35 thoughts on “Israel-Iran War Game Scenario Predicts Disaster – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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  1. way-back machine division, AIPAC vs Iran: Tikun Olam Conference, Dec 2009: Keith Weissman said, "In 1995 I helped write the legislation that imposed the first sanctions on Iran. …. They harmed Americans more than they harmed Iran…. The sanctions were imposed at the instigation of AIPAC… Unilateral sanctions have never been effective, never achieved their goal…"

    The question Weissman did not address: WHY did AIPAC do it? If AIPAC KNOWS that sanctions do not work, that they harm US interests, why does AIPAC continue to press for sanctions against Iran?

    nb.: Any answer that stops at, "sanctions buy time…." is incomplete and unacceptable. Allowing innocent hostages to be slowly killed 'buys time' but still results in dead innocents; that's immoral. It's not what friends do for friends.

    So, AIPAC/Weissman: WHY?

    1. First, Ahmadinejad is quoted (once again who provided the translation we do not know) as saying that Israel will "be annihilated." By whom? How? Doesn't say. Are you arguing that Ahmadinejad makes Iranian war policy & can decide to take the country to war? If so, on what basis do you make such an argument?

      1. Are saying that he makes incendiary statements like this without authorization from the political heirarchy of the country? Why is he saying these things? He sure is scaring the hell out of a lot of people. A lot of "progressives" in Israel are worried about it. What would he have to say in order for you to say there is a problem? If he is saying "Israel (G-d forbid) will be annihilated " and then you use Juan Cole's interpretation saying that "he didn't say HE would do it", how can you prove he DOESN'T mean that he will do it himself. Prove your position.

        If you had a neighbor who started telling everyone else that you were a threat to the neightborhood, that you are going to "disappear", that you are going to be "annihilated", and then he started brandishing a weapon, wouldn't you be a little nervous? Or would you say, " he didn't say HE would do it". or "murder is against the law, I am sure the police wouldn't let him do it…if they get here in time".

        1. how can you prove he DOESN'T mean that he will do it himself

          I don't have to prove anything. If you want to attack Iran it is YOU who will have to prove that such a belligerent act is justified. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad does not have th power to make Iranian foreign policy & that includes a decision to go to war. Does Shimon Peres, also a president of a country, have such power? No. This power is in the hands of the Ayatollah, not Ahmadinejad. You know this yet you choose conveniently to ignore it. Ignorance is bliss.

  2. It seems the scenarios never reflect anything but limited warfare and weapons use. This would not be the case. Should Israel choose to take on Iran militarily it would be a world changing life or death struggle for her. No room for failure or half measures. All technological stops will be removed and we will see some weapons we have never seen before, and I am not talking nuclear. We will see Israel systematically dismantle all 4 threats at once, Syria, Hizbollah, Hamas and IRGC, and neutralize the Iranian Regime's Leadership allowing the 70% of Iran's population that hates the Regime to take control. It won't be conventional in the normal sense that we think of warfare. It will be shocking. It will be definitive. The western world was scared to use it's power since Vietnam and was quite restrained during both Gulf Wars. But the West is fed up with Tehran's Rulers and the terror they spread and will continue to spread. It is a crazy Messianic crew in charge of Iran who will sacrifice millions of lives to create the conditions for the return of the Mahdi. If we want to avert WW3 then we must stop the evil now.

    1. This is absolutey nuttery. It's full of lies, half-truths & swill. How did you find your way here & can you pls. find yr way somewhere else rather quickly. I only published this comment because you didn't violate my comment rules. But if you publish again & continue with this line of propaganda & hate you'll find yrself quickly outside looking in.

    2. trust me i hate iran and their regime but israel are far worse considering what they do to unarmed civilians everyday. if israel has no nukes it wouldve been destroyed long time ago. this also gives the question why israel is allowed to have nukes and iran no?!

      1. if israel has no nukes it wouldve been destroyed long time ago.

        I hate to say it but that’s a dumb argument & plays right into the arguments & fears of those Israelis who say this is precisely why we must have them.

    3. And next in line must certainly be the warmongers in the USA or Israel. Should the USA be also attacked for their terror spread? Their list of terror and genocide acts list has no ends. Iran has not invaded a single country. Can you say the same about Israel or the USA or even NATO. I am not a deffender of Iran but neither am I a supporter of warmongers!! The Evil that need to be stopped now isn’t in Iran but in your own backyard… A race that declares themseves the chosen one are in my book the dangerous Have you forgotten Germany WWII? Blond with blue eyes were the supperior race. When have you seen Arabs declared themselves supperior to others? The solution isn’t confrontation but understanding. And right now Israel, USA AIPAC has no understanding of the world affairs. WAR isn’t the solution to what ever imaginary threat you read on the internet or Newspapers…

      1. Maybe the Hebrew is different but the phrase "which could lead" sounds to me like he thinks an embargo is a practical possibility. Frankly, a lot of this seems pretty farfetched. A Turkish government allowing Iranian troops across its soil? The Turks would be jeopardizing any relation with the US that way, and I don't think any Turkish government would risk it.

  3. richard, you are a pro iranian shill and you published this scare piece exactly to whip up fear in Israel of the big bad Iranians and their friends in Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas. You are too ignorant to consider the main reason why the Iranian theological despots want nuclear weapons…because they want to keep the rest of Iran in line and terrify any Iranians who would promote internal rebellion. Iran is not 100 per dent Persian ethnically, there are big enclaves of Kurds and Azeris and other minorities all of whom hate the government and who hate the IRG. If there was a revolution in Iran it would most likely start in a regional city with an ethnic minority base. The revolutionaries would wipe out the local IRG garrison, join with the conscript Iranian Army, and march on Tehran. They would pick up thousands or millions of disaffected Iranians, including ethnic Persians, as they marched. This is the possibility that most frightens Iran’s ruling clerics and the IRG. They know they are hated and they know they have a minority government that is kept in power by fear. The only way they can maintain the fear is by having the ability to crush regional rebellions with nuclear weapons.

    1. Your nickname is a disgusting Arabic slur. You are immediately on the shortest of leashes for violating my comment rules, which you should read carefully.

      You claim “all” Iranian minorities hate the regime? And you know his how? Then you posit the hypothetical “if” there was a revolution. I haven’t seen any evidence of a revolution. But you Israeli neocons love to speculate about all manner of such nonsense. Let me know when all those minorities do finally tire of Ahmadinejad & mount that revolution you’re so fond of touting.

      As for yr fantasy about Iran seeking nuclear weapons to use against its own citizens, it’s so ludicrous I wonder if you’ve had yr sanity checked lately by a professional?

  4. The article misperceives the battle objectives, and the reality, that Iranian leadership will need to be taken out first to disrupt command and control. If Ahmadinajad and the majority of his generals are dead, any response to Israel bombing the nuclear sites will be slow and uncoordinated. Also, the article assumes that Israel would be a sitting for an enemy reprisal. With each scud missle, or each Irananian WMD, Israel will respond. The United States stands by Israel more than you know.

    1. If Ahmadinajad and the majority of his generals are dead, any response to Israel bombing the nuclear sites will be slow and uncoordinated

      And you think Iran is so stupid that they haven’t thought of this & dispersed their command & control sufficiently to allow them to survive in good shape such an Israeli attack??

  5. The best strategy is to do nothing. A nuclear Iran is no more of a threat than a non-nuclear Iran. If Tehran pressed the button, it is game over for them. Regimes act rationally otherwise we would have had nuclear war by now. Eventually Iran will want to normalise relations with the world and a pre-condition will be for them to drop their nuclear weapons, just as happened with Libya

  6. I believe the Arabs,Turks,Persian their national securty are because one reason and that is KURDISTAN.Kurdistan is also holy land where the father all nation ABRAHAM MADE HIS JEORNEY to ISRAEL,also there are many jewish profites barried in kurdistan,indeed the Arabs,persian and turks will not educate their people,will not confess about the truth,will not believe in Humanity,justice,will not give up of thier past howmuch they committed SIN by killing,tourchering,disappearancing,taking kurdish land by force and settle the arabs,turks and persian.But God Of Isreal has been patient for long time for your crimes,so all these jewish profet were prophecied on your sins.God of Israel is God of love,peace,forgivness,friendship,is not GOD OF HATE,BEHEADING HEADS,TAKING OVER LANDS AND TAKE THEIR BELONGIES AS YOU ALL DID TO THE KURDISH PEOPLE WHERE YOU KNOW THE LAND OF ARK OF NOAH,ABRAHAM,DANIEL,NAKHOUM,ESTHER,HABABBUK…ETC

  7. For any of your scenario’s to become a reality Israel would have to roll over and play dead after there initial attack. And you would have to be out your freaking mind if you think that is going to happen. You also seem to be forgetting about the Neutron Bomb, ever hear of it? And if you think Israel will not use them, maybe you are not clear on what we mean by “Never Again”

      1. Richard actually even I don’t agree with some of the scenarios mentioned here.

        I think it will be an intense ariel war for couple of weeks. Isreal will end up dominating the sky in about 7-10 days.

        Iran might score few missile hits on Isreal but most of the missiles will be shot down by Isreal’s missile shields.

        Soon Iran will realise its limitations. Most likely there won’t be any land invasion except for some possible small incursions.

        Open full scale war required tons of money. Neither side has the capability for it.

        1. IF just ONE missle gets thru to DIMONA the Isreali State
          will be unliveable.
          The same cannot be said of ANY Iranian site.
          Just the facts man, just the facts.

          1. You are right…only one thing. Once Israel starts bombing Iran’s reactors, Where will the radiation go? I’ve read some crazy numbers of death but then again…Israel should stay as far as possible of Iran. One Fukushima at the time, please.

    1. I think that you are the one forgetting the meaning of “Never Again”… Your actions in Palestinia, Lebanon, Syria, is the opposite. Israel has become the new and improved Nazis. Maybe the “Never Again” should be “Our Turn will Come!”. Israel has proven to rest of the world more than once how inhumain it can be. “Genocide” is Israel’s new Motto. Maybe “Never Again” in hebrew means something else. The christians have ” Don’t do to others what you do not wish to be done to you”.
      “Never Again”, Who are you kidding?!

        1. Well noted… But sometimes there are no other words to express ones frustration and the …. word must be used to shock and have attention of some. Similarities are to obvious at time.

  8. Of all the cultures I have encountered, it would appear that the Israeli alongside the American are ones least able to learn from their own historical experience. Vered’s analysis is full of problems and while critical, is at the same time typical of Israeli-American ignorance of the world at large, what motivates real people, and how things actually work. For example, despite all of Turkey’s latest ‘anti-israel’ talk, its mostly ‘talk’ which is aimed at internal and regional audiences. In reality, Turkey and Iran are both competing with Israel to be ‘the’ regional hegemon. Turkey has for years allied itself with Israel against ‘others’. So any tandem situation is possible. Short of cultural revolutions, Turkish and Iranian cooperation probably saw its Zenith with the Seljuks of the 12th century AD. I have noticed both Israelis and Americans have an interesting and strange ability to whip themselves up into a self-believing frenzy of insanity. War Hawks are typically not combat veterans such as myself (USMC). Israel has suffered a series of military defeats for certain reasons, none of which really involved ‘Israel holding itself back’ due to any set of abstract principles. It would be foolish and childish to believe the world works this way, contrary to all evidence that it doesn’t. The US was summarily defeated in Vietnam not because they ‘held themselves back’ but because ‘they were held back’, i.e contained, i.e ‘defeated’. The US did not ‘hold back’ in Vietnam. More bombs were dropped by the US in the first two years of Vietnam than were dropped by both sides in all of WWII. The US did not ‘hold back’ in Vietnam because they ‘did not drop the A-bomb’. They did not drop the A bomb because then an A-bomb would have been dropped on DC from Moscow, hence ushering in a nuclear holocaust of world proportions. Israeli and American cultures, in my opinion, are materialistic, media driven, decadent, and selfish. Of course many good people comprise a minority within it. While this makes for a bizarrely self-righteous culture which believes itself to be capable of total victory, it does not create the actual cultural conditions of selflessness, endurance, and sacrifice required for final victory prolonged total war.
    In short, Hezbollah is comprised of volunteers motivated by a sense of history, life, and death. IDF is made mostly of teenage boys serving their two years required duty. Most of the time they are following reality TV, talking to girls, and trying to go out to the Disco. Men fighting for their lives and thinking about things of religious and historical magnitude vs boys fighting under conscription laws and distracted by MTV fantasies and material culture desires. I think I know who will win. Israeli culture is fragmented, secular, and individualist. This is not a culture than can actually fight a real war to the end, just a culture like the US that can only ‘drop bombs’, and can only tolerate that as long as their pilots aren’t shot from the sky. Even Iranian Jews believe in Iranian society, and all societies have classes, ethnicities, and divisions. All in all, Israel seems, though, to have far bigger wealth inequality issues than Iran, and far less cultural homogeneity. Even a Kurd shares so much more historically and culturally with a Persian than does a Ukrainian jewish transplant have with a palestinian jew, or a spanish ladino jew. A Russian jew who immigrated to Israel in the early 1990’s for pragmatic and economic reasons shares practically none of the experiences, culturally historically etc, that a fourth generation child of settler zionists does. Israeli culture, like American culture, are teetering on the brink.

    1. There is some merit in what you have presented in your arguments regarding “lessons learned” ability of both US and Israel. However, the comparison between Hezbollah fighters (i.e. men of conviction based on history and religion) vs. IDF soldiers(i.e. boys raised by MTV culture who think only about girls) is absolutely baseless. Further, your comparison between Jew from Ukraine and Persia is absolutely baseless and lacks any deviance. What is indeed evident is HATE between Suni and Shia arabs who hate Turks with equal passion. I wonder why you skipping this part, and especially the part where they killed hundreds of thousands of their own kinsman.
      My suspicion is that in your case the saying: One can see the speck in one neighbor’s eye and fail to notice a tree log in one’s own” is indeed true.

  9. Those who recall the US/Cuban Crisis may also recall that
    IF Cuba had been massively invaded there were already
    NUKES waiting for such a situation. It would have been a bloodbath.
    Now if Isreal is only planning on using missles that will not be the case but those PILOTED acft overflying Iran will likely be a one way sorte, in which case they should be given commendations and medals before departure.

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