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Mohammad Said Kalash, "Offering Reconciliation" exhibit (photo: Ilan Amihai)

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Archive for the ‘Mideast Peace’ Category

Turkey’s Erdogan, Paul Auster Debate Relative Press Freedom in Israel, Turkey

Friday, February 3rd, 2012

Over the past day or so, a fierce fight has erupted between Turkish prime minister Tayyip Erdogan and New York Jewish author, Paul Auster.  The controversy began when Auster, whose new book was recently published in Turkey, announced to an opposition newspaperthat he refused to visit that country to promote it.  In the process, he blasted Turkey’s Islamist government for jailing authors and journalists:

paul auster shimon peres

Paul Auster paying respects to Israeli president Shimon Peres

“I refuse to come to Turkey because of imprisoned journalists and writers. How many are jailed now? Over 100?” Auster said, adding that Turkey was the country he was most worried about.

“Us democrats got rid of the Bushes. We got rid of  Cheney who should have been put on trial for war crimes,” the author said. “What is going on in Turkey?”

Erdogan, who suffers neither fools nor political opponents gladly, lashed out at Auster during a party conference, telling the author that Turkey didn’t need him to lecture it on how to be a democracy:

“Author Paul Auster…said he will not come to Turkey as he finds it anti-democratic because of arrested journalists.  Oh!  We were much in need of you!  [So] What if you come or not?” Erdoğan said during a party meeting yesterday.

Criticizing Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), and the newspapers for giving credit to Auster’s statements, Erdoğan asked, “Will Turkey lose altitude if you don’t come?”

Recalling that Auster joined a book fair in 2010 in Israel where he described Israel as a “secular, democratic country,” Erdoğan slammed the American writer for being unaware of the fact Israel was a non-secular state and had killed thousands of innocent people in the Gaza Strip. “I am sure Kılıçdaroğlu and Auster will join together for this year’s book fair in Israel,” he added.

Auster replied to Erdogan’s attack with this statement:

Whatever the Prime Minister might think about the state of Israel, the fact is that free speech exists there and no writers or journalists are in jail…All countries are flawed and beset by myriad problems, Mr. Prime Minister, including my United States, including your Turkey, and it is my firm conviction that in order to improve conditions in our countries, in every country, the freedom to speak and publish without censorship or the threat of imprisonment is a sacred right for all men and women.

While I don’t know Auster’s views about Israel, I presume he’s the typical liberal Zionist.  The brief substantive exchange he included about it in his reply indicated a fairly standard lib Zionist approach to the issue of Israel’s so-called democratic values, including press freedom and free speech.  It’s a shame he didn’t do his homework, as if he had he could’ve both bolstered his criticism of Turkey and done justice to the issue of the grave threats facing Israeli democracy.

There is no question that while Turkey as a nation has made great economic and political strides under Erdogan’s Islamist party, that country remains deficient in many areas which are well-known to many.  Kurds are denied basic rights, acknowledgement of the Armenian genocide is a crime, and freedoms that many in the west take for granted are routinely threatened in Turkey.  All of this is undeniably true.  As a friend of mine married to a Turk and living there says: while there is more freedom of speech than there has been in many decades, it is still a crime to “insult Turkishness” or say something “un-Turkish.”  The media is largely bought and paid for by moguls with large business empires who are willing to use their platforms to advance their business interests.  They do this by ingratiating themselves with the powers that be.  In the few instances when a corporate titan has allowed his journalists too much free rein to attack the government, he has paid a very high price in the economic warfare officials wage against him.

On the positive side, the country has made enormous strides in reducing poverty and addressing economic disparities and building wealth.  It has also undertaken a foreign policy offensive which has made it a critical regional player attempting to bring stability to such conflicts as Syria-Israel and Iran.  It will undoubtedly play a key role in ensuring the future stability of Syria if/when the Assad government falls.

But to get into a competition between the so-called freedoms of Israel and the so-called injustices of Turkey is a losing game.  Israel needs to be examined in its own right and not in comparison to any other country.

israeli military censorship

The list of rules for military censorship; caption: 'Censorship: the freedom to express oneself responsibly' (Ynet)

So let’s return to Paul Auster’s claims about Israel.  He hasn’t even scratched the surface.  Israeli journalists and media are under the gravest of threats from the right-wing government and its thuggish non-governmental allies.  Uri Blau, one of Israel’s leading investigative reporters, who broke the story of IDF targeted assassinations in violation of Supreme Court rulings, faces six years in prison if the government decides to prosecute him.  His crime?  He published top secret documents leaked to him by whistleblower, Anat Kamm.  Jared Malsin, English language editor of the Palestinian independent news agency, Maan, was imprionsed by Israeli authorities for nearly a week, and then deported because they no longer wished to allow him to practice journalism in the West Bank.

Military censorship applies to wide swaths of Israeli journalism and can be invoked regarding stories great and small. Though Israelis have learned to read between the lines to discover when a story has been censored, they still don’t know what information they’ve been denied nor why.

Journalists who report from Israel for Arab language outlets like Al Jazeera face routine embarrassment and harassment at the hands of Israeli security officials.  This has included the stripping of female journalists by security agents before meetings with the prime minister.

The director of the Prime Minister’s office, who is himself under investigation for sex harassment, blackmailed TV Channel 10 by demanding that it fire investigative journalist Raviv Drucker in return for the government not taking the station off the air.  Drucker had just aired a damaging story about Bibi Netanyahu’s flaunting of ethics rules while he was an MK.

The Israeli Knesset is considering a new law which would drastically reduce the level of proof needed to convict someone of libel.  It would massively increase awards against those found guilty of defamation.  Complainants wouldn’t even need to establish proof of any economic damage in order to be compensated.  Publishers could also be held liable for defamation for comments published in the Talkback section.

Israel’s press is dominated by a single newspaper, Yisrael HaYom, funded by a billionaire for the express purpose of bringing Bibi to power and keeping him there.  Does this sound like a country that enjoys a free press?

Regarding free speech, the threats are enormous.  Peace activists are routinely dragged before the Shin Bet for interrogation for the crime of speaking their mind.  The women of New Profile were threatened with prison for advocating draft resistance in opposition to the Occupation.  Ilana Hammerman has similarly been questioned three times and threatened with prosecution for the crime of bringing Palestinian mothers and children into Israel to breathe fresh air at the beach and go to the zoo.  Solidarity activists at Sheikh Jarrah are routinely arrested and assaulted by Israeli police for opposing eviction of Palestinians from their homes.  Peace Now staff have faced bomb and death threats from settler extremists and the Israeli police don’t even prosecute when they know the identities of the perpetrators.

The Israeli justice system allows extensive use of gag orders to protect the interests of the state, the military, and the wealthy.  Gag orders are routinely granted without having to prove any specific jeopardy to the protected party.  Rape victims often may not discuss the crimes committed against them if they’re accusing a powerful man of harming them and he has a good attorney who can secure a gag order (cf. Yoav Even).

Though I know of few threats to writers of the sort that Auster complains about in Turkey, Israeli performers who don’t toe the political line pay the price as major roles dry up on stage and screen.  Haaretz, this week, featured a profile of Mohammed Bakri, perhaps Israel’s most famous Palestinian actor.  After directing the documentary, Jenin Jenin, he was blackballed from many work opportunities in Israel.  The Israeli Film Board banned the film until the Supreme Court lifted it.  He has not acted on an Israeli stage since 2003, a year after the film came out:

The last time Bakri…was seen on an Israeli stage was in 2003, in Shlomi Moskovitz’s “Seven Days,” directed by Dedi Baron at the Habima Theater…More recently Bakri was supposed to have replaced an Arab actor in one play and another theater director did not employ him, fearing reactions like those of Im Tirtzu. That is, Bakri’s prospects for employment in Israel have already been affected without Im Tirtzu’s campaign against him.

A decade ago or so, Chava Alberstein recorded a powerful anti-Occupation work which adapted the traditional Pesach song, Chad Gadya.  Many radio stations boycotted the song, the singer received death threats and she didn’t perform in Israel for many years.  The only places she could perform were abroad, where the controversy was less well-known.

So is Israel is haven for free speech and free press?  Hardly.  In fact, Paul Auster owes it to himself and his readers to study this issue in much greater depth.  He could speak out about these matters the next time he’s in Israel.  In fact, after what he’s said in the midst of this controversy, he has a responsibility to do so.  I’ve suggested to progressive bloggers in New York that they seek a dialogue with Auster and perhaps a public event sponsored by Jewish Voice for Peace or PEN to address the freedom deficit facing Israel.  I think it would be bracing and informative.  What better person to invite to speak on a panel with Auster than Jared Malsin, who spent a week in an Israeli jail cell for the crime of being a good reporter?

Obama Administration: U.S. Would ‘Come to Israel’s Defense’ If Iran Attacked It

Thursday, February 2nd, 2012

David Ignatius published an alarming story in today’s Washington Post, in which he quotes Leon Panetta predicting an Israeli attack on Iran in “April, May or June.”  Buried deeper within the article is an even more chilling passage:

Administration officials caution that Tehran shouldn’t misunderstand: The United States has a 60-year commitment to Israeli security, and if Israel’s population centers were hit, the United States could feel obligated to come to Israel’s defense.

In the context of the article, which portrays an Israeli first strike against Iran, we can only explain this statement as announcing to Iran that if it counter-strikes against Israel that the U.S. will join in the war against it.  That would help explain why the U.S. is amassing a massive amount of firepower in the Gulf including perhaps a record three carrier task forces preparing for God knows what mischief.

I can’t say clearly enough that what the U.S. has signaled in Ignatius’ report is that if Iran is attacked, it may not strike back against its attacker.  If it does, the U.S. will rain down hellfire and damnation on it.  This is frightening beyond measure.  I’ve never known the U.S. to lay down such a principle which virtually assures our joining in a war against Iran.  Israeli policymakers will be delighted to read these words.  Hawks like Bibi, Barak and Bogie Yaalon (from whom, more later) will be sharpening their spears and pruning hooks, not to mention their Jericho IIs and U.S.-supplied bunker busters.

Of course, there’s always a chance that Panetta is bluffing, using psy ops to spook the Iranians into believing they will face two implacable foes in war if they don’t abandon their nuclear ambitions.  If we are bluffing, I’m afraid it won’t work.  Iran’s leaders are hardened, seasoned veterans of a 1979 Revolution and eight year war with Iraq in which they lost 1-million citizens.  They are inured to suffering of the sort we can inflict on them.

All of this means that Iran’s leaders are liable to shrug all this off as the price of doing business in a nuclear-weaponized world.  So what happens when Iran stands tall against such threats and says: “Is that all you’ve got?”  At that point, we’ve got nothing left but war.  And we’ve talked ourselves halfway into war through the belligerency of our rhetoric and threats.

Ignatius regurgitates more Israeli propaganda already disseminated in the New York Times that predicts Iran will mount at best a faint reply to an Israeli “surgical attack” on its nuclear facilities.  At most a few Hezbollah missiles and 500 Israeli deaths (to quote an infamous Barak prediction).  All the while ignoring the hundreds of Iranian missiles that could attack Israel and likely would if Israel attacked.  The idea that Israelis believe they have the right to launch a first strike against Iran, while Iran has either no right or no will to reply is so far-fetched as to be almost delusional given the nature of Iran, its leaders, and its military.

Here’s some more Israeli delusion:

“You stay to the side, and let us do it,” one Israeli official is said to have advised the United States. A “short-war” scenario assumes five days or so of limited Israeli strikes, followed by a U.N.-brokered cease-fire.

I can’t tell if this is certifiably delusional or merely a typically Israeli macho bluff.  But whatever it is it’s incredibly dangerous if any policymakers takes this remotely seriously.

Bronner quotes another typically narcissistic Israeli interpretation of the security threats it faces:

General Kochavi [IDF Aman intelligence chief] also estimated that Israel faced 200,000 missiles and rockets aimed at it from its enemies.

For the life of me, I don’t know where he gets such figures.  Hezbollah may have somewhere in the range of 10,000-20,000.  Gaza militants may have several thousand.  Iran has perhaps in the hundreds of missiles capable of reaching Israel.  That’s it.  Is he including Turkey’s missile capabilities in that number?  Even if so, would Turkey have 150,000 missiles in its inventory?  I doubt it.  In addition, including Turkey in that count means the IDF has now declared the former as a formal military enemy, when I hadn’t heard of any outright hostilities between the two that would justify such an evaluation.

moshe yaalon

Former IDF chief of staff Moshe Yaalon marches to war against Iran ( Ariel Jerozolimski)

Even more strange is Kochavi’s neglecting to mention the 200-400 Israeli nukes pointing at those same enemies along with a massive missile inventory of Jericho and other missile types capable of sending them anywhere in the Middle East.  Isn’t it convenient whenever Israel wishes the world to shed tears on its behalf, it omits the offensive threat that it poses to its neighbors.

Annually, the Herzliya conference features the creme de la creme of Israel’s political-military-intelligence echelons boasting about Israel’s achievements on the world stage.  It’s Israel’s version of Davos minus any discussion of issues having even a faintly progressive aspect.  That means leaving out social and economic justice, peace, environment, civil rights, etc.

Israeli minister Bogie Yaalon, one of Israel’s leading hawks on the question of Iran war, dropped a bombshell into the political debate by claiming, during his conference presentation, that the Iranian missile base destroyed by a massive explosion several weeks ago was testing a new intercontinental missile prototype with a 6,000 mile range.  For those who are geographically-challenged, that’s long enough to hit the U.S.

Yaalon and his faithful scribe, Ethan “Eytan” Bronner, made sure American readers understood the “threat” this personified:

The Israeli, Moshe Yaalon, a deputy prime minister and minister for strategic affairs, said the blast at a missile base of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps hit a system “getting ready to produce a missile with a range of 10,000 kilometers.”

“That’s the Great Satan,” he said, invoking a name Iran has used for the United States. “It was aimed at America, not at us.”

Mr. Yaalon was trying to make the point that the Iranian nuclear program is a threat not only to Israel but to other nations, creating “a nightmare for the free world.” He said that it was a concern to Arab states as well as to the United States and Israel.

You can say something on Bronner’s behalf: at least he includes this passage, which in effect reveals that some U.S. officials believe Yaalon is a liar (though they use language far more diplomatic than that):

American officials said they believed that Mr. Yaalon’s assertions were at best premature, and at worst badly exaggerated.

Though one Iranian-American expert on Iran’s military programs does deride Yaalon’s claims.  It should be pointed out that this source, USC engineering professor Muhammad Sahimi (Wikipedia article), is by no means a friend of the Iranian regime:

This is total nonsense. Iran has said many, many times that it is not developing, and has no interest in developing an intercontinental missile. This is another bit of lies and propaganda by Yaalon to present Iran as a worldwide threat…

My high-level Israeli source also called Yaalon’s claims “exaggerated” and said they were “probably meant to frighten the American public.”

If You Want to Be Shin Bet Chief, Get on Sara’s Good Side

Thursday, February 2nd, 2012
sara netanyahu

Sara Netanyahu (Flash 90)

Of all the qualities that are necessary for a good Israeli intelligence chief, there’s one essential one you’d never think of in a million years: don’t cross Sara Netanyahu.  You won’t find that one listed on any job description or set of requirements for the position, but in some sense it may be more important than all the other qualifications a successful candidate must have.

For a number of months, I reported that the next Shin Bet director to replace Yuval Diskin would be Yitzhak Ilan.  Yet somehow he lost out to Yoram Cohen.  I scratched my head and asked, what happened.  Israeli media was full of rumors that the top candidate lost out in the end to a dark horse through some sort of taint or blemish that sunk his candidacy.  The truth is that, in fact, until two hours before the announcement, Ilan was still the favored choice.

Ben Caspit hinted (Hebrew) that the settler movement hated Ilan (his previous intelligence jobs had involved investigating their acts of violence and extremism).  Now, it appears likely that Sara and Eshel pointed out to Bibi that he had two good candidates, but that one angered one of his core constituencies (the settlers).  So why not appoint the other and so retain their support?  From this we can also expect that Cohen will go lightly on settler acts of terror and violence.  Indeed, the fact that no one has been charged, prosecuted or imprisoned for a host of price tag attacks going back months may be ascribed to Cohen knowing on which side his bread is buttered.

In a recent conversation, a knowledgeable Israeli insider told me that Ilan ran afoul of Mrs. Netanyahu, though I never found out why.  The benefit of the Eshel sexual harassment scandal is that it’s blowing the lid off other stories.

Today’s Haaretz provides examples of the ways in which Eshel abused Rivka Kidron on the job.  One of them was to threaten her with surveillance by the Shin Bet:

One employee of the bureau [prime minister's office] who testified in the Civil Service Commission probe said that Eshel told R. he was following her every move on orders from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wife, Sara. According to this worker’s testimony, Eshel also told R. that she only had her job because of him, and that he was the one who had convinced Sara Netanyahu to okay her employment in the bureau.

Another person who testified to the commission said Eshel had let it drop to R. that he had a role in the appointment of Shin Bet security service head Yoram Cohen, and could therefore get help from the Shin Bet to monitor her activities.

We already know of the extraordinarily close relationship between Sara and Eshel.  In fact, he was her eyes and ears in the PMO.  He did her bidding.  It now becomes obvious that one of the ways in which he did this was to promote the fortunes of the successful finalist, Cohen (who is, like Eshel, an Orthodox Jew).  What does it say about a nation’s intelligence services that to be a successful candidate you have to cultivate the favor of the prime minister’s wife as much as or more than touting your actual professional qualifications?

Returning to the Eshel-Kidron case, it’s known that Sara disapproved of the former.  This gave Eshel yet another point of leverage against the victim.  He could go to her and say that Sara hates you, I’m the only one who stands between you and a pink slip.  This is the mark of a canny sexual predator seeking pressure points to exploit for his own advantage.  It reminds me of a previously exposed high level convicted rapist, Moshe Katsav.  The only difference was that Katsav had numerous victims.  Eshel appears not to have succeeded in his blandishments toward Kidron.

Arab Intelligence Agencies Collaborate With Mossad to Detain, Extradite Hamas Activist to Israel

Wednesday, February 1st, 2012
jafar daghlas

Imprisoned Palestinian engineer, Jafar Daghlas

In a story reminiscent of the kidnapping of Dirar Abusisi, a Palestinian engineer known for his activities in support of Hamas, has been arrested and interrogated for long periods by the Mukhabarat in both the United Arab Emirates and Jordan:

Was Israel behind the overseas arrest of a Palestinian engineer suspected of ties with Hamas? The arrested man thinks it was – but Hamas blames the Palestinian Authority.

Jafar Daghlas, 27, a resident of the West Bank town of Burka who until recently lived in Abu Dhabi, has been questioned by two different Arab security services recently – those of the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. He suspects Israel was trying to get him extradited here

The victim enlisted the support of a professional engineering association in Jordan and Friends of Humanity, a human rights NGO which intervened on his behalf to prevent what he expected would be his extradition to Israel.  It appears too that if he had been extradited and imprisoned in Israel, this would’ve been doing the PA’s bidding as well, since it accuses him of fundraising and arms trafficking on behalf of Hamas.  It’s quite a cozy, comfy relationship all these mukhabaratnikim (there probably isn’t even such a Hebrew word, but I like the sound of it) have with each other.

In the case of Abusisi, the Mossad presumably alerted the Jordanian intelligence services to his travel from Gaza to Jordan.  When he arrived there he was questioned and detained for a number of days, which I believe allowed the Mossad to prepare for his kidnapping in Ukraine, which was the final stop on his travel itinerary.

It’s astonishing, considering the hostile relations much of the Arab world has with Israel, for intelligence agencies of these particular countries to do the Mossad’s bidding.

Israeli Film Depicts Iranian First-Strike Nuke Attack on Israel

Tuesday, January 31st, 2012


The Israeli power of delusion is evident in this short film called, The Last Day, which purports to film the last moments of an Israeli family before Iran drops a nuclear bomb on Israel and obliterates it. The film, created by Ronen Barany, is shot in faux-documentary style with lots of shots of Israelis in extremis including suitably shaky, off kilter camera angles proclaiming it a product of ersatz cinema verite.

While the computer enhanced graphics showing massive explosions in the Israeli hillside may shock Israelis used to viewing a relatively tranquil landscape, the boom-boom screams out “computer enhancement.” If this were still photography critics would call it a photoshopped reality. We’ll have to come up with another name for an altered reality via video.

It should go without saying (but I’ll say it nevertheless), that the film is even more interesting for what it leaves out than what it includes. It presumes a backstory which the viewer fills in (hence the power of effective propaganda) of a hegemonic power-mad Iran hell-bent on getting nukes and using them on its bitterest foe, Israel. The poor Israeli shlumps in this movie are of course the collateral damage of Iranian megalomania. They’re innocent victims. No reference to any role Israel itself may’ve played in this conflict. Israel is doing nothing but defending itself from pure evil.

This film is a perfect example of how an entire people can be anesthetized and transported into an altered state of reality that shows them to be innocent lambs led to the slaughter; when in fact they are just as much agents of their own destiny as their enemies are.

The fact that this film is pimped by a RP rep for 5W PR, Ronn Torossian’s agency (who also pimps the Clarion Fund anti-Muslim films along with porn stars and has been charged with extorting millions of dollars from the followers of an Israeli Sephardic wonder rabbi) tells you reams about the film’s subtext.

Israel’s Drone Crash and the Perils of Reporting on a National Security State

Monday, January 30th, 2012

Above is my latest appearance on Tzinor Layla (starting at around 2:30) in which I discuss the crash of the drone inside Israel two days ago.

I’ve spent the past day or so trying to make sense of the duelling stories of the crash. My Israeli source said that the unmanned aircraft was foreign, likely flown by Hezbollah with Iranian technical assistance from southern Lebanon. Shortly after I posted, the IAF released its version saying its own drone crashed while testing advanced sensors installed on its wing. Supposedly, the wing separated from the drone, and images of a severed wing were displayed in the media. Eyewitnesses were interviewed who claim to have seen the drone on fire before it crashed, though it’s not clear where they were physically located. Though the body of the drone was not pictured, it reportedly crashed into an air base (though the name wasn’t specified). My source claimed the booby trapped drone crashed and exploded at the top secret Sdot Micha missile base. The IAF claimed the drone crashed while making an approach to the Tel Nof base.

israeli drone crash

IAF claims this wing fell off its most advanced drone causing it to crash (Aviv Rokach)


I have approached journalists in Lebanon and Iran to confirm or rebut the report. In Lebanon, a source close to Hezbollah poured cold water on the story. I am still attempting to find out if Iranian officials wish to comment it.

For those who reject my story, let’s examine the IAF story. They claim that Israel’s most advanced drone, testing highly sophisticated new sensor systems simply lost its wing due to equipment and human error. Either this is a colossal episode of incompetence or the story doesn’t hold water. They showed a wing in an orange orchard and nothing else. I could not see any damage to the wing indicating it had dropped off a drone in flight and crashed. They offered no military or drone experts to verify what was shown in the footage. I would wonder why military and police personnel at the site would allow photography and video filming of some of Israel’s most advanced new technology. Even if they couldn’t prevent such filming they could easily impose military censorship on reporting the story. They didn’t. This is contrary to the absolute secrecy Israel imposes on its military technology.

So continuing with this line of thought, if Israel did lose one of its most advanced drones it is a major setback in this program. As news reports make clear, this drone is one that can reach Iran and would be used for multiple critical aerial tasks during an Israeli air assault on Iran. The fact that it crashed on a test flight only a few miles from its base, when Israel is known to be preparing for a possible strike against Iran, is a major failure. So again, even if you discount my version of events, the IAF has not presented a credible version either. Anyone who seeks to discredit the Hezbollah angle of this story should present a credible alternative. I have heard none from the other side.

The usual suspects on the right and left have criticized the story I reported. None of them very carefully read, understood or reported what I actually wrote. Dimi Reider, who prides himself on being a careful, sober journalist argued erroneously that I claimed the drone flew 1,000 miles from Iran to Israel, when in fact I argued just the opposite, saying it likely could not fly that far and originated in southern Lebanon. Reider also believed I was being “played” by Israeli sources seeking war against Iran. In fact, my source opposes war against Iran. All of which proves that someone who prides himself on precision can be guilty of the same errors of which he accuses me.

Dapha Baram, writing at the world news agency GRN, pointed with pride to the reasons why her news agency could not publish my reports because they fall below its standards of “journalist ethics.” She failed to understand that my decision to report or not report a story has nothing to do with ethics and everything to do with other factors including my physical distance from the story and sources I’m reporting, the vagaries of the Israeli national security state which intimidate the free flow of military information to journalists, and my role as an anti-war activist coinciding with my role as a blogger. In fact, the very reason why Israeli security issues are so thinly reported inside and outside Israel is that the system prevents mainstream journalists from doing this.

None of this means I can knowingly report stories that are false (nor would I ever do so). On the other hand, I am reporting stories that aren’t (and usually can’t be) corroborated by second or third independent sources. That in turn means that the mainstream media is too conservative and cautious to publish my original reporting. This may save them from reporting a story that turns out to be criticized or unsubstantiated; but it also causes them to lose out when I report major stories embarrassing to the Israeli military-intelligence community.  That’s why you’ll never see Reider or GRN breaking the story of Anat Kamm, Dirar Abusisi, Ameer Makhoul, the Eilat terror attacks, or Shamai Leibowitz.

My critics fundamentally misunderstand what I do. My primary job isn’t to be an oracular James Reston or Walter Cronkite and only report what is scientifically, verifiably true and be right 100% of the time. My primary job is to be right as often as I can while staying true to the reasons I write this blog in the first place: to promote transparency in Israeli military-intelligence matters, Israeli democracy, and to oppose military adventurism.  This is a tightrope act, one that is difficult to negotiate since there are so many unknowns, so much concealed information.

The goal of the national security state is to render its affairs as opaque as possible. It is to shut off information to journalists, bloggers and even its own citizens. That’s why it’s sometimes so damn hard to know if you got it right. But if anyone thinks I’m going to be deterred by the fact that every once in a while the I’s aren’t dotted or the T’s aren’t crossed or that even, God forbid, my source may get it wrong (which I do not concede in this instance), they’re sorely mistaken. I’ll accept the brickbats of Dimi Reider, Dapna Baram and others for the sake of the greater good of exposing the dangers a rampant Israel may pose to the region and the world.

Likely Hezbollah Drone Explodes at Secret Israeli Airbase

Sunday, January 29th, 2012
sdot micha airbase

Sdot Micha airbase

An exclusive report from a confidential highly-placed Israeli source says that a booby-trapped drone crashed and exploded at the top-secret Israeli airbase Sdot Micha.  Sdot Micha (also profiled here) is the home of the Israeli missile arsenal including its long-range Jerichos capable of striking Iran.  There were civilian and military eyewitnesses to the crash, which happened within the perimeter fence of the facility, which covers a large area just outside Bet Shemesh.

The eyewitnesses and Israel’s wish to avoid pressure to retaliate against the Iranians, necessitated the publication of a media cover story.  The story claims an advanced Israeli drone crashed near the Yesodot moshav, 10 miles from Sdot Micha.  Israel also claims the drone took off from Tel Nof airbase.  Eyewitnesses may be able to produce video documentation of the precise location of the crash unless it is impounded by the IDF.

The cover story reminds me in crucial ways of a similar one put out by the U.S. when it lost control of its advanced drone inside Iran.  It did everything in its power to make the world believe that the drone crashed by accident and we vehemently denied it was brought down by Iranian electronic warfare capability.  The more we denied the more people believed we were protesting too much.

Though crashing a drone inside Israel would appear to have Iran’s fingerprints all over it (they would certainly have greatest motivation), it’s hard to believe that Iran could fly a drone 1,000 miles with such precision.  So blame will inevitably fall upon Hezbollah, a Syrian-Iranian ally, which often procures its most advanced weaponry from Iran.  Hezbollah would’ve launched the drone from southern Lebanon.  But I find it unlikely it could master the technological know-how to bring this off without Iranian engineering assistance.

There were no Israeli casualties and the drone explosion caused no significant damage at the base.  But the very fact that Iran or its allies have escalated the psychological war of nerves in such a fashion will raise the temperature inside Israel once the true story is known.  It will confirm among the hawks like Bibi, Barak and Bogie Yaalon the imperative to attack Iran.  And the average Israeli man in the street will be that much more accepting of war given this new level of threat.  But the “beauty” (if such a phrase is appropriate) of a drone attack is that, like the Mossad assassination of nuclear scientists, it’s hard to figure out precisely who is to blame for the attack.  In that sense, it raises the temperature, but does so in a carefully calibrated way.

The fact that Israel could not detect such a threat and stop it before it did its damage indicates also some gaps in Israel’s defensive systems.  Admittedly, drones are hard to defend against and Iran/Hezbollah may not have many at their disposal.  But they clearly can do significant damage as we’ve seen from U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan.  Imagine a drone equipped with a warhead (the current one appeared only to be booby-trapped, but not equipped with a warhead or missile) taking aim at the Kirya?  That, of course, would be the next stage of development and one Israel might expect in the not too distant future.  Certainly, a far more sophisticated step than merely crashing a drone into an airbase.  But by no means beyond the realm of possibility for Iranian engineers at some point.

I have always argued that there is a price to pay for Israel’s black ops campaign against Iran.  In this case, the price was very low.  But it will not always be so.  There’s always a price to pay.  The only question is when you’ll have to pay and how much.

Israeli Intelligence Pimps Discredited Iranian ‘Dissident,’ Peddling Regime Change by Another Name

Sunday, January 29th, 2012


Accompanying the covert war between Iran and the west is a sideline industry consisting of all manner of spies, exiles, and others with mixed motives regarding this confrontation.  There are supposed Iranian dissidents who’ve escaped, made their way to the west, and been taken into the bosom of the neocon political and media world.  One of these is Amir Abbas Fakhravar.  To hear him tell it, he escaped from an Iranian jail with the help of Richard Perle, who whisked him off to America where he became the darling of the Cheney neocon apparatus.  To hear former jailed Iranian reformers tell it, he was a jailhouse snitch for the regime.

His primary message was promoting regime change, which is why he was so valuable to the hawks seeking to promote war against Iran. While in this country he made common cause with hawks like Michael Ledeen, did interviews with neocon media outlets like the National Review, The Telegraph, and New York Sun, and affiliated with some of the more extreme monarchists among the Iranian exile community. Presidents come and go, and with Barack Obama in power Fakhravar has had to recalibrate his political message.  He still favors regime change, but no longer advocates war (at least not publicly) to achieve this goal.  In an interview with Israeli TV during his first visit to that country, he said that the current round of draconian sanctions were his most favored approach, and not a military strike.

He made sure to tell his Israeli interviewer how much Iranians love Israel, even offered the audience a hearty Shabbat Shalom, and practically blew kisses their way.  You could practically hear all the Israeli Jewish mothers sighing and hoping their daughters might meet such a nice boy to bring home to mamma.  Fakhravar told the newscaster that the current regime governing Iran “is not Iranian.” Undoubtedly, this refers to a weird theory some in the opposition may have attempting to prove the ayatollahs are foreign alien elements imposed on Iran “through invasion.” We’ve seen this tactic of smearing “radical aliens” like Saul Alinksy used in the Republican primary campaign as well. This, unfortunately, is the level of delusion to which some like Fakhravar sink while taking their credulous Israeli viewers along with them.

Who arranged for his Israeli visit?  A slightly mysterious Israeli company, Laurus, founded by former members of the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office specializing in national security.  In other words, these are former Israeli security operatives now freelancing for themselves based on their prior contacts in the security apparatus.  All of which means that there are security interests in Israel eager to exploit Fakhravar for their purposes.  In the past in the U.S. those purposes included promoting regime change.  Today, in Israel those purposes are precisely the opposite, at least as far as his Israeli patrons are concerned.  He’s pimping for sanctions.  So the question is who’s paying his way?  I’d guess that it must be elements within the Mossad who are opposed to an Israeli attack. The other question is are the views he’s peddling to the Israeli media sincere or is he talking entirely differently to those he’s briefing in Israel behind closed doors? Frankly, I wouldn’t trust him as far as I can throw him.

Laura Rozen, back in the days when she was writing challenging reporting for Mother Jones about U.S. policy toward Iran, published an expose about him calling him the “Iranian Chalabi.” All I can say to Israel is caveat emptor. I don’t know what this guy is doing in Israel right now, but whatever it is he’s a fraud and any Israeli, even ones seeking to avert war, are being suckered either knowingly or unknowingly.

Last month, Yossi Melman wrote (this article strangely is no longer directly available on the Haaretz site, but is still accessible through Google cache) in Haaretz that Fakhravar’s December trip to Israel was cancelled because a former IDF officer now living in New York warned security associates he knew in Israel of the Iranian’s dubious past. The next thing I knew he was interviewed on Israeli TV last night.

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