Iran War: the Future Foretold

What does the future portend in the aftermath of the four month Iran-US-Israel war?  What may happen or not happen as a result?

Israel is the biggest loser: Netanyahu’s grand plan to topple the Islamic Republic and replace it with a defanged, fragmented statelet ruled by a subservient strongman (of the sort Israel prefers)–has failed. The destruction of Iran’s nuclear capability has failed.  Its plan for Kurdish forces to invade Iran and foment a popular uprising failed. Its ongoing support for regional proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen has been damaged, but not eliminated.  Though it has endured punishing blows, Israel and the US have not knocked out Iran’s military capabilities.

This is more than just the failure of a badly contrived plan for regime change. It marks a turning point for Israel’s projection of power in the region.  While it still retains tremendous resources which dominate the field (in certain circumstances), it has shown the limits of that power.  It is no longer the great hegemon, the invincible force.  It is just one player among many, each vying for supremacy. This is not the status that Israel has expected, and which it has enjoyed for decades.

In fact, Iran’s regional standing and influence has risen as a leader of the resistance to US-Israeli power.  As a result, those Arab states considering normalizing ties with Israel have been forced to backtrack.  No matter how much their strongmen leaders might wish to enjoy the fruits of an Israeli alliance, they can’t possibly do so in the face of this war.

Netanyahu, by dint of his dogged determination, finally persuaded Trump to go along with the former’s ill-begotten scheme of regime change.  The US president became a willing, even enthusiastic participant.  Until it became clear that no amount of punishment would bring tit to heel.  Iran was bloody, but unbowed.

In fact, it came out of the war stronger in many ways than before.  It knew it had outlasted the most powerful military force in the world. That is a heady brew for a country previously thought to be a paper tiger, in the face of the might of two of the great global powers.

The supreme irony is that Iran’s successful resistance to the Great Powers is reminiscent of the Judean revolts against Rome in 70 and 130CE. Though ultimately unsuccessful, they displayed the dogged determination and military skill of an small insurgent nation determined to maximize its advantages, and fight for its freedom against the supreme colonial power of the day.

Iran was the biggest winner in this war. Though it may have wanted an end to the war as much as Trump, it was determined it could not, and would not waver.  A US president who offered bluff and bluster, understood eventually that he had to waver and finally come to a deal.

After Trump’s lesson learned, can Israel go it alone?

Trump’s presidency has been one long series of blunders and unforced errors which have contributed to the greatest decline in American power in generations. This war is no exception.  It has confirmed a downward trajectory in global influence and military strength.  No longer does the US carry Teddy Roosevelt’s “big stick.”  It has become a thin reed.

Our allies and enemies have witnessed Trump’s failure.  The deal he signed offers nothing more than the JCPOA negotiated by Barack Obama, whom he has excoriated. He spent $100-billion on a war he couldn’t win; to achieve objectives that were attainable through diplomacy, rather than conflict.  It was a war based on personal vanity.

How has Trump lost? Let us count the ways:

Trump’s defense [of the agreement] boiled down to the idea that the U.S. had achieved most of what it could from its military campaign and naval blockade. He had already asserted that Americans lacked “the stomach” for greater action and explained today that further bombing risked destroying the global economy.

After ignoring the economic punishment from the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and its impact on the massive disapproval of his economic policies, he now has conceded the point:

“It would have been easier, and I would have satisfied a group of 10 percent of the people, but it would have been the wrong thing to do, and it could have caused it, could have caused an international depression,” he said.

The memorandum of understanding offers Iran numerous concessions not even offered in the Obama nuclear deal:

The agreement, the president said, does allow for other countries to invest in Iran as its economy reopens…The U.S. is willing to unfreeze Iranian assets if Tehran continues to follow the agreement and not pursue nuclear weapons…

The U.S. will immediately issue sanctions waivers so Iran can begin selling oil and will also begin a process for releasing frozen funds, with Iran’s Central Bank able to freely determine how to spend the money.

…Trump suggested Iran should be able to maintain some ballistic missile capability…“They have to have some because other people have some,” Trump said. “Missiles aren’t the problem, they hurt a little…but they don’t blow up the planet.”

Trump gained nothing and conceded (almost) everything. He emerges weaker among all parties: Democrats, Republicans, world leaders, rival nations, etc.

After he launched the battle, Iran called the president’s bluff.  It fought the US to a standstill on the battlefield (both economic and military–on land and sea).  In holding out for a ceasefire agreement that addressed many of its demands, it again called Trump’s bluff.  It played a strong hand and won.

Of one thing you can be sure: he will never allow himself to be dragged into one of Israel’s hare-brained schemes for regional dominance.  He will never go to war with Israel again.  That leaves Israel out in the cold.  It may continue its strategy of serial invasions, interventions and genocide against its rivals, but the US will not be there with him.  It will be alone.  Its policy will be unilateral instead of bilateral.

Further proof of Israel’s diminishing status is the disdain with which Trump has treated Netanyahu over the past weeks, as he sought desperately to sabotage any ceasefire agreement.  The president’s expletive-laced rants against him will not fade from either’s memory.  Though the Israeli leader will attempt to paper over the recriminations (and despite Trump’s short attention span) he will not soon forget Netanyahu’s none-too-subtle jabs and defiance.

Israel faces a tenuous relationship with the US leader over the next two and one-half years.  A likely Democratic successor will probably treat Israel even worse given the bitterness of Democratic voters toward its genocide and being dragged into its forever wars.

Even more potentially dire, is the possibility that Trump and any future US president will refuse to send billions in weapons to fuel these conflicts.  As it is, the American military learned how quickly its stocks of advanced weaponry, especially missiles, could be exhausted.  It will be far more stringent in emptying its arsenals in future.  Without the missiles, bombs, ammunition, war planes sent by the US, Israel will be hard-pressed to maintain its six or seven-front offensives.

Given these constraints, it remains to be seen how Israel will react.  Will it decide to ramp up its weapons development and production in order to become fully self-sufficient (a goal which seems unlikely); or will it downsize its ambitions, realizing there are limits to its will to impose itself on its neighbors?  The latter seems unlikely given Israel’s defiance of every limit any world leader or body has attempted to impose.  It relies on force alone to muscle its way, pursuing its interests at the barrel of a gun. Such a deeply ingrained attitude cannot change over night–or perhaps ever.  This refusal to face reality could be a deadly trap and endanger Israel’s long-term survival.

Can it go it alone?  Producing all the armaments it needs, fulfilling the budgetary demands, and filling the ranks with the military manpower it requires–in order to sustain this approach?  Israel is stubborn enough to believe this is possible.  It may devise and implement such plans.  But ultimately, it seems unlikely to succeed. Even if it does, Israel will be far more vulnerable without robust US diplomatic and military support.  There will undoubtedly come a reckoning and the outcome will be a shock to its system.