Mahmoud Abbas has pre-empted Bibi Netanyahu’s U.S. visit and May 24th address to a Joint Session of Congress with an eye-opening op-ed in today’s N.Y. Times. There is some interesting material in it. But the money quote is this:
Palestine’s admission to the United Nations would pave the way for the internationalization of the conflict as a legal matter, not only a political one. It would also pave the way for us to pursue claims against Israel at the United Nations, human rights treaty bodies and the International Court of Justice.
What he’s saying is that recognition of statehood by the UN would allow Palestine and its world supporters to ratchet up pressure on Israel considerably. This might include imposing sanctions on Israel for continuing an illegal Occupation of a sovereign state’s territory. This could go a very long way toward strengthening the BDS movement as well. It might include prosecution of war crimes cases against IDF officers and Israeli leaders as hinted in the Goldstone Report. The sky’s the limit.
This in turn might place pressure on Israel’s leaders to be more flexible in the positions they adopt in peace talks. When faced with a choice of recognizing a Palestinian state and withdrawing to 1967 borders, this might seem more palatable than spending a few years awaiting trial at the Hague. Israel’s generals and leaders, not particularly known for their selflessness, would likely prefer self-preservation to standing on principle and refusing a peace deal if it meant they might spend some of the best years of their lives in a prison cell.
The reverse may be true as well, as some Palestinian militant leaders might find it far more convenient to soften their militancy and political demands rather than being called to the Hague to explain their own attacks on Israeli civilians.
All power to the new Palestinian State! Ahem.
That said, I doubt that the protections purported to accrue to “protected persons” by the Fourth Geneva Convention depend on whether or not the territory is part of a recognized state. The convention’s application to West Bank has long been recognized internationally.
However, the new state can acceded to all the conventions: against genocide, torture, rights of women, against use of various weapons of war, law of sea (what about those oil and gas drillings off Gaza’s shore?), etc. A long list.
And then instead of having to wait for Jordan or Egypt to act FOR Palestine, it can act for itself. A lucky thing, because other countries have their arms twisted by Uncle Sam.
So, all in all, a good thing. for Palestinians.
And good for Israel? Well, if the territory claimed is the WB&G territory, it tends to eliminate whatever claim Palestinians might have to NATIONAL OWNERSHIP of part or all of pre-1967 Israel. That cannot be ALL bad for Israel.
And two sovereign states should be able to make a fair exchange of territory, say Latrun plus a corridor to the Wailing Wall in exchange for a 4-lane highway from Gaza to West Bank.
I doubt that the protections purported to accrue to “protected persons” by the Fourth Geneva Convention depend on whether or not the territory is part of a recognized state.
They don’t, but the victims have to be the competent government officials of a recognized state in order to have locus standi to pursue legal claims in the ICJ or ICC. Otherwise, there has to be a Security Council referral of the situation to the ICC or a request for an Advisory Opinion from the ICJ submitted by one of the major UN organs.
“The reverse may be true as well, as some Palestinian militant leaders might find it far more convenient to soften their militancy and political demands rather than being called to the Hague to explain their own attacks on Israeli civilians.”
Israel, supported by Washington, can make any Palestinian move backfire. That goes almost without saying.
But I think that Palestinian leaders have had just about enough of “softening” and getting nothing in return for it. Israel got away with a lot of terrorism before it declared statehood. If Palestinian militants went before the court at the Hague, they might just draw attention to that fact. And then we would have our long-postponed debate on what constitutes “self-defense” in the I-P context.
There has not been anything like the current changes in the dynamics of this conflict since the early 1990s and the following months are going to be extremely interesting.
The sky really could be the limit if it passes and I sure hope it does!
a change in the dynamic that halts further Israeli usurpation of West Bank territory and starts the reversal of that is indeed welcome, but it won’t bring the establishment of an actual, functional state any closer.
the Palestinians are going to have to deal directly to accomplish that.
No, I think not. Israel will have to accept the existence of that state first. Until then, the rest of the world will do so & Palestine will exist whether Israel wishes or not.
Oh Richard, really.
Palestine, like the Coney Island of the mind, will exist only in illusory form.
The Palestinian state would have existed look ago, alongside Israel, if the Palestinians hadn’t rejected that arrangement and decided to fight it instead.
Rejection and war have consequences in the real world.
Nice for a non-Palestinian who’s talkin’ out his derriere to speak this way. Only problem? You’ll have a few million Palestinians & a few dozen countries in the world who won’t see Palestine as a dream, but as a reality. There was a time when the notion of a state of Israel was but a dream? Remember yr Herzl? Guess what? Things change. Dreams become reality. As I said, get used to it. Train’s a gonna come as the song lyrics say.
woulda coulda shoulda. All vapors & dreams. All I’m interested in is now. And I know what’s likely to happen in Sept. People get ready there’s a train a comin’…
INdeed they do. For Israel, it involves rejection of Palestine & perpetrual war with its frontline neighbors & tens of thousands of dead over the decades.
Richard, that millions of Palestinians share in the dream and see it as a reality is good and proper and nothing that elicits any disapproval from me.
It’s a good dream, and someday soon, I hope a reality.
But it’s still gonna be a dream until Israel is convinced that Palestine won’t be a neighbor working hostilely and actively against Israel.
The General Assembly has little ability to change that.
—— For Israel, it involves rejection of Palestine & perpetrual war with its frontline neighbors & tens of thousands of dead over the decades.—-
those wars are pretty well over Richard, and the neighbors lost rather decisively as anyone (such as yourself) who notes that the neighbors no longer hold the Golan, or had to make peace to get return of the Sinai has seen.
War against Israel hasn’t succeeded and isn’t going to succeed any time soon. If Hamas and the other Palestinian rejectionists are willing to exchange their violence for less than what they see as their due, are willing to accept a Palestine that doesn’t initially attempt to militarize, then maybe things change quickly.
A Palestine that gives up violence is the one that the Israelis can’t block. As long as Hamas can’t get itself to commit to nonviolence, they keep creeps like Netanyahu and Lieberman in power.
They will it, & it is no dream…come September. Then you’ll see reality. Regardless of what Israel wants.
I find yr smugness offensive. Tell the Lebanese & Gazas who lost 2,000 dead civilians that wars with frontline states are a thing of the past. And lest you forget, Israel can win every war until the one it doesn’t. Then you know what will be the result.
Yes, blame Israeli ultra-nationalism on the Palestinians just like you blame everything else on them. I find this annoying, tedious & far too predictable.
Richard there’s nothing smug about my saying it and if you take offense, that’s your problem.
the train’s not going anywhere as long as the Palestinians aren’t making the tough choice and giving up the gun and the bomb.
I find you smug & it’s not just my problem since if I have a problem w. you, yr tone & attitude, it’s yr problem as well.
Don’t be surprised if you find comments of yours that tick me off are not published. When I get tired of people & their attitude that tends to happen.
SPEAKING OF SMUG!! I hope that train runs over you.
No more likely it will run over anyone standing in the way of Palestinian statehood.
“The reverse may be true as well, as some Palestinian militant leaders might find it far more convenient to soften their militancy and political demands rather than being called to the Hague to explain their own attacks on Israeli civilians.”
Obviously, the threat of individual criminal responsibility probably would have a very beneficial “civilizing” influence. None of us require individual immunity from criminal prosecution in order to lead normal lives. It’s absurd when government officials, on either side of the conflict, claim that they require immunity from prosecution for war crimes and crimes against humanity in order to conduct their routine business or carry-on political negotiations.
There’s not a damn thing smug about my saying that the wars were won by the side that has a enormous advantage in military equipment.
It’s just a fact.
There’s nothing there to offend you. So you go figure why mentioning it bothers you. There wasn’t any intent to bother you and there’s no more reason why it should be nettlesome than if I mentioned that the Israelis are never going to reach parity of numbers with the Arabs.
Just facts.
very, very few people get a call to come to the Hague, and most of those people simply don’t come and don’t answer, BTW.
——“For the Palestinians, efforts to delegitimize Israel will end in failure. Symbolic actions to isolate Israel at the United Nations in September won’t create an independent state. Palestinian leaders will not achieve peace or prosperity if Hamas insists on a path of terror and rejection. And Palestinians will never realize their independence by denying the right of Israel to exist.”—–
POTUS
couldn’t have said it better myself.
He didn’t say it very well himself. What a dreary speech. Irrelevant in large part to the current reality.
I kinda think that Obama has more sway over what’s reality than you or I, Richard.
When he stands up and says that the UN thing isn’t going anywhere and that there’s no alternative to a negotiated deal, that’s then the reality and the train ain’t leaving the station except on the track he’s laid out.
The UN thing was never more than a tactic to pressure the Israelis and the pressure is significant, but not enough to get anywhere if the Palestinians can’t get Hamas’ positions altered first.
Renunciation of terror and recognition of Israel’s right to exist are conditions for any deal and that’s not going to change any time soon…without regard to whether you or I like that.
Presidential history says you’re wrong: Nixon, Bush, Reagan, etc. How in touch w. reality were THEY??
Dead wrong. The U.S. is rapidly becoming less & less decisive in the world at large in terms of its sway & power. And the farther from reality its positions are, the more pronounced our decline will be. George Bush was profoundly out of touch with international reality. As a result, U.S. influence took a nose dive. That will continue given Obama’s position regarding the IP conflict. But I am confident that he is a smart enough man that once things deteriorate to the place that they will, he will come to his senses & realize he has no other choice but to hop aboard. Otherwise he & the U.S. risks becoming a laughingstock as Israel & Bibi already are.
You’re substituting yr own poorly informed opinion for reality. You don’t know what the Palestinians thought or intended & Abbas’ NYT op ed contradicts you. This campaign is dead serious. And discount it at yr peril.
Sorry, but Israel’s positions are so disdained by the rest of the world that no one really cares except Obama what Israel’s conditions are. Eventually, the EU will break w. the U.S., recoginze Palestine, & ignore the conditions.
Palestinians aren’t coming to the negotiating table anytime soon. Time is not on Israel’s side no matter how many settlements they build. They’ll all have to be dismantled in the end & the dislocation to the settlers will be all the more profound the more are forced to return to Israel.
If I were a Palestinian leader my precondition would be that ISRAEL renounce violence & recognize 1967 borders for the Palestinian state.
very, very few people get a call to come to the Hague,
Only one person, Bashir of Sudan, has avoided arrest so far. In the long run, he is not likely to be any more successful at avoiding prosecution than Milosevic or Karadzic.
There are already Muslim states which have warned Bashir that he does not enjoy immunity on their territories, e.g. Jordan dissents from Arab position on ICC warrant for Sudan’s Bashir
Not every nation recognizes the Court or has obligations that were incurred by signing on to the Rome Statute.
Those nations include the US, China and Israel.
Six comments today, my man. One more than your max.
Not every nation recognizes the Court or has obligations that were incurred by signing on to the Rome Statute.
*The United States and China obviously do recognize the court. Both countries have voted for Security Council resolutions which referred situations to the ICC Prosecutor.
*The numerical majority of the world’s states are members of the ICC.
*The ICC only exercises jurisdiction that complements the jurisdiction of the national courts of its member states. The ICC has no police force and relies on member states to enforce arrests.
*The United States has extradition treaties with nearly all of the member states of the ICC.
*The Article 98 agreements that the US has with other countries apply to US citizens and officials. They do not prohibit extradition of Israelis for trials in the national courts of other countries.
While I am not oblivious to issues of international law myself, this is impressive and I am glad to see this response here!