17 thoughts on “Does Attack by Iranian Ally in Yemen Portend Similar Ones Against Israel and U.S.? – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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  1. This is the first time I have ever read such a balanced piece an an Israeli blog. From my perspective its right on the money.

    Bottom-line, Trump/Netanyahu etc. are really playing with fire, pursuing a “cowboy” type mentality and fundamentally non-productive, policies vis-a-vis Iran. It should be obvious to anyone reading the article, that Iran’s core strategy is asymmetric.Its almost like playing wack-a-mole. You hit in Syria, they pop up in Yemen, hit Yemen, they pop up in Lebanon. Hit Lebanon, they pop up in Iraq, etc. etc. So, ‘hitting’ is useless, a completely different (more sophisticated) strategy is required. And ‘hitting’, has polarized the situation, led to the rise of the hard liners in Iran, reinforced its proxies, forced Iran into alliances with others – made the situation even worse and more dangerous. And, most importantly, not only has it NOT worked, Iran’s mullahs have in fact become much stronger in the process (not weaker) – not just inside Iran, but across the region.

    If diminishing the Tehran regime’s influence is the objective, then this would suggest that exactly ‘opposite’ policies would be much more effective. You get more bees with honey than a fly squatter!

    But, I have a theory, what ‘they’ really want is for the Mullah regime to stay in place and become a bigger menace. It leads to arm sales, and Israelis being scared into voting for Netanyahu (it helps him politically), led to new relations with Arab states (UAE, KSA, etc. because of Iran being a ‘common’ enemy), etc.

    Okay, but one day Iran will be irreversibly too strong (arguably today), and then its over. Really over! Iran has 2 million proxy militias in the region. A well healed, very experienced, well trained military. Contrast them to the rather over-weight, poor performing, pampered militaries in KSA, UAE etc. who haven’t been able to ‘beat’ a bunch of mountain dwelling sheep herders in Yemen. And let me just add that if Israel steps in to make up for these failing Arab militaries or regimes i.e. gets bogged down in Yemen, it will lose its eye on Israel itself i.e. make Israel itself very vulnerable. Its exactly what Iran and its proxies want. Its what their asymmetric strategy is for.

    So now what? 40 years of stupid policies will blow back – one day. Iran was Israel’s best ally in the region once. Iranians actually defended and protected Jews throughout history and even during the Yom Kippur War. And all Israel has been doing is reinforcing the Mullahs at the expense of the Iranian people and eventually at the expense of Israel itself. Polarization only serves the Mullahs and undermines Israel. There must be normalization, peace, good relations … and by reinforcing and aligning with ordinary Iranian citizens… the days of the Mullahs regime’s death will be accelerated. Iranians will take care of them with their own hands, at the right time.

    1. there will never be a conversation , it revolves basically at shia vs sunni
      once you’ve taken sides you’re compromised
      since the iran revolution israel has been on the sunni side so has the us
      the iran peace agreement was the ugliest best way to square the circle of the religions
      once you open the pandora’s box the sky is the limit.
      the , “so now what” is the 40 cents question –
      it is easy to destroy a pact and impose sanctions, there won’t be a regime change, saving political face is the name of the game
      to restart an olive branch is always needed and within in a wording that both parties can brag as victory is on their side to pamper locals.
      can anyone in trumps admin be called a communicator. one please
      canon builders are a dime a dozen nations bridge builder not so much

    1. @ Sepp: Saudi Arabia has a “layered” missile defence system as well. It hasn’t stopped the Houthis from penetrating it. I suggest that neither you nor Israeli military planners be smug and presume that Israel’s defenses are impenetrable.

      1. Israel is coming to that point where their arrogance will lead them to making the “ultimate” gamble and it will blow up in their face. America will pick up a number of the survivors, just like after Vietnam ended in fiasco, but many will end up in funny schools where they will spit on their former flag and have struggle sessions on the failures of their ruined former country. If not the schools, then endless rounds of beatings for captured police and IDF officers, then finally they will be Chikatilo’ed (execution by sudden shooting after walking down a hallway.) The smart Israeli is the “escaped” Israeli, people who will move elsewhere before the fiasco.

  2. Assassinations reached further than ME states of course.

    “They’d been following him for months. They’d been monitoring his every move. Yet as he drove to his Brussels apartment on March 22nd, 1990, Dr. Gerald Vincent Bull (Canadian by birth) had no idea that tonight he was the target of a hit squad. It was definitely a complicated operation by a state intelligence organization and carried out by some 80 people, was outstretched for almost two years.”

    1. While he was an asset to many governments, he was also a liability, and suspicion can fall on the CIA, MI6, Chilean, Syrian, South African, even Iraqi sources. Most suspicion however tends to fall on either Iran or Isreal both of which would fall within range of the super gun or improved missiles.
      The murder was never solved and remains another mystery in the life of a mysterious man.

  3. The Arab nations are lucrative allies of a sovereign Great Britain …
    In July UK International Trade Secretary Liz Truss announced that new licenses will once again be issued to export arms to Riyadh, arguing, “There is not a clear risk that the export of arms and military equipment to Saudi Arabia might be used in the commission of a serious violation of IHL”

  4. [comment deleted: anti-Iran smears are not permitted here. Nor does your opinion on any subject count as credible without supporting evidence. Read and follow the comment rules.]

  5. dear sepp

    i said it in previous message, no one will attack not via air or water or ground israel
    that would give a clear thread as to who is the perpetrator and reason to continue the tit for tat
    data is gold.
    no further than this morning a cyber security co/ mentioned that in the last 3 months israel amongst other has seen a huge spike in hacking it is “mentioned” that iran may be the root, but again not quite sure.
    several large companies in israel have been opened to blackmail. so what is cheaper waste huge monies in rockets and bombs or pay a fat guy sitting in the back of a mosque and hacking the heck out of israel water companies or insurance or banks. which would cause more damage.
    why is russia building A new rocket while investing millions in hackers that have destroyed millions of american secrets, read the latest microsoft bulletin regarding the latest intrusion, they still dont know how far or deep.
    i ask again why is everybody looking at the clouds to see if its going to rain while the toilets are being overflooded
    those attacks still live in broken down countries or militias. because they do not have internet infrastructure, same in saudi their huge refineries are vulnerable as sitting ducks in the desert begging to be attacked, saudi economy is not worth attacking
    the saudi riyal is pegged to usd ergo fake value, whereas shekel floats and is now one of the two most seeked strong currency, which is worth attacking again.
    mullahs are not stupid they know where is the best value for the bang is
    iraq is also broken country it doesnt count

  6. 2400 Died in Obama’s Assassination Program

    Since Obama’s inauguration in 2009, the CIA has launched 330 strikes on Pakistan – his predecessor, President George Bush, conducted 51 strikes in four years. And in Yemen, Obama has opened a new front in the secret drone war.

    Yemen Saada province: Al-Awlaki family targeted, 41 killed by US cruise missile strike includes 22 children – Dec. 23, 2009.

  7. Acting SecDef Miller issued a new statement changing course on Sunday.

    “Due to the recent threats issued by Iranian leaders against President Trump and other US government officials, I have ordered the USS Nimitz to halt its routine redeployment,” said the statement.

  8. Who, other than Richard, claims the Houtis are responsible for this attack? No one.
    Not the Saudis. Not the Yemen government. And not the Houtis, who’ve never been shy to claim responsibility for a successful attack.

    By claiming, the Houtis are responsible, Richard deflects attention from other likely culprits such as disgruntled Yemeni government factions, and of course, deflect attention away from Iran.

    1. @ Forrest:

      Who, other than Richard, claims the Houtis are responsible for this attack? No one.

      Oh, I don’t know. Maybe the actual Yemeni prime minister whose cabinet was attacked? Maybe he blames the Houthi?

      CAIRO (AP) — Yemen’s prime minister on Saturday said that a missile attack on the airport in Aden was meant “to eliminate” the country’s new government as it arrived in the key southern city — a daring assault which he blamed on Iran-backed rebels.

      …Saeed repeated his government’s accusations that Yemen’s Houthi rebels were responsible for the missile attack on the airport and a drone assault on the palace, shortly after the premier and his Cabinet were transferred there.

      In your desperation to find a Gotcha, you got carried away with yourself. You’ve gotta bring your A game to this hasbara thing you’re doing. I’d say this a C-level game.

      1. [comment deleted: off-topic. Comments not directly related to the individual post will be deleted. A further warning: read the comment rules and respect them. If you don’t you may be moderated.]

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