Israeli media reports that the IAF has destroyed 85% of Syria’s air defense systems. This offers its war planes unimpeded access to Syrian airspace. Now, for the first time its air force has a direct air corridor to Iran. It will no longer have to make vast detours though airspace of other countries which permit it overflight rights.
Israel’s decimation of Iran’s major allies, Hamas and Hezbollah; and the collapse of its Syrian ally, Assad; along with missile attacks against Iranian military bases and assassination of IRG commanders, has made Iran feel exposed and vulnerable. It could drive them toward producing a nuclear weapons as an insurance policy. This is motivating the IDF to strike now before this happens:
The IDF is now updating its plans to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, motivated by concerns that the collapse of the Shiite axis and Hezbollah’s weakening might drive Tehran to make a desperate move toward reaching military nuclear capabilities.”
An Israeli security reporter with close military ties writes that the air force is preparing to take advantage of these new developments:
…Sources in the IDF believe that now is opportune time to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Various units of the armed forces are now preparing plans they will present to the political echelon [i.e. Netanyahu] laying out Israel’s capabilities of conducting such an attack.
This offers Israel a tremendous opportunity to strike a blow against Iranian military and nuclear targets. Nor will it resemble the child’s play tit-for-tat exchanges over the past few months. This would be a massive attack with hundreds of aircraft plus Israel’s full missile arsenal.
To give you an idea of the potential scope: in the past few days the IAF flew 350 aircraft carrying 2,000 munitions attacking 500 Syrian military targets. Any Israeli attack would be on an even larger scale. It would wreak havoc on entire categories of targets from military to government to civilian. As it has done in Gaza and Lebanon, it will make no distinction between military and civilian targets.
Given the genocide and aggression Israel has perpetrated on Gaza and Lebanon over the past year, there is no longer any constraint on Israel’s part. It has seen success from its massive slaughter in those two countries. It sees how profoundly it has promoted its interests in the region. In other words, aggression pays.
As I’ve reported here, Israeli forces have invaded both Lebanon and Syria to create a “buffer zone” preventing (purportedly) militants from threatening Israeli territory. These occupations are not temporary as the Biden administration falsely claims. A Haaretz headline reads: “The IDF prepares to remain in Syria for days, perhaps years.” Clearly, the IDF will not stay there for “days.” “Years” is not only more likely, but certain. Another report says:
The army has taken control of key locations several kilometers from the border [sic]. It points out that it is speaking of a temporary situation. But as of this moment, the assessment is that this is a relatively long period of time.
‘Temporary’ and a ‘long period of time’ are not equivalent. They are opposites. This is yet another example of Israel’s escalated aggressive posture toward its frontline neighbors. No longer will it accept a status quo in which it suffers tit-for-tat attacks from enemies. Instead, it will go in with both guns blazing and wreak havoc on every living thing that gets in its way. And no one will dare to challenge it.
Unlike the Biden administration, which exerted at least some minor impact in restraining Israel, Trump will give Israel carte blanche to pursue maximalist military adventures, which will wreak severe damage to Iran.
The military is couching its plans for attack as a preventive measure to block an Iranian bomb. It correctly believes that in the new regional order, Iran will feel much more vulnerable. And therefore will be likely to resort to the nuclear option as means of protecting itself. Such an attack would, at least temporarily, end such a threat to Israel. Ayatollah Khamenei and his military advisors are certainly calculating the various scenarios and outcomes if they were to go nuclear.
Those parties which funded and armed the Syrian forces which toppled Assad (including Israel) and destroyed Iran’s Axis of Resistance, will have only themselves to blame if Iran does pursue this path. When you drive an enemy to the wall, they will resort to extraordinary and unforeseen measures. Israel claims it wants to prevent Iran from nuclearization. Yet it has done precisely the opposite. Now, it may have to deal with a hostile nuclear power right in its own backyard. It may also have provoked all-out regional war.
Trump and the lessons of US interventionism
Donald Trump proclaims himself an anti war candidate who wants to get out of Syria. If he does this, it vastly increases the possibility of renewed civil war among the various Syrian opposition forces. If he stays, he may be putting US troops in harm’s way in the event that Syria turns into a chaotic mess. Trump may, against his instincts be drawn unwillingly into precisely the position that he opposes.
This has always been the impact of US interventionism. The opposite of what we expect and want, always happens, to our chagrin.
Israel has destroyed much of Syria’s military capabilities. This is reminiscent of the US destroying Iraq’s military and police forces in Iraq, along with the Baathist party and its network. The result was years-long sectarian bloodbath. The US, in welcoming Israel’s massive air campaign, has set the stage for a defenseless Syria, unable to protect its territory and interests, against the interventionism of neighboring states like Turkey, Israel and even Lebanon (if Hezbollah reconstitutes itself).
It’s in the interest of the Syrian people to have a fully functioning state. If not, it will devolve into a fragmented dysfunctional mess. That may be what Israel wishes: a weak, dismembered Syria micro-state.
Israeli settlers plan theft of Syrian, Lebanese territory
Israel, which has seen a takeover of all its national institutions by radical settlers, will now see them establishing settlements in former Lebanese and Syria territory. Military aggression has awakened the territorial thirst of the maximalists seeking to project Israel domination of the region. These are not mystics or even messianists in a traditional sense. Their religion is not prophetic Judaism. Nor is it Judaism as most of the Jewish world practices it. They are on a messianic holy war to vanquish any Arabs who stand in their way. Total Jewish domination is their path to messianic redemption. Mass violence and even genocide is the way to achieve it.
Theirs is a militant movement with a veneer of religious fervor. Their goals are not fulfilling Biblical commandments, but political power as the dominant force in the region. This is not a religious vision, but a nakedly political one. The world should never grant any credibility to their claims of divine sanction. They are nothing but radical arsonists.
Seconds before M.A.D.
… not just Iran … Joe wants a blow against the evil empire … #vlad 😡
Doomsday madness.
A lot more to write … so little time left. . ☢️
From Scriptures and Dead Sea scrolls … the Book of Esther as our guide … Haman and Amalek are before you …
Ahead of the next attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran … you have been warned …
ICJ Alleged war criminal Netanyahu addresses Iranian citizens before next phase of war
https://www.newsrael.com/posts/2z5sz0zrght
Signed
Your Bibi ⁉️
Throughout its history, Israel has so overhyped Jews into interpreting almost anything as an existential attack against Jews that now Israel only has to say it is “defending itself” and the blind supporters march in lockstep with it. So, Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iran can all be attacked as a “defensive” measure and the overwhelming majority of its citizens and all of the diaspora blind supporters will cheer it on. They will go to Israel to get into uniform and kill a few Arabs themselves or, send them money as did the ones who sent $300.,000 to help snipers get better equipment.
Biden vs. Trump? I doubt of Trump will be able to give Israel additional support of any significance. Israel’s genocide of Palestinians and its other invasions are all underwritten by us with Biden’s blessing. If Israel wishes to attack Iran (again) it will do so and without prior clearance from the US (as usual) so the US can make meaningless sounds of “regret” and continue supplying weaponry and money to a country that is proving itself to be the most evil nation in the Middle East today.
The flight distance from Israel to Iranian targets and back is over 4000 kilometres using any route. The likelihood that any country (Iraq, Saudi Arabia or Turkey) will allow Israeli planes to land, arm and tank fuel on their air fields is zero. Syria’spresent situation did not chance that geographical reality. Only Syria’s air defence and radars are destroyed. With Russian and Chinese help Iran’s own air defence has become only stronger after the last Israeli failed attempt.
It is high time that Israelis stop make naive “plans” (=dreams) how they destroy “nuclear” Iran in the style of Gaza, Lebanon and now Syria, based on the simple belief, that Iran will and can not do anything in revenge. What if Iran destroys Dimona’s “secret” underground parts with several hypersonic missiles and destroys Intel’s factories in Israel? Israel then has a real own “nuclear problem” and the international “money” (and skilled Jewish workforce) will flee out of Israel without ever returning.
The Iranian counter reactions will also shut the Persian Gulf and the world’s trade and financial order will collapse without that oil and gas comming from there. Then it will not pleasant to be an Israeli (or American) when angry, freeing and hungry masses seek for the “guilty”. Surely Israel’s (and US) attacks will damage Iran, but what happens next will hurt much more Israel and its mental vassal USA.
@SimoHurtta:
I’ve written here about an airfield in Azerbaijan which the IAF uses. So the northern route to Iran offers all this. Plus, the IAF has several large Boeing refueling tankers. I believe I read that the IAF did attack Iran directly with war planes. Keep in mind in that regard that missiles can be launched by a plane from a considerable distance from their target.
Israel destroyed major components of Iran’s air defense infrastructure. It will take some time to restore it.
That being said, any attack on Iran will cause a massive and damaging retaliation, as you wrote.
Azerbaijan route
Transporting over 100 Israeli fighter planes to some airfield in Azerbaijan and the needed weapons for several raids plus reserving the needed amounts of fuel and Israeli personal there is a massive logistic operation and takes at best months. No way that Turkey and especially Azerbaijan would allow that happen. Russia, China and Iran would see that preparation and would react.
Israel has had in Azerbaijan the possibility to perform spying operations with drones, but that is all it is allowed to do.
Let us remember that Israel lost in the 1973 war 103 planes. USA lost in Vietnam nearly 10 thousand aircraft (planes and helicopters). From those times the air defense has developed a giant step. Even in Syria Israel very rarely during the past years entered Syrian airspace when Syrian army was still “working”.
Air tankers
Surely Israel has refueling tankers, but the distance form Israel to Iranian targets is about 2000 kilometers. And the planes must go back to Israel. Let us remember that Israel lost in the 1973 war 103 planes. USA lost in Vietnam nearly 10 thousand aircraft (planes and helicopters). From those times the air defense has developed a giant step. The “problem” is that wars in past decades have been against those who have no serious defense.
Iran’s air defense was severely damaged by Israel
That is said only by Israeli and US generals, most military and intelligence analysts say that Israel’s attack did not damage much Iran’s air defense and industries. Only the first wave of Israeli attack was performed, second and third were canceled by Israel. Israeli planes shot their missiles from outside towards Iran. That can not destroy much of the Iranian defense. Israel has informed during the last year already several times, that Hamas is “destroyed” and Gaza is “cleaned”. What Israel says can not be taken seriously, neither the US air force generals, who compete to get lucrative seat in the administration of US companies producing those planes. We Finns have seen those US advertisement operations from near, because we were conned to buy those F-35 planes and what our own air force generals say and where they work (= earn much money) after retirement.
USA has now no aircraft carriers near Israel and Iran. The question is why. Why is naturally because the present days’ missiles made aircraft carriers completely useless against developed enemies.
The other point to remember is, that it is easier to shoot down an air fighter than shooting down a very fast missile.
I’m trading your posts for quite a while and I’m missing here you claim from other blogs where you wrote Iran will never use nuclear weapons.
Do you truly believe that? If so, why do you think Iran sinks billions into creating a treat based on it?
@ Danny: I never said Iran would never use nuclear weapons.
Ayatollah Khameini issued a fatwa declaring that Islam prohibits the use of nuclear weapons. A fatwa is the highest form of religious commandment in Shia Islam. So I take it very seriously.