Israel’s Hoax Lebanon Truce, Trump’s Desperation Iran Truce

Trump’s erratic pronouncements about Iran peace talks, including whether or not he will send envoys to Pakistan, indicates a weak, even desperate approach to the conflict.  Recently, he announced a ceasefire, Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz…then the US Navy promptly attacked an Iranian tanker, boarded and seized it.  This wrecked the entire negotiation process. Iran closed it again.  Now we are back, not at square 1, but square -1, since Iran, perceiving US weakness, has ratcheted up its demands and remained obdurate about compromise or concession.

The foremost military in the world led by the strongest (though perhaps most mentally-addled) leader in the world, couldn’t bring Iran to its knees; a country with a nominal air force and a navy consisting of a few warships (most of them sunk).  Yet Iran remains still standing, still defiant, still in control–both of the narrative and the field.

It has just proved that by seizing two ships trying to exit the Strait without obtaining Iranian authorization.  It has responded to the US Navy seizing an Iranian tanker by one-upping the Americans.  “You got one of ours. Now we’ve got two of yours.”  The Iranians have Trump’s number.

Despite Trump-Hegseth bluster about “obliterating” its military capabilities, it retains much of its armed force:

About half of Iran’s stockpile of ballistic missiles and its associated launch systems were still intact as of the start of the ceasefire in early April, three of the officials told CBS News.

Roughly 60% of the naval arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is still in existence, the officials said, including fast-attack speed boats. On Wednesday, Iranian gunboats attacked several commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz…

Iranian air power has been significantly degraded but not erased, said the officials…About two-thirds of Iran’s air force is still believed to be operational, the officials said, after an intensive U.S. and Israeli campaign that struck thousands of targets, including storage and production facilities.

We all knew Trump was a liar. Anyone who didn’t should have been disabused of that notion by his constant braggadocio regarding his glorious successes.  Not a word out of his mouth has been true.

It’s a wonder that the news media doesn’t put scare quotes around every statement he makes, since none will be truthful.  It raises an important journalistic question: how do you cover a story when you know the subject is lying, and in fact never tells the truth.  When lying is part of his brand.  There should be a disclaimer heading every story about him warning of his mendacity.  Why should journalists pretend Trump is a conventional subject. Why should they afford him the same level of presumed credibility as any other subject? How does he deserve it?

 

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While I have no love for its clerical regime, Iran’s strategy has been brilliant.  It has adapted the lessons of asymmetrical warfare to its own circumstances. It’s making the most of the few assets it has, and withstanding the punishment meted out by its adversaries.  The last man standing wins. And Iran aims to be last. Given how mercurial Trump has been and the plunge in his popularity rating, Iran is betting he’ll blink first.  It has every reason to think so.  It is fighting a battle for existence. While Trump is fighting a battle into which he was dragged by Bibi Netanyahu. A battle he thought would bathe him in glory. But which has dragged him through the Middle Eastern mud. Operation Epic Fury has become Epic Failure.

Yet another US president sucked into a foreign war he couldn’t win. A war that brings him to political ruin. Not to mention the loss of troops and treasure. Perhaps in the short term he could boast of his shallow victories. But in the end he lost. Everyone lost.

Trump called a ceasefire. When Iran didn’t accept his terms he threatened to destroy the country. He didn’t.  He couldn’t, but of course would never admit it.  Whenever a deadline loomed, he blinked, extending the ceasefire multiple times.  The Iranians are no fools.  They understand that Trump’s position is weak. He’s telegraphing that to him and they’re taking advantage of it.  And this is the guy who wrote The Art of the Deal?

This former senior USdiplimat puts things ever more starkly:

This is what surrender looks like,” wrote former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder in a blog post. “It was Trump who wanted a ceasefire, seeing that further escalation wasn’t bringing Iran around and fearing the economic and political fallout of continuing the war. If Trump now extends the ceasefire indefinitely, Iran is fine with that. Right now, all of the advantages are with Iran, not with Trump. The US president’s only card is restarting a war he doesn’t want. Meanwhile, Iran holds the rest of the cards.”

Most recently Trump extended the truce “indefinitely.”  Which means, essentially, that he’s tired of threatening an enemy who refuses to blink. Rather than embarrass himself with such constant pronouncements, he decided to punt. This of course resolved nothing.  Iran, which attacked three ships in the Strait yesterday, still controls it, while the US controls the Gulf out of which ships must exit into the open sea.  It’s a stand-off.  A frozen conflict.  Despite hundreds of billions (the US alone has spent $35-billion) in damage and military operations, Trump has nothing to show for it. The financial impact on global economies has been incalculable.

The war that was supposed to be over in days, or at most weeks–now is almost two months old; with little prospect of an end in sight; and with the November elections looming, promising a Republican massacre.  Trump has gone from being the undisputed King of the Party–demanding absolute loyalty on pain of banishment–to a wounded, doddering old King Lear.  Soon he will be bellowing to the winds about those former allies who betrayed him, along with Democrats who cheated him out of his rightful dominion.  It will be a classic American story akin to Huey Long , Joe “Red Scare” McCarthy, or Tammany’s Boss Tweed.  A corrupt, power-mad, ambitious politician felled by his own hubris.

Lebanon: the hoax truce

The news media is full of claims that there is a truce in Lebanon.  Trump ordered Israel to stop its merciless assault on the country with this social media post:

“Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!”

Apparently, the bombed out buildings and children wandering amidst the rubble were inconvenient images. So he issued a stop-work order.

But the Israelis offered their own interpretation of the ceasefire and dared anyone to challenge it.  The IDF has ceased annihilating Beirut. But it’s already done quite a thorough job of that.  It’s showing “restraint” by confining itself to the annihilation of virtually all the villages in southern Lebanon, and occupation of almost one-fifth of its territory. This making a mockery of the ceasefire. I’ve said here before: Israel never met a ceasefire it didn’t break.

The ceasefire follies reminds me of the Bob Dylan lyric adapted to current truce: “you can stop some of the killing some of the time, you can stop all of the killing some of time, but you can’t stop all of the killing all of the time.”

Yet Trump doesn’t make a peep.  This may have something to do with the breakdown in the Iran ceasefire, as he now has little motivation to satisfy Iranian demands that Israel cease attacks on its Hezbollah ally. Regardless, the annihilation in the south further tarnishes the president’s credibility, which is almost non-existent.

He’s also created a parallel track that circumvents Iran: so-called direct peace talks between Israel and Lebanon and mediated by the US in Washington DC.

In response to Hezbollah’s criticism of this act of normalization, Lebanese Pres. Aoun made a delusional speech claiming he and Lebanon are independent actors determining their own fate. Yet the truth is their fate is being determined by their enemies, Israel and the US.

How can Lebanon take the position that it will disarm Hezbollah, station its army in the south and regain all the territory Israel has usurped?  I can understand that this is what Aoun wants. But what he wants and what is realistic are two contradictory things.  Any politician who refuses to recognize what is, rather than what they want, will fail.  This is true with Trump as well as Aoun.

Israel and Lebanon are scheduled for their second round of  “peace talks.”  Aoun was supposed to represent his country, but got cold feet and is sending a senior diplomat instead.

How can you participate in negotiations with a party which is systematically annihilating a significant part of your country?  What can they have to say to you? Will they concede anything?  Offer anything?  What leverage do you have?  Instead, you will be dictated to by your enemies. You will not be an agent of your own destiny.

The only one for whom reality coincides with his wishes is Netanyahu.  He wants perpetual war. He got it. He wants to derail his corruption trial. He got it. He wants to destroy Iran. He got it (partially). He wants to destroy Hezbollah, he got it.  He wants to realize a grand plan to dominate the Middle East. He got that too.  But what he got for himself has inflicted immeasurable pain not only on Israel’s regional enemies, but on US interests, those of our regional allies, and the world itself.

This is Israel über alles.  The little state that could.  That always wins, always gets its way. That no one ever denies.  That ruthlessly exploits circumstances to promote its own interests. A state immersed in delusion and  criminality. But whom no one will oppose.  A state that could drag the entire world down to Sheol. Here, Isaiah warns of what threatens to become Israel’s– and the world’s–fate:

I will ascend above the tops of the clouds; I will make myself like the Most High.” But you will be brought down to Sheol, to the lowest depths of the Pit. Those who see you will stare; they will ponder your fate: “Is this the man who shook the earth and made the kingdoms tremble?  –Isaiah 14:15