Consider this reverse scenario: four separate planes carrying hundreds of IDF soldiers crash in a single year all due to mysterious circumstances not traceable to mechanical or human failure. Israeli nuclear scientists die in bombings and under other violent circumstances. Retired Israeli generals and a deputy defense minister are kidnapped and spirited to Teheran. Mysterious explosions at Israeli missile bases leave scores dead. And a mysterious computer worm leaves the Dimona nuclear reactor virtually incapacitated. Whenever asked about any of these incidents Iranian politicians and military officers smile knowingly while Iranian media are filled with stories trumpeting the derring-do of its intelligence services. Finally, various Iranian generals, intelligence directors and political leaders publicly call for regime change in Israel, a full-fledged assault on Israel to force it to renounce its nuclear program, end the Occupation and topple the current government.
Put the shoe on the other foot and think how Israel would react if it came under the type of attack to which Israel is subjecting Iran. Of course, Israel would react with full scale war. It would warn Iran that the next such incident would invoke full-fledged hostilities. And it would be true to its word. Now compare this with how Iran has reacted to the same types of provocations. Iran has not declared war on Israel. It hasn’t demanded a Security Council session to denounce Israeli aggression. Iran is keeping its cool relatively well considering what it’s facing. Much better than Israel would under similar circumstances.
On a similar subject, a recently released Wikileaks cable reveals that Mossad chief Meir Dagan met with Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns in August, 2007. The unbelievably self-serving nonsense that emerged from Israel’s chief intelligence official is astounding. Among other things, he urged the U.S. to join together with Israel on a plan for regime change:
Turning to Iran, Dagan observed that it is in a transition period. There is debate among the leadership between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad and their respective supporters. Instability in Iran is driven by inflation and tension among ethnic minorities. This, Dagan said, presents unique opportunities, and Israelis and Americans might see a change in Iran in their lifetimes. As for Iraq, it may end up a weak, federal state…
Dagan said that more should be done to foment regime change in Iran, possibly with the support of student democracy movements, and ethnic groups (e.g., Azeris, Kurds, Baluchs) opposed to the ruling regime…Iran’s minorities are “raising their heads, and are
tempted to resort to violence.”
Dagan urged more attention on regime change, asserting that more could be done to develop the identities of ethnic minorities in Iran. He said he was sure that Israel and the U.S. could “change the ruling regime in Iran, and its attitude towards backing terror regimes.” He added, “We could also get them to delay their nuclear project. Iran could become a normal state.”
By which Dagan clearly means a state that is obedient to Israeli and U.S. interests.
Clearly, there is coöperation and coördination between the U.S. and Israel regarding covert ops/destabilization efforts against Iran as this passage of the cable indicates:
Covert Measures: Dagan and the Under Secretary agreed not to discuss this approach in the larger group setting.
Given all of the information quoted above it seems entirely credible, even certain that the Mossad, with the collaboration of internal dissident forces like Jundallah and Mujuhadeen e-Khalq, have been responsible for the series of bombings, assassinations and attempts against the lives of political leaders and nuclear scientists within Iran. The grand plan of the Mossad seems to be to combine paralyzing economic sanctions which provoke instability and unrest, with sabotage and political fragmentation to weaken the regime and eventually topple it.
The language of the cable seems to indicate that the U.S. isn’t quite on board with the regime change aspect of Israel’s plan. But certainly Dagan is quite content that existing policy and a few energetic shoves of the right direction will bring an end to the Ayatollah regime and replace it with one that is “normal” (whatever that means). One wonders what might have to be done to create an Israel that its neighbors and the rest of the world might view as “normal.”
The unfortunate truth for Dagan is that at least so far, his grand scheme has come up short. While Iran is under increasing economic distress as evidenced by yesterday’s quadrupling of the price of gasoline and announcement that other critical subsidies for bread and other necessities would be lessened or phased out, Iran remains a coherent, though troubled state. While the message doesn’t seem to have been heard in Tel Aviv, the ability of the regime to withstand the discontent following the June election fiasco indicated to any reasonable observer that this was not a political system that would go easily or willingly. It will take a lot more to topple the mullahs than a couple of bombings and a sabotaged nuclear program.
To put it even more directly, Israeli policy regarding Iran is founded on completely unrealistic, even deluded premises. As I recently heard former CIA officer Ray McGovern say about U.S. views on Iran’s nuclear program, Israel’s approach to Iran is faith-based rather than evidence-based. And faith-based policy or intelligence is the absolute worst kind. You can convince yourself of virtually anything if your analysis is not based on rock-solid evidence and reality, as Israel has done. Faith-based analysis got us into Iraq and to an extent fueled Obama’s foray into Afghanistan. Faith-based intelligence policy is hunting down Taliban militants in Pakistan with CIA drones. None of this will bring the types of changes the U.S. would like to see in the region. Just as none of the principles Dagan enunciates above will bring the type of result he wishes (a new Iranian regime).
John Yorke says
‘Consider this reverse scenario’…. and some scenarios might be considered well overdue for reversal. But of what kind? And how to do it?
It would appear from the above that the Israeli authorities have been digging quite a considerable hole for themselves, adding more depth to it as each day passes. In fact, almost everyone involved in this confrontation has, over the years, been contributing, in their own fashion, to the overall extent of the excavation. None of them, it seems, has given much thought to a means of exit or ascension.
Suffice it to say, it is probably no longer within their power to do so, the options open to them being so very few in number.
1. They can carry on much as they have been doing.
The expectations for a peaceful outcome cannot then be viewed as all that great.
2. They can get together to hammer out some compromise agreement.
Past results here would indicate a short-lived and uneasy level of abstinence from the conflict, leading, more often than not, to a worsening of the situation.
3. They can place the entire business in the hands of mediators.
It would take a very brave and very patient bunch of mediators to settle so longstanding an issue. Even then, the parties concerned might not agree on any substantive closure of the matter.
4. Each side can come to realise the error of their ways and the futility of further contention. And pigs might do that gravity-defying thing with which they are sometimes associated.
Well, as I’ve always maintained, the solution here is to let the problem solve itself. Saying that, I don’t mean both groups should have to fight it out to the death. Quite the opposite in fact. Make a few basic changes to the existing set-up and they would soon find themselves vying with each other to eradicate whatever aggressive instincts they possess; victory in this case would be determined largely by how much each contender could demonstrate their peaceful intentions, not their proficiency with the weaponry of war.
No more worms, no more invasions, no more intifadas; even the harsh word might well be stricken from the normal interplay between these communities. The region could easily become the most peaceful place on Earth.
Now wouldn’t we all agree on that being a much better arrangement than the one presently before us?
Oswald Pohl says
All progressives should support a nuclear armed Iran. If Iran had nuclear arms, they would have deterred the ill advised US adventurism in Iraq and Afghanistan. They could also impose a peace agreement upon Israel, which our president cannot due to domestic considerations
After all, it’s worked so well in North Korea and Pakistan.
Iran doesn’t want nuclear arms. What is the use in building a 20-40 year old outdated projectile and only one? What delivery system would they use?
The devil is in the details or in the lack of yours…
you live in a country at which someone is innocent until proven guilty, beyond reasonable doubt.
the reason the Iranian didn’t declare war, and didn’t ask for the security council to deal with the “mossad” attacks on Iranian soil is very simple. they have no evidence linking the mossad or any other organization to the attacks, when they did, in a violation of international law they kidnapped a plane and took their target out of it.
you missed something very important in the interview of Ronen Begrman you provided, you missed an ex Israeli general says that the American took the lead. of course you would claim that he was trying to deflect the blame to someone else, but then i would ask why do you believe one Israeli over another ? the answer is rather simple, this Israeli supported your claims (taken from Arabian nights or a grim brother book)
in short Richard, you are as speculative as debka file.
Richard Silverstein says
Are you clairvoyant? Are you reading the Iranians’ minds? Do you know something we don’t? Of course you don’t. You’re merely substituting yr own warped views for any semblance of reasonableness & presuming that you know what you can’t possibly.
If you’d like to babble & meander at least do so giving yr readers a chance to have a vague understanding of what you’re babbling about. As it is, you’re making no sense to anyone & no one has any idea what you’re talking about.
First, you’re flat out wrong. But even more importantly Debka is almost always wrong. When I publish a post using my Israeli sources I’m invariably right as will be proven in time in this matter as well. If Debka had any history of getting any major story right, you might have a leg to stand on. As it is you don’t.
Richard, Even a broken clock shows the the correct answer twice a day.
You my friend are a broken clock, show me the proof that the mossad is actually behind anything you said he was.
Richard Silverstein says
I was just thinking the same thing about Debka. Like a running clock, my scoops fr my Israeli-based sources have proven correct virtually every time. The evidence about Asgari being in Ayalon comes fr. that same Israeli source who was also right about revealing Barak couldn’t travel to Europe because of an outstanding arrest warrant. I’ll take my source over yr maunderings any day of the wk.
If you don’t like what I report there’s always Debka for you to fall back on…Why don’t you go back there where you came from. I understand they have a terrific flair for fiction which you would appear to enjoy.
Richard, anyone can hide behind “sources”
my sources told me that you actually get paid by the CIA.
so what ? name your source and we will see how credible he his.
and i assume based on your previous publications that you are not the only one reading your email, FBI, NSA and others are doing that to.
as for credible sources, there was a report today in an Iranian news paper about a new Irani weapon, great technological achievement that directly reflects on the readiness of the iranian armed forces.
please check it out.
Richard Silverstein says
Your sources at Debka you mean? As for the claim, can’t you come up w. anything more persuasive? I don’t support U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. So why would the CIA support my work?
And actually this is one of the times in the day that Debka or whoever YOUR source is, IS right. I AM paid: about $2,000/yr. from my readers. And I’m worth every penny of it. As for other sources of payment, apparently you haven’t been reading my press releases–or at least those sent out on my behalf by my detractors. I’m being paid Saudi reals & lots of ’em according to one of those.
Now you’re being a boor and an idiot. You know how this works. It’s called a confidential source for a reason. In the U.S. this source undoubtedly could reveal him or herself. But in Israel he or she would lose jobs, be threatened w. Shabak interrogation, & other such nastiness. So I’m afraid I’ll have to demur on that.
You’re implying that my source is as much a threat to U.S. security as Islamist terrorist whose communications the NSA has been intercepting?? On what basis do you make such a determination? And if the “others” are security agencies of foreign nations (now which one might that be?) then they’re violating U.S. law which wouldn’t at all surprise me.
You don’t even know what you’re linking to or saying. First, you’ve linked not to an Iranian newspaper, but to a pro-Fatah Palestinian news agency. Fatah, of course, has no great love for Iran & so would love to publish material denigrating Iran. Further, the article itself makes reference to no Iranian newspaper reporting the story, but rather vaguely alludes to “western intelilgence agencies” which are spreading the story of an Iranian superweapon, a war plane that takes off from under water. This strikes me as somewhat akin to the story of the Loch Ness monster or Abodminable Snowman. In other words, I’ll believe it when I see it. And you haven’t shown it.
But I do encourage my readers to visit this site & watch the video of the plane shooting forth from the ocean with militant shouts of “Allahu Akbar” on the sound track. It’s a real hoot!
You’ve really got to tell us where you got this link from? Debka? Yr friends working for a certain intelligence netherworld “Institution” (ha-mayvin yavin sorry for the bilingual inside joke)?
Except Richard is someone who has fine reputational capital and integrity, never toeing an agenda, but rather seeking social justice and amends to make the world a better place while IlanP looks like nothing short of a hasbarist.
BTW, FPNP.NET = IP Address:
126.96.36.199 (ping traceroute nslookup)
IP Location: Israel
Who is writing that garbage for you? The Mujahedin-e Khalq who are as Iranian as Avigdor Lieberman (and of the same mindset/IQ)?
Richard Silverstein says
My Israeli Arabic-speaking source tells me that this site is pro-Fatah & Palestinian, which explains the Israeli IP. It isn’t Iranian or MKO affiliated at all as Ilan appeared to claim. But one could certainly argue that the interests of Israel, Fatah and MKO converge on issues like this.
Mr. PersianAdvocate, now this is very interesting
because when I ping http://www.fpnp.net i am getting 188.8.131.52
i am getting the same with nslookup
and that address actually is located in Denver USA.
the domain is hosted in Denver as any whois query can show you.
Richard Silverstein says
As PA told you, learn a few things about Domain lookups. You can register your domain with a service which hides the personal/private site registration info. The service is based in Denver, not the actual IP or original website.
Ilan, that is a “WHOIS” protector, intended to keep the information I just got from being “leaked”. You’re pointing us to a gateway, a domain name server.
Anyone can look up the site’s information prior to them obtaining the Denver, Colorado company’s domain name protection services.
*rings the Freedom Bell with your head*
Here is the red herring Ilan is pointing us to: NAME.COM
Protected Domain Services – Customer ID: NCR-556598
125 Rampart Way
Email Address: firstname.lastname@example.org
The site was created in 2006, far before they obtained their services. Did the Uranium get to your brains or something?
You miss the point Mr. Persian Advocate.
I know that this domain was registered via a domain proxy.
the point is you claimed the site is in Israel, and you were caught here with both hands in the cookie jar.
don’t shake your head sideways the noise your lonely IQ makes, is unbearable.
Like I said, the historical IP information is stored throughout the Internet and publicly available.
These cookies are delicious 🙂
Just to force that inhumane Bitch Golda Meir to shake in her grave, I’ll show you this site which apparently calls Israel Palestine: http://www.pageinsider.com/fpnp.net
Any idiot can figure out the “green movement” sites are all based out of Germany where the Mujahedin-e Khalq has HQ’d as well. 140+ million Iranians know too the satellite show pundits are propagandizing. You see, we have faced this before twice. Far before any of the current policy makers could even walk or retain their gurgle and dribble without a parent’s care.
Ilan, ambiguity = stupid is as stupid does. Life aint like a box of chocolates if you read the f’ing map/key they always provide you, Forrest.
This is all assuming that mossad doesn’t see any action that results in the death of muslims as a success.
Seriously though, the question is whether these attacks can delay iran for years. If so, it makes a lot of sense – israel needs iran to stay the way it is – frightening but nuclearly harmless.
Regardless, it’s important to keep in mind that regime change in iran is a GOOD thing. Just not the kind of change dagan has in mind.
I disagree. Regime change forced or instigated by outsiders is never a GOOD THING, no matter how bad you think the regime might be. That’s a lesson Israel and Iran both have to learn. Iran openly fought a war with Israel through its funding of proxies Hamas and Hezbollah — funding it brags about, and certainly does not hide. But the “proxy war” has cooled. Israel’s concrete steps toward regime change in Iran have not.
While it is true that Iran has violated its obligations under the nonproliferation treaty, there is only marginal evidence to suggest those violations currently rise to the level that demands the intense pressure put on Iran by the West. But it would really help, I think, if Iran would obey the letter and the spirit of the treaty it signed.
Editor Steve, what publication do you write for because you are very ill educated when it comes to international law it seems.
Please review the latest report at IAEA.org which gives Iran a clean bill of health. THE SANCTIONS ARE EXTRA-LEGAL AND ENJOY NOT A SCINTILLA OF SUPPORTING EVIDENCE.
*rings a bell using your head*
Ah, yes, those scintillas….
In the past year ALONE, Iran has admitted to building a new processing facility it had not disclosed to IAEA — 12 hours before the UN Security Council was to announce its location.
At least eight times in the past two years, Iran has moved nuclear material without the required 48- to 72-hour advance notice to IAEA.
Two months ago, IAEA revealed that Iran had vastly overstated the amount of piping in its centrifuge system. IAEA needs this to be very accurate, because some processed material gets trapped in the pipes more-or-less permanently. If the real pipe lengths are shorter, the amount of processed material at the final output will be greater. Misstating the pipe length would have allowed Iran to harvest material that the IAEA would not know about.
I realize the rules of this blog are to assume the worst of Israel’s intentions and to not require airtight proof before blaming Israel for all sins… and I don’t actually disagree with that. Smoking guns are enough.
But why isn’t Iran held to the same standard? Or even close?
It is clear that Iran has violated the terms of the NPT it agreed to uphold. Case closed. I’ve already stated that in my opinion the publicly revealed violations do not warrant the harshness of international reaction. Obviously the UN Security Council has other information, as it voted without major-power veto to initiate sanctions — and two years ago, to require more rigorous inspections (the so-called “additional protocols”), as allowed by the NPT when a nation violates the basic rules.
All Iran has to do to get out of trouble with the IAEA and the Security Council is to obey the NPT.
The ball, as they say, is in Iran’s court.
All of the above is propaganda and inaccurate. I’ll give a more complete reply when I have time.
Again, I repeat:
“Editor Steve, what publication do you write for because you are very ill educated when it comes to international law it seems.” I delete the words “it seems” from the previous sentence hereby. You are DEFINITELY uneducated when it comes to International Law, and then on top of this don’t even realize that within the same post you contradict yourself several times. I could easily end this discussion with a one word question: “Proof?”, but I will continue to dissect your falsities one by one so that everyone sees right through you — as anyone minimally competent about International law would — and right to the core of the Israeli agenda: to ignore International Laws while attempting to use them as a sword against those who are not criminals like Israel.
(1) Even IF true, your first three paragraphs are not tantamount to violations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty nor do they give rise to a claim in any way. But as a matter of fact, the Iranians do not have to give notice about facilities that are being prepared for enrichment equipment until the very moment they begin to move equipment to them. The revelation came from Iran and no one else, it was no “admission”, but cooperation from Iran within the guidelines set by the IAEA. You have spun this into a confession of some sort.
(2) The second paragraph illustrates, however, that you knew that Iran is required to only give short notice (and you get the number wrong completely – it’s as I stated above). Therefore, you are either getting caught in your own lies or just too unintelligent to realize it. You also just admitted implicitly that Iran’s program is fully monitored. How did Iran get “caught” moving these materials? Could it be that Iran is the most-monitored program ever, as stated by the IAEA and observable through the regular course of history? One of those instances included two inspectors that Iran opted to replace with new ones because of obvious biases (and their falsified claim). This is within their full right under the IAEA safeguards and NPT.
(3) Your third paragraph is a non-sequitur. It does not indicate any failure to comply with the NPT or the IAEA’s demands.
(4) You then go off into a tangent to attempt to make Israel a victim in all of this. You are holding Iran to a violation of the safeguards from seven years ago, and they have since reconciled fully by subjecting to an extensive monitoring regime and also attempting to negotiate in good faith only to be shunned for sanctions (on behalf of bellicose Israel, a country with 200+ rogue nukes – google “Vanunu”. Now, EditorSteve, you are a hasbarist and you get one of my copyrighted form replies already pre-written because you are all like one big echo chamber: “Israel also has an outstanding 189 nation demand (signed also by the US) to come clean about its nuclear arsenal of well over 200+ rogue nuclear weapons that are unaccounted for: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/05/28/world/main6528140.shtml
Israel’s nukes are indeed illegal despite the laymen opinions that you may have read. In fact, Israel’s known possession of 200+ nukes is violative of several laws, both Federal and International, which condition US aid to those countries that produce WMDs (if you make them, you aren’t supposed to get money). This is why the US has been compliant with the superficial “ambiguity” doctrine.
Israel’s violations of international norms and laws are endless. Witness that Israel has the most UN resolutions against it than any other country in the world, and by hundreds. The United States consistently takes the proverbial bullet for this small Apartheid-pushing constituency, completely out of place in the Middle East, in the form of vetoing the world’s demands and condemnations of Israel’s illegal and heinous actions.”
(5) “It is clear that Iran has violated the terms of the NPT it agreed to uphold. Case closed.” Yes, if we were to listen to an incompetent like you, the case would be closed. However, the IAEA, the official monitoring agency who Israel won’t even speak with, despite India and Pakistan subjecting themselves to inspections by the IAEA, has given Iran a clean bill of health consistently and as of the latest report available at http://www.iaea.org.
Now, the case is closed. *DOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNGGGG* Ahh sweet liberty 🙂
“Witness that Israel has the most UN resolutions against it than any other country in the world, and by hundreds.”
That proves nothing but the bias of the UN. Israel crimes are terrible, but any run-of-the-mill dictator in the third world makes it look like mother teresa.
“completely out of place in the Middle East”
Ahh yes, the stench of anti-zionism. So really, it isn’t about the occupation, isn’t about nukes, but about israel’s right to exist.
It truly saddens me that the majority of criticism about israel comes from people who reject zionism entirely. It makes it that much harder to get any change going.
Just like the majority of criticism about immigration into europe comes from neo-nazis, which prevents any progress in the matter.
Richard Silverstein says
This is utter nonsense. Do you know where you are? Do you know anything about this blog? Then how can you spout such drivel?
Richard – I didn’t say you were anti-zionist. Nor do I require every critic of israel to give some kind of pro-zionist disclaimer (I, btw, am not given the same courtesy by most israelis – I’m sure you are familiar with this phenomena).
PersianAdvocate’s line, was, however, quite clearly and offensively opposed to israel’s existance. I’m not sure which part you see as “drivel” – do you think that such a point of view is acceptable, or do you think that it’s uncommon? Regardless, it’s niether.
Ridiculous. Regime change in iran is necessary because of it’s severe human rights violations. The tragedy is that the world didn’t topple the mullahs right after the revolution. The people of iran need outside help, just like the people of palestine.
Richard Silverstein says
This makes me very nervous. Who would help them? What a can of worms you’d open w. this scenario. Iran and Palestine are totally diff. situations. Palestine is held captive by Israel. Iran’s situation & tragedy is totally a domestic one. There is no outside power imposing the mullahs on Iranians, which is why Iranians will have to figure out how to rid themselves of them. You & I can’t do much more than watch fr. the outside & support the democratic forces.
Sure, it’s a hell of a can of worms, sure, no one is ever going to help iran without expecting some kind of profit from it, and sure, it’s a domestic problem.
Which is all totally irrelevant. The people of iran are suffering more than enough to warrent opening that can of worms. The world is simply ignoring their suffering, just like it ignores the suffering of the burmese, chinese, tamils, africans and even palestinians. And no, the occasional “this seems bad to us” and a few million dollars don’t count.
What i find as personally frightening is that israel will be very much like iran in a couple decades, and people like me will have to leave or go underground. And no one will lift a finger to solve our “domestic” problem.
Funny how no one cares about people who aren’t sitting on trillions of dollars worth of resources. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm…..
Sh irin says
Your concern for Iranians’ “suffering” is indeed touching – and very, very convenient.
Yes you are right but that help comes from stopping Israel’s bellicosity, its lobbies throughout the world, disengagement from US foreign policy apparatus, reconciliation with the Palestinians and Israels conformation to over 400 different instances where it has violated international laws and norms, the most in the world. The lobby has blocked Iran’s offers for reconciliation many times by and between America and Iran.
Maybe i’m just daft, but are you implying that israel is somehow responsible for iran’s crimes against it’s own people?
Richard Silverstein says
A distinct possibility.
Thank you, Richard, for analyzing “the Mossad cable”. I try already since weeks to make people read and understand this cable. I would say, it contains seious evidence, that the “Green revolution” in Iran was planned by the Mossad.
PS: Regarding to Ray McGovern, I disagree that faith-based intelligence is the absolute worst kind. What is even worse than faith-based intelligence, is “Feith-based intelligence” – the systematic fabrication of intelligence to fix the facts around the policy. When it comes to the US and Israels lobby, one always has to take into account this possibility.
You are in the right vein, but the “Green Movement” was a reflection of Iranians’ wants for greater individualized freedom. The elections had nothing to do with those wants, other than to serve as the spark under a powder keg. The movement was not green, but red, white, and green, the color Iran’s banner.
Mossad was not solely behind it, but also AIPAC, part of Mossad’s foreign arm that does the bidding of the Israeli government and has buttonmen in the media and government.
Richard Silverstein says
To me, ‘Feith’-based and ‘faith’-based are virtually the same thing. In Feith’s case, his “faith” is in Israel and its interests.
I wouldn’t say that Mossad “planned” the Green Revolution. But I’d say that the MOssad had great interest in it & may even have provided critical covert support in some as yet unknown or undisclosed ways.
We all know the “colour revolution” scheme for regime change. Wikipedia has even an article about it. This scheme is not to invent anger, but to take advantage of anger in part of the society give those angry so powerful propaganda support, financial backing and organizational structure that it results in regime change.
So with backing from US and Western establishment institutions like USAID, NDI, NDI, Freedom house and the like, student groups like “Otpor” managed to stage protests resulting in regime change. The critical role of empowering student groups for staging a coloured revolution is outlined in Wikipedia this way: “Members of Otpor have inspired and trained members of related student movements including Kmara in Georgia, Pora in Ukraine, Zubr in Belarus and MJAFT! in Albania.”
Iran is a bit diffrent regarding ethnic minorities and the role of student groups in society than former Soviet republics, which were the primary targets of coloured revolution after more or less disputed elections, but the basic principle of empowering such groups from outside was more or less the same.
What was new with the Iranian “green movement”, that much of campaign information was coordinated via anonymous Twitter-Accounts like Tehran Bureau. Almost all Western media were used as loudspeakers for anonymous twitter accounts to campaign for green regime change in Iran.
Now have a look into the cable you linked to and the fifth pillar in Israels five pillar strategy as outlined by Mossad boss Dagan 2007. I quote the cable:
E) Force Regime Change: Dagan said that more should be done to foment regime change in Iran, possibly with the support of student democracy movements, and ethnic groups (e.g., Azeris, Kurds, Baluchs) opposed to the ruling regime.
This looks to me pretty much like an intention to stage a colored revolution. Have we seen a try of coloured regime change in Iran? I think, yes, we have seen such a try based on rumored charges of election fraud and including at least one false flag murder for propaganda purposes.
And no the question: who provided the logistic for the green regime change protest campaign on election aftermath and made it as powerful as it was?
Saying that Mossad planned the green revolution, I do not say, that demonstrating students in Iran had and have no legitimate case, but the internal political desire for some change in direction to a more open society was instrumentalized by Mossad with the aim of installing a puppet regime that will kiss the US and Israeli feet.
What came out of this ill brained regime change policy is clear: the political forces suspecting the US, the Mossad and the Brits trying to stage regime change in Iran were strengthened. It became harder to avocate in Iran for a more open society.
In my view, there are two separate questions here:
1. Was, is, Mossad/CIA the planner/instigator of the Green Movement?
2. Was, is, Mossad/CIA trying to take advantage of the Green Movement?
The answer to the first is a definitive no. Even the hardliners have privately and even publicly admitted it. As reported last year in an article on Tehran Bureau website, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejehei, Ahmadinejad Minister of Intelligence reported to Khamenei after huge demonstrations broke out in the aftermath of the election, that his ministry and other security agencies have
not found any evidence that the leaders of the protest had any links to outside, or that the demonstrations were directed or aided by foreigners. That angered Ahmadinejad who was saying the opposite, and fired Ejehei (who is now
opposing him as the country’s Prosecutor General, threatening to prosecute AN’s VP on Monday). Khamenei said as much in a public speech. He said that he
does not believe that what has happened was foreign directed or aided, although he has said that the enemy takes advantage of the situation.
A commentator says that the GM was planned by Mossad/CIA. That is ridiculous and an insult to courageous Iranians. The Movement is the continuation of the Reform Movement of the 1997-2001 and student uprising of 1999. People quickly lost faith in the RM, because they expected too much too fast. But, once they experienced life under Ahmadinejad, they came to their senses. Just a year after he was elected semi-legitimately in 2005, there were already shouts of “death to the dictator” in Iranian university campuses, the hotbed of anti-government activities.
2. The answer to the 2nd question is, very likely. The intelligence agency of any state at odd with Iran would try to take advantage of the situation. But, that does not imply that they control the GM.
That Israel has been trying to instigate tension between ethnic minorities and the majority Persians has been known to Iranians for years. Even a completely democratic Iran is considered a threat to Israel by Israel’s hardliners, as Iran is a vast rich nation with a young, educated and dynamic population, and considerable sympathy (though presumably not of the type that Khamenei-Ahmadinejad exhibit) toward Palestinians.
There is absolutely no question in the minds of a large part of Iranians that Mojahedin-e Khalgh Organization receives support from Israel, and may act as its agents to carry out assassinations and bombings. MKO did do these on a large scale in the first half of the 1980s, before it was suppressed by Iranian government. It has continued its campaign of assassination ever since, except that it is once in a while type of thing, because it lost all of its support within Iran after its collaborate with Saddam Hussein during the war with Iran. Without foreign support, the MKO would not last even a year.
It was Israel that provided intelligence to MKO about Natanz U enrichment facility to announce. Among many Iranians there is a strong suspicion that MKO leader Masoud Rajavi has actually taken refuge in Israel, after he had to flee his headquarters in Iraq when the US took Iraq over. No one knows where he is, and many believe that the reason that he is well hidden is that he is in Israel, beyond the reach of Iran’s security agents.
But, despite ethnic tensions, they will not lead to Iran’s breakup, because Iran as a whole has been well integrated for decades. For example, Khatami’s chief spokesman when he was the President – Abdollah Ramazanzadeh, is a Kurd. General Rahimi Safavi, former IRGC commander and now senior military advisor to Khamenei is a Turk, as is Mir Hossein Mousavi. Karroubi is a Lor, and the Larijani brothers are from Mazandaran, the province by the Caspian sea. All ethnic minorities consider themselves first and foremost Iranian and then something else. Even Jundallah denies emphatically that it is after separation from Iran.
It is not just Israel whose policy toward Iran is based on wishful thinking, and strange extreme scenarios. The US is the same, as are Britain and France.
Muhammad is spot on. Well written, sir!
Oswald Pohl says
why should we advocate regime change? Ahmadinejad is beloved by most Iranians and was democratically elected. He is perhaps the foremost statesman of the 21st century. He has helped liberate S America from the imperialist Monroe Doctrine, liberated Lebanon from the zionist bootheel, and liberating Iraq and Palestine as well.
For some reason, all this liberty seems to come with plenty of oppression.
The “oppression” might have to do with Kawasaki Ninjas planting bombs on academics and a rogue nuclear regime controlling US foreign policy to it’s own ends. Despite Iran’s program being the most monitored ever and it being laughable that they would even build nukes, the rhetoric continues. Iranians will be independent and free, much to the current Israeli leaderships dismay, who think a divided Iran will retain Israeli hegemony — by artifice not natural right. Iran is not divided nor are Iranians. One bullet or even a gun that jams will be enough to reunite us all. It’s already happened. Maybe Israel shouldn’t be listening to Rajavi – he is providing horrible intel and assisting Israel with a suicide that’s unnecessary.
Gene Schulman says
Why does everyone assume that Israel controls U.S. foreign policy? Isn’t it just possible, alas probable, that the U.S. controls Israel’s every move? And whatever Israel does, no matter how horrific, they do it with the full sanction and approval of the U.S. powers. The U.S. is not a patsy. They are using Israel to help do their own dirty work. The two have the same goals, absolute hegemony in the area, and are partners-in-crime.
That is true. I was not detailed enough. When you write US, you also probably mean the current US foreign policy apparatus. The stances and policies are not American. Namely, AIPAC has a strong grip on steering that policy, not Americans like you and I.
Sure they will be free. Unless you happen to be secular, gay or a women.
All whitewashed falsities. I can run that right back by pointing out women can’t even merely carry a Torah near certain parts of the Western Wall, a video clip of Sacha baron Cohen being chased by a mob of Charedim because he was wearing flamboyant garb, and point out the nuances of Iran’s laws that prove your secular argument completely wrong, replete with examples. Continued soon…
1 – http://www.haaretz.com/news/haredim-dub-women-western-wall-worshippers-nazis-1.1831
2 – Notice: Bruno, Sacha Baron Cohen’s gay character, only gets stares for winking at a man in a Muslim setting while getting chased down with violent intent in Israel by an orthodox man. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBcI64QzXNc Iran also is far more progressive than Israel concerning Transexual rights, including providing State Funds for such operations. The propaganda that Ahmadinejad said “Gays Don’t Exist” was construed into an ignorant Ahmadinejad. Instead, he meant to give a “wink, wink, move along this subject is sensational” instead. Here is more information on sex change operations in Iran: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/4115535.stm (“sex change is a human right”)
As for our women, they deserve much more, but they don’t have it as bad as Saudi Arabia or in parts of Israel as exhibited above: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HMJQwbPrdE – The Today Show in Tehran “Iran’s Women”
Now for your whitewash about secularism. Article 23 of the IRI Constitution specifically states that “the investigation of individuals’ beliefs is forbidden, and no one may be molested or taken to task simply for holding a certain belief.” Key word: SIMPLY. If one runs into the street shouting “MARG BAR JOMURE ESLAMI” – a Mujahedin-e Khalq slogan – you better bet they’ll get taken in. That means “Down with the Islamic Regime”.
Homosexuality is outlawed in iran. Women are gravely oppressed. Protest and free speech are terribly restricted. All this is just FROM YOUR COMMENT.
Israel is far better. Very soon it will probably be worse.
Richard Silverstein says
Better? Perhaps though debatable. Far better? Definitely not.
Yes, FAR better. Women do not have to wear religious garb. Gays are not arrested and tortured. There is still a very good measure of free speech. MKs can publicaly oppose any and every part of judaism. Adultry is not a crime. The list goes on and on and on.
My point is not defending israel. As I said, even those rights are fading quickly.
My point is that defending iran on any level is immoral. It is a terrible, terrible place. The world is filled with iranian exiles for a reason. I can only imagine what iranian freedom fighters feel every time someone defends iran just because it’s an enemy of israel and the US.
disclaimer: I am, ofc, refering only to israel’s treatment of it’s citizens (including arabs). It’s treatment of palestinians is probably a more pressing problem than iran’s rights violations.
Richard Silverstein says
What are you smokin’? Do we have a right-wing troll here?
He’s maybe smoking similar things like the people interviewed in this tiny opinion poll here:
I understand, that opinion polls are not always correct, and they depend on who does them, but according to this poll (see page 66 there) Ahmadinejad is the 3rd most popular politician for Arabs, just behind Erdogan and Chavez, but even before Nasrallah and Assad.
So, I think, the claim, that Ahmadinejad is very popular is not at all baseless.
If US wants to do a regime change, that would be seen as favorable by Arab people, they shoud – besides Israel – probably start with countries like KSA, Yemen, Jordan or Egypt. In opposite to the regimes there, Ahmadinejad is seen by many as a hero – and that includes many people on the left side.
I dont know if Israel is behind MKO, but it is well established that Iran funds Hamas and Hezbollah. Why exactly is there enmity between Israel and Iran
“Now compare this with how Iran has reacted to the same types of provocations. Iran has not declared war on Israel. It hasn’t demanded a Security Council session to denounce Israeli aggression. Iran is keeping its cool relatively well considering what it’s facing. ”
Iran is behind Hizballah, build it. financed it, armed it.
Hamas and Syria are also backed by Iran.
The Iranians declared a war when the son of Humeni danced on the roof of the deserted Israeli embassy in Teheran with a PLO rep and co in 1979, that is not keeping it’s cool.
Gene Schulman says
“Iran is behind Hizballah, built it, financed it, armed it. Hamas and Syria are also backed by Iran.” Et alors? (So what?) The U.S. is behind Israel, built it, financed it, armed it. And still does.
Hizballah (sic) is a legitimate party which participates in the government of Lebanon. Hamas is a democratically elected government that defends against the occupation and siege of Gaza. Syria is a sovereign state, as is Iran. if they are friendly, so what? What business is it of Israel and/or the US. to interfere with these governments and sustain aggression against them?
Gene Schulman says
P.S. Which war did the Iranians declare in 1979? I think it’s Rafi who has lost his cool, and doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
I think Rafi is just drunk on Mr. Kool Aid. OOH YA!
Hizbollah is legitimate???? Are you for real? This is beyond disgusting.
It’s a violent religious extremist group. It’s the end of democracy and human rights for lebanon, and a terrifying threat for anyone in lebanon who isn’t shia.
Iranian funding of it is no less criminal than american funding of israel.
Richard Silverstein says
Sorry to tell you but Hezbollah received 33% of the vote in Lebanon’s last election, so yes, Hezbollah is legitimate within Lebanese politics. There are many violent religious extremist groups in both Lebanon and nations to its south as well. Hezbollah isn’t alone. I think you’re overstating yr case. Hezbollah is certainly a flawed political movement, but not that much worse than many others including a few inside Israel.
Yea sure. hizbollah isn’t much worse than noar-hagvaot. So it’s all cool with that.
I guess liberman can’t be that bad either, his party is the third largest in israel.
I am shocked at the bias here. Why is it that any enemy of israel gets pardoned for all their crimes??
Hizbollah’s votes only prove that almost a third of lebanon is actively seeking the end of democracy.
Richard Silverstein says
Lieberman got 10% of Knesset seats. Hezbollah got 33%. They’re a more popular entity in Lebanon.
Apparently, you can’t read. Did you miss the part where I said that Hezbollah held some views that were objectionable?
If Hezbollah rejected democracy they wouldn’t compete in an election. Rather, it’s Israel that doesn’t believe in democracy when it effectively cancelled the outcome of a Palestinian election whose reults it disliked. It also tends to despise the democratic choices of 20% of its own citizens by criminalizing their elected representatives. So who has a problem w. democracy here?
No, but they’re stabbed in public & also murdered in their community centers by assailants who the police can’t even catch or prosecute. Israel’s record on homophobia isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.
Except if you’re Israeli-Palestinian, a reporter who writes embarrassing things about the IDF, a peace activist, NIF president, or anyone else who bucks the system. Then, not so much free speech.
But you can’t ride a bus on Shabbat in Jerusalem can you? Nor can you get married in a civil ceremony. Nor can a Reform Jew’s conversion be recognized as valid.
The list goes on and on.
Sure it is. You don’t even have the courage of yr own convictions & admitting what yr purpose is.
I’m rapidly losing patience w. yr nonsense. No one here is “defending” Iran. We’re merely pointing out that demonization of Iran on any level is also immoral. You’re too small minded to understand the diff. bet. defending a country & refusing to allow it to be demonized & attacked w. bombs & missiles.
You said almost all criticism of Israel was grounded in anti Zionism. And you said this at a site owned by a progressive Zionist who is critical of Israel. Lame.
I dare you to prove this. And if you distort or lie about others views here you violate the comment rules. Be careful & be accurate or risk the consequences.
“Hezbollah held some views that were objectionable… refusing to allow it to be demonized & attacked w. bombs & missiles”
That’s the problem. Hezbollah and iran are not “objectionable”, they are much closer to demonic. Even israel’s treatment of jews (like you described) is far worse than “objectionable”, and it’s far better than iran’s. This is a big difference. Their crimes are being whitewashed, the suffering of their victims is being belittled. They have to be attacked, if not economically then with bombs.
Terrible regimes are given a break just because they are enemies of israel.
“The list goes on and on.”
And it’s terrible. I know very well israel’s record on human rights. And it’s still pathetic compared to iran’s.
“You said almost all criticism of Israel was grounded in anti Zionism. And you said this at a site owned by a progressive Zionist who is critical of Israel.”
So? I’m also a zionist who is critical of israel. How about I replace “majority” with “much”? Would that sound better?
This is a real problem. It’s giving endless ammunition to right-wingers, and there is really nothing to do about it.
“completely out of place in the Middle East”.
That’s his line, refering to israel. Make of it what you will. Other than that, I don’t see the point of arguing with you about someone elses views.
“But you can’t ride a bus on Shabbat in Jerusalem can you?”
Or anywhere else, for that matter.
Richard Silverstein says
this is a violation of my comment rules, which you now must read carefully. Yr next violation will cause all future comments to be moderated.
And here it is. Yr next comment violation will cause you to lose all yr privileges. I will monitor yr future contributions very carefully and you are warned.
I am honestly shocked by your warning. I completely believe in outside military intervention against oppressive regimes, as a measure of last resort. I believe it might one day prove necessary in iran, as it’s already necessary in places in africa, aswell as north korea (although not practically possible) and burma.
Very soon, mind you, a western invasion into israel will also be necessary to avoid a wholesale ethnic cleansing of the palestinian people.
I am surprised you see this as so offensive.
I hope I can still get unwarned.
Richard Silverstein says
Frankly, I’m not interested in what you believe in regarding military intervention. War is not an option & I don’t accept its advocacy here. If that’s your view there are thousands of other sites that will welcome you.
Military intervention is only a legitimate option when there are NO other options & genocide impends. That’s not nearly the case in Iran.
Wow such weak propaganda. One should wonder if this is the best Israel PR can do whether they are smart enough to even control boatloads of Uranium. More to follow when I have time, but if Gene wants to link a certain Veterans Today article for me I would appreciate it. (busy right now)
Richard Silverstein says
Iran has not declared war on anyone in several hundred yrs. Nice try.
Why the current Israeli government must be strongarmed into signing the NPT: http://www.veteranstoday.com/2010/12/11/did-pm-netanyahu-get-a-lethal-dose-of-du/