As Biden Announces Shaky Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire, Israel Breaks It

NOTE: Jacobin Magazine just published my latest piece, Trump 2.0 Means More Pain in the Middle East.

Pres. Biden announced today that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire.  Correction: Israel and the Lebanese government–or whatever you’d choose to call it because it’s hardly a government–agreed to a ceasefire.  Hezbollah wasn’t part of the negotiations or agreement.  So tell me how this is a ceasefire? Who is ceasing to fire?

One of Israel’s leading public intellectuals, Ron Edelist, writes that the truce was critical for Israel’s war-fighting capability, which had been depleted due to a suspension of US weapons shipments:

Israel signed the agreement with Lebanon because of a US [weapons] embargo which withholds vital ammunition; and because of an erosion in the military reserves [increasing unwillingness of reservists to continue active duty service]. The stratagem [the ceasefire] to contain Hezbollah is bullshit.

The US says that Hezbollah’s closest ally, Iran, was apprised of the arrangements. Though that could mean pretty much anything.  Again, the US has no relations with Iran. So this communication too is rather shaky.  The US would have you believe that Iran is not standing in the way of the deal. If true, that could be promising. If not, well you know what that means.

Over the next 60 days, Hezbollah is supposed to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River.  The Lebanese army is supposed to occupy the southern Lebanese territory currently occupied by Israeli forces, which are to withdraw back to the Blue Line.

UPDATE: Israel has already broken the truce, attacking alleged Hezbollah targets:

The Lebanese army said Israel breached the accord multiple times over the past two days through “aerial violations and the targeting of Lebanese territories with various weapons,” according to a statement on X. Lebanon’s state news agency reported two people were wounded by Israeli gunfire in the border village of Markaba, located in an area Israel’s troops have been trying to prevent civilians from entering.

There have been no reports of Hezbollah attacks since the ceasefire began. That means Israel is again the party that fails to honor commitments it’s made.  Not that you will hear that from the our “Zionist” president, Joe Biden.  He only squawks about Hezbollah’s alleged violations and Hamas’ purported refusal to agree to a ceasefire (both false claims).

It remains doubtful that the parties will fulfill their obligations. The IDF will be tempted to retain Lebanese territory which had previously been a redoubt of Hezbollah. The latter will be reluctant to cede its Shia strongholds in the south.  And the Lebanese army is too weak to withstand the forces of either party.

Biden characteristically warned the Lebanese militia that if it attacked, Israel would respond in “self-defense.”  He offered no such warning to Israel, because whatever it does is right by Joe.  He has a spotty memory regarding the scores of ceasefires Israel has broken with Hamas and Hezbollah over the years.  It has never met a ceasefire it didn’t break.

The US president made this sweeping statement, which either he knows is an empty promise or is naive enough to believe his own words:

“This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities,” he added. “What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed, I emphasize, will not be allowed, to threaten the security of Israel ever again.”

Israel will never have true security as long as it remains a garrison state engaged in permanent wars with its neighbors.  There is nothing in this agreement that changes that.

He added this bit of cheer-leading on Israel’s behalf:

“Let’s be clear,” Mr. Biden said. “Israel did not launch this war. The Lebanese people did not seek that war either, nor did the United States.”

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He omits that Israel actually did launch a genocidal against Gaza. That is what initiated the conflict with Hezbollah.  That is why it fired on northern Israel, in defense of its Palestinian allies. The attempt to divide Hezbollah from “the Lebanese people” is also a standard false dichotomy, as the former is the most powerful political force in Lebanon and speaks on behalf of at least 40% of the population.

Biden made this chilling statement, calling on Israel to:

“Be bold in turning tactical gains against Iran and its proxies into a coherent strategy.”

He is lashing the US to the mast of this Israeli ship sailing into a hurricane. He is cheering on Israel’s bloodcurdling mayhem throughout the region. Cheering on the assassinations of Hezbollah leaders, Iranian scientists and military commanders, the missiles landing inside Iran, the eradication of entire neighborhoods of Beirut.  This is the president of the United States making common cause with a criminal state.  Since when do you ask a mob hit man to have a “coherent strategy?”

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The US has also touted another presumed benefit from the deal. They claim, based on no evidence whatsoever, that it will bring a potential ceasefire closer to fruition since Hamas will realize it no longer has a Lebanese ally to act in its defense. Hamas does not depend on anyone beyond itself. It understands it cannot count on outside parties to defend its homeland.

Netanyahu characteristically held out till the last minute to sign the deal.  He probably did so in order to squeeze the maximum benefits from any agreement.  Also, his far-right flank detests signing any deal short of exterminating Hezbollah.  They will not be happy with a cessation of hostilities, even temporary.  Though the prime minister may have mollified with an assurance that he will resume hostilities if necessary.

US negotiator Amos Hochstein was so disgusted with Bibi’s characteristic dithering, that he threatened to quit.  This apparently finally brought the latter to the table, after months of tortuous back-and-forth.

The agreement does not resolve any of the outstanding issues which started hostilities in the first place.  Israel remains an implacable enemy of Hezbollah. And though the Lebanese militia has lost its key senior leaders and commanders, it is by no means eliminated and will certainly rebuild its leadership cadre.  For example, it has been firing missiles into northern Israel even today, hours before the ceasefire is to begin.

Unfortunately, this agreement is unlikely to last.  Though the two sides maintained a tense status quo from the 2006 war through 2023, this equilibrium could easily be disrupted by Israeli attacks on Hezbollah’s Iranian patrons.

This continued instability suits Bibi Netanyahu’s political interests.  The more he can focus Israelis’ attention on external enemies the less they will focus on him. He knows his countrymen and women hate him.  He knows they will clamor to topple him in the next election.  The longer he can stave this off, the longer he can retain power.

Biden continues to pursue his pipe-dream of a grand agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations.  He retains hope that he can attain this crowning achievement as he reaches the ragged end to his presidency:

Even now, at this late hour, Mr. Biden said he might be able to nail down a deal to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia by providing American security commitments and civilian nuclear assistance to the kingdom and creating a credible pathway to a Palestinian state.

“I believe this agenda remains possible,” Mr. Biden said. “In my remaining time in office, I’ll work tirelessly to advance this vision for an integrated, secure and prosperous region, all of which strengthens America’s national security.” The chances seem remote, but if nothing else, he hopes he can set the table for the next administration to complete such a deal.

It’s hard to see why the Saudis would agree, given that Gaza remains in shambles, genocide proceeds apace, the West Bank is being ethnically cleansed, and there is no chance for a Palestinian state.  If the Saudis do sign such a deal they will be betraying all of their proclaimed goals regarding Palestine.

I am under no illusions about the depth of Saudi commitment.  It’s certainly possible it will betray the Palestinians in order to achieve interests that are more valuable to it than any commitment to Palestine. It must consider whether what it gets from the US in return for normalization (a US-Saudi mutual defense pact and nuclear reactor) more than balances out the derision it will engender by betraying the Palestinians.