17 thoughts on “Israel’s Intelligence Hocus-Pocus Regarding Iran Attack – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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  1. They won’t attack Iran. I’m with you Richard. So now at least two of us can feel dumb if it actually happens (along with horrified and scared).

    1. I am firmly convinced that Israel and/or the U.S. WILL attack Iran. But I agree with you, Richard, it wouldn’t be telegraphed through you or any other blog. You are being scammed by practical jokers.

  2. If you are important enough for Israeli operatives to use as a means of coercing the US into attacking iran, or really as a means of anything, than you are definitely important enough to be sent top-secret material by morally confused idf officers.
    This looks like just someone trying to make you look stupid by publishing ridiculous rumors.

  3. There is no doubt that Israel wants this war. Usually if someone wants something that bad they eventually get it…meanwhile they just keep banging the war drums non-stop. I’m sure you are not the only one to receive this attention from crazy war/messiah lovers.

  4. Richard, what do you make of the theory that the iranian nuclear plant is now so advanced that a bomb on it would set off a nuclear explosion? Therefore, Israel (or the US) can no longer afford to bomb it.

    Sounds like a mixed blessing, doesn’t it?

    1. Bombing a live nuclear reactor won’t set off a secondary nuclear explosion (as in “atomic bomb”) because there’s no bomb-grade material in it, i.e. the fissile U235 atoms are much too diluted by non-fissile U238 and other stuff to set off a chain reaction. That’s by design, of course.

      That’s not to say a core meltdown or similar damage couldn’t happen, distributing radioactive material in the environment (think Chernobyl). Why would that mean “Israel (or the US) can no longer afford to bomb it”? Neither would be affected by the fallout, and both have proven to be plenty generous with other middle eastern people’s lives.

    2. Gila,

      Nuclear plants have a core that can melt down. They don’t explode… unless, someone has planted a warhead and armed the thing. A warhead can be made to go bOOm, and then… the reactor’s core will melt.

  5. Next time, threaten to report them to the SEC.
    Anyone in a position to short sell stocks of companies (and currencies) likely to be affected by an attack, can make a profit out of rumours like this. It’s called “making a false market” on the charge sheet.

    There is an international legal presumption against attacking a fueled nuclear power station, because it would distribute, widely, already radioactive material, although when first fueled, nothing becomes all that radioactive until after the control rods have been withdrawn and it’s actually started to run, which is not currently the case.

    To actually create a dirty nuclear explosion from a reactor core, one would have to get a small fusion bomb neutron bomb) into the core and hope it’d make enough high energy neutrons to force-fission the fissionable U-238, which would make enough slow neutrons to fission a lot of the fissile U-235, which is there in much lower proportion.

    John Bolton wanted Israel to bomb the thing before it was fueled up. He’s gone so extreme in his old age that he no longer even represents the neo-cons.

    This is essentially a Russian reactor on Iranian soil. Given the friendly links between the Oligarchs and Israel’s extreme right movers and shakers, it’s probably the least likely installation in the whole of Iran to be attacked by Israel.

    If I were asked to stop Iran’s nuclear programme for minimum effort, I’d work on the Revolutionary Guard’s various franchises that give them an income apart from tax revenues under government control. Not only do these fund the nuclear programme: they make the Revolutionary Guard financially independent from the elected government of Iran, which hasn’t always been in favour of the Guard’s agenda.

    Most of these franchises are to do with distribution, of everything from Mercedes cars to natural gas. The latter has been done so badly recently, that there have been several big explosions, only one of which is believed to have been sabotage, even by the paranoid Revolutionary Guard. They have taken money out of running the pipeline network since the eighties, without any spending on maintenance, and, like Russia in the early nineties, are reaping the consequences.

    Work on the Guard’s free money and it won’t just cripple their weapons programme, without killing anyone: it will tilt the balance within Iran back in favour of elected politicians. More people will vote if the government actually controls the country!

  6. Nothing happened, what to make of it?
    I think chances of an attack go up in the next 2 years, highest in 2012 and then go down drastically after that.
    Peace is coming!

  7. This is a request for your best assessment as to the questions below, which arises from the following facts:
    (1) In 2007and into 2008 all indications were Israel was preparing to attack Iran;
    (2) In mid-2008 Israel asked Bush to assist in such an attack;
    (2) Bush refused;
    (3) No attack occurred.

    Query: (1) Why did Israel not proceed with an attack on its own, and (2) The basis for that view?

    Your insight will be much appreciated.

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