end Iran’s presence in Syria. The former is there to stay. The question is whether the two states can develop a modus vivendi that tacitly accepts the presence and interest of the other. Bibi Netanyahu appears unwilling to do so…’
I’m unconvinced Israel’s aggression towards Iran is inspired by Iran’s presence in Syria — or indeed by any rational consideration. Israel was conducting assassinations, sponsoring terrorist bombings, and so on in Iran long before the Syria Civil War broke out — and I imagine Israel’s aggression will continue long after the Syrian Civil War ends, too.
It’s my belief that Israel needs an enemy at the gates. Absent such a threat, she simply lacks the glue necessary for an authentic national identity. Even aside from the gentiles, the various Jewish groups in Israel share remarkably little. They won’t even go to the same schools. There has to be an external foe for ‘Israel’ to define herself against. This can be seen to have driven Israeli behavior for at least the last fifteen years — and perhaps the last seventy.
Jordan and Egypt have been suborned. Syria’s been reduced to blood-soaked anarchy. Lebanon is able to keep Israel at bay thanks to the Hezbollah porcupine. Iraq’s still evolving from Israel’s 2003 attempt at a remodel.
Israel needs an enemy she can wage war against. Iran!
It doesn’t really matter what Iran does. Pending the establishment of a friendly authoritarian regime, or alternatively, Iran’s descent into Syria-like anarchy, Israel is going to pursue war with her. Ideally, it’ll be war involving the US.
That would be best.
You really can see how Israel has cultivated a succession of enemies. Perhaps unconsciously, but she has cultivated them.
In the beginning, Egypt was the great Satan. Israel kept that fire alive with first 1956 and then 1967. Finally — and Israel was conspicuously reluctant about it — this was quenched with Camp David.
Within four years of Camp David, Israel was engaged in a full-blown invasion of Lebanon — an invasion undertaken on spectacularly specious grounds. A group opposed to the PLO had attempted to assassinate an Israeli ambassador. So…Israel had to destroy the PLO. At any rate, she had to destroy sumpin’.
That all kinda died down into a nasty hangover in the nineties. Iraq! Remember those letters to Clinton? The overwhelming need for an invasion of Iraq? People recall coming into the White House the morning after 9/11 and hearing the Neo-Cons already promoting an invasion of…Iraq. Why?
Israel’s latest project, of course. That at least notionally was settled by 2003. Of course, like most of Israel’s exercises in total military supremacy, she wound up worse than she was before — but hey. None of this is rational.
That brings us to Iran…and if history repeats itself, Israel won’t let go until Iran has been reduced to either anarchy or some form of American-sponsored dictatorship.
Anything at all can happen in Syria. This will continue.
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It’s also possible Israel may find out its eyes were bigger than its stomach
‘Israel looks to Palestinian Authority to Prevent Total Anarchy on Nakba Day.’
All that and Iran too. You know when you’re in the Chinese restaurant and you order one too many courses? Poor Israel…
Shouldn’t it be “It’s also possible Israel may find out her eyes were bigger than her stomach”?
You seem to have a need for consistency. Just remember: the road to hell is paved by little hobgoblins.
@ Colin: C’mon Colin, can’t take a joke???
@ Elisabeth: Touche!!
‘(CNN)Almost two-thirds of Americans — 63% — believe that the US should not withdraw from the agreement made with Iran to prevent the country from developing nuclear weapons. Only 29% believe the US should withdraw, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.’
Considering the extent and intensity of the propaganda, that’s an amazing figure. That we went ahead and withdrew anyway is also testimony to the power of the Israel lobby.
DonaldTrump has been boasting about how good the economy is and about the reduced unemployment. I actually believe that real unemployment is much higher than what the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. With the rise in gas and oil prices as a result of Trumps pullout from the Iran Nuclear Deal and any US supported Israeli invasion of Iran or a direct invasion by the US will be very harmful to our economy. Trump’s doing this at the behest of oil corporations, the military-industrial complex and Israel may very well promote anti-semitism. The same if Netanyahu invades Iran himself with the support of the US. It is so very important that there be a massive movement to stop Trump from waging yet another war, as this will be so disastrous for our country! We must not allow for the destruction that will take place and for young Americans to yet again be killed and maimed for the benefit of the oil corporations, the military-industrial complex and for Israel. It is utterly disgusting that our country allows Israel to decide what our policies are. We also must not allow Trump and big oil, the military-industrial complex and Israel to undermine our economy.