11 thoughts on “Bibi Orders Dagan, Diskin Investigated for Leaking Plans of Iran Attack – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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  1. Three possibilities:

    (1) Israel is really the most dangerous threat to the world and will sink us into the worst war ever executed by mankind – the appearance that Israel is at ends about the attack is an illusion intended to cover an imminent strike;

    (2) This is a means of distracting from a very real Palestinian issue that Israel can’t escape, in which case this would be a bandaid solution to a gaping wound, and Israel does not intend to attack Iran in actuality; or,

    (3) Israeli leadership really are at odds over whether or not to strike Israel.

    I tend to doubt number one and three because the transparency of the threats indicate that Israel has no intention of attacking Iran (you don’t shout this from the rooftops, specifying what you will attack, when and how to media). Number two seems to be the most likely. From a top-level view, we know that Israel cannot feasibly delay or stop Iran’s nuclear program. The unjust Israeli strike would give Iran proper justification to defend itself and make a bee line towards developing a nuclear weapon, in fact, thereby speeding up any process that SUPPOSEDLY exists. Also, Israeli actions, both covert and overt, indicate that their intelligence in Iran is dismal and outsourced to the shotty MEK. I tend to doubt they would even know where nuclear facilities for weaponization would be, hypothetically speaking. Iran is the size of UK, Spain, France and Germany combined. Good luck finding a needle, underground, in a haystack.

    Iran also recently endorsed and successfully passed a 107-ZionistStooge vote in the UN demanding that the last three NPT reviews’ suggestions (Israel come clean about its nukes and sign the NPT) be followed, particularly regarding nuclear disarmament. Thus, there is virtually no backing for such an attack throughout the world, even among commonly die-hard Israeli-supporting factions.

    1. Your argument dismissing 1 and especially 3 is missing the point – it’s not Bibi or even Barak shouting from rooftops that they are going to hit but those opposed to it, like Dagan (who I am beginning to like more and more at least on this). Ok it COULD all be an elaborate bluff but as RS pointed out it’s not very credible, the Mullahs and RG don’t blink when it comes to this sort of thing, they are ready to meet their maker if pushed hard enough, especially by Israel and the US. As for finding the targets, they have the intel and firepower to find and destroy whatever there is sooner or later, and they were able apparently to take out the scientists in Iran and get the virus into the works. And the usual suspects are lining up against Iran, only China and Russia are serious opponents, and they have shown they can be bought off at least in a case like Libya, or are willing to let the West dig itself another hole, although this one might be too big and deep even for them.
      But all that said if for some reason they don’t do it (though they would surely like to) there’s still a gain in it as a distraction and cover for tougher sanctions etc.

        1. err *too hard to show how religious they are and don’t reflect an inner peace rather than outer violence. (editor is out to lunch lol)

        2. Not lightly, but if pushed hard. And not to back down to bluff, if bluff it is. Agree though that Iran will reform if not under constant attack, given time, generational change alone guarantees it plus technology. It almost happened before Ahmadinejad.

  2. Just to point out – yet again – that if Israeli plans have “passed from the planning to the operational stage” then according to Israeli doctrine the Mullahs now ALREADY HAVE sufficient cause for them to launch a pre-emptive strike on Israel, AND call that pre-emptive strike a “defensive war”.

  3. Has there been much discussion about post-attack scenarios? It would seem like Netanyahu and his cronies would want some incident or some way to juice-up the Israeli people, no less the US, EU, China, etc, in case it isn’t a simple bomb bomb and thank you goodbye. There has been next to nothing in the US press; can’t imagine the US would want to get into another ME mess. What are the assumptions about how much the US would be willing to wade into a conflict?

    It’s not like there hasn’t been a lot of warning to Iran that the suspected regions of nuclear facilities are about to get a whole lot of bombs dropped. Iran will most certainly respond in a robust way; might new fronts open? Lebanon and Gaza (with unofficial Egyptian support), which would introduce a ground conflict; this is just what the doctor ordered for Assad of Syria; if the conflict drags on, could the hatred of Israel inspire widespread popular support from Egypt?

  4. Nehemia Shetresler (an ultra-rightist on social and economic issues, yet a dove) raises in today’s Haaretz an obvious yet significant point: talking about Israel’s need to prepare for a solo attack on Iran helps Ehud Barak in his struggle against the proposed cuts in the security budget (which were suggested as a way of raising socially-oriented budgets, in accord with J14 demands, without increasing the government’s deficit). The Israeli security establishment has often raised the public’s fears of war when its gargantuan budget is was threatened. This may also be an important context for the current Iran “leaks”.

  5. A bunch of years ago I taught a class at a Washington, DC university; after one class I was talking to a continuing ed student and, by a related issue, I asked him what he did for work; he responded that he was in an office (DOD I suspect) that calculated the death and destruction that would result from a nuclear exchange between the US and the USSR. I asked him what it was like doing such a thing; he said that you get used to it; it was like being an accountant.

    I wonder how much Netanyahu and Barak and the Israeli public have thought about ‘truth or consequences’.

    I wonder whether there are death and destruction accountants that have informed Netanyahu and Barak the full range of the death and destruction that could result.

  6. “truth or consequences”
    In broad terms the consequences are known and have been for a half century or more. A sample for bed time reading:

    Woodwell, G.M. (Ed.). Ecological Effects of Nuclear War, Brookhaven National Laaboratory, BNL 917 (C-43), August 1963.

    Vineberg, Robert. Human Factors in Tactical Nuclear Combat, G.W. University, Tech. Report 65-2, April 1965

    Office of Technology Assessment, Congress of the United States. The Effects of Nuclear War, 1979

    And without which no personal library is complete:

    Glasstone, Samuel and Philip J. Dolan (Eds). The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, 3rd edition, 1977

    And for those digitally challenged this last comes with a circular slide rule called the Nuclear Bomb Effects Computer.

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