Trump Breaks With Sixty Years of US-Israel Relations

In the past two weeks Pres. Trump has shattered the norms of US-Israel relations. It is the most profound break that has ever occurred in the bilateral relationship. Until the past day or so, there has been nary a word about this momentous development from the media or Israel Lobby. The latter must be shell-shocked by this sudden renunciation of the formerly joined-at-the-hip relationship.

For the past two years, the Biden and Trump administrations have worked assiduously for a Gaza ceasefire.  The former succeeded in a single ceasefire which freed many of the Israeli hostages, including most of the Israeli-Americans.  All other attempts (and there have been many) have failed solely due to Netanyahu’s refusal to end the hostilities.  As many have pointed out, including the hostage families themselves, he was motivated by purely political considerations.  The war shielded him from prosecution for corruption and maintained his fragile grip on power.  When Israel fights a war, dissent is automatically suppressed, which is what guarantees his hold on power.

These constraints are irrelevant to the US relationship, which was previously bound by domestic politics, including the power of the Lobby.  Trump has broken this continuity.  In his frustration with Netanyahu’s obstructionism, he has set up a bright red line in relations.  He has, in effect, said that if Israel refuses to accommodate US interests, it will pay a price. We’ve seen this in a slew of radical new policies Trump has instituted before and during his whirlwind Gulf trip.

Trump secures Hamas deal to release US hostage

It began with secret direct talks with Hamas which led to the freeing of the sole remaining living American hostage, Edan Alexander.  The talks were unprecedented because for decades, the US followed the Israeli lead and refused direct talks with Hamas.  Trump broke that taboo as if it was tissue paper.  He also never revealed to Israel until the deal was sealed.  Very rarely in the past has the US deliberately concealed its diplomatic dealings impacting Israel in the region.  This coup was a deliberate slap in the face to Netanyahu, who has adamantly rejected any deal that would free hostages and compel an end to the genocide.

While in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the president signed massive trade deals. Though he did not agree to two provisions the Saudis wanted–nuclear technology and a security pact–he chose not lobby for an agreement to normalize relations with Israel. That is a much-coveted trophy by Netanyahu.

But Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has said explicitly that there will be no recognition until Israel “offers a path to a Palestinian state.” That is almost a meaningless statement given how slippery Israel is on this subject. But it has refused to even offer a feeble attempt to satisfy the Saudis. That’s why the US president didn’t place any pressure on the Saudis to act.

Trump essentially decided that if Bibi wanted to continue the war indefinitely, he would go his own way.  That means no normalization, shutting Israel out of the three-way partnership with the US and the Saudis.

4. Signing trade deals w Saudi Arabia that ignore normalization
5. Signing hostage deal w Hamas

Israeli policy is diametrically opposed to all of them. Thus, Trump is weaning the US off Israel. It’s a radical shift in US policy.
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— Tikun Olam 🍉 (@richards1052) May 15, 2025

Prospect of Iran-US nuclear deal

One of the most significant breaks between Trump and Netanyahu is the former’s initiation of nuclear talks with Iran.  After Biden lost a golden opportunity by refusing to resume talks, Trump has thrown out the old playbook and invited it to begin a dialogue.  This resulted yesterday in an Iranian in the senior leadership saying:

…Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium which can be weaponized, agree to enrich uranium only to the lower levels needed for civilian use, and allow international inspectors to supervise the process, in exchange for the immediate lifting of all economic sanctions on Iran.

Asked if Iran would agree to sign an agreement today if those conditions were met, Shamkhani said, “Yes.”

This marks a significant set of concessions by the Iranians.  In fact, it’s the most radical turnaround in the negotiations since the 2015 nuclear agreement.  It has the prospect of normalizing relations between the two countries, which have been strained (to say the least) since 1979.

Netanyahu: defeated historic enemies, abandoned by historic ally

During the past year, Israel has defeated two of its most implacable enemies: Hamas and Hezbollah.  It breached UN resolutions, invaded and occupied large tracts of their sovereign territory, and said it would continue to occupy it indefinitely in contravention of international law.  It also watched with glee as its other enemy, Syria’s Bashar al Assad was toppled.  But that didn’t satisfy.

He was replaced by a “reformed” former al Qaeda leader, Ahmed al Sharaa, who sought to regain stability and commence a nation building process.  But Israel thrives on dysfunctional neighboring states and does its best to destabilize and weaken them.  Thus, after Assad’s fall it began attacking military targets inside the country, even though it had ceased to provide Iran rights to transship weapon through its territory to Hezbollah in Lebanon.  Netanyahu and his cabinet toadies called al Sharaa an “al Qaeda terrorist” even though he broke with the group years ago:

…He’s taken off the mask and exposed his true face: A jihadist terrorist of the al-Qaeda school who is committing horrifying acts against a civilian population.”

When Trump went to Saudi Arabia earlier this week, he expected an immense gift basket from MBS.  In exchange, he knew he had to offer something desirable.  One of the goodies was an agreement to lift Syrian sanctions, which had been in place for decades.  They were a serious impediment to rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure destroyed during 15 years of civil war.

Israel, of course, doesn’t want a strong Syria with centralized rule.  The new US policy flies in the face of its interests.  To which Trump would say: I have bigger fish to fry.  With the prospect of billions in trade and investment, Israel becomes little more than an after-thought.  Money talks. Interests are transactional.  Israel has relied on a false notion that our interests are inextricably intertwined through shared values.  But Trump’s only value is what’s in it for him.  Everything else is secondary, at best.  Israel has no idea how to adjust to the changed circumstance.  So far, it’s being left in the dust.

US-Houthi ceasefire

Trump also engineered a radical change in US relations with the Houthis, who had essentially closed the Persian Gulf to international shipping.  US naval vessels patrolled the waters, but under constant barrage of Yemeni missiles.  They also fired projectiles at Israel, most recently coming within yards of striking Ben Gurion’s international terminal.  Israel considers the Houthis another implacable enemy and has launched multiple attacks on their military capabilities.

Trump saw continued conflict as counter to his interests. So he negotiated a ceasefire with the Houthis in which they would cease targeting US vessels in return for our ceasing attacks on them.  Notably, the agreement omitted any consideration of Israeli interests.  The Houthi planned to continue their attacks on Israel until the war in Gaza ended.  Once again, the president refused to permit Israel to be the tail that wagged the dog.

All of this means a radical recalibration of US-Israel relations.  That being said, nothing is permanent with Trump.  Some of these deals could unravel.  He might return to good relations with this or a future Israeli government. But what few seem to notice, is that Trump has set a precedent that future administrations can follow.  Once they’ve seen that a US president can strike out against Israel’s interests in favor of our own, they will be emboldened to follow suit.

This is a development the Democratic left has advocated for decades. It has fallen on deaf ears in the face of hundreds of millions in campaign cash dumped on pro-Israel candidates and weaponized against those with the temerity to urge a more skeptical approach.  While I despise everything about Donald Trump, in this he has made a considerable achievement that could radically transform relations for decades to come.

Israel will be increasingly isolated.  It can no longer depend on unlimited US largesse in supplying weapons for its forever wars.  Without US weapons, it becomes considerably more difficult to fight protracted wars as it has in Gaza.  Netanyahu recognized that fact when he said that the country will have to “‘detox’ from US military aid.”  This in itself comes as a radical shock to Israeli leaders.  Without its powerful superpower ally, it becomes increasingly isolated on the global stage.  It also becomes easier for countries and international bodies to mount challenges to Israel’s crimes.  No longer, would they face the considerable opposition and clout of the US.

Clearly, this is a projection of what could happen.  There is no guarantee that future developments will proceed as I outline above.  But it has become much more likely that they will after Trump’s massive shift in policy.