Trump’s Art of the Failed Iran Deal

Yesterday, Pres. Trump and Iran’s president signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU–full text linked) which ends hostilities between the US and Iran.  Israel has been left out in the cold.  Trump appears to have given away the store.  Both their poitical allies and enemies are dumbfounded that so much has been sold off in return for so little.

They face enormous blowback for their respective roles in the Iran war and the document that ended it.  The Israeli Opposition has denounced the MOU as a sell-out of the national interest. Regarding Lebanon, given the prime minister’s claim that Israel would destroy Hezbollah once and for all, the MOU offerrs an entirely different account:

The US, Iran and their allies in the current war…declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.

Israel’s failure promises to be Bibi’s undoing

This is a slap in the face to Netanyahu. It lays out in indusputable terms that Israel’s invasion and occupation must end.  When that happens is undecided.  But if the MOU is to be a meaningful document, it must happen eventually.

The Israeli prime minister failed in almost every goal he had set out to achieve: no regime change, no destruction of nuclear program, no decapitation of the military-political leadership, no destruction of Iranian infrasructure. The political result has been devastating.  With an election looming, polls show the right-wing ruling coalition dropping to 52 seats compared to the Opposition’s 57.  Neither have a 61-seat majority.  But as of now, Bibi appears to be finished as prime minister, likely indefinitely.  Of course, this poll eliminates the Palestinian parties, who have been denied any meaningful role in governance.

Of course, the Opposition would not have done anything differently from Netanyahu–except perhaps avoiding the war to begin with.  Same ideology, slightly different choices.

I want to take you back a year: Israel was riding high. It had compromised the pagers of thousands of Hezbollah fighters in a complex scheme that involved infiltrating a European supply chain and implanting an explosive charge in every device.  The ensuing mayhem severely injured 4,000, and killed some (including children). The air force had directly attacked Iran for the first time, knocking out its entire air defense system.  Bashar al Assad’s dictatorship had fallen in Syria.  Global media was trumpeting the triumph. Israel and its intelligence services reigned supreme.

Yet I warned that these were all ephemeral victories.  Tactical, but not strategic.  The will to resist foreign Occupation would outlast any effort to suppress it.  The pendulum swings. It does not remain still.  Now it has swung back in the opposite direction. It is Israel which is on the back foot, vulnerable.  While its enemies, so recently laid low, are now rising. This highlights the limits of Israel’s policy of substituting aggression for compromise.  Domination by force is a temporary solution. Thinking it is a viable long-term policy is a fool’s errand.

Trump’s failure

Trump doesn’t come out much better.  Comparing his declared goals for the war back in February with the agreement signed, indicates how badly he’s fared:

…The US will begin the removal of its naval blockade…and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days…The US further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

The US blockade ends. Its tens of thousands of troops go home, along with the aircraft carriers, war planes, missiles, etc.  In return, Trump gets very little he didn’t already have before the war.  In particular, Iran agrees it will not pursue a nuclear weapon–something it has declared for more than a decade; and confirmed by US intelligence findings.

Instead of the resumption of free passage for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump has secured Iran’s agreement only for 30 days. After that, the MOU envisions a potential Omani-Iranian tolling authority to be negotiated and implemented by them. This is yet another abject failure.

The MOU provides for a $300-billion reconstruction fund to repair damage from the Israeli-US attacks on Iran.  The document doesn’t make clear what the source of these funds will be.  Presumably, it would be from those frozen by sanctions.  The 2015 JCPOA never offered any such consideration (only $1.7-billion was restored to Iran).  Since the Obama administration never went to war against Iran, this wasn’t necessary.

In perhaps the most glaring of the givebacks, the US agreed to remove decades worth of sanctions worth potentially hundreds of billions:

The US undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against Iran, including the UN Security Council resolutions, i.e. IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions…in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal…Iran and the US acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned.

…The US will make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets…of Iran.

Further, these unfrozen assets will be transferred to Iran’s Central Bank, which may then be transferred to “any ultimate beneficiary” it designates.  Another win for Iran.

Regarding Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, Trump had demanded that it be transferred to the US.  Instead, the MOU offers this vague commitment: the parties have “agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon…” Trump and Netanyahu had demanded the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program.  Instead, “Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program.”

Trump rails against Netanyahu on the international stage

Trump HUMILIATES Netanyahu at the G7 Press Conference After Iran MoU Defiance

“We are the big partner, and he is the very small partner.

I say, you can do a little softer touch, Bibi, you don’t have to knock down a building every time somebody walks into it; that’s from… pic.twitter.com/Om4xXa3IRF

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) June 17, 2026

Pres. Trump held a press conference at the G7 Summit and devoted a large amount of time to attacking the Israeli leader.  Apparently, he’s still rankled by Netanyahu’s failed attempts to sabotage the ceasefire deal:

“He [Netanyahu] will say: ‘we are the big partner, and he is the very small partner. And that’s true…Bibi happens to be a good man–gets a little bit excited sometimes. We have a little dispute over Lebanon.  I say, you can do a little softer touch, Bibi, you don’t have to knock down a building every time somebody walks into it that’s from Hezbollah. They’ve been a good partner. I think they could do better, with respect to Hezbollah. I’m not saying they shouldn’t protect themselves, I’m saying when two drones are shot into the desert and dropped harmlessly, you don’t have to knock down buildings in Beirut. They could behave better. And frankly they could do a better job…They could do a much better job with Hezbollah. “

Needless to say, this is unprecedented for a US president.  Given the power of the Israel Lobby and its billionaire donors, this is simply not done.  That it has been done marks a sea change in the US-Israel relationship. No longer is it sacrosanct.  Trump has created a precedent future presidents can use in charting a different, more independent and critical course.

Trump’s dressing-down amounts to yet another blow to Bibi’s ego and his political status.  Israeli politicians can talk big about pursuing an indepdent course without regard to American dictates.  But they cannot survive a president who speaks derisively of them. They cannot tolerate a leader who drives a wedge between them and the “big partner.”  In their hearts, they know they are “the very small partner.”  It’s painful to acknowledge and often they refuse to do so.

But what they canot abide is their leader being called “a very small partner.”  That reduces Netanyahu to a little puppet on a string, doing the US bidding; and getting lectured when it strays from the program. Nevertheless–and despite the braggodocio–Israelis understand that they need the US to survive.

Netanyahu’s Lebanon offer

Israel’s Channel 13, reports (Hebrew) that Netanyahu fears the enforcement of the MOU regarding Lebanon and a Trump demand for a full withdrawal:

Israel is concerned about the agreement that is taking shape between the United States and Iran, especially on the issue of Lebanon, and that Trump may order an immediate [IDF] evacuation from Lebanon. The proposed compromise: a drawing down of forces, which will allow the IDF to remain at strategic points on the ground

Currently, it occupies 20% of Lebanese territory and maintains 75,000 soldiers there.  Though the actual number is secret, five divisions are currently serving there. That would mean a 50-75,000-strong contingent. Netanyahu’s proposal does not specify the number to be drawn down.

Though it is difficult to predict how Trump will react to this proposal, one thing is for certain: if Israel continues its mayhem in Lebanon and Iran intervenes, launching missiles at Israel–and this jeopardizes the MOU–Trump will have no compunction about laying down the hammer on Netanyahu.