NY Times headline
UPDATE: After publication here, Iran announced it was again closing the Strait of Hormuz until the US lifts its own blockade. Meaning we’re back to square one. There are now two blockades. Iran in the Strait and the US in the Gulf of Oman. Iran will only permit shipping that coordinates with the IRG. While the US Navy, will presumably stop such traffic. In this case, no vessels will make an attempt to traverse the waterway.
It’s yet another setback for Trump, who’s claimed for days and publicly that we’re near a deal and almost everything’s been worked out. This appears to be yet another prevarication intended to lull Americans and the world into thinking that he’s pulled yet another rabbit out of his hat. Instead of the brilliant dealmaker he wants us to believe he is, he looks ever more like the flim-flam man he is. He appears not to have any idea what his negotiators are doing, whether they are progressing or failing. He doesn’t understand the basics of a negotiated diplomatic solution. He regards them as operative only as long as he wishes them to be. Then he feels free to move on. That’s not how things work and when you don’t respect agreements, chaos ensues. Regardless of the situation, he continues with the bluffing and the blather.
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In one of the most head scratching developments in the war, both Trump and Iran are now claiming the Strait of Hormuz is “open.” This after the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair declared in no uncertain terms the Strait was closed.
What Trump means but is not saying is that Iran has opened the waterway, while the US interducts any vessel sailing to or from an Iranian port. That’s not “open” in any normal sense of the word.
Iran for its part is declaring victory and maintaining that it controls the Strait. It’s not clear whether this isn’t a way for each side to declare victory on its own terms.
An equally head-spinning development is Trump’s emphatic announcement that he had ordered Netanyahu to cease Israeli attacks on Lebanon, including the south. This followed by only a single day the announcement of a Lebanese ceasefire agreement, in which Israel declared it would not stop such attacks, which it would limit to “defensive” operations.
Trump’s comments about the Israeli assault on Lebanon were highly critical:
- “Israel has to stop. They can’t continue to blow buildings up. I am not gonna allow it,” he said.
- “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!”
Ah, but not so fast. After furious calls from the Israeli ambassador, the White House released this statement which reverted back to the original ceasefire language:
“The President’s ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel clearly states that Israel will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets but preserves its right to self-defense against planned, imminent or ongoing attacks,” the U.S. official said.
So who you gonna believe? Trump I or Trump II? He never ceases to amaze, and not in a good way. Foreign policy by fiat is how we got into this mess. Getting out of it (if we do) the same way is not much of an improvement.
Though the Strait is closed to traffic as determined by US forces, Iran continues to maintain de facto control of the critical waterway. It can determine who goes through and who does not. It can decide to charge a toll for safe passage and will do so, if not now then when the US leaves. Even if it does none of these things now, it has established a precedent for doing them later.
Another win for Iran is the updated Lebanon ceasefire, which prohibits Israel from launching any further attacks on Lebanon. This was a provision of the Iran ceasefire, on which both Netanyahu and Israel reneged. It has now been reaffirmed.
Contrast all of this with the pre-war status quo: free passage, no tolls, no multi billion dollar US armada, no Iranian control. Now we have a world economy almost on its knees, the prospect of oil shortages and huge hikes in energy and food prices, blocked sea passages, $35-billion cost of US military operations, Iran’s elevated status leading resistance against Israeli-US aggression, and jeopardized relations with Gulf allies. And all for what? Trump didn’t achieve any of the objectives he articulated at the start of the war. No regime change. No restriction on its nuclear program. Now, he’s just struggling to get back to status quo ante.
If I didn’t know better I’d say Trump wants out of his mess of his own making as soon as possible. He appears ready to make concessions to get there. But will they be enough? Or will the upcoming second round of talks end up a failure as the first one did?
Going forward, the key will be: does Trump continue to rein in Netanyahu or does he permit him to revert to his previous barbarity. The president isn’t known for having a long attention span, so the prospects don’t appear good in the long term. But any deal that stops this insanity is a good thing.
Richard
The image in the sidebar titled “US Destroyer …” seems incorrect. First, the foreground ship is a tanker, but the trailing ship is a container or other type of cargo ship. Second, the destroyer seems way too close to the headland with the lighthouse. Third, the wakes of the several ships and speedboats seem incompatible with each other. Finally, I have not seen the S. of Hormuz, but the passage shown is less than a mile wide (judging from the size of the tanker) and Hormuz is way wider than that.
Do you have any information about this image?
@Jeff: It looks to me like the image is AI-generated. Almost, definitely it’s not a photograph. Perhaps it’s just meant as an illustration (2 tankers, a destroyer, etc.). I do wish media outlets would label images that aren’t real, but rather AI-generated.