Hezbollah Drone Penetrates Israel, Films Top Secret Military Sites Video exposes military bases, naval installations, Iron Dome batteries, and intelligence facilities

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A Hezbollah drone flew freely over Israel last week, filming top-secret military installations. The Lebanese group released a 10-minute video of the footage. It features crystal-clear images of Israeli military bases, the Rafael weapons plant, naval installations, Iron Dome batteries, and intelligence facilities.

In response, the IDF claimed that it had detected the UAV and monitored it throughout its flight.  It said that it didn’t shoot it down for fear of injuring civilians on the ground.  This isn’t credible, as it flew over the waters of Haifa port, where a shoot-down would not have injured anyone.

The IDF believed it was prepared for every possible threat from the Lebanese militia. Nevertheless, this drone flew unimpeded for hours over every possible sensitive location within its flight range.

Israel has never taken drones seriously as a weapon of war.  It viewed them merely as a reconnaissance tool, posing no physical danger. Nor has it developed defense which could shoot them down. The war in Ukraine should have alerted the IDF that drones, often simple over-the-counter commercial models, have developed capabilities it has never previously encountered on the battlefield. In addition, in past weeks Hezbollah missiles have struck an Iron Dome battery and military bases in northern Israel.

Not only does the drone foray show the weakness of Israel’s intelligence and military preparedness in the north, it echoes the multiple security failures on 10/7. Including a just released IDF report written only weeks before 10/7, which explicitly warns Hamas was planning the massive operation it conducted.  Israelis may view their security forces as the most capable in the world, but these mishaps indicate otherwise.

A report of an IDF document about military preparedness on the northern front, assumes that in the event of war Hezbollah could invade and conquer significant territory, including settlements and army bases, before the main military force arrives.  The report was presented to the army command a month before 10/7.  Presumably, since then the northern forces have been reinforced.  Nevertheless, the strategic assumptions on which the document was based appear deeply flawed in light of Hamas’ operation.

Hezbollah’s message is: if you want war, we will give you war. This will not be a recapitulation of the last war in 2006. It will be something much different. Something that will shock and unnerve you. We will strike at the heart of your country. We will strike places you thought impregnable.

No doubt Israel can inflict massive damage on Lebanon. It can kill thousands, perhaps tens of thousands as it has in Gaza. But at what price?  It has lost 700 soldiers on and after 10/7. Can it afford to lose 5,000 or 10,000 in a Lebanese quagmire?

Since 10/7 a number of Israel’s senior defense officials have advocated attacking Hezbollah before Hamas. They want a war. They want to humble Hezbollah in order to humble, in turn, its closest ally and patron, Iran. Doing so is no longer a foregone conclusion. But in fact, it may be Israel, ranked as the 17th most powerful army in the world, that is humbled.