Turkey today expelled Israel’s ambassador and announced it would downgrade relations between the two countries to the lowest level possible, while still maintaining them. This development, which was expected, is part of a round of measures Turkish officials have promised in response to Israel’s refusal to apologize for murdering nine Turkish citizens on the Mavi Marmara. Now that the Palmer Report has been formally released, Turkey will begin taking a number of other measures expected to affect military, commercial and diplomatic ties between the countries.
Though Turkish opposition newspapers have reported Turkey plans to cut off all trade relations as well, this has not been reported in Zaman, Turkey’s major paper. If Turkey did so, it would cut off a $3.5 billion annual trade flow between the two countries and significantly hurt one of Israel’s major exporters, the petrochemical industry. Many of Israel’s air routes also cross Turkish air space and if such rights were rescinded it would significantly harm Israeli tourism and trade as it would lengthen flight times and increase their cost.
Turkey will reportedly also support international lawsuits by families of murdered victims against Israel and initiate its own governmental suits. This in turn could seriously complicate the lives of the former IDF chief of staff and navy chief and that of Ehud Barak and Bibi Netanyahu, who approved the disastrous sea attack. They each may find international arrest warrants waiting for them on arrival in certain foreign countries.
The opposition newspaper Hurriyet reported a Turkish official went even further and affirmed the country’s mission to protect civilian shipping in the region. Before reading this it should be noted that this media outlet has been known to publish exaggerated reports on this subject which are then picked up by Israeli media seeking to discredit the Turkish leadership. But whatever the credibility, this story is interesting because it lays out possible scenarios which Israel and the U.S. should consider as they contemplate a Middle East considerably complicated by a Turkey-Israel faceoff:
The eastern Mediterranean will no longer be a place where Israeli naval forces can freely exercise their “bullying” practices against civilian vessels, a Turkish official said Friday.
The official said this would be the outcome of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s statement earlier in the day that “Turkey would take every precaution it deems necessary for the safety of maritime navigation in the eastern Mediterranean.”
While the Gaza flotilla massacre is the nominal catalyst for these measures, Turkish relations with Israel began deteriorating after Operation Cast Lead, which Turkey took a leading role in criticizing. In fact, Prime Minister Erdogan has pointedly said he expects to visit Gaza in the coming weeks to dramatize Turkey’s commitment to the enclave and its ongoing opposition to Israel’s siege there.
But I think what even more rankled Erdogan was what he perceived as a betrayal by Ehud Olmert, for whom he was attempting to mediate peace talks with Syria. Turkey had just managed to set up face to face talks between the two parties, which would’ve proven to be a definitive step leading to formal peace talks and a possible resolution of outstanding differences and treaty. Faced with this prospect, Olmert turned on his heels and started a war with Hamas in Gaza. I think Erdogan has never forgiven Israel for this.
Some of the wilder rumors being spread by pro-Israel alarmists claim that Erdogan plans to board the next Turkish Gaza flotilla and lead it, something like Adm. John Paul Jones (“I have not yet begun to fight!”) leading U.S. warships into battle. I have this image of the Turkish leader standing at the prow of the Mavi Marmara with the Gaza wind whipping through his hair as it anchors off the Gaza coastline after breaking the blockade. He will either receive a hero’s welcome or–if Israel intercepts him–he may be on a fool’s errand…at least that’s what Israel would have you believe.
In fact, the Palmer Report makes it less, rather than more likely that Turkey will participate in future flotillas. Despite Turkey’s defiant disagreement with the slipshod methods of the Palmer Report, I doubt very much it’s about to allow itself to become entangled in future flotillas given the sharp (wrongheaded) criticism included in the findings. He is smart enough to pick his battles, and staking his flag on the issue of the flotilla is probably not in the cards.
But Erdogan is nothing if not a shrewd, wily adversary and just because one avenue of protest may be foreclosed to him does not mean he will become quiescent. On the contrary, I predict he will become even more activist in his criticism of Israel and attempt to play an ever more strategic role in undermining Israel’s interests, as far as they involve maintaining the Occupation and extending hegemony over the region (for example, the Iran issue).
Erdogan will frustrate Israel at every opportunity, as long as it is a position advocating a peaceful, just resolution of Israel’s regional conflicts (eg Syria, Iran, Palestine, Lebanon, etc.). But he will not do this out of spite. I think Erdogan genuinely wants and believes in regional peace and believes Israel has a legitimate role to play in the Middle East. But he also believes there should be rules nations follow in pursuing their interests. When they cross red lines, there must be consequences. Otherwise, the region becomes even more of a powder keg than it already is.
Erdogan’s image inside Israel is conveniently that of a megalomaniac. The nation manages to demonize any foreign leader who stands in the way of its perceived interests. Needless to say, while I don’t believe Erdogan or his party are gods among men, I don’t buy the Israeli view either. After all, if Ehud Olmert hadn’t gambled on a stupid war against Gaza and had pursued peace with Syria under Turkish mediation, Israel might have a peace treaty by now, the Lebanese border might be at peace, and Israel might have two less frontline states to worry about. All this Erdogan was prepared to do for Israel, for Syria, and for the region until Olmert left him high and dry.
Richard
weeks ago an item came up that the Israeli gov’t was considering apologizing and I wrote saying that Israel would not.
This is the Lieberman/Netanyahu/Yshai policy better bring the country down in flames than do the right thing.
At this moment both Israel and Turkey are on opposite sides of the universe and both are extremely trigger happy.
It is not farfetched to presume that antagonism may involve more than just verbal provocation.
Turkey’s belligerance level is today hundreds of times greater than the Cyprus conflict time
Who knows when the first official bullet will be fired from one direction to the other, there is no backing down now, the stakes as seen by both are to the end.
I don’t think this will involve a shooting war. But if Israel DOES choose to go to war against Lebanon, Syria or Gaza in future I can foresee Turkey using its considerable influence, both diplomatic, commercial & military to intervene in hostilities in ways detrimental to Israel. If Israel thinks Iran operates proxies acting against it, it should wait to see what Turkey can do. And I also expect that Israel will begin helping arm Turkish Kurds & fomenting violence against Turkey. When such powerful countries activate proxies in this way it does escalate the chances for war. Look at WWI, which began in almost this same way.
If I were Obama, I would bring enormous pressure to bear against Israel to apologize to Turkey & end the siege now. But Obama goes his own way & doesn’t understand the implications of things going on in this region at all. In that sense, he’s little better than George Bush. I never thought I’d say that & hate having to say it now, because Obama is obviously a lot smarter than Bush. But the problem is he’s not willing to act.
The best the US could do is for Clinton to ask Israel – nicely – to pretty please consider apologizing. That was in the papers about 2-3 weeks back (don’t have link handy). And upon hearing that Israel said “says who?” or the equivalent.
Now Secretary Ban is also asking the parties to please play nice. One can hear Turkey in the background laughing, and Israel shrieking – “Ban Hu??”.
There is at least one more reason for Erdogan’s riff with Israel, and that’s the latter’s support for the Kurds, and in particular, the PKK. It’s interesting that recently Turkey took off the restraints, mounting several military bombing runs on Iraqi Kurdistan. They must have intelligence that confirms Israel’s hand in fomenting unrest among the Kurds, and is no doubt concern about that. There’s little around by way of proof, other than Israeli agents and citizens being seen and heard in Kurdistan. My theory is that the Kurds represent a serious red line for Turkey and Israel has crossed it, possibly with US tacit approval.
Israel has always been interested in supporting the Kurds, but the main interest has been to sow trouble in Iraq.
At the moment, that’s a bit passé, as the present government in Iraq needs Kurdish support to survive, though I imagine the Arab-Kurdish problem will bring it back soon.
It’s a question what Turkey thinks about Israeli aid for the Kurds.
RE: “alarmists claim that Erdogan plans to board the next Turkish Gaza flotilla and lead it, something like Adm. John Paul Jones” ~ R.S.
MY REPARTEE: How dare you not also mention “Teddy” Roosevelt and his “Rough Riders”!
How dare you!
How dare you!
“Some people” might even call you a “traitor” for favouring John Paul Jones over Theodore Roosevelt! (lol)
What can I say, my dad served in the U.S. Navy during WWII. But I am partial to TR. Love the moustache & the big stick, so to speak.
If I were Obama, I would bring enormous pressure to bear against Israel to apologize to Turkey & end the siege now. But Obama goes his own way & doesn’t understand the implications of things going on in this region at all.
I think he is keeping his bag of tricks for his second term. The first one, due to the economy and the US’s dwindling influence is taken up with the economic woes. True. We need a President who understands the Middle East. Obama isn’t it. He’s just a nice poster hero for America, living in an ivory world. Turkey and Israel may well end up in a war before his second term is finished. I wonder what he’d do then, he cannot just dither like he does now.
Turkey and Israel at war? Maybe. But perhaps they will simply play a (chiefly) diplomatic game from which the USA is excluded, showing the irrelevance of the USA wherever its military empire cannot be set in motion. USA has forgotten diplomacy, perhaps in part because it has had its hands so severely tied by Israel/AIPAC, on one hand, and by the Pentagon/Intelligence/AntiTerrorism folks, on the other, that no opportunity for diplomacy has arisen in recent years.