Breaking: Netanyahu Lied, Gazans Died: Most Hamas Fighters Now Outside Rafah

An Israeli media report (original Ynet report) undermines Bibi Netanyahu’s claim that Israel must invade Rafah in order to deal a final blow to Hamas. In fact, according to Israeli security sources, less than half the number of fighters Netanyahu claims, actually remain there.  He has said that four brigades remain in Hamas’ last bastion.  Eliminating them, he claims, will achieve final victory.

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However, most of Hamas force that was in Rafah has moved to Khan Yunis  and other refugee camps in the center of Gaza.  This is territory that IDF occupied and then left to fight in other places.  In other words, as soon as the Israeli army leaves territory in Gaza, Hamas returns to it to fight there.  All of its underground infrastructure, previously abandoned, remains intact and ready for renewed military action.

In fact, Hamas killed five IDF soldiers several days ago in northern Gaza. Such attacks force the IDF to return to areas it had once cleared of Hamas presence.

It’s a game of military whack-a-mole and Hamas can outlast Israel.  Everywhere the IDF masses its forces to  strike a blow, Hamas withdraws in order to fight another day. This is a typical strategy of rapid movement in order to avoid direct combat against superior conventional forces.

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Even the corridor the IDF created separating northern Gaza from the south has become as porous as a sieve.  The army has made no attempt to maintain it as a barrier and Hamas penetrates it at will.

Of the total number of five brigades, only two battalions totally roughly 1,200 men, are still in Rafah.  Hamas began the war with a 30,000-strong force. An Israeli security source confirmed to me that at least 16,000 remain.  Almost all of its fighters have left Rafah.  Even if the IDF eliminates all 1,200 remaining, that is less than 7% of all remaining Hamas fighters. In short, there is no military purpose in invading Rafah except lengthening the war.

UPDATE: The BBC casts doubt on the count of 14,000 Hamas dead.  It notes that Israel counts almost all adult males as fighters. We know that’s not the case.  This means significantly more than 16,000 fighters remain.  Reuters quotes a Hamas source saying that only 6,000 of its fighters had been killed as of February 29th.  If we extrapolate that number to today by correlating it with the overall Palestinian death count today, that would mean that 6,900 fighters have died.

Euro Med Monitor offers an even lower death count.  On December 29th, it said that 2,300 Hamas fighters died.  Extrapolating that number to today would mean 2,700 fighters died. I believe an accurate count would be somewhere between those two numbers.  But I would give special consideration to Hamas’ number because presumably it would have more access to casualty counts.  If the total number of Hamas soldiers is 30,000, then Israel has killed only 25% of its fighting force in seven months of fighting.  At this rate, it would take nearly two years to eliminate the rest.  These figures further confirm that Israel cannot eliminate Hamas, no matter what its strategy.

US intelligence has determined that Yahya Sinwar isn’t even in Rafah. He’s never been in Rafah.  So much for wiping out Hamas’ leadership..He is in a secure tunnel somewhere under Khan Yunis, an area the IDF had already cleared and where they’ve been forced to return to fight again.  Hamas’ survival despite the body blows it’s endured, deals yet another blow to Israeli strategy.  As the Ynet report linked above notes, in order to achieve victory: “Hamas only has to survive longer underground than the IDF can stay above it.”

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Netayahu lies

One way in which Israel could have blunted Hamas is by creating an Arab civilian-military authority to take control of such areas. The US has proposed that the Palestinian Authority play this role. Though this option is almost universally derided due to the PA’s dysfunction.

Netanyahu too has urged the creation of a pan-Arab occupation consisting of UAE, Egyptian and Saudi forces. But as in most things, Netanyahu lies.  He appears not to have checked that out with the supposed participants, since UAE rejected Netayahu’s claim and said it hadn’t even been consulted before he issued it.  Netanyahu himself is preventing any transition from Israeli military presence to non-Israeli occupation.  That latter, the US believes would be necessary before the war could end.

Prolonging it is in Netanyahu’s interest, since he will be toppled once it ends: the overwhelming majority of Israelis blame him for the 10/7 catastrophe and its aftermath.

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Biden: end Israeli arms shipments now!

The Israeli leader has launched a Rafah invasion against US warnings. Ynet reports the US public stance on this operation–that it approves eliminating Hamas, but only if there is a humanitarian plan for civilians there–is different than the private one it articulated to Israel. It opposes any Rafah invasion under any terms.  Clearly, Israel is violating those terms. In addition, the Netanyahu justification for an invasion is contradicted by the report that Hamas forces have left Rafah.

Given that the IDF will not eliminate Hamas through a Rafah invasion, and that the former has commenced such an invasion against our will, there remains no justification for continuing arms shipments to Israel.

In fact, Secretary of State Blinken reflects the increasingly explicit US opposition to Israeli war plans:

Israeli tactics have meant “a horrible loss of life of innocent civilians” but failed to neutralize Hamas leaders and fighters and could drive a lasting insurgency.

…Blinken underscored that the United States believes Israeli forces should “get out of Gaza,”

When will Biden concede what is clear as day, and stop the flow of US weapons fueling the genocide?