1 thought on “Touts Bet Obama to Win Iowa – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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  1. Richard,

    Over the last three or four elections down here in Australia the pundits discovered that the betting market provides a better guide than any opinion poll as to the final outcome. It is even true down to the level of individual seats (districts) . As an example of just how good a guide tehy porvide I recommend an article by a local psephologist (election analyst) Charles Richardson [disclosure: a friend] on the outcome of the recent Australian elections held on 24 November. (One seat is being counted for the third time today) otherwiseall lower house are in.The Senate results are incomplete as yet. (We have a beauty of a counting method).

    Sol Salbe

    Melbourne Australia

    Richardson: How I made money on the election

    Friday, 14 December 2007

    Charles Richardson writes:

    As I noted back in October, betting on Australian elections was still a novel idea in 2004. But this year it was big business. At least three major online bookmakers offered odds on results in individual seats, as well as a variety of other combinations, and many commentators looked to them as a guide to voter sentiment.

    I’ve been taking advantage of this opportunity, and over the course of the year I’ve staked a little over $4,400 in election bets. The results are now all in (with the exception of McEwen, where I’ve got $35 on Labor), so it’s time to balance the books.

    I’m showing a profit of $1,092.25, or a return of about 25%. I’m fairly pleased with that, but I don’t think it shows an exceptional degree of either skill or luck; it’s more a matter of understanding how elections differ from more typical betting markets like horse racing.

    A horse race is a random event in a way that an election is not; it’s much easier for things to go suddenly and unpredictably wrong for even the most fancied runner. That’s why many of the individual seat markets showed the sort of odds you’ll never see on a racetrack, with favorites at 50-1 on or even 100-1 on.

    Continues: http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20071214-How-I-made-money-on-the-election.xml

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