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Today, four Democratic senators announced their support for the Iran nuclear deal. As of yesterday, there were only 38 Yes votes, which meant that Pres. Obama would’ve had to exercise a veto to defeat the GOP-Israel Lobby campaign against the agreement. Early today, three senators (Ron Wyden, Gary Peters and Richard Blumenthal) announced almost simultaneously they would support the deal, which put it over the top. That gave the Democrats 41 votes, enough to sustain a filibuster. That would preclude Republicans from bringing it to a vote on the Senate floor. Later in the day, Sen. Maria Cantwell (one of my senators, alas) announced she too was joining the band wagon and would vote Aye. What took you so long, Sen. Cantwell?
Congratulations to the two major groups which lobbied hardest for the deal, the National Iranian American Council and J Street. Also, a hearty mazel tov to 42 courageous senators who refused to toe the Lobby line.
The deal is done. The agreement will be approved. Sanctions will end. Iran will significantly restrain its nuclear program for the next fifteen years. This gives the world a chance to build normative relations with Iran. It gives Iran a chance to prove that it should be welcomed among the nations. I can only hope that neither side squanders this huge opportunity to transform four decades of killing and hate into a pragmatic, forward-looking relationship devoid of sloganeering and pandering (on both sides).
The neocon revanchists have not given up. They know no shame. Their policies may be utterly discredited. But they spring back to life, like the proverbial Jack in the Box clown. Dick Cheney told an American Enterprise Institute audience that the deal was “madness.” I, on the other hand, think Cheney’s plan to remake the Middle East in his image was madness. And we’re still paying for his megalomaniacal delusions to this day.
Bibi “Never Say Die” Netanyahu told a closed-door Likud meeting today that two-thirds of the American people opposed the deal. Apparently, he confused the fact that 58 Republicans (which isn’t two-thirds of the Senate) were voting No, with polling of the American public. When respondents are asked only whether they support or oppose the deal, a plurality (but not majority) oppose it. But when the contents of the agreement are explained, a majority (not a plurality) support it.
Bibi has not given up either. The battle may be lost, but there’s always another to fight. He will return with proposals in Congress to reintroduce sanctions. There are rumors Ben Cardin is already drafting such legislation. And yes, the Israeli prime minister does, through his Lobby proxies, propose, write and lobby for pro-Israel legislation.
Regarding new sanctions, all I can say is: bring it on. If the U.S. wants to make itself the laughingstock of the world by going in the opposite direction of every other nation, be my guest. Government officials and business executives from across the globe will be flocking to Tehran to negotiate deals on everything from food to oil. Billions worth of deals promise to be signed in the coming months. We Americans, on the other hand, will be left holding the (empty) bag. We will have nothing to show for our efforts (of negotiating the Iran deal).
How long do you think that will last? How long before some corporate CEO wakes up and says: wait a minute, we’ve been had. Germans, Britons, French, Russians, Chinese have taken us to the cleaners. We’ll be last in line and get the leftovers, if there are any. Did I say “laughingstock?”
Did the Lobby Win or Lose?
There’s been a great deal of debate about the role of Aipac and the Israel Lobby in the campaign. Some pundits believe the loss will harm the overall perception of the Lobby as an invincible power on matters of U.S. Mideast policy. Others say it will not harm the Lobby. I’m torn on the question. But I think that 42 Democratic senators defying the Lobby on a question that was posed as a life and death matter by Israel’s leadership, is significant. Netanyahu himself has turned support for Israel into a divisive issue, when previous Israeli governments have taken pains to pursue a bipartisan approach. Aipac’s kamikaze act on behalf of the deal can only widen this split, with Democrats becoming more emboldened in their approach.
For example, Rep. Betty McCollum, publicly proposed that Israel be held accountable for the cold-blooded murder of two Palestinian teenagers during a Nakba Day protest near Ofer Prison this year:
“…These killings exemplify, Israel’s treatment of Palestinian youth in the Occupied West Bank is unacceptable and must not be tolerated by the U.S. or the international community,” McCollum wrote. “The murders of Nadeem Nawara and Mohammad Daher only highlight a brutal system of occupation that devalues and dehumanizes Palestinian children. It is time for a strong and unequivocal statement of U.S. commitment to the human rights for Palestinian children living under Israeli occupation.”
McCollum also called on the State Department to investigate whether the 38th Company of the Israeli Border Police — the unit that killed Nadeem and Mohammad — violated the “Leahy Law.” If such a violation occurred, the unit “should be ineligible to receive future U.S. military aid and training and all border policemen involved in this incident should be denied U.S. visas as stipulated by the law.”
McCollum is undoubtedly one of the most progressive members on Israel-Palestine. In fact, back in 2006, her chief of staff was told by an Aipac operative that McCollum was a “supporter of terrorism” because she refused to vote for a bill the pro-Israel group was touting. Nevertheless, neither she nor any other Congress member would ever in the past have demanded Israel be held accountable for such killings. They would’ve been viewed as internal Israeli matters not appropriate for outside intervention.
This is a courageous thing to do for anyone in her shoes. Undoubtedly, she will pay the price. She will face a primary challenger who is well-funded with Lobby cash. Or some such way of voicing its displeasure will be felt.
The point is that there are subtle tectonic shifts happening. The Lobby remains powerful, but no longer invincible. Though I profoundly disagree with J Street on much of its political and lobbying agenda, it too has put a few dents in Aipac’s fenders. This is a slow process. But it leads inexorably to the same place Israel itself appears headed: political irrelevance and decrepitude.
Cheney just thinking about his oil assets …
○ 1967 War – Israel – Rothschild – Cheney – Spoils
Doesn’t Murdoch do quail hunting?
@ Oui: I am positively allergic to references to the Rothschilds. It is almost always code for anti-Semitism. You can make your points without using this trope.
Strictly from a company press statement:
○ Business and financial leaders Lord Rothschild and Rupert Murdoch invest in Genie Oil & Gas (NJ) .. advisor Dick Cheney [pdf]
Developing shale oil in the state of Colorado and in Israel’s occupied territories in West Bank and the Golan Heights.
○ Israel’s PM Office Claims Victory In Iran Nuclear Deal Defeat
“This gives the world a chance to build normative relations with Iran. It gives Iran a chance to prove that it should be welcomed among the nations”
Yes but at the same time chanting that the US is the ‘great Satan’ and that the Zionist entity must be annihilated.
@ tishby: Israel is a far more lethal threat to Iran than the other way around. How will Iran “annihilate” Israel? With ballistic missiles it doesn’t have? Warheads it hasn’t developed? How will Israel annihilate Iran? With ballistic missiles it has aplenty. Warheads it has numbering at least 200. Dophin subs capable of firing nuclear missiles & patrolling the waters of the Gulf.
Get real, bud.
” Yes but at the same time chanting that the US is the ‘great Satan’ ”
Yawn. You’ve got no ground to whine about “why does Iran (in part) have issues with America?”
People who take the hardline camp who’s most active in that kind of partisanism to be the “true face of Iran” are idiots. If Iran wasn’t a politically multifaceted entity interested in normalizing relations and a return to more regular status in the international community, then things wouldn’t be as they are right now.
” and that the Zionist entity must be annihilated.”
Yawn. The only party throwing around direct military threats is Israel, repeatedly.
All the while lying about some fictional Iranian plan to “exterminate all the Jews” that only has stock in the heads of Israel’s worst, no where else.
@Kyle
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/10/world/middleeast/iran-ayatollah-khamenei-israel-will-not-exist.html?_r=0
Why is it that the leaders of Iran are the only leaders on the world stage calling for the destruction of another country. Even Kim Il Jung is less rhetorical.
Kyle. You claim to be an Arabist, so why are you carrying water for Iran? Iran is the enemy of the Arabs.
I don’t get you.
Mitchell, maybe not everyone is as obsessed with dividing people into distinct ethnicities that must be at war with each other as you?
@ Mitchell Blood: You’ve just posted an outright lie, which is not permitted under the comment rules. Iran has never called for Israel’s destruction. If you ever attribute false claims concerning Iran in future, you will be moderated.
I didn’t post a lie, I linked a quote, which reads:
Ayatollah Khamenei wrote. “I am telling you, first, you will not be around in 25 years’ time, and God willing, there will be no Zionist regime in 25 years. Second, during this period, the spirit of fighting, heroism and jihad will keep you worried every moment.”
Richard. You tell me. What is the meaning of Khamenei’s quote?
@Mitchell: He is saying he foresees an Israel not ruled by Jewish supremacists. An Israel in which power is shared democratically between Palestinians & Jews. An Israel in which every citizen has equal rights w/o regard to religion or ethnicity. I have no problem saying I’d like the current Israeli regime to collapse & be replaced by the vision I outlined above. Just like I’d like to see the Iranian clerical regime disappear in 25 yrs or sooner.
Mr Blood what means if an Israeli Jewish leader had said: God willing there will not be a Natzi regime in X year? Would that have meant killing all Germans and whipping Germany from the map? Israeli Jewish leaders have for decades constantly demanded the ayatollah’s regime to be erased. Demanding a less liked political / religious movements, which zionism, natzism, communism, ayatollahs style etc are, to vanish is rather common. Zionism is not equal to all Jews (or even to Israel) like communism was not equal to all Russians and Chinese.
This constant deliberate propagandist claim that Iranians demand all Jews to be “holocausted” is rather absurd.
[Comment deleted: off topic]
○ Gohmert Gives Netanyahu Book From End Times Fanatic
○ Tea Party Republican: Netanyahu the next King David
US Congress and American exceptionalism?? Leadership candidate for planet earth and its population of 7.4 billion! The USA represents about 4.5% of the total.
I wonder what Iran is going to do with the assets once they’ve been unfrozen?
I wonder what the IRGC will do with their cut?
“I wonder what Iran is going to do with the assets once they’ve been unfrozen?”
Not what Nutandyahoo and AIPAC and Israel’s worst, who routinely demonize and dehumanize Iranians as a collective, screech that they’re going to do.
Idiotic leading question, I think. Carry on with the caricature of Iran as a giant Khameini head or “the new Hitler”, I guess.
” I wonder what the IRGC will do with their cut?”
Keep your idiotic over-hyped Arab-hating soldiers out of Lebanon, stop violating Lebanese sovereignty on a regular basis, and you won’t have to worry about direct action from the Hezb, let alone agents of the IRGC.
I would say do the same as far as your idiotic overhyped Arab-hating soldiers and the Kahanist “settler” movement goes in the Palestinian West Bank, but that’s probably asking too much, isn’t it?
@Mitchell: Iran has huge unmet social needs & a fairly enlightened president who understands if he doesn’t meet those needs he will lose the next election. Unlike your PM who doesn’t give a flying f=%k about the 99%.
When you start worrying about what the IDF does with the $20 billion (not including the black budget public never hears about) it gets every yr., I’ll start worrying about the IRG’s cut of the sanctions revenue.
” Iran has huge unmet social needs & a fairly enlightened president ”
Yeah. The unmet social needs of the Assad regime.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4699809,00.html
Now that Iran is partnered with Putin’s Russia in Syria, Iran has given up completely on disengaging and misery of the Syrian people will grow exponentially.
The passage of the ‘Iran Deal’ is nothing to ‘kvell’ over; which ‘Deal’ can be undone by the next (Republican?) President on day one.
http://opiniojuris.org/2015/09/10/president-rubiowalkertrumpwhomever-can-indeed-terminate-the-iran-deal-on-day-one/
As far as Congresswoman McCollum goes, the Leahy Law that she cites to, has an exception:
b) Exception
The prohibition in subsection (a) shall not apply if the Secretary determines and reports to the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate, the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives, and the Committees on Appropriations that the government of such country is taking effective steps to bring the responsible members of the security forces unit to justice.
I think those steps have already been take. A soldier and an IDF officer are being prosecuted by the State of Israel for their involvement in the shooting death of the Arab youth.